Morning News: May 2, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on May 2nd, 2024 at 7:07 am

Australia’s Trade Surplus Narrows as Households Defy High Rates

China’s Climate Envoy Has an Economic Case to Make in Washington

Biden Calls Ally Japan ‘Xenophobic’ Along With China, Russia

Japan Likely Spent About $23 Billion in Latest Yen Intervention

Powell Keeps Rate Cuts on Table But Leaves Timing Less Certain

You Can’t Call Jerome Powell a Big Teaser

What Will It Take for the Fed to Lower Rates?

In Jamie Dimon’s America, the Stock Market Has Already Voted

Wall Street Seizes Opportunity to Gut SEC Trading Surveillance

The State of Crypto Is Anything But Strong

Why Banks These Days Are So Excited About Being Boring

Blackstone Taps Vast Source of Cash in $1 Trillion Credit Push

NYSE-Parent ICE’s Profit Rises on Record Surge in Energy Market Volatility

Strongest U.S. Challenge to Big Tech’s Power Nears Climax in Google Trial

The Judge Deciding Google’s Fate

Why Megacorporations Shouldn’t Overestimate Their Monopoly Power

Musk’s Starlink Persists in Unauthorized Areas Despite Shutdown Warnings

Huawei Secretly Backs US Research, Awarding Millions in Prizes

Intel Bets $28 Billion Comeback on High=Tech US Chip Designs

BYD’s First-Quarter Story Is in The Margins

Apple’s Earnings Come With a Low Bar and Big Buyback Hopes

Shell Beats Forecasts on Gas-Trading Resilience; Launches $3.5 Billion Buyback

Moderna Posts Quarterly Sales Beat, Smaller Loss than Expected

Novo Nordisk Hikes Guidance as Weight-Loss Drug Sales Surge. Why the Stock’s Falling

Peloton CEO McCarthy to Step Down; Firm to Cut 15% of Workforce

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Morning News: May 1, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on May 1st, 2024 at 7:05 am

South Korea’s Export Growth Accelerated in April

Australia’s Manufacturing PMI Shows Signs of Recovery

Fed to Signal Delay of Interest-Rate Cuts

The Fed Won’t Climb Down Yet. Others Can’t Wait

Banks Rent Rivals’ Balance Sheets to Skirt Capital Rules

NYCB’s Results Are Better Than Worst Fears After Rocky Quarter

Wanted: Megabank Chief Willing to Work for Half Pay

Barclays Begins Implementing Job Cuts Across Investment Bank

He Lost $36 Billion in a Week. Now Bill Hwang Is Fighting to Avoid Prison

Binance Crypto Founder Zhao Sentenced to Four Months in Prison

Bulgarian Distrust of Russia Simmers Over a Black Sea Oil Terminal

Coal Is Proving to Be a Tough Habit to Kick

BP Bets Big, Again, On the Gulf of Mexico

A Yeast-Like Bacteria Can Cut Carbon Emissions While Creating Sustainable Aviation Fuel and Sneakers

How Sewage Is Helping Along the Energy Transition

China’s Electric Cars Keep Improving, a Worry for Rivals Elsewhere

Tesla Axes Supercharger Team in Blow to Broader EV Market

Will GM Regret Kicking Apple CarPlay off the Dashboard?

Elon Musk vs. Jeff Bezos Is America’s New Moon Race

The Ozempic Effect: How a Weight Loss Wonder Drug Gobbled Up an Entire Economy

CVS Tumbles as Rising Medical Costs Hit Profit Forecast

J&J Advances $6.475 Billion Settlement of Talc Cancer Lawsuits

AI Is Helping Automate One of the World’s Most Gruesome Jobs

KFC Owner’s Sales Fall for First Time Since 2020

Starbucks Posts First Sales Drop Since 2020 During Global Pullback

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CWS Market Review – April 30, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on April 30th, 2024 at 5:48 pm

(This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

T.S. Eliot famously wrote that “April is the cruelest month.” Well, this April wasn’t a very kind one for investors. (By the way, Eliot was a Lloyd’s Bank employee.)

The S&P 500 fell 1.6% today and it was down 4.2% for the month. This snapped the market’s five-month winning streak. The Dow had its worst month since September 2022. In retrospect, we had a charmed market from November through March. It was bound to come to an end.

