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  • Morning News: December 6, 2023
    Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on December 6th, 2023 at 7:07 am

    Mongolia Seeks $11 Billion Green Finance to Reshape Its Economy

    How Russia Punched an $11 Billion Hole in the West’s Oil Sanctions

    The U.S. Gas Startup at the Center of an Epic Feud With Global Energy Giants

    Exxon Boosts Buybacks 14% as Hunt for More Oil Accelerates

    FTC Investigates Exxon’s $60 Billion Deal for Pioneer

    The U.S. Can Afford a Bigger Military. We Just Can’t Build It

    India Stock Value Tops $4 Trillion, Narrowing Gap With Hong Kong

    Trafigura Targeted by US and Swiss Prosecutors Over Corruption

    UK Watchdog Says Savers Lapping Up Higher Interest Rates at Banks

    Here Are the Rookie Mistakes Being Made by Millennial and Gen Z Investors

    Wall Street Donors Keep Wallets Closed as 2024 Race Heats Up

    Mortgage Refinance Demand Jumps 14% as Rates Fall to Lowest Point Since August

    Another Part of Commercial Real Estate Is in For a Reckoning

    How Nations Are Losing a Global Race to Tackle A.I.’s Harms

    SEC Head Warns Against ‘AI Washing,’ the High-Tech Version of ‘Greenwashing’

    Apple Set to Avoid EU Crackdown Over iMessage Service

    Tesla Suffers Fresh Legal Setback in Sweden Over License Plates

    Truck-Stop Billionaire Fights Warren Buffett to Increase $18 Billion Fortune

    P&G Bought Gillette 18 Years Ago. It’s Still Paying the Price

    Years After Monsanto Deal, Bayer’s Roundup Bills Keep Piling Up

    CVS Says It Will Change the Way Its Pharmacies Are Paid

    Can Wegovy Fight Alcoholism? For Big Pharma, This Isn’t a Priority

    Cigarette Giant BAT to Take $31.5 Billion Charge on U.S. Brands

    Obamas’ Vision for Hollywood Company: ‘This Isn’t Like Masterpiece Theater’

    Be sure to follow me on Twitter.

  • CWS Market Review – December 5, 2023
    Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on December 5th, 2023 at 6:32 pm

    (This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

    Coming Soon: The 2024 Buy List

    Before I begin, I have a special announcement. Circle your calendars for Monday, December 25, 2023.

    This year, December 25 is a very important day that millions of people look forward to. That’s the day I’ll unveil the 2024 Buy List. In honor of our new Buy List, the New York Stock Exchange will be closed that day. I’m deeply honored by this recognition.

    I always announce the new Buy List a few days before the end of the year so no one can claim I’m somehow messing with the pricing.

    I’m going to add five new stocks and sell six current stocks. We got an extra stock in the portfolio this year when Danaher spun off Veralto. We’ll bring the Buy List back down to its normal size of 25 stocks.

    The new Buy List will go into effect on January 2 which will be the first trading day of next year. For track record purposes, the “buy price” of each stock will be the closing price from December 29 which is the final day of trading for this year.

    All the stocks will be equally weighted based on the end of the year’s closing price. This will be the 19th year that I’ve made our Buy List public.

    Our ETF, the AdvisorShares Focused Equity ETF (CWS) is based off the Buy List, and we try to make the fund track our Buy List as close as we can.

    Speaking of our Buy List, yesterday we had a very good earnings report from Science Applications International (SAIC). The company is an important IT resource for the federal government, especially the Department of Defense.

    SAIC beat Wall Street’s earnings forecast by more than 30%. The company also raised its full-year guidance for the third time this year. Yesterday, the stock jumped more than 13% for us. I’ll have more details in this week’s premium newsletter. You can sign up for the premium letter here.

    Is the Labor Market Starting to Crack?

    On Friday, the S&P 500 closed at 4,594.63 which finally exceeded its high from July 31st.

    There’s some unusual symmetry at work. The first trading day in December surpassed the peak from the last day of trading in July. Now the next-highest peak came on the second-to-last day in March 2022. We’re still below the all-time peak which came on the first day of trading in 2022.

