Morning News: November 12, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on November 12th, 2024 at 7:05 am

Alibaba, JD Tout Singles’ Day Highs While China Economy Sags

Hong Kong’s Tycoons Are Selling Trophy Homes at Fire Sale Prices

South Korea State Think Tank Cuts Growth Forecasts

Gloomy Russia Billionaires See Little to Cheer in Trump’s Win

EU’s Kallas Backs Tapping Russian Assets Directly to Aid Kyiv

Europe Braces for Trump: ‘Worst Economic Nightmare Has Come True’

Europe Must Not Be ‘Unprepared’ For Trade War, ECB’s Rehn Says

A Guide to Trump’s Tariff Plans: Expect High Drama and a Bumpy Rollout

Trump’s Tariffs Could Deal a Blow to Mexico’s Car Factories

Powell Doesn’t Fear Trump. He Also Can’t Contain Him.

The Wall Street CEO Raising His Hand to Run Trump’s Economy

Bonuses Set to Grow Across Wall Street for First Time Since 2021

Bitcoin Nears $90,000 as Crypto Market Exceeds Pandemic-Era Peak

The 1928 Rally Was Just Like This One

SoftBank Back in Profit on Tech Investment Gains

Visa Teams Up with Affirm to Launch Card for Flexible Payments in US

Musk’s AI Nightmares Could Blunt Trump’s Tech Ambitions

OPEC Trims Demand Forecast for Fourth Straight Month

The World’s Best Hope to Beat Climate Change Is Vanishing

Shell Wins Appeal Against Landmark Carbon-Emissions Ruling

Exxon CEO Pushes Back on Trump’s Anti-Climate Change Agenda

Home Depot Raises Outlook as Hurricanes Spur Demand for Repairs

Tyson Forecasts Higher Earnings in 2025 on Chicken Turnaround

Shopify Surges After Third Quarter Revenue Beats Estimates

A Decade Into the Digitialization of Mobility, Winners and Losers Emerge

Airlines Hate ‘Skiplagging.’ Meet the Man Who Helps Travelers Pull It Off.

AstraZeneca Raises Outlook, Plans U.S. Investment

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Morning News: November 11, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on November 11th, 2024 at 7:05 am

ADB Increases Climate Finance After US, Japan Give World’s First Sovereign Guarantees

Trump Win Upends the Fight for Climate Cash at COP29

Trump Will Bury ESG, But It Was Already Dead

China Nears Record $1 Trillion Trade Surplus as Trump Returns

As Trump Threatens a Wider Trade War, the U.S. Confronts a Changed China

How Trump Divides Chinese Who Aspire to Democracy

Here’s What Trump’s Return Means for US Sanctions Policy

The White House Will Be Shedding Its Union Label

Mortgage Rates Fell, Then Rose. What Comes Next?

Trump Expected to Narrow Treasury Chief Options by Week’s End

If Trump Tries to Fire Powell, Fed Chair Is Ready for a Legal Fight

Bond Market on Risky Path as Traders Regroup From Wild Week

Bitcoin Soars Above $82,000 as Trump Win Boosts Crypto Prospects

Wall Street Math Wizards Are Decoding Private-Market Returns

Hedge-Funds Hit by ‘Arbageddon’ Sense Brighter Future After Trump Win

Hedge Funds Shorting Tesla Just Lost More Than $5 Billion

Carvana Delivers Agony and Ecstasy for Hedge Funds

Cathie Wood Predicts Trump’s White House Return Will Ignite Reagan-Era Economic Boom Through Deregulation And Tax Cuts: ‘Likely To Turbocharge The US Economy’

FTX Sues Binance, Ex-CEO Zhao Seeking $1.8 Billion Clawback

Harris Tech VC Boosters Seek the Industry Silver Lining in Her Loss

Adnoc Gas Expects Earnings Boost From Rising Gas Demand

Resolute Mining CEO, Two Other Employees Detained by Officials in Mali

Continental Posts Higher Profit as Cost Cuts Offset Sales Pressure

Talabat Eyes IPO That May Value It More Than Delivery Hero

A New Streaming Customer Emerges: the Subscription Pauser

Buying Shoes at Macy’s Isn’t Fun. Its New CEO Is Trying to Change That.

