Archive for February, 2026

• Morning News: February 27, 2026
  Eddy Elfenbein, February 27th, 2026 at 7:03 am

  Bombing Iran May Blow Up Trump’s Middle East Plans

  US Threatens to Cut Off Swiss Bank Mbaer from Financial System Over Alleged Iran, Russia, Venezuela Ties

  OPEC+ Looks Willing to Defy Oil Bears’ Warnings Again

  Taiwan and TSMC Make the World Safer by the Day

  Japan’s Takaichi Takes a Page Out of Trump’s Central Bank Playbook

  Trade Remains ‘Challenging’ for Eurozone Amid Volatile Policy, Says ECB’s Lagarde

  Under Siege from Politics, Central Bankers Fight Back – At a Cost

  New Credit Blowup in London Has Wall Street Chasing Billions

  The Buyers Behind Gold’s $5,000 Breakthrough

  Kalshi and Polymarket Are Economic Oracles

  Trump Says Prices Are Falling. Here’s Why That Would Be Bad

  Trump’s Retirement Proposal Already Failed — Under Obama

  The Redistricting War Spells Doom for Congress’ Last Moderates

  Even States With No Income Tax Are Flirting With Taxing the Rich

  Mortgage Rates Fall Below 6% for the First Time Since 2022

  Netflix Backs Out of Bid for Warner Bros., Paving Way for an Ellison Takeover

  Paramount Wins Bidding War for Warner Discovery After Netflix Drops Out

  Tech, TV, Movies and News: Ellisons on Brink of Colossal Empire

  What I Learned In Business School Wasn’t Reflected In the Real World

  Raves, Debt and Deaths: How a Wall Streeter Came to Own New York’s Biggest Club

  Brink’s to Acquire NCR Atleos in $4 Billion Deal in Combo of ATM Players

  Nebraska’s Most Feared Man: The Auditor Who Busts State Workers for Running Errands

  No Such Thing As ‘Free Bus Fares’ In Any City

  A World Where All Is Free? That’s Elon Musk’s Theory of ‘Sustainable Abundance.’

  The Web of Companies Owned by Elon Musk

  Bad Bets: Massive EV Subsidies Not Paying Off

  Nvidia’s Huang Confronts an Investor Audience Demanding the Next Big Thing

  Anthropic Rejects Latest Pentagon Offer, Escalating AI Feud

  Tech Has Never Caused a Job Apocalypse. Don’t Bet on It Now.

  How Jack Dorsey Explained Cutting Almost Half of Block’s Staff

  The Rise and Fall of a 3-D Printing Empire

  The $3,000 Minipig Powering Europe’s Drug Pipeline

  Bloomingdale’s Is Defying the Demise of Department Stores

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• Morning News: February 26, 2026
  Eddy Elfenbein, February 26th, 2026 at 7:06 am

  World Economic Forum Chief Steps Down After Epstein Probe

  Capital Formation Is Elemental To Economic Growth

  Brazil Goes From Big Loser to Winner in Trade Showdown With Trump

  The 6-3 Supreme Court Tariff Vote Calls for Term-Limited Judges

  Shipping Industry Sends Strong Consumer Demand Signal For The Year

  Wall Street Traders Are Pouncing on the Tariff Refund Chaos

  Auditing the IRS: The Future of America’s Most Critical Agency

  For America’s 250th, Should the Coin of Trump’s Realm Be Gold?

  Why Young Men Are Abandoning Trump

  Janus Bidding War Begins as Victory Capital Tops Trian Offer

  Marathon’s Richards Fears 15% Direct Loan Software Defaults

  Kalshi Says ‘MrBeast’ Employee Violated Insider Trading Rules

  The Rising Price Danger of Surveillance Pricing

  Trump Proposed a New Retirement Plan With Up to a $1,000 Match. How Might It Work?

  New A.C.A. Plans Could Increase Family Deductibles to $31,000

  ‘Leverage.’ ‘Reach Out.’ ‘Circle Back.’ The Corporate Jargon We Hate the Most.

  Fintech Plaid Nabs $8 Billion Valuation in Latest Funding Round

  Nvidia Beats Back Bubble Fears With Record $68 Billion in Sales in Fourth Quarter

  Nvidia’s 75% Margin Gives AI Rivals Something to Aim For

  Nvidia’s Upbeat Sales Forecast Gets Lackluster Investor Response

  I Thought I Understood A.I. Companies. I Couldn’t Have Been More Wrong.