    This week is Jobs Week. Tomorrow, we’ll get the ADP private payroll report. Then on Thursday, the government will release the latest report on jobless claims. That leads us up to Friday when we’ll get the official jobs report for November.

    Until now, the labor market had been the solid base of the economy. As the housing market started to feel the heat of higher mortgage rates, we’ve still seen robust hiring. That may be changing.

    This morning, we got the JOLTS report for October. That stands for Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. According to the JOLTS report, job openings dropped to a 2-1/2 year low in October.

    The number of job openings fell by 617,000 to 8.72 million. That was below Wall Street’s expectations for 9.4 million. There are now 1.3 job openings for each available worker. Not that long ago, the ratio was 2-to-1.

    Interestingly, the “quits rate” didn’t change much. That’s an important number to watch because it’s a good barometer of how easy it is to change jobs. Or more precisely, how easy workers think it will be to change jobs.

    During the pandemic, the quits rate got to 3%. You probably remember a lot of talk of the Great Resignation. Now the quits rate is down to 2.3%. Workers have quit quitting.

    CNBC noted that “the biggest sector decline was education and health services (-238,000), followed by financial activities (-217,000), leisure and hospitality (-136,000), and retail (-102,000).”

    On Friday, the ISM Manufacturing Index came in at 46.7. Any number below 50 means that the factory sector of the economy is contracting. This was the 13th month in a row that the ISM was below 50. That’s the longest streak in more than 20 years. Generally, recessions have been aligned with ISM readings below 45.

    For Friday’s jobs report, Wall Street expects to see a gain of 190,000 net new jobs. That would be an increase over October’s sluggish gain of 150,000, but as important as any jobs gain is, I’ll be curious to see any wage gains. Unfortunately, inflation has taken a big bite out of wage gains.

    The unemployment rate for October was 3.9%. If the rate for November is 4.3% or higher, that would trigger the “Sahm Rule,” meaning that the U.S. economy would be in a recession.

    I discussed the Sahm Rule a few weeks ago. It’s a simple rule to see if the economy is in a recession or not. The Sahm Rule is easy to calculate. It says we’re in a recession when the rolling three-month average for unemployment is 0.5% or more higher than the rolling three-month low over the last 12 months.

    I doubt that unemployment will rise that much, but it’s not unthinkable. This news is taking a lot of heat off the Federal Reserve. The Fed meets again next week, and you can dismiss any idea that the Fed will hike interest rates. In fact, you can dismiss the idea for this week and the following meeting next month.

    Futures traders are indicating that there’s a 65% chance of the Fed slashing interest rates by 0.25% in March. A weak jobs report might increase those odds.

    I like to follow the Treasury yield curve and see what maturity is the highest-yielding one. These tend to go in cycles, from longest maturity to shortest and back again. This is a good way of spotting the peak in the interest-rate cycle.

    Lately, the highest-yielding maturity has been in the very near term. From late August through October, the highest-yielding maturity was the four-month Treasury. Then, through most of November, it was the two-month Treasury. For the last few days, it’s been the one-month Treasury. The current yield for the one-month bill is around 5.5%.

    Notice in this chart how the one-month Treasury (the black line) is now higher-yielding than both the one-year (blue) and five-year (green) notes. In fact, there’s a noticeably growing gap between the black and blue lines.

    That growing spread is the bond market’s way of telling the Fed to knock it off. The market currently thinks there’s a good chance that interest rates will be more than 1% lower by this time next year. That would be very good news for investors.

    Friday’s jobs report will tell us a lot. Next Tuesday, we’ll get the CPI data for November. There’s a good chance the S&P 500 will make a new all-time high before the end of the year.

    That’s all for now. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

    – Eddy

    P.S. If you want more info on our ETF, you can check out the ETF’s website.