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Morning News: November 8, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on November 8th, 2024 at 7:04 am

Brazil Inflation Speeds Further Above Target as Rates Go Higher

Japan Finance Minister Issues Fresh Warning After Yen’s Tumble

EU Is Looking at Ramping Up Ukraine Aid If Trump Pulls the Plug

PBOC Signals Greater Resolve on Dovish Policy, Ample Liquidity

China Unveils $1.4 Trillion Debt Swap, Saves Stimulus for Trump

Investors Dial Back ‘Trump Trades’ as Policy Questions Remain

Trump Is Stuck With the Fed’s Powell. Will He Make Peace?

Forget a Soft Landing. The Fed’s Biggest Challenge May Be Trump.

Powell Signals Readiness to Defy Trump in Defense of Fed

What a Second Trump Term Could Mean for Your Money

Even at a Time Like This, Slow and Steady Works in the Stock Market

US Banks to Gain from Looser Capital, Merger Policies Under Trump

The Wall Street Leaders Who Could Play a Role in Trump’s New Administration

Trump Plans to Dismantle Biden’s Climate Law. It Won’t Be Easy

Trump’s ‘Drill, Baby, Drill’ Cuts Two Ways for Oil Companies

Why Trump Faces a Losing Tech War Against China

Big Tech’s Appetite to Resist Trump Appears Weaker This Time Around

Companies Brace for the Return of Trump’s Old Trade Gripes

Boeing CEO Says Furloughed Workers Will Be Paid for Lost Time

Tesla Begins Offering Cybertruck Leases Starting at $999 a Month

Amazon Is Looking to Revamp Its Grocery Delivery

Steven Madden C.E.O. Says It Is Moving Production Out of China

Trump’s Win Cemented It: New Media Is Leaving the Old Guard Behind

Audacious Bet on High-End Liquor Mints Indian Billionaire

Cartier Owner Richemont’s Sales Fall as Luxury’s China Woes Linger

Has Luxury Lost Its Shine?

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Morning News: November 7, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on November 7th, 2024 at 7:05 am

Bahamas Raises Alarm on Lack of Cash to Survive Fast-Warming World

Russian Central Bank Blames Labour Shortages, Not High Rates, for Investment Slowdown

Germany’s Looming Snap Vote Throws Wrench Into Energy Goals

German Trade Surplus Shrinks as Trump Tariffs Loom

Bank of England Cuts Interest Rates, but Warns of Sticky Inflation

Brazil’s Oil Production Expected to Disappoint

Xi Calls for Closer Ties With Malaysia on New Energy, AI

‘The King Is Back:’ Binance Billionaire CZ Plots Life After Prison

Trump Comeback Means Reckoning for China as It Draws Up Stimulus

Jerome Powell Is Back in Trump’s World and About to Feel the Heat

What Trump’s Win Means for Fed Independence

How the Trump Whale Correctly Called the Election

A Guns, Not Butter World Will Mean Higher Inflation

Why Trump’s Plan to Escalate Tariffs Has So Many Haters

JPMorgan CEO Dimon to Remain at Bank and Has No Plans to Join Trump Administration

Tech Giants Face a Familiar Uncertainty With Trump

Before the Election, Tech C.E.O.s Were Quietly Courting Trump

Trump-Musk Partnership Puts New Spin on Value of X

Canada Shuts TikTok’s Offices Over National Security Risks

Qualcomm, Arm Results Show Phone Industry Making Uneven Comeback

Wendy’s Bets on Palantir AI to Keep Up With $1 Frosty Demand

Warner Bros. Boosts Streaming Subscribers on International Push

1-800-Flowers Founder Says Speedy Election Call Saved Christmas

Nissan Plans 9,000 Job Cuts, Slashes Guidance After Loss

FedEx and UPS Locked in Price War to Lure Small Businesses

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Morning News: November 6, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on November 6th, 2024 at 7:04 am

Lighter Winds Boost Reliance on Gas Power in Europe

German Factory Orders Jump, Raising Hopes of End of Manufacturing Slump

Kenyan Leader’s Economic Adviser Cautions Against More IMF Aid

Malaysia Central Bank Keeps Policy Rate on Hold

What Links Have Trump and His Allies Maintained with Oil-Rich Gulf States?