As it turned out, the S&P 500 reached its closing peak on the final trading day for March, which was the day before Good Friday (Maundy Thursday, to be more precise).

The bulls have clearly been on the defensive this month, and I don’t think the coast is clear just yet. The S&P 500 is still below its 50-day moving average (the blue line). It may soon come up against its 200-day moving average (in green). These aren’t good omens.

Interestingly, defensive sectors like Consumer Staples and Healthcare have started leading the market recently. That comes after an extended period of lagging the market. Defensive sectors typically shine when investors get nervous, and that’s clearly what’s happening. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised to see defensive sectors start to the lead the market for several months. One of my favorite investing quotes comes from Michael Gayed: “There are no gurus, only cycles.”

It’s true. Consider a boring consumer stock like JM Smucker (SJM). It’s been running against the Magnificent 7 cycle for a long time. The jelly stock is currently going for 11 times next year’s earnings, and the dividend yields 3.7%. Smucker has increased its dividend for the last 26 years in a row. I get it. Smucker isn’t that exciting, but at some point, a company that owns Twinkies and Meow Mix has a certain future.

We’re in the middle of Q1 earnings season. The overall results are improving but this hasn’t been a terribly strong season for Wall Street. Q1 earnings growth is currently tracking at 3.4%. That’s kinda blah.

Shares of Starbucks (SBUX) got dinged after its earnings report fell short of expectations. It’s rare to see SBUX miss.

The only bright spot of this earnings season is that many companies are exceeding their very low expectations. Of the companies that have reported earnings so far, 78.8% have beaten their earnings estimates while 59.6% have beaten on revenue. Slightly more than half (52.7%) have beaten on revenue and earnings.

Financials stocks are providing a big help. Earnings growth for financials is currently running at 7.94%, but that’s up from 3.22% one month ago. Technology is another big winner. Earnings growth for that sector is running at 21.79%.

For Q1, the S&P 500 is expected to earn $54.50 per share. That’s the index-adjusted figure. For all of 2024, the index is expected to earn $240.74 per share. That’s up 9.78% over last year. That translates to a forward P/E Ratio of 21. That’s elevated but not extreme.

The Fed Will Continue to Hold Rates Steady

In addition to all the earnings reports, the Federal Reserve started its two-day meeting today. I’ll spoil the drama for you: the Fed won’t be making any changes to interest rates this meeting. According to the futures market, traders are placing a 99.5% chance that the Fed will leave interest rates alone. That seems low.

It will be interesting to hear what Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has to say about the economy and the path for inflation. I suspect that the Fed wants to cut rates, but the recent data isn’t cooperating. Powell said that the economic numbers have “clearly not given us greater confidence” that inflation is falling back to the Fed’s 2% range.

The conventional wisdom has shifted markedly this year. Not that long ago, it was widely assumed that the Fed would be cutting rates by now. Not only is the Fed not cutting, but it looks like the Fed won’t cut rates until September, and that could be the only rate cut this year. Tomorrow’s policy statement will be released at 2 p.m. ET.

It seems that it was relatively easy to get inflation to fall from 9% to 3% but getting it from 3% to 2% is proving to be quite difficult. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if the next move from the Fed is a rate hike.

We’re in an unusual period where the Fed has done nothing to interest rates, but that nothing has reflected a big change in the Fed’s outlook. The Fed has changed from expecting to cut rates soon to a wait-and-see stance.

Indeed, on Friday, we got more evidence that inflation continues to be stubborn. The Commerce Department released its PCE price data for March. This is important because it’s the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, but the downside is that the data appears much later than the CPI reports.

For March, the PCE price index increased by 0.3%. The core PCE increased by 0.3% as well. Over the last year, the headline PCE price index has increased by 2.7% which was 0.1% above expectations. The core PCE price index increased by 2.8% over last year, and that also was 0.1% above expectations.

The PCE report also showed that personal spending increased by 0.8% in March. Wall Street had been expecting an increase of 0.7%. Personal income increased by 0.5% which matched expectations. The savings rate dropped to 3.2%. That’s down 2% over the last year.

The other major economic report we got recently was last Thursday’s GDP report. That was our first look at Q1 GDP, and it wasn’t very good. For the first three months of this year, the U.S. economy grew at a 1.6% real annualized rate. That was below consensus for 2.4%.

In other words, inflation is running higher than expected and economic growth is lower than expected. It looks as if we’ve entered a period of stagflation.