  Claude Code and the Great Productivity Panic of 2026

  Anthropic’s Pentagon Showdown Is About More Than AI Guardrails

  Anthropic Vs. the Pentagon Is a Fight for AI’s Future

  Women Are Falling in Love With A.I. It’s a Problem for Beijing

  Satellite Images Expose Trump’s Claim of ‘Easy’ Victory in Iran

  Aramco Starts Giant Jafurah Gas Field in Bid to Boost Cash Flow

  BlueScope Says $11 Billion Steel Dynamics, SGH Takeover Offer Insufficient

  Blaming Tariffs, Aston Martin Will Trim 20% of Its Work Force

  Warner Bros. Posts Lower Sales, Profit Amid Takeover Fight

  Shake Shack Profit Rises as Deals Draw Customers

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• Morning News: February 25, 2026
  Eddy Elfenbein, February 25th, 2026 at 7:03 am

  Waging War With Iran Is In No One’s Best Interest

  What’s at Stake for Oil If Iran-US Tensions Escalate

  Attack of the Zombie Tariffs

  China’s $112 Billion Cargo Gap Shows Record US Tariff Evasion

  Trump Finally Gave an Affordability Speech

  Trump Brushes Off Affordability Worries in State of Union Speech

  The Trump 1 Percent Fan Club Has a Lot of New Members

  US Mortgage Rates Reach Lowest Since 2022, Spurs Refinancing

  The Birthrate Obsession: A Sign That Keynes Still Pollutes Economics

  Fed Independence Is Sacred, or So We’ve Been Told

  Trump Administration Weighs Requiring Banks to Collect Citizenship Info

  JP Morgan Raises Long-Term Gold Price Forecast 15% to $4,500 an Ounce

  Circle Internet’s Quarterly Profit Surges on Stablecoin Demand

  Why This Investor Says You Can Make Good Money Off Software Stocks — If You Trade Them Like Telephone Directories

  Sorry FTC, the First Amendment Trumps Antitrust Law

  Mamdani’s New York Is Flirting With Fiscal Nihilism

  Court Rules Against Justice Dept. Search of Reporter’s Computers

  Abu Dhabi’s State Oil Company Looks Beyond Oil

  Korean Memory Makers Pursue Next Breakthrough With HBF Idea

  Pentagon Gives A.I. Company an Ultimatum

  Bleak Research Report Stokes A.I. Debate on Wall St.

  Deutsche Bank, Goldman Look to AI to Flag Trader Misconduct

  Nvidia Earnings Loom as Risk Factor for AI-Obsessed Stock Market

  Softbank’s Ohio Power Plant Delivers an AI Sticker Shock

  Why the Tab for Powering Data Centers Will Keep Rising — Despite Trump’s Pledge

  A Divided $377 Billion Tech Giant Reveals the Perils of AI

  Wayve, an A.I. Driverless Car Start-Up in Europe, Raises $1.2 Billion

  Lowe’s Signals Muted Housing Demand In Weak Full-Year Forecast

  How United’s ‘Act of God’ Expectations Help It Hit Financial Targets

  Paramount’s Newest Bid Could Open Door to Beating Netflix Deal, Warner Says

  Harvard’s Decades-Long Expansion Dream Meets Harsh Real Estate Reality

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• CWS Market Review – February 24, 2026
  Eddy Elfenbein, February 24th, 2026 at 6:36 pm

  (This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

  For the 44th trading day in a row, the S&P 500 closed within 1.5% of 6,900. It doesn’t seem to matter what the news is – the S&P 500 can’t get the strength to stray very far from 6,900. While on the surface, the market appears to be calm, that can be misleading. There are strong currents just below the surface.

  

  The most important change is that since late October, defensive stocks have started to act much better, especially compared with the overall market. By defensive stocks, I mean companies whose businesses tend to prosper no matter what the rest of the economy is doing. Principally, I think of consumer staples and healthcare stocks as the best examples of defensive stocks.