  • Morning News: December 5, 2023
    Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on December 5th, 2023 at 7:05 am

    China Evergrande’s Crash Was Accelerated by Questionable Accounting

    Moody’s Cuts China Credit Outlook to Negative on Rising Debt

    European Countries Differ Over Windfall Taxes on Banks

    U.S. Export Controls Need to ‘Change Constantly’ Even If It’s Tough for Businesses, Secretary Raimondo Says

    Did Markets Go Too Far, Too Fast Is Debate to Dominate December

    Apollo CEO Says It’s Getting Harder to Beat Public Markets

    US Examined Hindenburg Allegations Before Giving Loan to Adani

    The Supreme Court Battle That Could Rewrite the Tax Code

    The Pentagon Wants to Root Out Shoddy Drugs. The FDA Is In Its Way

    Nurse Shortages Are Set to Get Even Worse With Mass US Visa Delays

    Signs of a Weakening Job Market, in Five Charts

    Spotify’s Layoff Memo and the Art of Delivering Bad News

    Meta, IBM Create Industrywide AI Alliance to Share Technology

    The Heat Rises at COP28

    It Could Be a Vast Source of Clean Energy, Buried Deep Underground

    A Pipeline Giant Is Helping to Push Texas’s Power Grid to the Brink

    Can This Startup Revive Soviet-Era Hydrofoil Tech?

    Tesla Risks Car Shipments to Sweden Blocked Across Nordic Region

    TuSimple Winds Down U.S. Operations as It Looks for Buyer

    Yellow Rivals Scoop Up Truck Terminals in Bankruptcy Auction

    The Rise of Temu’s Chinese Parent Will Reshape E-Commerce

    Podcast Companies Begin to Advertise Like Hollywood Studios

    Be sure to follow me on Twitter.

  • Morning News: December 4, 2023
    Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on December 4th, 2023 at 7:04 am

    How Suspects Laundered Billions in Singapore for Years

    World’s Most Indebted Developer Evergrande Wins Breathing Room

    China Rips US for Seeing It as ‘Enemy’ After Raimondo Remarks

    Why More Chinese Are Risking Danger in Southern Border Crossings to U.S.

    Here’s How to Invest in Gold as It Hits an All-Time High

    Bitcoin Surges Past $42,000 as Crypto Rally Gathers Steam

    Bull Market in View After S&P 500 Hits Fresh Year-High

    Goods Deflation Is Back. It Could Speed Inflation’s Return to 2%

    Why Biden Touts Jobs When Americans Care About Prices

    The IRS Froze a Big Tax Credit. It Didn’t Stop All the Money From Flowing

    Billionaire Tax Rests on a Disputed $14,729 Refund at the Supreme Court

    Nobody Wants to Be a Bank Examiner Anymore

    Alaska Air Agrees to Buy Hawaiian in $1.9 Billion Deal

    Ego, Fear and Money: How the A.I. Fuse Was Lit

    Why Doctors and Pharmacists Are in Revolt

    Supreme Court to Hear Challenge to Controversial Purdue Pharma Deal

    Ozempic and a Protein Shake: Food Makers Prep Weight-Loss-Drug Side Dishes

    Elliott’s Push at Phillips 66 Looks Familiar

    Spotify to Cut 1,500 Jobs After Spending Spree

    Virgin Galactic Shares Plunge in Premarket After Branson Rules Out Further Investment

    CEOs Try to Beat Their Rivals in Softness and Cuddle-ability

    Global Advertising Growth Is Expected to Slow in 2024, Excluding Elections Spending

    Be sure to follow me on Twitter.

