Archive for November, 2025

• Morning News: November 28, 2025
  Eddy Elfenbein, November 28th, 2025 at 7:03 am

  ‘We Do Fail … a Lot’: Defense Startup Anduril Hits Setbacks With Weapons Tech

  OPEC’s Numbers Are an Exercise in Artistic Deception

  Canada Lifts Climate Laws for Alberta Oil Sands, Planning Pipeline

  The Texas Oil Mogul at War With California Over an Offshore Bounty

  Capital-Hungry Indonesia to Reduce Hurdles for Foreign Investors

  Why Was Lawrence Summers So In Demand to Begin With?

  Economic Data Dashboards Flourish to Track the Trump Effect

  CME Futures Outage Disrupts Trading Across Global Markets

  What’s Going to Happen When Wall Street’s AI Bubble Blows Up on Main Street?

  Ray Dalio’s Hedge Fund Bug Looks More Like a Feature

  Narrow Breadth of Growth Signals a Hidden Downturn

  How the Megabill Changes 2025 Tax Breaks for SALT and Charity

  You Can’t Blame Your Way Out of a Housing Crisis

  About Right to Work, Will the Real Abigail Spanberger Please Stand Up

  The Real Heroes of the Assault on the Constitution

  Ken Burns Still Thinks America Is Perfectible

  Trump Demands ‘Reverse Migration’ in Push for Sweeping Crackdown

  Trump’s Greedy Thanksgiving

  Why Jewelry Is Outperforming the Rest of the Luxury World

  Shoppers’ Holiday Spending Could Help Keep the Economy Humming

  What Do You Know About Black Friday?

  Why Tariff Uncertainty Means You Might Save Big on Black Friday

  American Customers Are Madder Than Ever

  Amazon, Flipkart Take Aim at India’s Banks With New Consumer Loan Offerings

  Here’s A Glimmer of Hope About AI and Jobs

  AI Shopping Bots Threaten to Upend Amazon’s E-Commerce Dominance

  Tech CEOs Can’t Stop Talking About Data Centers in Space

  FedEx and UPS Don’t Need to Join the Gig Economy

  Billionaire Zara Heir Bets Fast Fashion Empire on Upmarket Push

• Morning News: November 27, 2025
  Eddy Elfenbein, November 27th, 2025 at 7:11 am

  China Warns of Nuclear Conflict Risks After Trump Orders Testing

  Russians Are Starting to Feel Real Economic Pain From Putin’s War

  Todd Boehly Makes a Play for International Assets of Russia’s Lukoil

  Revolut Chair Says UK Stamp Relief Is Attractive for Tech IPOs

  Bank of Mexico Cuts 2025 Growth Estimate After Third-Quarter Contraction

  Is Trump’s Plan to Remake the Fed Coming Into Focus?

  Fed’s Beige Book Shows K-Shaped Split Deepens Among Consumers

  Stocks Gain as Investors Bet on Fed Rate Cuts; Yen Locked in Intervention Zone

  JPMorgan Flips Forecast, Sees Fed Cutting Rates in December

  JPMorgan to Build Huge New Tower in London’s Canary Wharf

  Corporate Dealmaking Is Getting Bigger and Bolder Under Trump

  Sam Altman’s Business Buddies Are Getting Stung

  The Untold Story of Charlie Munger’s Final Years

  What Pumpkin Pie Spices Tell Us About Tariffs

  The Unseen When It Comes To Thanksgiving Is Enormous

  If You Don’t “Own” the Land, Why Not Vacate the Land?

  Sika Flags One-Off Hit From China Restructuring, Costs

  Motorola Survived the iPhone By Returning to Its Public Safety Roots

  Sean Duffy Longs for the ‘Golden Age’ of Air Travel. What Was That Like?

  As Prices Pinch, Bessent Looks for Ways to Mollify Wary Consumers

  Gen X-ers Have Money to Spend. Why Are Retailers Ignoring Them?