  When times get tough, defensive stocks hold up much better. Or, more accurately, defensive stocks tend to fall the least in bear markets. Before October, defensive stocks got absolutely clobbered by traders. Beginning in April 2025, the market soared, but our defensive friends barely budged. The gap between defensive stocks and everybody else grew enormously wide.

  I knew something had to give, and it finally happened.

  Since October 29, the S&P 500 Consumer Staples ETF (XLP) is up by 17.6% and the S&P 500 Healthcare ETF (XLV) is up by 10.4%. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is up by a scant 0.3%.

  As a general rule, defensive stocks will slowly lag the market for a long time; then all of a sudden, they massively outperform. Think of defensive stocks as the lifeboats of stock picking.

  The time to buy defensive stocks is when the economy gets wobbly. The big question is, if defensive stocks are leading the market, does this mean that Wall Street is worried about the economy? Utilities are also defensive and they also do well when the economy is weak and rates are coming down.

  The U.S. Economy Hit a Small Bump Last Quarter

  On Friday, the Commerce Department finally released its long-delayed Q4 GDP report. Bear in mind that this is dated info. Q4 began five months ago and ended two months ago.

  Unfortunately, the news wasn’t very good. According to the government, the U.S. economy grew in realized annualized terms of 1.4% during Q4. That was well below economists’ estimate of 2.5%. Some folks were expecting 3% or more.

  

  The Commerce Department said that the government shutdown shaved about 1% off growth for Q4.

  Consumer spending increased at a slower pace for the period while government spending tumbled sharply in a quarter marked by the record-length shutdown. The department estimated that the shutdown subtracted about 1 percentage point from growth, though it added that the exact impacts “cannot be quantified.”

  For the full year in 2025, the U.S. economy grew at a 2.2% pace, down from the 2.8% increase in 2024.

  The shutdown ran for most of the first half of Q4. Except for Covid, last year the U.S. economy had the worst year for economic growth of the last nine years. I think it’s interesting that nominal GDP grew by 44% over the last five years. Of course, inflation had a lot to do with that, as did the sharp rebound from Covid.

  There were some positive details within the report:

  Another key Fed metric, called final sales to private domestic purchasers, posted a 2.4% increase for the quarter, half a percentage point lower than the prior quarter but still indicative of solid underlying demand in the $31.5 trillion U.S. economy.

  Also, gross private domestic investment rose 3.8% after being flat in Q3. On the downside, government spending and investment slid 5.1%, slammed by a 16.6% tumble at the federal level that was only partially offset by a 2.4% increase from state and local entities.

  We also got the PCE data which is the Fed’s preferred measure for inflation. During December, the PCE rose by 0.4%, and it’s up by 2.9% over the last year. That was a little higher than expected. In December, the core PCE rose by 0.2%, and it’s up by 3% over the last 12 months.

  Where does this leave the Federal Reserve? Probably no change. The Fed doesn’t meet again for another three weeks and it’s very doubtful the Fed will make any changes to interest rates at its March or April meetings. There is a decent chance, although far from absolute, that the Fed will make a move in June. Of course, this would be after May when Jerome Powell’s tenure comes to an end.

  If you want to see a sneak preview of what the Fed is up to, checking out the two-year Treasury is often a good predictor. If you look at the chart below, the blue line (the two-year yield) often runs just ahead of the Fed’s policy (the red line).

  

  The Fed currently has interest rates pegged between 3.5% and 3.75%. The two-year Treasury is currently at 3.47%. This tells me that the Fed probably won’t make any big moves soon.

  Stock Focus: Graco

  If you’ve followed me for a long time, then you know I’m big fan of little-known stocks that have great long-term track records. I’m always amazed that investors waste so much energy trying to find the “next Nvidia” instead of the current Church & Dwight (CHD).

  This week, I want to bring Graco (GGG) of Minneapolis to your attention. I can’t say that Graco is completely unknown, but it isn’t well known. Graco turns 100 years old this year.

  The company describes itself:

  Graco Inc. supplies technology and expertise for the management of fluids and coatings in both industrial and commercial applications. It designs, manufactures and markets systems and equipment to move, measure, control, dispense and spray fluid and powder materials. A recognized leader in its specialties, Minneapolis-based Graco serves customers around the world in the manufacturing, processing, construction, and maintenance industries.