  • Morning News: December 1, 2023
    Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on December 1st, 2023 at 7:03 am

    Oil’s Wild Ride Is Driven by a Disruptive Band of Bot Traders

    Climate Protesters Get in Fed’s Face as Policy Clash Grows Louder

    European Banks Stuck in Trough Amid Profit Concern, Goldman Says

    Fears of a New World War Prey on Hedge Fund Titans and Policymakers Alike

    Wall Street Seeks to Rally Americans to Fight Against Bank Rules

    Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes Are Probably Over, but Officials Are Reluctant to Say So

    A Grad-School Number-Cruncher Shakes Up the World of Bond Quants

    A $6 Billion Settlement Threatens to Upend US Bankruptcy Deals

    Binance’s VIP Traders Got Sneak Peek of Record US Crypto Penalty

    Microsoft Is Happy Being the Co-Pilot on the OpenAI Rocket Ship

    Yaccarino’s Memo to X Staff Calls Musk ‘Candid and Profound’

    Advertisers Say They Do Not Plan to Return to X After Musk’s Comments

    Alibaba Gets Rare Wall Street Downgrade as Rival Gains Traction

    Judge Halts TikTok Ban in Montana

    Nelson Peltz Launches Fresh Proxy Fight Against Disney

    With Offices Sitting Empty, Landlords Are ‘Handing Back the Keys’

    Airbnb Is Conquering Italy. One City Is Fighting Back

    Is the Holiday Shopping Season Going to Be a Success? The Answer Is Murky

    Americans Are Finally Turning Frugal After Splurging Over Summer

    Neiman Marcus Rejects $3 Billion Takeover Bid by Saks

    Be sure to follow me on Twitter.

  • Morning News: November 30, 2023
    Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on November 30th, 2023 at 7:07 am

    UN Declares 2023 Hottest Year Ever as Crucial COP28 Summit Starts

    Why No One Wants to Pay for the Green Transition

    Global and Business Leaders Face Questions at New York Times Forum

    China Investment Bank Bans Displays of Wealth

    Turkey Seeks Gulf Cash for $20 Billion Bet on Transit Trade

    Eurozone Inflation Falls Faster Than Expected

    Robinhood Opens in Britain with Low-Cost US Trading to Woo Clients

    Biggest Blowout in Bonds Since the 1980s Sparks Everything Rally

    Goldilocks Meets Santa as Global Stocks Power to Best Month in Three Years

    CFOs See Ongoing Pain From Foreign Exchange Oscillations

    Banking Escapees Make Billions From Private Credit Boom

    Consumers Likely Pulled Back Spending in October

    Inside the Battle for OpenAI’s Soul

    Big Companies Find a Way to Identify A.I. Data They Can Trust

    AbbVie to Buy ImmunoGen for More Than $10 Billion

    Cigna-Humana Merger Is Likely to Face Antitrust Challenge

    Tata Tech Adds Billions to Market Capitalization in Indian Trading Debut

    U.A.W. Announces Drive to Organize Nonunion Plants

    Ford Lost $1.7 Billion in Profits from UAW Strike

    Pickup or Lunar Lander? Tesla’s Cybertruck Enters a Crowded Market

    Red Lobster’s Popular Endless Shrimp Deal Ate Into Its Profits

    Be sure to follow me on Twitter.

  • Morning News: November 29, 2023
    Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on November 29th, 2023 at 8:06 am

    Welcome to COP28, the U.N. Climate Conference Hosted by an Oil Giant

    Saudi Arabia to Host World Expo 2030, in Victory for Crown Prince

    House Prepares to Drop China Investment Curbs From Defense Bill

    In a Shaky Oil Market, OPEC Has Bitter Decisions to Make

    A $30 Billion Rout Shows Toll of Fed Hikes on Biden Energy Goals

    The $7 Trillion ETF Boom Gets Blamed Again for Dumb Stock Moves

    Bill Ackman Bets Fed Will Cut Interest Rates as Soon as First Quarter

    Corporate America Has Dodged the Damage of High Rates. For Now

    American Black Friday Sales Signal Tough Holidays for Retailers

    The Chicken Tycoons vs. the Antitrust Hawks

    KKR to Pay $2.7 Billion for the Rest of Insurer Global Atlantic

    OpenAI Director Who Helped Oust Altman Now Key Player in Startup’s Future

    U.S. Debates How Much to Sever Electric Car Industry’s Ties to China

    G.M. to Cut Spending on Cruise Self-Driving Unit

    GM Plans $10 Billion Stock Buyback in Bid to Assuage Investors

    Toyota Plans to Reduce Stake in Top Auto-Parts Supplier Denso

    Rakuten’s Mobile Misadventure: From Ambitious Plan to Millstone

    Disney’s Failing ‘Wish’ Shows Iger Also Has a Princess Problem

    After Year of ‘Fixing Things,’ Bob Iger Tells Disney Employees His Plans to Reshape the Company for the Future