  During the Holidays, Retailers Want Social Media Attention Too

  Campbell’s Fires Executive Behind Recording That Disparaged Its Food

  Here’s What’s Really in a Can of Campbell’s Chicken Soup

  Crocs Get the Xbox Treatment with Sole-Crushing Price of $80

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• Morning News: November 26, 2025
  Eddy Elfenbein, November 26th, 2025 at 7:04 am

  Ukraine’s Europe Allies Still Hold an Ace Card in US Showdown

  From ‘Outsider’ to Inmate: A Brazilian Banker’s Sudden Downfall

  Hamas Victims’ Families Sue Binance, Accusing It of Aiding Terrorism

  The Oil Market Is Always Wrong About Long-Term Prices

  Trump Falls Short of His Populist Rhetoric

  A Year Later, Donors to Trump’s Transition Come to Light

  Market Volatility Underscores Epic Buildup of Global Risk

  Traders Crowd Into Fed Futures Targeting a December Rate Cut

  A Smaller Fed Balance Sheet Is Bringing Its Own Problems

  How Much Will Thanksgiving Dinner Cost? It Depends on Whom You Ask.

  Consumer Confidence Fades and Retail Sales Growth Cools

  Retail Earnings Show Shoppers’ Resilience, but Some Stores Struggle

  Black Friday Deals Looking Lame? Just Wait

  This Black Friday, Dog Food Is In and Luxuries Are Out

  TikTok Hits the Sweet Spot on Buying While You Scroll

  Bernie Sanders and Josh Hawley’s Credit Card Price Controls Won’t Work

  The Kids Are Not All Right — How Young Stock Investors Are Bringing on a Bear Market

  There’s No Housing Crisis, There Are Just Emotional Pundits

  Make Houses Our Castles By Rethinking How We Tax Homes

  NYC’s Lander Recommends Dropping $42 Billion BlackRock Mandate

  Senate Committee to Challenge Auto-Safety Mandates That Hurt ‘Affordability’

  The Electric Door Tesla Made Famous Is Now a Danger in Other Cars

  Google Puts a Crack in Fortress Nvidia

  Nvidia’s Stock Is Sinking as Doubts About Its AI Dominance Grow

  SoftBank’s 40% Slide From Peak Shows Worry Over Giant OpenAI Bet

  Walmart Is Exploring Bringing Ads to Sparky, Its New AI Shopping Agent

  AI Startup Suno Inks Warner Music Deal, Settling Litigation

  Campbell’s Defends Its Ingredients After Chicken Controversy

  Bath & Body Works Bets on Aspiration, Influencers and Train-Station Scent Diffusers

  Can Disney Animation Reclaim Its Magic?

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• CWS Market Review – November 25, 2025
  Eddy Elfenbein, November 25th, 2025 at 7:04 pm

  (This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

  The Federal Reserve meets again on December 10. Until very recently, it was looking like the Fed was ready to skip raising interest rates. That’s what the many Fed watchers and the futures market were thinking.

  

  Then it all changed.

  On Friday, John Williams, the top banana at the New York Fed, said the central bank should consider lowering rates at this upcoming meeting. This is a big deal because Williams is seen as being close to Chairman Jerome Powell. Also, the President of the FRBNY is the first among equals inside the Fed.

  Now it looks like another Fed rate cut is ready to go.

  What caused the change in sentiment? Williams said that he’s concerned about a weakening jobs market, and I have to agree with him. He’s also worried that any inflation from the tariffs could be persistent. The conventional wisdom appears to be that any inflation via tariffs will be transitory. I’m not so sure about that.

  “My assessment is that the downside risks to employment have increased as the labor market has cooled, while the upside risks to inflation have lessened somewhat,” he said at an event in Santiago, Chile. “Underlying inflation continues to trend downward, absent any evidence of second-round effects emanating from tariffs.”

