Tomorrow Marks the Low Point of the Presidential Election Cycle

Tomorrow, September 30th of a mid-term year, is a big day. This marks the market’s historic low point during the Presidential Election Cycle. Historically, September 30th of the mid-term year is the best time to buy stocks.

A few years ago, I crunched the entire history of the Dow from 1896 to 2007. Here’s what I found:

Historically, the Dow has gained an average of 24.1% from September 30 of the mid-term election year to September 6 of the pre-election year. This means that nearly two-thirds of the Dow’s four-year gain (24.1% of 36.7%) comes in less than one-quarter of the time. That’s a pretty stunning stat.

After September 6 of the pre-election year, the Dow has historically pulled back 5.2% to May 29 of the election year. After that, it puts on a nice 23.2% climb to August 3 of the post-election year. Then trouble starts. After August 3, the Dow then pulls back 5.6% and we’re back at our starting point, September 30th of the mid-term election year.

By the way, if you take out some of the unpleasantness from 1929 or 1987, it doesn’t really alter the trend of the long-term chart terribly much.

Posted by on September 29th, 2010 at 1:15 pm

The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.