    Chemours, DuPont, Corteva to Pay $110 Million in Settlement Agreement with State of Ohio

    A Master of One-Liners: Munger on Politics, Life and Crypto

    Signa Files Insolvency as Cash Crunch Fells Luxury Empire

    This 3-Year Cruise Around the World is Called Off, Leaving Passengers in the Lurch

    Be sure to follow me on Twitter.

  • CWS Market Review – November 28, 2023
    Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on November 28th, 2023 at 6:22 pm

    (This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

    RIP: Charlie Munger

    As I was preparing today’s newsletter, I got the news that Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett’s long-time partner, had died just a few weeks before his 100th birthday.

    I don’t have enough time to offer a tribute, but I wanted to share with you some of my favorite Mungerisms:

    “Someone will always be getting richer faster than you. This is not a tragedy.”

    “People calculate too much and think too little.”

    “99% of the troubles that threaten our civilization come from too optimistic accounting.”

    “Knowing what you don’t know is more useful than being brilliant.”

    “Investing is where you find a few great companies and then sit on your ass.”

    “A lot of people with high IQs are terrible investors because they’ve got terrible temperaments.”

    “It’s waiting that helps you as an investor, and a lot of people just can’t stand to wait.”

    “Necessity never made a good bargain.”

    “It is remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent.”

    Rest in peace, Charlie.

    A Great Month for Stocks

    This has been a very good month for stocks. Unless something major happens later this week, November will go down as one of the best months for the S&P 500 in years.

    I’m also pleased to see that our Buy List has outpaced the market on the way up. So far this month, the S&P 500 has gained 8.6% while the Buy List is up 10.6%.

    The reason for the rally is quite simple. Investors have been convinced that the Fed is done, or just about done, with its rate hikes. One of the oddities we’re seeing is that there’s a pronounced gap between the Fed’s tough-sounding rhetoric and the market’s expectations. Even today, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said that more rate hikes are needed. I’m not so sure she’ll get her way.

    The market loves lower interest rates and that appears to be what it will get. The Fed meets again in two weeks and it’s highly unlikely that the FOMC will hike rates. Futures traders see about a one-in-three chance of a rate cut by March.

    I’ll give you an example of how much the market loves low interest rates. I ran a test. I took all the data for the S&P 500 and the three-month Treasury yield over the last 18 months.

    I then separated the data into three buckets: days when the three-month Treasury yield fell, days when it increased and days when it stayed flat. Then I looked at how the S&P 500 performed on those days.

    On days when the three-month yield increased, the S&P 500 fell at an annualized rate of 7.63%. When the yield was unchanged, so were stocks. The S&P 500 rose at an annualized rate of 0.06%. But when the three-month yield fell, the S&P 500 rose at an annualized rate of 41.4%. Falling rates are the fuel of a stock rally.

    The good news is that inflation has abated in recent months, but the Fed wants to be clear that it won’t stop hiking until inflation gets back to its target of 2%. This could be a mistake.

    I think it’s more important that the trend of inflation heads lower rather than hitting some arbitrary target. Bear in mind that the price for gasoline has fallen for 60 days in a row. At some point, the Fed will have to give in and admit victory.

    Lately, we’ve also seen a rally in long-term bonds. I’m somewhat hesitant to highlight a drop in long-term yields because it comes after a dramatic rise in yields. The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose from 3.3% in April to 5% in September. It’s back down to about 4.3%.

    There are emerging signs that the economy is on shaky ground. The consumer was spending money feverishly this summer, but that’s faded away.

    Worst Year for Home Sales in 30 Years

    The housing market, in particular, is quite weak. Existing-home sales in the U.S. are on pace for their worst year in three decades. This is the impact of higher mortgage rates. On Monday, the government said that new-home sales fell 5.6% in October.