Trump’s Populism Is Unleashed After Resounding White House Comeback

Trump Sequel Poised to Shake Up Global Energy Markets

Xi Is Better Prepared for Trump Even as 60% Tariffs Risk Chaos

Elon Musk Wins Big With Trump Bet

Stocks Jump After Trump Clinches Election Win

From Dollar to Stocks, Trump Trade Erupts Across Markets

Bitcoin Surges to Record as Crypto Investors Cheer Trump Win

Trump Team Revokes Election Party Access for Some Journalists

What Trump’s Win Means for the Economy

Fed Readies a Rate Cut and Faces These Four Questions

UniCredit Raises Profit, Distribution Outlook After Solid Quarter

Arm’s 90% Rally Shines Spotlight on High Multiple, Low Growth

Boeing Shows Why Squeezing Workers Is Reckless

US Mortgage Rates Rise Again, With Recent Jump Most in Two Years

College Is Actually Getting More Affordable

What Everyone Gets Wrong About Luxury Handbags

Toyota’s Bet on Hybrids Looks Even Better Under Trump

Startupbootcamp, Tycoon Plan $250 Million Africa Startup Fund

New Starbucks CEO Scouted Cafes Before Taking Over: What He’s Tackling First

Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy Weight-Loss Drug Sales Beat Forecast, Shares Jump

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CWS Market Review – November 5, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on November 5th, 2024 at 6:10 pm

(This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

Don’t Let Politics Interfere with Your Investing

It’s Election Day in America, and I’ll give you my biannual warning not to let politics cloud your investing judgement. I see this far too often.

Just because we may watch the market closely and debate what happens, and just because we follow politics closely and debate what happens doesn’t mean the market cares one wit about politics. It doesn’t. Thinking it does misunderstands how the market works and how the government works.

A simple lesson is to look at long-term stock charts and see if you can pinpoint election dates. You probably can’t. Or even better, try it on a country whose politics you may not be familiar with. See if you can spot when their elections were. It’s not so easy.

Yet too often, investors ignore the fundamentals of investing (have patience, don’t panic, exercise discipline), and they let their political beliefs interfere where they don’t belong.

I’ll give you two examples, and I’ll be bipartisan. In the wake of the 2016 election, Paul Krugman wrote, “If the question is when markets will recover, a first-pass answer is never.”

You may want to try a second pass, Paul. Boy, was he wrong. The markets did very well during the Trump years. Before Covid came along, the S&P 500 gained 60%, and Krugman is a Nobel Prize winner! He’s way smarter than me, and even he fell prey to the temptation of confusing his ballot with his portfolio.

Michael Boskin is another smart guy. He was chairman of George Bush’s Council of Economic Advisors. In March 2009, he penned an article in the Wall Street Journal titled “Obama’s Radicalism Is Killing the Dow.” The piece was published on almost the exact low. The market soared for years afterward. Boskin wasn’t just wrong – it’s hard to be wronger.

I don’t mean to poke fun at Krugman and Boskin. Quite the opposite. The question is, why do such intelligent people come to hold such poor investment opinions? The answer is that they let their emotions cloud their judgment. With investing, it’s always important to be unemotional and to focus on the important things.

The Economy Created 12,000 Jobs Last Month

Just before Election Day, we got some lousy jobs news. On Friday, the government said that only 12,000 net new jobs were created last month. That was far below Wall Street’s consensus estimate of 100,000. That’s the smallest monthly jobs gain in four years.

What happened? The hurricanes certainly played a role, as did the Boeing strike. The BLS estimates that the Boeing strike caused the loss of 44,000 jobs. Last month was a very unusual month. The BLS said that the response rate to its survey was the lowest in 30 years.

The details of the report are not encouraging. For example, the jobs numbers for August and September were revised lower by 112,000, and the manufacturing sector lost 46,000 jobs last month. It’s even more worrisome when you consider that most of the new jobs are in the government sector.