  Sexy, right? Management of fluids! Sure, I know it’s a little boring, but look at the stock. According to this chart, shares of GGG are up 70-fold over the last 40 years.

  That doesn’t include dividends. If we add in dividends, then GGG is up more than 440-fold over the last 40 years. Not bad for managing fluids.

  

  But there’s another reason why I like Graco. I love to follow the Dividend Aristocrats. These are companies that have increased their dividends every year for at least 25 years. There’s an ETF focused on the the Aristocrats (ticker symbol: NOBL).

  One pet peeve I have is that too many Dividend Aristocrats give their dividends a token increase just so they can keep their dividend streaks going.

  That’s where Graco comes. First, GGG can’t officially be a Dividend Aristocrat because it’s not in the S&P 500. It’s in the Mid-Cap S&P 400. What I like about Graco is that the company consistently raises its dividend by sizable amounts. It’s rare that you’ll see Graco hike its dividend by less than 7%.

  From Graco’s Investor Relations page, you can see a long history of Graco’s dividends. Not many companies provide that level of detail. The current quarterly dividend is 29.5 cents per share. Over the last 20 years, Graco has increased its dividend at an average rate of 9.5% per year, and that comes on top of a healthy increase to its stock.

  As much as I like Graco, the company has missed its earnings forecast several times recently. I can’t say I’m a buyer yet – I’d prefer to wait on Graco until its business improves. That’s the great thing about investing. We can wait and wait and wait until we get the patch we want.

  That’s all for now. The next jobs report will be due out on March 6. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

  – Eddy

• Morning News: February 24, 2026
  Eddy Elfenbein, February 24th, 2026 at 7:02 am

  Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Has Already Changed the World

  China Hits Japanese Firms With Export Bans

  The Looming Taiwan Chip Disaster That Silicon Valley Has Long Ignored

  Trump’s 10% Levy Takes Effect as US Rebuilds Tariff Wall

  Trump Says Economy Is His Now, Faces a Tough Job Selling It

  Has Trump Delivered on His Promises? What These 12 Metrics Tell Us

  The State of the Union for Small Business Is Dismal

  Bad Economics Isn’t Necessarily Unconstitutional

  There Is a Debt Crisis, But It’s Unseen and Not Even Discussed

  European Style Corporate Strangulation Hardly Works In the U.S.

  I.R.S. Tactics Against Meta Open a New Front in the Corporate Tax Fight

  Why the I.R.S. Wants $15 Billion From Meta

  Meta to Spend Billions of Dollars on AMD Gear, Buy Stock

  Dimon Sees Pre-Crisis Parallels as Rivals Do ‘Dumb Things’

  Private Markets Hiring Defies Gloom With $2.5 Million Pay Deals

  The End of the Federal Government’s Debit Card ‘Inflation’ Scapegoating

  How Prediction Markets Polymarket and Kalshi Are Gamifying Truth

  Binance Employees Find $1.7 Billion in Crypto Was Sent to Iranian Entities

  FedEx Sues for Refund of Trump Tariffs Rejected by Supreme Court

  Home Depot Profit Falls As Home Improvement Downturn Continues

  Pentagon Summons Anthropic Chief in Dispute Over A.I. Limits

  AI Image Pioneer’s Startup Unveils Technology to Speed Up Chats

  Paramount Submits Higher Offer for Warner Bros.

  Roku’s New Ad Deals and Cost Cuts Help It End a Three-Year Profit Slide

  The New Head Of Xbox Is Worried About Birthrates, But Says AI Will Save Us

  Europe’s Biggest Business Lobby Calls for Carbon Market Overhaul

  Fresenius Medical Care Shares Drop After Outlook Underwhelms

  Keurig Dr Pepper Sales Rise on Higher Prices

  America’s Love of Ube Is Straining Supplies in the Philippines

  Planet Fitness Posts Higher Profit, Revenue

  Saks Owner Says He Saved Department Stores. Never Mind the Bankruptcy.

  The Luxury Resale Market Is Booming. Brands Are Struggling to Cash In.