    That was below expectations. Wall Street had been expecting an annualized rate of 723,000 new homes sold. Instead, it was just 679,000.

    What’s happening is that so many people locked into mortgages at very low rates. That means that now they’re reluctant to take on new higher-yielding mortgages.

    The Fed has thrown a deadly right hook at inflation, and it hit the housing market square in the face. Mortgage rates peaked in October and have started to come down along with Treasury yields.

    Tomorrow, the government will revise its report on Q3 GDP growth. The initial report said that the U.S. economy grew in real annualized terms of 4.9% during the third quarter. That was the best quarter for economic growth since Q4 of 2021. Consumer spending greatly helped the economy during Q3.

    Wall Street is starting to turn its attention to Q4. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model says that the economy will grow at a 2.1% rate in Q4.

    Broadridge Financial Hits New High

    As I mentioned before, our Buy List has been acting well lately. I wanted to share with you one of our better-performing stocks which has been Broadridge Financial Solutions (BR).

    This is actually a follow-up because I mentioned Broadridge in August 2022 in our free newsletter. At the time, the company had just reported very good results and it had been highlighted in Barron’s. This is part of what the magazine had to say:

    Broadridge has been a steady stock for rocky times. That is thanks to a model heavy on recurring-revenue businesses and exposure to long-term trends that should remain in place no matter the near-term path of the economy or interest rates. Broadridge stock’s recent rally could cap gains in the near term, but the company’s long-term positive trajectory remains intact.

    The company has a near monopoly in the business of managing and distributing investor communications for practically every public company in the U.S., plus mutual funds, exchange-traded funds, and more. That includes proxies, regulatory disclosures, and other reports and filings required of all U.S. securities issuers. Those are non-discretionary communications that companies and funds need to distribute no matter what the world is doing. That segment tends to grow at the pace of overall stockholdings in the U.S., with Broadridge able to eke out higher profit margins thanks to a continuing shift from printed documents delivered by mail to digital investor communications.

    Broadridge also has a smaller but faster-growing segment focused on back-office functions for asset managers, investment banks and broker-dealers. Those include trade processing and settlement, record-keeping, and a variety of other compliance or regulatory functions. That is a software-as-a-service business that has expanded through a combination of organic growth and Broadridge buying companies with adjacent or complementary software and services.

    The only thing better than a monopoly is a near-monopoly. It gets less attention from the authorities. The important point that Barron’s covers is Broadridge’s recurring revenue. That’s a great quality for a business to have.

    I like looking at BR’s stock chart because you can tell when its earnings report comes out:

    Earlier this month, Broadridge reported another strong quarter. For its fiscal Q1, BR earned $1.09 per share. That’s up 30% from a year ago, and it was 12 cents higher than expectations. Total revenues increased 12% to $1.431 billion, and recurring-revenue growth was up by 8%. Last quarter, BR bought back $150 million of its shares.

    I’m glad to see that Broadridge is standing by its previous guidance. That calls for recurring-revenue growth of 6% to 9%, and EPS growth of 8% to 12%. The latter works out to a range of $7.57 to $7.85 per share. BR should have little trouble reaching that.

    In August, Broadridge raised its annual dividend by 10% to $3.20 per share. The company has now raised its dividend in all 12 years since it went public, and 11 of those increases were by double digits.

    The stock hit another 52-week high on Tuesday. We now have a 40.6% gain in Broadridge this year. Broadridge is a good example of a business that’s not well-known but has a strong, durable moat.

    That’s all for now. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

    – Eddy

    P.S. If you want more info on our ETF, you can check out the ETF’s website.