  Mr. Williams affirmed that he still believes interest rates, which are in a range of 3.75 percent to 4 percent, are still “restrictive,” meaning they are weighing on economic activity. After two quarter-point cuts at the September and October meetings, the degree of restraint had lessened, but he said he still believed the Fed had room to reduce interest rates further to get to a “neutral” stance that neither revs up nor slows down growth.

  “I still see room for a further adjustment in the near term to the target range for the federal funds rate to move the stance of policy closer to the range of neutral,” he said.

  At last look, traders see the odds of the Fed cutting again at near 85%. One week ago, the odds were at 42%. Whatever happens, I think there’s a good chance we’ll see a few dissents at the upcoming meeting. Under Powell, dissents have been rare.

  Christopher Waller and Stephen Miran are clearly on the rate-cutting side of the debate. Miran, in fact, favorited cutting by 50 basis points at the last two meetings. There’s a good chance that Waller could replace Jerome Powell as Fed chair when the latter’s term is up in May. However, the conventional wisdom is that Kevin Hassett is President Trump’s top choice to lead the Fed.

  Yesterday, the market responded with a nice, happy rally. As you might expect, all those High Beta names were in rally mode. Google and Tesla were both up by more than 6% and Broadcom closed higher by 11%.

  The Nasdaq Composite was up more than 2.7% on Monday. The High Beta ETF was up more than 2.0% while the Low Vol ETF closed down 0.3%. In other words, the market sees lower rates as an excuse to party. I’m not so sure that’s the right take.

  The fact is that there are a lot of reasons to be concerned about the state of the economy. Unfortunately, the government shutdown left us without recent economic data. Still, many signs are pointing to a slowdown.

  On Tuesday, the Census Bureau said that retail sales rose by 0.2% in September. That was 0.1% less than forecast. But if we don’t include auto sales, the retail sales were up 0.3% which was in line with estimates.

  Miscellaneous retailers saw a 2.9% increase on the month, while gas stations, owing to the higher prices, increased 2%. Sporting goods, hobby and music stores saw a 2.5% decline while online sales were off 0.7%.

  Sales at eating and drinking establishments, an indicator of discretionary spending, increased a solid 0.7% on the month and were up 6.7% from a year ago.

  Retail sales, which are adjusted for seasonality but not inflation, increased 4.3% from a year ago, ahead of the 3% CPI rate for the month.

  

  We also learned that consumer confidence fell to its lowest point since April. The percentage of workers saying that jobs are “plentiful” fell to 6%. That’s down from 28.6% in October.

  Home sellers are taking their houses off the market at the fastest pace in nearly a decade. Nearly 85,000 sellers took their homes off the market in September. That’s up 28% from last year.

  We still have the problem of missing economic data. Unfortunately, that will take a few more weeks to fix. The next jobs report is due out on Tuesday, December 16. The CPI report will be out on Thursday, December 18 and the GDP report will be out on December 23.

  Going into Tuesday, the market was able to extend its rally. The Dow closed up more than 660 points. The S&P 500 closed above its 50-day moving average. The rally was also broader as the S&P 500 Equal-Weighted Index closed higher by 1.45%.

  The Healthcare and Consumer Discretionary sectors were especially strong today. Many of the more conservative stocks on our Buy List did well on Tuesday. For example, Mueller Industries (MLI), Cencora (COR) and Rollins (ROL) all made new 52-week highs today.

  IES Holdings Soars 8.5%

  In last week’s issue, I told you about IES Holdings (IESC). The company is an electrical contractor that provides design, build and maintenance services. The division offers service capabilities including constant presence, critical plant shutdown, troubleshooting, emergency service, testing, and preventive maintenance.

  The stock has more than doubled for us this year.

  

  IESC currently has a market value of $7.2 billion and about 9,400 employees. The company currently operates through four business segments: Electrical, Communications, Infrastructure and Residential.

  Last Friday, IESC reported outstanding results for its fiscal Q4, and the shares rallied 8.5% on Monday. Revenue rose 16% to $898 million. Operating income was up 39% to $104.3 million, and diluted adjusted EPS was $3.77 compared with $2.61 one year ago.