The unemployment rate held at 4.1% which matched expectations. The broader U-6 rate was 7.7%. There were some bright spots. Average hourly earnings rose by 0.4% which was above estimates. That’s good to see.

Here are some more details:

Health care and government again led job creation, respectively adding 52,000 and 40,000 positions. Several sectors, though, saw job losses.

In addition to the expected pullback in manufacturing, temporary help services saw a drop of 49,000. The category is sometimes seen as a proxy for underlying job strength and has seen a decline of 577,000 since March 2022, the BLS said.

Another leading sector, leisure and hospitality, saw a drop of 4,000, while retail trade and transportation and warehousing also reported modest declines.

Friday’s report probably didn’t shake the Fed off its policy path. The central bank meets again this week, and it’s almost certain that they’ll lower rates by 0.25% again. In fact, we can expect another rate cut next month. After that, things are a little cloudy. For 2025, traders see the Fed cutting rates another three times.

The next big test for Wall Street comes next Wednesday, November 13 when the government will release the October CPI report. The headline inflation rate has improved but I want to see a better number for the “core rate.” It’s too early to declare victory against inflation.

Nvidia Replaces Intel in the DJIA

There was another interesting market news item from last week. On Friday, the folks at Dow Jones said they’re kicking Intel (INTC) out of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nvidia (NVDA) will be taking its place. The switch will take place on November 8.

This is the kind of news item that isn’t so important in itself, but it confirms a long-term trend already in place. Shares of Nvidia are up 130% this year while Intel has been cut in half. The AI Revolution has finally come to the Dow.

The DJIA used to have a lot of heavy-industry stocks, but it has become more tech-focused in recent years. In February, they added Amazon to the DJIA. Apple, Microsoft and Cisco are already members. Being invited to join the Dow is Wall Street’s version of being a “made man.” It says you’ve arrived. Nvidia probably helped itself earlier this year when it announced a 10-for-1 split. The company just passed Apple to become the most valuable company in the world.

There’s an important distinction between the S&P 500 and the DJIA. The S&P 500 is weighted by market value, but the DJIA is price-weighted. To calculate the Dow, you simply add up all the share prices and adjust it by a divisor. Roughly speaking, every $1 in share price of a Dow stock works out to about 6.5 Dow points. Size doesn’t matter.

Why do people even pay attention to the Dow? I’m not sure. I guess that it’s been around since 1896. The S&P 500 is by far the better index, but it only goes back to 1957 when it was expanded to 500 stocks.

As Intel headed lower, it became a very minor portion of the DJIA. Intel is currently worth 130 points in an index near 42,000. What makes Intel interesting is that it was added to the Dow 25 years to the day earlier than the day its deletion was announced. In 1999, Intel was as hot as a stock could be. Not long before, CEO Andrew Grove made the cover of Time magazine.

Shortly after it was added, Intel strongly outperformed the DJIA, but that didn’t last long. In the last few years in particular, Intel (in black) badly lagged the index (in blue).

The index-keepers have made some bad calls in the past. In 1939, IBM was taken out of the index, and it wasn’t added back until 1979. Over those 40 years, IBM was a huge winner. The index would be much higher today if it weren’t for those missing four decades.

Changes to the index have become more common. Between 1939 and 1976, the Dow only made two rounds of changes to the index. In 1956, one stock was added, and one was deleted. In 1956, four were added and four deleted in 1959. That’s just five stocks in 37 years.

There were two changes to the Dow this time. Dow Inc. (DOW), the chemical company, will be replaced by Sherwin Williams (SHW), which was on our Buy List for many years. Apple’s market value is about 100 times that of Dow Inc. There are no more basic materials stocks left in the Dow. As the economy changes, so does the DJIA.

Buffett’s $325 Billion Cash Mountain

Warren Buffett just released the details of Berkshire Hathaway’s (BRK-A) financial position. At the end of September, Berkshire was sitting on a cash position of $325 billion.

That’s staggering. It’s up nearly $50 billion over Q2. That’s enough money to buy every single team in the NFL.