  • Morning News: November 28, 2023
    Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on November 28th, 2023 at 7:05 am

    China’s Property Lifeline Exposes Banks to Big Losses, Job Cuts

    The Hong Kong Judge Who Puts Fear Into China’s Deadbeat Builders

    Gold Bars and Tokyo Apartments: How Money Is Flowing Out of China

    European Fund Giant Amundi Dips Toe Back into Turkey’s Lira

    Biggest Climate Talks Ever Confront Global Chaos and Record Heat

    BlackRock Sees Bank Reforms Freeing $4 Trillion in Climate Funding

    Vietnam Relied on Environmentalists to Secure Billions. Then It Jailed Them

    A Psychedelics Boom Is Minting Environmentalists

    UBS Chair Kelleher Warns Bubble Is Forming in Private Credit

    Ex-Hedge Fund Boss Fights SEC at Supreme Court With Big Backers

    Goldman CEO Says Proposed Bank Rules Could Impact Airfares, Pensions

    In the Age of Public Salary-Range Listings, Some Jobseekers Feel Duped

    Inside U.S. Efforts to Untangle an A.I. Giant’s Ties to China

    Chinese Sales Swamp Competition in Soaring Mexican Car Market

    Musk’s Cybertruck Is Already a Production Nightmare for Tesla

    Tesla Sues Swedish Transport Agency in Dispute Over License Plates

    New Bidder Aims to Save Bankrupt Trucking Firm, if Treasury Goes Along

    Fashion Retailer Shein Files Confidentially for US IPO

    Shein Still Needs to Prove It’s a Bargain

    Advertising Is Dead. Long Live Advertising

    U.S. Whiskey Is ‘Collateral Damage’ in Trans-Atlantic Trade Fight

    Be sure to follow me on Twitter.

  • Morning News: November 27, 2023
    Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on November 27th, 2023 at 7:02 am

    Behind Tesla’s Challenges in Making the Cybertruck: Ultrahard Stainless Steel

    Global Automakers Turn to China for EV Lessons

    China’s Remote Deserts Are Hiding an Energy Revolution

    Origin Energy Bidder Doesn’t Know How Much Largest Shareholder Wants

    President Biden Plans to Skip COP28 Climate Summit in Dubai

    Now for Some Good News About Climate

    Javier Milei Needn’t ‘Dollarize’: Market Forces Have Done It for Him

    Russian Central Bank to Resume Domestic FX Market Interventions from January

    China Scrambles to Contain a Looming Shadow-Bank Meltdown

    Goldman’s Jan Hatzius Believes the Hard Part Is Over

    Billions Wiped Out as Stock-Safety Trade on Wall Street Misfires

    Americans Ditched Big Cities During the Pandemic. Now Many Are Regretting It

    Just How Bad Is the US Cost-of-Living Squeeze? We Did the Math

    Retailers Have Cleaned Up Their Inventories for the Holidays

    There’s a Lot Riding on Black Friday and Cyber Monday

    The Biggest Delivery Business in the U.S. Is No Longer UPS or FedEx

    Blackstone’s Schwarzman Sees Opportunities in Europe Real Estate

    Choice Hotels Prepares to Challenge Wyndham’s Board

    Hot Healthcare Hiring Bolsters Cooling U.S. Labor Market

    Amazon Once Inspired Fear in the Health-Care Industry. No Longer

    How To Make a Weight-Loss Drug Go Viral

    Be sure to follow me on Twitter.

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  • Eddy ElfenbeinEddy Elfenbein is a Washington, DC-based speaker, portfolio manager and editor of the blog Crossing Wall Street. His Buy List has beaten the S&P 500 by 72% over the last 19 years. (more)

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    EddyElfenbein
    eddyelfenbein Eddy Elfenbein @eddyelfenbein ·
    16 May

    On April 9th, the S&P 500 had its third-best rally of the last 80 years (+9.5%). We've gone up another 9% since then.

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    cnbc CNBC @cnbc ·
    16 May

    Federal Reserve will reduce staff by 10% in coming years, Powell memo says

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    eddyelfenbein Eddy Elfenbein @eddyelfenbein ·
    16 May

    In 35 years of owning the S&P 500, dividends would have doubled your return.

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    eddyelfenbein Eddy Elfenbein @eddyelfenbein ·
    16 May

    Odds for a recession this year went from 23% in late Feb to 65% on May 1st, back down to 36% now.

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