  For the whole year, IESC made $23.66 per share. That’s up from $9.56 per share last year. The outlook is bright for IESC. At the end of the quarter, the company had a backlog of $2.7 billion.

  CEO Matt Simmes said, “Looking forward to fiscal 2026, we expect continued growth in our Communications, Infrastructure Solutions and Commercial & Industrial operating segments, which are positioned to benefit from continued strong demand, particularly in our data center end market.”

  I’ll have more to say on IESC in our premium letter (you can subscribe here). If you’re not familiar with IES Industries, you can read the latest investor presentation here.

  That’s all for now. The government’s econ reports may be out soon. Until then, several Fed officials will be speaking this week. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

  – Eddy

  P.S. This got me a lot of hate but I was right.

  pic.twitter.com/p8vncuTfFD

  — Eddy Elfenbein (@EddyElfenbein) November 20, 2025

• Morning News: November 25, 2025
  Eddy Elfenbein, November 25th, 2025 at 7:05 am

  China and Japan, With Trump in the Middle, Stoke an Existential Showdown

  Norway’s Lesson for Europe on Wealth Taxes: Let Some Millionaires Go

  Is Trump Right About the US Getting $21 Trillion in Investment?

  Trump’s $21 Trillion Investment Boom Is Actually Short Trillions

  $10 Billion and Counting: Trump Administration Snaps Up Stakes in Private Firms

  Fed Chair Powell’s Allies Provide Opening for December Rate Cut

  Fed’s Daly Backs December Rate Cut, Citing Vulnerable Labor Market

  The Fed’s Tool for Calming Short-Term Funding Markets Is Being Tested

  What I Learned Teaching Economics and Government Full Time

  Kalshi Is Taking Aim at Stock Exchanges. Why Not?

  Wall Street’s Macro Traders Eye Their Biggest Haul in 16 Years

  If You’re Desperate, You Likely Don’t Have Much Debt

  Pulte’s Move to Fix Credit Scores Is Bad News for Homebuyers

  Justice Department to Settle Lawsuit Over Apartment Rental Pricing

  Your Turkey Is Cheaper This Thanksgiving. That’s About It.

  Trump’s Beef Price Battle Meets America’s Insatiable Demand

  Republicans Need to Get Serious About Health Care

  Park Service Union Movement Spreads to Grand Canyon, Joshua Tree

  Petrobras CEO Scores Big Win, But Hasn’t Dodged ‘Electric Chair’

  China’s Top Companies Focus on AI Agents as Next Battleground

  AI Promised Magic, Then Wall Street Did the Math

  Alphabet’s AI Chips, Gemini Model Position It to Rival Nvidia

  How AI Can Help Reduce Wildfire Risks

  What Is Agentic A.I., and Would You Trust It to Book a Flight?

  Boeing Tackles Quality With a ‘War on Defects’

  NASA and Boeing Scale Back Starliner Missions After Fumbled Astronaut Flight

  Crime Rings Enlist Hackers to Hijack Trucks

  VW Touts Up to 50% Reduction in Chinese EV Development Costs

  Would You Like a New Car With That $8 USB Cable? Amazon Hopes So

  This Sneaker Brand Keeps Raising Prices—and Consumers Don’t Seem to Care

  France to Spend $150 Million Uprooting Vines as Wine Demand Dips

  Tariffs and Strike Drive ‘Once-in-a-Lifetime’ Boost for Canadian Wine

  Faux Jewels and Slimming Belts: Why Shopping on TikTok Is a Lot Like QVC

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• Morning News: November 24, 2025
  Eddy Elfenbein, November 24th, 2025 at 7:06 am

  China Uses Japan Spat to Pressure World to Pick Sides on Taiwan

  A Brief History of Enlightened Oppression

  How Constitutional Limits Become Negotiable

  Why Europe and the U.S. Are Still Haggling on Trade

  Trade Chaos Causes Businesses to Rethink Their Relationship With the U.S.