The reason Berkshire has so much cash is that Buffett has been selling recently. In particular, Buffett has been dumping shares of Apple (AAPL) and Bank of America (BAC).

Buffett has been gradually paring back his holdings of Apple. This was the fourth quarter in a row that he trimmed his stake. All told, Berkshire sold $36 billion of stock last quarter.

Interestingly, Buffett didn’t buy back any Berkshire shares last quarter. These moves could be a signal that Buffett thinks that market is too pricey, or perhaps just Berkshire. Buffett had been buying back lots of shares, and he said he’ll continue to if the price is below Berkshire’s intrinsic value.

Analyzing Berkshire’s business is difficult because it has businesses that it fully owns along with several minority holdings. According to the earnings report, earnings at Berkshire’s fully-owned businesses were down 6% from last year. That was less than what analysts had been expecting.

This could be a sign that the Oracle of Omaha thinks the market is simply too high.

That’s all for now. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

– Eddy

Morning News: November 5, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on November 5th, 2024 at 7:03 am

China’s Premier Li Projects Confidence in Economic Recovery

Nuclear Energy’s AI Boom Blew a Fuse—Here’s What Could Happen Next

Russia’s Oil Fleet and the Floating Armories That Help Keep Profits Flowing

Shale Turns Up Heat on OPEC as Big Oil Opens Its US Taps

Can the No. 1 Oil Producer Lead the Way on Climate? The US Is Trying It

Contraband Whiskey and a Secret Royal Dinner: Wall Street Goes to Riyadh

Trump Trades Step Into the Twilight Zone

Wall Street’s Great Election Trades Now Face the Moment of Truth

How the World Is Prepping for a Trump or Harris Victory

Cryptocurrency Markets, Promoted by Trump, Brace for Election Volatility

Trump and Harris Have Ignored a Looming Crisis

From Tariffs to EVs and Taxes: High Economic Stakes in the US Election

The Third Candidate in This Election Is the Economy

U.S. Farmers Brace for New Trump Trade Wars Amid Tariff Threats

Copycat ETFs Are Infiltrating a ‘Finders Keepers’ Tickers Market

Goldman Plans to Promote Biggest Partner Class of Solomon Era

Chips Industry Sees US Funding Hinge on Election

Boeing Ends Crippling Strike as Workers Accept Latest Offer

South Korea Fines Meta About $15 Million Over Collection of User Data

Wayfair Ups Promotions Without Taking a Big Financial Hit. Here’s How They Do It.

Uber’s Real Threat Isn’t From Robots

French Factories Falter as Europe’s Auto Industry Primes Major Layoffs

Ferrari Defies Wider Auto Industry Malaise With Higher Sales, Earnings

Meet Musk’s Fixer, the Powerful Executive Reshaping Tesla

KFC Owner Yum Brands Misses Wall Street’s Sales Estimate

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Morning News: November 4, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on November 4th, 2024 at 7:05 am

With Oil Prices Weak, OPEC+ Postpones Increases Again

Oil Gains as OPEC+ Further Delays Output Hike

China Isn’t Planning a ‘Bazooka’ Stimulus—at Least Not This Year

Foreclosures in China Soar, Threatening to Cut Off Bank Profits

America’s Free-Lunch Economy Is Over

A November Surprise is Jostling the Markets

‘Trump Trade’ Doubts Drag on Dollar, Boosting US Treasuries

On Telegram, a Violent Preview of What May Unfold on Election Day and After

All the President’s (Rich) Men

Fed Independence May Be Invisible Question on the Ballot Tuesday

The Two Things We Need From the Federal Reserve Right Now

Brookfield Turns on Credit Taps for Growth With $14 Billion Haul

Apollo Plans to Double Asia Pacific Headcount in Private Wealth

Blackstone Targest New European Markets in Global Wealth Push

LVMH’s Empty Chinese Megastore Signals Deepening Luxury Crash

Even Some High-Income Americans Can’t Afford New Cars Anymore

Buffett Keeps Cutting Apple Stake, With Value Down 60% This Year

Physical Intelligence, a Robot A.I. Specialist, Raises Millions From Bezos

Chinese Logistics Operators Are Getting Into U.S. Warehousing

In a Perfect World, We’d Eliminate Expense Reports. We’re Getting Closer.