Within the GDP report, I like to look at the level of consumer spending because that’s the key driver of the economy. For Q1, consumer spending increased by 2.5%. That’s down from the 3.3% rate for Q4. Wall Street had been expecting an increase of 3%. One hopeful sign is that residential investment jumped 13.9% for Q1. That was its largest gain in more than three years.

The next big test for the market comes this Friday with the April jobs report. The consensus on Wall Street is that the U.S. economy added 240,000 net new jobs last month. That’s down from 303,000 jobs added in March (although that number will be revised on Friday). The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 3.8%.

I’ll be paying close attention to the numbers for wages. Those numbers have been getting better, but inflation continues to take a sizeable bite out of so many wage increases. For Friday, Wall Street expects to see a gain in average hourly earnings of 0.3%. For the past 12 months, the expectation is that earnings increased by 4.0%.

Is the regional banking crisis still on? That’s a good question. My tentative answer is “probably not,” but we got a jolt on Friday when the Federales seized Philly-based Republic First Bank (FRBK). This was the first bank failure this year. Republic First is not to be confused with First Republic which went kablooey last year.

Two years ago, the bank was going for about $5 per share. Today it closed at one penny.

It’s important to stress that Republic First Bank was a relative small fry. They had $4 billion of deposits and $6 billion in assets.

It’s actually kind of cool how the FDIC seizes on a busted bank. They’ll shut the bank on a Friday, do a full accounting, then move to sell the bank as soon as possible. They’ll often offer a neighboring bank a sizable discount to take on all the deposits.

The winner this time was Fulton Bank (FULT) of Lancaster, PA. By Saturday, the FDIC got Republic First’s 32 branches to open under the Fulton name. On Monday, shares of Fulton gained 7.5%. This is nowhere close to Silicon Valley Bank or First Republic which had assets of more than $200 billion.

The problem with a banking crisis is that you don’t know what you don’t know. You’ll think Bank A is well protected only to learn that it was heavily exposed to a particular sector of the economy that’s cratering. A bank can be perfectly fine but once investors start demanding their deposits, it can quickly become not so fine.

That’s all for now. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

– Eddy

P.S. If you want more info on our ETF, you can check out the ETF’s website.

Morning News: April 30, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on April 30th, 2024 at 7:04 am

Asia’s Major Export Engines Show Signs of Strength

China’s Leaders Hint at New Plan to Fix Biggest Drag on Economy

Taiwan’s Economic Growth Beats Expectations in Strong Start to Year

BOJ Accounts Suggest Japan Intervened Monday to Support Yen

Europe’s Economic Laggards Have Become Its Leaders

Fed to Signal It Has Stomach to Keep Rates High for Longer

High Fed Rates Are Not Crushing Growth. Wealthier People Help Explain Why

The Fed’s Quantitative Easing Program Cost Too Much

Trump’s Plans for the Fed Make No Sense, Even for Him

HSBC CEO Quinn Unexpectedly Steps Down After Almost 5 Years

Binance and CZ’s Fortunes Are Set to Grow, Jail or no Jail

Google CEO Sundar Pichai Nears Billionaire Status Powered by AI Boom

PayPal Forecasts Decline in 2024 Profit Amid ‘Transition Year’

How Congress Is Trying to Fix Air Travel

U.S. to Require Automatic Emergency Braking on New Vehicles in 5 Years

European Carmakers Miss Forecasts in Sluggish Start to the Year

Hydrogen Offers Germany a Chance to Take a Lead in Green Energy

China Climate Chief to Visit US With Aim to Bolster Key Ties

America’s Troubled Offshore Wind Push May Yet Take Off

UnitedHealth Stock Sales Prompt Lawmakers to Call for SEC Probe

Walmart Closes Health Centers, Telehealth Unit Over Rising Costs

Walmart Takes On Trader Joe’s and Whole Foods With New Premium Brand

Coca-Cola Raises Outlook as Organic Revenue Beats Estimates

McDonald’s Pushes Value as Consumers Grow Skittish on Spending

Paramount Faces a Mountain of Questions

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Morning News: April 29, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on April 29th, 2024 at 7:06 am

Getir Quits US, Europe Markets After Pressure to Cut Losses

Wall Street Goes Long Lira in Optimism on Turkey Policy Reversal

How the US Is Trying to Counter China’s Trade ‘Coercion’