  How One German Toymaker Made Money Despite U.S. Tariffs

  Banned Chinese Bond Tactic That Turns 8% Yields Into 16% Is Roaring Back

  Bitcoin Funds Head for Worst Month as $3.5 Billion Pulled

  Blockchain Is the Foundation of a Clearer Financial Future

  The Next Winners in PE’s Big 401(k) Push: Million-Dollar Lawyers

  Big Tech’s AI Debt Wave Is Threatening to Swamp Credit Markets

  Treasury Secretary Says There Won’t Be a Recession in 2026

  The Fed’s Not Ready to Channel Greenspan in Betting on Tech Boom

  Everyone Is Talking About the ‘Affordability Crisis.’ It Can’t Be Solved.

  The U.S. Is Not a Low-Tax Country Despite What You’ve Been Told

  How the U.S. Economy Became Hooked on AI Spending

  Blue Owl Is the Sum of All Investor Fears

  Ray Dalio Says ‘Pod Shop’ Hedge Fund Model Is Unlikely to Last

  The AI Industry Is Built on a Big Unproven Assumption

  AI Is More Likely to Cause a Labor Shortage. Here’s Why.

  Google’s Having the AI Build the UI in Latest Gemini Update

  The Bad Reasoning in the Meta Antitrust Ruling Isn’t Even the Worst Part

  The FTC Failed Against Meta Because It Misunderstands Dynamism

  BHP Ends New Anglo Takeover Bid After Rejection

  Blackstone-Backed Beacon Offshore Bets on US Gulf With New Wells

  Hedge Fund Titan Has a Turnaround Plan (for the Carolina Panthers)

  Inside Marriott’s Disastrous Bet on Short-Term Rental Company Sonder

  Performance Food Group, US Foods Scrap Merger Talks

  Why People Are Posting Fake Tales About Being Ghosted by Brands

  Harley-Davidson Dealerships Are Shutting Down Across America: Here’s Why

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• Morning News: November 21, 2025
  Eddy Elfenbein, November 21st, 2025 at 7:03 am

  Russian Oil Risks Being Stranded at Sea as US Sanctions Hit

  Japan Announces $135 Billion Stimulus, NHK Reports, In Bid to Support Economy and Consumers

  Top ECB Officials Urge EU To Remove Internal Barriers Amid Trump Tariffs

  Mexico Economy Dipped Last Quarter, Fueling Recession Fears

  Anxiety Over A.I. Spending Returns to Global Markets

  Bitcoin Heading for Worst Month Since Crypto Collapse of 2022

  Chinese Maker Behind Most of World’s Bitcoin Miners Has Been Focus of US National Security Probe

  Close the Stablecoin Loophole Before We All Pay the Price

  Berkshire’s Alphabet Buy Sure Doesn’t Sound Like Buffett

  Founder of India’s Top Stock Broker Becomes a Billionaire

  Watch Out, It’s More Economic Analysis From An Economist

  The Fatal Conceit of Time Zones and Interest Rates

  GOP Awaits Trump Direction on Health Care as Subsidy Spike Looms

  Job and Housing Stresses Are Caught in a Vicious Loop

  ICE Is Testing Charlotte’s Biggest Employers. They’re Failing.

  Here’s What It Can Cost to Detain and Deport Just One Person

  Air-Traffic Controllers With Perfect Shutdown Attendance to Get $10,000 Bonuses

  The Godmother of AI Didn’t Expect It to Be This Massive

  The New Billionaires Behind the AI Data Center Boom

  Wall Street Chases AI Billions While Africa Tries to Join the Race

  Morgan Stanley’s OpenAI Ties Show How Bank Reels in Hot Startups

  Let’s Learn From Meta’s Antitrust Case What Not To Do With AI

  Climate Summit Proposal Omits Plan for Exiting Fossil Fuels

  The Dirty Secret of Biodegradable Plastic

  VinFast’s Third-Quarter Loss Grows While EV Deliveries Jump

  Obesity Drug Access Grows as Novo, Lilly Sell Direct to Employers

  Cannabis Is In, Booze Is Out at This Year’s Thanksgiving Table

  Why ‘Surveillance Pricing’ Strikes a Nerve

  Netflix, Comcast and Paramount Submit Warner Bros. Discovery Bids

  Telefónica Secures UEFA Broadcasting Rights in €1.5 Billion Deal

  Marketers Are Quitting Corporations for Sports Teams. CMOs Who Made the Move Explain Why.