Novo’s New Obesity Drug Is Targeting the Most Dramatic Weight Loss Yet

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Morning News: November 1, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on November 1st, 2024 at 7:04 am

Paralyzing Curbs on West Bank Complicate Path to Palestinian State

The US Is Squandering Its Hidden Advantage Over Xi Jinping

Big Tech Is Paving the Way for a Nuclear Breakthrough

Can Quake-Prone Japan Ever Embrace Nuclear Energy Again?

Evolution Mining Founder Isn’t Finished Yet

How to Include Investors in a National Climate Strategy

Pump Prices Tumble 20% in Key Swing States Ahead of Election

Oil Was Written Off. Now It’s the Most Productive US Industry

Exxon, Chevron Beat Estimates on Higher Permian Oil Production

Oil Interests Gave More Than $75 Million to Trump PACs, New Analysis Shows

Canada and Mexico Fear a More Protectionist America

Why Germany’s Resistance to an Italian Bank Takeover Is Raising Eyebrows

B. Riley to Sell Portion of Wealth-Management Unit to Stifel

Bitcoin Rally Masks Bleaker Picture in the Crypto World

Gold and Silver Prices Rise After Profit-Taking

Election Uncertainty Looms Over Hiring

Jobs Data Come as the Fed Stares Down a Complex Moment

Boeing Union Endorses Latest Offer to End Crippling Strike

Why There’s Hope for U.S. Factory Towns Laid Low by the ‘China Shock’

When the Price of Your Burrito Clashes With Your ‘Reference Price’

Brain Tech Is Here and Not as Creepy as You Think

Why a Memphis Community Is Fighting Elon Musk’s Supercomputer

Microsoft Picks Up the Pace of Spending But AI Demands More

Apple Sparks Concerns With Tepid Forecast, China Weakness

Amazon Reports Record $15.3 Billion Profit

What Nvidia Stock Investors Should Know About Meta Platforms’ Earnings

Reckitt Shares Surge After Baby Formula Lawsuit Win

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Morning News: October 31, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on October 31st, 2024 at 7:05 am

Historic Drought Upends Colombia’s Push to Quit Fossil Fuels

The Vaunted Consumption Story in the Fastest-Growing Major Economy Is Cracking

China Economy Picks Up on Stimulus Push Ahead of US Election

Gold Supported by Macro Risks, U.S. Election Uncertainty

Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk and the Billions of Ways to Influence an Election

23 Nobel Laureates Can’t Be Wrong About Trump

U.S. Election Chaos Would Endanger the Whole World

Election-Violence Risk Threatens US Dollar Dominance

The Next President Inherits a Remarkable Economy

Inflation Is Basically Back to Normal. Why Do Voters Still Feel Blah?

Surging Mortgage Rates Threaten US Housing Market Momentum

KKR’s $20 Billion Goal Tests Investor Appetite for Buyout Funds

Mizuho to Launch Saudi Arabia ETF With Sovereign Wealth Fund PIF

BIS Steps Back From Digital Payment Project Touted by Putin

Societe Generale Taps Sabadell’s Alvear as New CFO Amid Management Reshuffle

Big Tech Is Paving the Way for a Nuclear Breakthrough

Microsoft Shares Drop on Disappointing Cloud Growth Forecast

Meta Warns of Worsening AI Losses After Sales Narrowly Beat

Alexa’s New AI Brain Is Stuck in the Lab

Huawei Sales Rises 16% on Strong Demand for Its Phones and Chips

New York State Chosen as National Center for Chip Manufacturing Research

Inside the Winter Wonderland Where Walmart Hatches Its Holiday Plans

How Volkswagen Lost Its Way in China

Stellantis Says It Is Moving Quickly to Cut U.S. Inventories

Peloton Taps Ford Executive as CEO to Lead Turnaround Effort

Estée Lauder Pulls 2025 Guidance on China Uncertainty, New CEO

How Do You Get Kids to Read? Give Them Pizza.

Wendy’s Meal Deals, Humorous Offers Fail to Spark Growth

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