Yen Rebounds Strongly After First Slide Past 160 Since 1990

What 60,000 Headlines Say About the Fed’s Next Move

Even If the Fed Cuts, the Days of Ultralow Rates Are Over

Auditors Balk at Regulator’s Push to Expand Their Role

Fulton Financial Buys Failed Republic First Bank, Announces Stock Offering

Here’s How Immigration Will Boost the US Economy, From Strong Hiring to More Housing

Biden Strategy to Tame Gas Prices Is in Peril as Iran Sanctions Pressure Mounts

Shell Earns $1 Billion a Year from US Crude Trading, Court Filing Shows

In the Heart of a Global Methane Hotspot, Signs of Progress

BHP Mega Bid and $10,000 Copper Expose Mining’s Biggest Problem

Say Goodbye to Potatoes Being as Cheap as Chips

Rising Food Prices Send More Shoppers to Aldi

Friends From the Old Neighborhood Turn Rivals in Big Tech’s A.I. Race

A.I. Start-Ups Face a Rough Financial Reality Check

Apple’s iPad Hit by EU’s Digital Dominance Crackdown

France Moves to Rescue Atos as Former IT Crown Jewel Struggles to Stay Afloat

Musk Leaves China With Tesla Driving Software Hurdles Cleared

Who Gains from Elon Musk’s Visit to China?

How to Book a Rocket Ride: Advice From a Space Travel Agent

Executive Flights on Corporate Jets Worth Millions More Than Reported

Auto-Safety Regulator Notified of Two Ford Driver-Assistance System Incidents

A Billion-Dollar Hack Puts UnitedHealth’s Empire Under the Microscope

How Supplement Stores Are Trying to Tap Into the Ozempic Boom

Redstones, Ellison Seek to Appease Angry Paramount Investors

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Morning News: April 26, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on April 26th, 2024 at 7:04 am

Nigeria Plans a $10 Billion Diaspora Fund to Attract Dollar Inflows

Xi Warns Blinken Against ‘Vicious Competition’ Between US, China

Bank of Japan Holds Rates Steady, Expects Inflation to Stay Around 2%

Yen Swings With Traders on High Alert for Intervention

U.K. Consumers Get Spring in Step as Confidence Mounts

Global Equity Funds Face Fourth Week of Outflows Amid Dampened Fed Rate Cut Hopes

Investors Brace for 5% Treasury Yields as US Inflation Worries Mount

With Inflation This High, Nobody Knows What a Dollar Is Worth

Only Half of Global Rate Hikes Set to Be Taken Back by End-2025

Billionaire Stephen Ross Believes in South Florida—and Is Spending Big to Transform It

What Is a ‘Decent Wage’? France’s Michelin Raises a Debate

‘Net Neutrality’ Faces a Stiff Judicial Test

Why Are Shares of Intel Stock Crashing After Earnings?

A Chinese Firm Is America’s Favorite Drone Maker. Except in Washington

Rosenbush’s Take: Rubrik IPO Reflects Increasingly Difficult Path Startups Face to Going Public

Thoma Bravo to Buy U.K. AI Cybersecurity Company Darktrace for $5.3 Billion

Air Conditioning and AI Are Demanding More of the World’s Power—Renewables Can’t Keep Up

Apollo Global to Buy U.S. Silica in $1.85 Billion Deal

Anglo Rejects BHP Takeover Bid as Significantly Undervalued

Rising Copper Demand Spurs Search for Alternative Climate Solutions

Bonjour, New York? French Oil CEO Sees a Climate Path Out of Paris

Exxon, Chevron Fall After Disappointing First-Quarter Showings

Railroad CEO Isn’t Ruthless Enough for Investors After Toxic Crash

China to Pay Consumers Up to Nearly $1,400 to Replace Old Cars

Regulators Probing Tesla Recall Tied to Autopilot

Used-Car Sales Have Moved Online—Here’s Why Both Customers and Dealers Are Happy

Americans Went All-In on Self-Storage. That Demand Is Suddenly Cooling

The Long, Slow Death of Urban Nightlife

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Morning News: April 25, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on April 25th, 2024 at 7:05 am