  Cracker Barrel Investors Vote to Keep On CEO, but Send Message of Discontent

  Superman Comic Sets Auction Record, Selling for $9.12 Million

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• Morning News: November 20, 2022
  Eddy Elfenbein, November 20th, 2025 at 7:08 am

  Saudi Arabia’s Prince Has Big Plans, but His Giant Fund Is Low on Cash

  Saudi Arabia, Once Shunned, Has Corporate Titans Swooning for Deals

  A US Stand-Down Over Venezuela Is Still Possible

  Cultural Confidence: The Missing Ingredient of Western Prosperity

  The American Middle Class Is Shrinking, and That’s OK

  Los Angeles Shows the Limits of the Affordability Message

  Delayed Jobs Data to Give Snapshot of a Labor Market Under Stress

  Holiday Hiring Slows, Frustrating Job Seekers

  Fed’s October Rate Decision Fueled Pushback Over Possible December Cut

  Why Are 3,900% Higher Deposit Levels a Priority?

  BNP Raises Profitability Targets, to Launch $1.33 Billion Buyback

  HSBC Overhauls Trading Business in Bid to Become Debt Powerhouse

  Blue Owl Money Machine Sputters in Face of Private Credit Cracks

  The Housing Strategy That Has California NIMBYs in a Corner

  Nvidia’s Profit Jumps 65% to $31.9 Billion. Is It Enough for Wall St.?

  Elon Musk Claims Money Won’t Exist in the Future (and Jensen Huang Would Like a Heads Up)

  Larry Summers Resigns From OpenAI’s Board

  Family Affair: Commerce Secretary’s Sons Cash In on A.I. Frenzy

  Wall Street Wants Everyone Using AI Except Its Job Applicants

  When Energy Is Done Right, a Rising Tide Will Lift All Boats

  As Sanctions on Russian Oil Loom, India Prepares to End Its Buying Spree

  This $1 Billion Nuclear Loan Is a Bad Look for Nuclear

  Reducing Drug Costs Without Risking Patient Health

  Abbott to Acquire Exact Sciences for $21 Billion

  Walmart Reports Strong Sales Growth, Raises Outlook

  Meta’s Dream of a Connected World Blocked at Red Sea

  Verizon Begins Laying Off More Than 13,000 Employees

  SharkNinja Built a $6 Billion Empire Selling Gizmos Nobody Needs

  Bath & Body Works CEO Says Former Strategy Failed to Drive Growth

  Weed Drinks That Get You Very, Very High Could Be Gone Soon

  Major League Baseball Signs New Rights Deals With ESPN, NBCU and Netflix

  Maasai Sue Marriott Over Ritz-Carlton Safari Camp

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• Morning News: November 19, 2025
  Eddy Elfenbein, November 19th, 2025 at 7:04 am

  Singapore Woos Growth Firms with Plans to Make SGX-Nasdaq Dual Listing Easier

  Where Will ‘America First’ Lead Us? The Answer From History: Nowhere Good

  Trump’s Long-Shot Quest to Turn the Tide as the Asian Century Rolls On

  Trump’s Warships Trigger Rally in Venezuela’s Defaulted Bonds

  Raimondo Says Trump’s Tariffs Hard to Remove for Next President

  Pharma Tariffs Would Result In Fewer, More Expensive Cures

  There’s No Such Thing As a K-Shaped Economy

  Fed’s Barkin Says Coming Data Will Guide December Meeting

  What Fed Cut? US Repo Rates Still High as Liquidity Tightens into Year-End

  The Growing Cost of Having Ties to Epstein

  The World Is Failing Women and Children

  JPMorgan’s Super-Sized Checks Are Blowing Away All Other Lenders

  How Americans’ Nest Eggs Built a Private Equity Loan Revolution

  Fintechs Don’t Require Government Handouts for Data Access

  Nvidia and Walmart Could Ease Wall St.’s Jitters. Or Make Them Worse.