How North Korea’s Man in the West Ran Afoul of US Authorities

South Korea’s Economy Posts Stronger-Than-Expected Growth

Blinken Raises US Concerns on Unfair Trade Practices in China

Ukraine Cuts Interest Rate Again After Securing Vital US Aid

How to Get a Meeting With the UAE’s $1.5 Trillion Man

BHP Makes $39 Billion Anglo Approach to Create Mining Giant

BHP Bid for Anglo American Set to Unleash Wave of Mining M&A

COP29 Climate Summit Countdown Starts With Finance at Forefront

German Consumer Confidence Reaches Two-Year High

America’s Economy Is No. 1. That Means Trouble

Lutnick Lands Wall Street Giants for His Futures Fight With CME

Goldman Sachs, BofA Shareholders Reject Proposals for CEO-Chair Split

Workers Are Celebrating a Ban on Noncompetes. Employers Are Ready to Fight

US White-Collar Job Growth Stalls, Even in Pandemic Boomtowns

Housing Will Get More Expensive Because of the Fed

‘To the Future’: Saudi Arabia Spends Big to Become an A.I. Superpower

Caught Between the US and China, a Powerful AI Upstart Chooses Sides

Zuckerberg Asks for Patience as Meta’s AI Push Spooks Investors

Microsoft, Alphabet Face a ‘Show Me’ Moment After Meta Misfire

Oracle’s Jump to Nashville Surprises Austin

LG Electronics Posts Profit Turnaround on Steady Revenue Growth

Room & Board Sets Up Employee Stock Ownership Plan, Giving Workers A Stake

American Airlines Sees Better-Than-Expected Profit This Quarter

Southwest Air Slows Growth as Boeing Trims Jet Deliveries

What Marketers Should Know About Ibotta, the Digital Promotions Company That Just Went Public

McKinsey Is Under Criminal Investigation for Its Opioid Work

With New Salt and Sugar Limits, School Cafeterias Are ‘Cringing’

What Do Weight Loss Drugs Mean for a Diet Industry Built on Eating Less and Exercising More?

Spanish Beauty Billionaires Seek IPO to Ward Off Succession Drama

How a Pirate-Clad Pastor Helped Ignite Trump Media’s Market Frenzy

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Morning News: April 24, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on April 24th, 2024 at 7:07 am

Climate Change Poses a Child Labor ‘Threat Multiplier’

Xi’s Armada Is Winning the Battle for Energy in the South China Sea

One of Europe’s Fastest-Growing Energy Companies Wants a Slice of the U.S. Offshore Wind Market

Gulf States Learn the Power and Limits of Petrodollar Persuasion

Chevron-Exxon Faceoff Hinges on Growth Ambitions

China Inc.’s Backers Are Brushing Off Trump Tariff Threats

China Central Bank Remarks Suggest Bond-Trading Liquidity Boost Not Imminent

Indonesia Central Bank Delivers Surprise Rate Hike as Rupiah Tumbles

High Borrowing Costs Have Some Democrats Urging Biden to Pressure the Fed

Russia Pushes Its Largest Private Bank to Redomicile at Home

UBS Flags ‘Serious’ Concern About New Swiss Capital Requirements

Jamie Dimon Has a Rival in Tech: Silicon Valley Bank

US Seeks 36 Months’ Jail for Binance Founder Zhao

US 30-Year Mortgage Rate Rises to Five-Month High of 7.24%

Florida’s Home Insurance Industry May Be Worse Than Anyone Realizes

TikTok Ban Looms With Biden Poised to Start 270-Day Countdown

Who Stands to Gain from a TikTok Ban

Meta’s A.I. Assistant Is Fun to Use, but It Can’t Be Trusted

Microsoft, Amazon AI Deals Get Deeper UK Antitrust Scrutiny

New Ban on Noncompetes Could Have Big Impact on Health Care

Pharma Startup Uses AI to Test Old Drugs to Treat Rare Diseases

Oracle is Moving Its World Headquarters to Nashville to Be Closer to Health-Care Industry

Airlines Must Now Pay Automatic Refunds for Canceled Flights

Wanted: An Executive to Repair Boeing

Boeing’s $3.9 Billion Cash Burn Adds Urgency to Revival Plan

China’s EV Price War Is Just Getting Started

Tesla Speeds Cheaper EV Plans, Calming Fears Over Strategy

Unilever India Misses Profit Estimate on Sluggish Demand

Prada Posts Higher Revenue Despite Luxury Slowdown

Kering’s Shares Fall on Lower Profitability Outlook

Studio Behind Dune Eyes Growth, Even Without a Paramount Merger

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CWS Market Review – April 23, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on April 23rd, 2024 at 8:21 pm

(This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

On Monday, the S&P 500 snapped a six-day losing streak. That was the market’s longest losing streak since Covid wrecked the markets four years ago. The S&P 500 closed today at its highest level in 11 days.

Ryan Detrick points out that the S&P 500 had a maximum drawdown of 5.5% this year, and historically, that’s small. Since 1980, the average maximum drawdown in a year is 14.2%. In other words, in a perfectly average year, you can expect the stock market, at some point, to be more than 14% off its high.

Tech stocks were particularly strong today, as were many industrials. The Russell 2000 Index of small caps also had a good day. That index tends to skew to domestic manufacturers. The Russell 2000 has led the broader market for the last four days in a row.

The stock market had a decent rebound yesterday and today. In fact, this was the largest two-day gain in two months, but I don’t think we’re in the clear just yet. The Federal Reserve continues to be stubborn about lowering interest rates. We may have to wait until September to get our first rate cut. After that, there may not be another rate cut until 2025. It’s hard to say for now because the outlook is very unclear.

Q1 Earnings Are Looking Weak

What is clear is that this earnings season is, so far, on the weak side. Q1 earnings growth is currently tracking at 0.43%. That’s down from 3.32% one month ago. Of those that have reported so far, 77.1% of companies have beaten their earnings estimates while 60% have beaten on revenues. Slightly more than half (52.9%) have beaten on both.

For the quarter, Wall Street expects the S&P 500 to earn $52.94 per share. That’s the index-adjusted number. For the entire year, analysts expect the S&P 500 to earn $239.66 per share. That would be an increase of 9.19% over last year. That translates to a forward price/earnings ratio of 21. That’s a bit rich, but it could probably be justified if Q2 and Q3 earnings prove to be good.

Earnings season is when the good stocks are rewarded and when the bad ones get punished. Globe Life (GL), a former Buy List stock, soared 11% after it reported reassuring earnings. The stock was clobbered after it was hit by short sellers. Shorting is a tough game. A successful short can make a lot in a short amount of time, but if you’re wrong, you can get squeezed out of your position.

Shares of General Motors (GM) rallied after the company beat earnings ($2.62 vs. $2.15) and guided higher. Tesla (TSLA) reported after today’s closing bell and the numbers weren’t so good. For Q1, Tesla earned 45 cents per share which was six cents less than estimates. Tesla had quarterly revenues of $21.3 billion which was $850 million below estimates. Shares of Tesla climbed 7% in the after-hours market but I suspect that was only a reaction to its poor performance in recent days.

Tesla isn’t alone. JetBlue (JBLU) dropped more than 19% after it lowered its revenue forecast. The airline has been slashing costs recently. Earlier this year, a judge blocked JetBlue’s $3.8 billion attempt to merge with Spirit Airlines.

Pepsi (PEP) which is a conservative stock, did not please traders. The company beat earnings ($1.61 vs. $1.52) and beat on revenues, but its Quaker Foods division performed poorly. The soda company lost 3% today.

Fiserv Rallies on Earnings Beat

On our Buy List, I was pleased to see Fiserv (FI) report very good results. Fiserv has been a member of our Buy List since the very beginning, 19 years ago.

I’ll have more details in our premium issue, but I wanted share some of the highlights of Fiserv’s quarter. For Q1, organic revenue rose 20% and earnings increased 19% to $1.88 per share. That was nine cents higher than Wall Street’s forecast. During the quarter, Fiserv bought back 10.2 million shares for $1.5 billion.

The company also raised its earnings guidance for this year from a range of $8.55 to $8.70 per share, to $8.60 to $8.75 per share. Fiserv continues to expect organic revenue growth of 15% to 17% this year.

“Fiserv remains committed to our virtuous cycle of investment, revenue growth, operating leverage, capital return and re-investment for further growth, reinforced with a focus on clients, operational excellence, and a strong balance sheet,” said Bisignano. “This proven model, along with our strong first quarter results, led us to raise our 2024 adjusted earnings per share outlook for the full year.”

Shares of Fiserv rallied 4.4% during today’s trading. At one point, FI was up over 7% today. Over the last six months, Fiserv is a 42% winner for us.