  Nvidia Earnings Run Into a Market Suddenly Afraid of AI Spending

  Nvidia Needs Investors to Party Like It’s Not 1999

  Brookfield Targets $10 Billion for AI Fund in Nvidia Pact

  China’s AI University Beats Out Harvard, MIT in Race For Patents

  U.S. Backs $1 Billion Loan to Restart the Three Mile Island Nuclear Plant

  Elon Musk’s xAI Is in Advanced Talks to Raise $15 Billion, Lifting Valuation

  Europe’s Chip Dreams Confront Business Realities

  Meta Did Not Violate Antitrust Law, Judge Rules

  Adobe Nears $1.9 Billion Deal for Software Provider Semrush

  Nexstar CEO Says Bigger Is Better in Pitch to FCC

  Paramount Is the Only Logical Winner in the Three-Horse Race for Warner

  Lowe’s Sales Rise, Boosted by Growth in Pro Builder Business

  Target to Invest Billions to Upgrade Stores as Sales Slump Continues

  TJ Maxx Owner Outperforms, Signaling More Frugal US Shopper

  Ocado Misses Its Delivery Window With Kroger Setback

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• CWS Market Review – November 18, 2025
  Eddy Elfenbein, November 18th, 2025 at 8:43 pm

  (This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

  The stock market fell again on Tuesday. This was the S&P 500’s fourth drop in a row. Wall Street is clearly getting nervous. Yesterday, for the first time since April, the index fell below its 50-day moving average, and it happened again today. The Dow lost 500 points today and the Nasdaq fell by 1.2%.

  

  November has not been friendly to investors. So far this month, we’ve had four daily drops of more than 1%. In the three months prior to that, it happened only once. The S&P 500 has closed higher for the last six months in a row, but that streak looks to be in serious jeopardy. In four days, the S&P 500 has lost 3.4%.

  Today it was tech stocks that were down the most. The S&P 500 Tech Sector was off by 1.68% today. That’s becoming a theme. Tech stocks and High Beta stocks in general have lagged the market over the last two weeks.

  Anything risky has not done well. Bitcoin briefly dropped below $90,000 for the first time since April. I’m leery of calling this the start of a rotation. We need the trend to last a lot longer before we can say that. If we’re in an AI bubble, then this has to be one of the most expected bubbles in history. One thing history teaches us is that bubbles can go on longer than you think. It’s hard to stay rational when no one around you is.

  All of Wall Street is waiting for Nvidia (NVDA) to report its earnings after tomorrow’s close. It’s hard to overstate how important this earnings report is to traders. Nvidia has a market value of roughly $4.5 trillion, and it used to be even higher.

  Wall Street expects earnings of $1.25 per share. That’s compared with 81 cents per share for the same quarter one year ago. Whether it beats or not, get ready for some volatility. Going by the options market, traders see shares of NVDA closing up or down, by an average of 7%. That’s over $300 billion. Again, that’s only the average, it could be a lot more.

  Over the last 10 years, Nvidia is up more than 6,000%. Despite being Wall Street’s darling, shares of Nvidia have largely performed as well as the market for the last four months. You have to wonder if a small leak can quickly turn into a big panic.

  Since all those government economic reports were on hold, we’ve had to rely on other sources for getting a look at how well the economy is doing. We got another pseudo government report today which was Home Depot’s (HD) earnings report. In my opinion, HD’s earnings report is probably a better indicator of what’s really going on in the U.S. economy. It’s usually optimistic consumers that decide to do things like add a new deck.

  Home Depot (in black) hasn’t performed very well against the S&P 500 (blue) for the last few years.