Here’s Fiserv’s CEO on CNBC earlier today:

Mueller Industries Has Become a Big Winner

Three years ago, I profiled Mueller Industries (MLI). The company is a leading manufacturer of copper, brass, aluminum and plastic products. This is a classic small-cap cyclical stock. Once you realize the scope of their business, you understand that the use of Mueller’s products is seemingly endless. Mueller makes everything from copper tubing and fittings to brass and copper alloy bars and refrigeration valves.

You can find Mueller most anywhere. Some of the companies that rely on Mueller are in sectors like plumbing, heating, air conditioning, refrigeration, appliance, medical, automotive, military and defense, marine and recreational. Mueller’s operations are located throughout the United States and in Canada, Mexico, Great Britain, South Korea, and China.

Best of all, Mueller is completely ignored by Wall Street. I used to say that no Wall Street analyst follows Mueller, but that’s no longer correct. It’s picked up one analyst. Tesla, in contrast, is followed by 36 analysts.

I wrote “Keep an eye on Mueller. This could be a big winner in the months ahead.” I should have listened to myself! Since then, shares of MLI are up 140%.

This morning, Mueller reported Q1 earnings of $1.38 per share, and the stock gained over 7% in today’s trading. Not bad for a brass company that no one follows.

While this week will be dominated by earnings news, I’ll be looking out for Thursday’s report on Q1 GDP. This could be the third strong report in a row. Right now, Wall Street expects Q1 GDP growth of 2.2% (that’s annualized and adjusted for inflation. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model expects growth of 2.9% which would be quite good.

The day after the GDP, the government will release the PCE price data which is what the Federal Reserve prefers to follow for inflation. For March, Wall Street expects that both headline and core PCE increased by 0.2%. If the number comes in soft, that could revive hopes of the Fed cutting rates sooner rather than after Labor Day.

That’s all for now. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

– Eddy

P.S. I was recently on Jim O’Shaughnessy’s “Infinite Loops” podcast. Jim is one of my favorite people, and I had a lot of fun. You can listen to the full episode here.

Morning News: April 23, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on April 23rd, 2024 at 7:04 am

Donors Stay Largely Silent Amid New Wave of Campus Protests

Oil Is Shedding Its Mideast Fear Premium Too Fast

Panama’s Rainy Season Signals Relief at Canal Bottleneck

Baltimore Says Owner of Ship that Hit Key Bridge Was Negligent

Bolivia’s Boom Has Turned to Bust, Fueling an Unlikely Presidential Comeback Bid

Russia Threatens to Intensify Strikes on Ukraine Over US Aid

BOJ’s Ueda Reiterates Possibility of Rate Hike if Inflation Rises as Expected

BOE Chief Economist Pill Says Key Rate Cut Is Some Way Off

Eurozone Growth Gap With U.S. Points to Central-Bank Divergence

ECB Will Consider Fed’s Progress When Deciding on Rate Cuts, De Guindos Says

Love That Strong Dollar. It May Not Last

A Hedge Fund Billionaire’s Cash Helped Fund a ‘Predatory’ Lender

In Silicon Valley, You Can Be Worth Billions and It’s Not Enough

‘Pay Later’ Lenders Have an Issue With Credit Bureaus

Inside Palantir’s AI Sales Secret Weapon: Software Boot Camp

Apple’s China iPhone Sales Dive 19% in Worst Quarter Since 2020

Tesla Stock in ‘No Man’s Land’ After 43% Rout Ahead of Earnings

GM Raises Profit Outlook for 2024 After Strong First-Quarter Earnings

Volkswagen Holds Keys to Porsche’s Race Against Ferrari

Jetblue Shares Tumble 10% After Airline Lowers 2024 Revenue Outlook

Trump Set for Another $1.3 Billion in Shares He Can’t Sell Yet

Spotify Swings to Profit Amid Boost in Paid Subscribers

Starbucks Leads Business Opposition to Pro-Worker Labor Board

Chinese Bubble Tea Maker Slides in Hong Kong’s Largest Listing This Year

F.T.C. Sues to Block $8.5 Billion Fashion Merger

Billionaire Pinaults Fight to Pull Gucci Off the Discount Rack

JD Sports Steps Up U.S. Push With $1.1 Billion Deal for Retailer Hibbett

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