  This morning, HD said that it missed earnings. Its Q3 earnings fell from $3.65 billion one year ago to $3.6 billion this year. The company also lowered its full-year guidance. Home Depot’s CFO said, “Our customers tell us that they remain on the sidelines due to uncertainty and perhaps the hesitation to make larger financial commitments amid an uncertain economic environment.”

  For Q3, Home Depot’s comparable sales rose 0.2%. That was below Wall Street’s forecast for 1.3%. The damage isn’t that bad, but it soon could be much worse. This is an area of the market to keep an eye on.

  The Russell 2000 had an unusually strong day today. The index closed higher by 0.4%. I think the Russell is a misunderstood index. It really doesn’t say much about small-cap stocks. Instead, the index is weighted heavily toward domestic manufacturing stocks.

  The Federal Reserve meets three weeks from tomorrow, and the outlook for another rate cut is in doubt. Not that long ago, Wall Street assumed the Fed was on its side and that it would slash rates again. Maybe not. In the futures pits, the odds are almost exactly 50-50 on the chance for a December rate cut.

  Yesterday, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he supports another rate cut, and he could be in the majority. This next Fed meeting could test Jerome Powell’s leadership. Normally, most FOMC voters go along with the Fed chair, or there are one or two dissents. This next meeting may be different.

  President Trump hasn’t exactly been shy about his feelings about Jerome Powell. Today the president said, “I’d love to get the guy currently in there out right now, but people are holding me back.” He’ll soon get his wish when Powell’s term expires in May.

  To complicate matters, there may be a growing crisis in the world of private credit. A firm called Blue Owl limited redemptions from one of its funds. Earlier this month, Blue Owl said it will merge its traded fund with its non-traded fund, but investors in the non-traded fund won’t be to redeem their funds until the merger is completed. That may not happen until next year. Any problems in this sector of the market could easily be soothed with lower rates from the Fed.

  Earnings Preview for IES Industries

  This Friday, we’re going to get the latest earnings report from IES Industries (IESC). The report is due out before the market opens.

  The stock has been a big winner for us this year. So far, the stock is up more than 80% YTD. Despite its strong performance, the company isn’t well-known. In fact, only one analyst on Wall Street follows the stock.

  In this week’s issue, I wanted to describe who they are and what they do.

  The company’s Executive Chairman is Jeffry Gendell who used to be CEO as well, but he relinquished that role earlier this year. Gendell was also the founder of Tontine Associates, which is a private investment management firm. The new CEO is Matt Simmes.

  

  IESC currently has a market value of $7.2 billion and about 9,400 employees. The company currently operates through four business segments: Electrical, Communications, Infrastructure and Residential.

  IES Electrical is an electrical contractor that provides design, build and maintenance services. The division offers service capabilities including constant presence, critical plant shutdown, troubleshooting, emergency service, testing, and preventive maintenance.

  IES Communications provides the highest level of design, build and maintenance services for technology and communication systems.

  IES Infrastructure provides electrical and mechanical apparatus services, custom steel fabrication and custom power solutions, including generator enclosures and bus systems.

  IES Residential is one of the nation’s leading electrical, mechanical and plumbing contractors for both single family homes and multi-family apartment complexes.

  IESC has also become known for its data centers which have become valuable thanks to the growth of AI. The company describes itself as “skilled and certified in designing, building and maintaining the critical technology and electrical systems in a data center.”

  During Q3, IESC bought back 33,900 shares of stock for $5.3 million. The company has $168.0 million left in its repurchase authorization.

  The sole analyst who follows IESC expects Q4 earnings of $3.11 per share. Since that’s the only forecast, I really don’t consider that to be Wall Street’s “consensus.” For last year’s Q4, IESC made $2.79 per share. Assuming 18% earnings growth would give them an estimate of $3.29 per share.

  That’s all for now. The government’s econ reports may be out soon. Until then, several Fed officials will be speaking this week. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

  – Eddy