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• Morning News: February 23, 2026
  Eddy Elfenbein, February 23rd, 2026 at 7:05 am

  Christine Lagarde Isn’t Done Trying to Fix Europe

  EU Set to Halt US Trade Deal Approval Over Trump Tariff Risk

  The Supreme Court Blocks President Trump’s $18 Trillion Fairy Tale

  Trump Lost on Tariffs, but Trade Will Never Be the Same

  The Supreme Court’s Tariff Ruling Doesn’t Solve the Problem

  Tariff Ruling Brings Little Comfort Overseas

  They Did Deals With Trump to Get Lower Tariffs. Now They Are Stuck.

  Trump’s Challenge to Free Market Capitalism

  Tariffs Are a Wild Card for the Economy Again

  What to Know About Trump’s New Tariff

  Why Tariffs Aren’t Shrinking the U.S. Trade Deficit

  The Gold Price Mirrors Voter Unease That Politicians Blithely Ignore

  Gold-Like Swiss Franc May Surge 17%, Morgan Stanley’s Adams Says

  The AI ‘Scare Trade’ Is Healthy for the Stock Market

  AI Is No Excuse for the Fed to Cut Interest Rates

  Blue Owl Anxiety Rattles the $1.8 Trillion Private Credit Market

  Private Equity’s Dry Spell Now Worse Than 2008 Crisis, Bain Says

  US Battery Market to Grow Despite Policy Headwinds, Report Says

  Corporate America’s New Slogan: Make More, Pay Less

  America’s Energy Bills Are Soaring. The Pain Is No Longer Just for the Poor.

  It’s a Buyer’s Market, but Homeownership Eludes Many Americans

  The Fundraising Tactic AI Startups Are Using to Juice Valuations

  ‘A.I. Literacy’ Is Trending in Schools. Here’s Why.

  At This Newark School, A.I. Lessons Are the New Drivers’ Ed

  AI Anxiety Has Found Its Way to Real-Estate Brokers

  Meta Rakes It In, Yet Still Borrows Billions for AI

  Tech Companies Are Making Their Robots Cute to Try to Win Over Humans

  Gilead to Buy US Biotech Arcellx for Up to $7.8 Billion

  Novo Next-Generation Obesity Shot Falls Short of Lilly Rival

  Johnson Matthey Lowers Price of Unit Being Sold to Honeywell to $1.8 Billion

  Americans Can’t Quit Steak, No Matter the Cost

  Domino’s Revenue Rises on U.S. Same-Store Sales Growth

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• Morning News: February 20, 2026
  Eddy Elfenbein, February 20th, 2026 at 7:03 am

  India Builds a Fossil Future One Coal Plant at a Time

  Anglo American Halves Value of De Beers Diamond Business

  Trump and Indonesia Sign Trade Deal, Locking in 19% Tariffs

  Jittery Markets Seek an Iran ‘Off-Ramp’

  Investability Will Define Saudi Arabia’s Next Market Phase

  Eurozone Business Activity Picks Up Faster Than Expected

  Eurozone Wages Growth Slowed Last Year Despite Low Unemployment

  US Poses Greater Security Threat Than China, Canadians Say in Poll

  11 Million Visitors Short: Inside America’s Continuing Tourism Slump

  In 2025, Trade Deficit in Goods Reached Record High

  New US Debt Projections Put Spotlight on the ‘Doom Loop’ Scenario

  Why the Federal Deficit Is Projected to Surge, in Five Charts

  Mixed Signals Churn Stock Market Despite Recent Highs

  How Jerome Powell Is Trump-Proofing the Fed

  Can an A.I. Productivity Boom Clear a Path for More Rate Cuts? Trump’s Fed Pick Thinks So.

  Stablecoins and Credit: What the Debate Is Missing

  JPMorgan Says Trump’s $5 Billion Suit ‘Fraudulently’ Includes Dimon

  Blue Owl Sets Off New Private Credit Fears

  How Private Equity Debt Left a Leading VPN Open to Chinese Hackers

  Goldman’s Petershill Seeks $5 Billion for More Private Stakes

  How the White House Is Turning a Win on Crime Into a Loss

  Even If Social Security Were Going Bankrupt (It’s Not), Retirees Wouldn’t Care

  DEI Rules That Changed Corporate Boards Are Vanishing

  Amazon Is Now America’s Biggest Company. Its 17-Year Journey to Surpass Walmart.

  America’s Human Capital Is Eroding

  This AI Electricity Stopgap Needs a Big Caveat

  NASA Boss Blasts Starliner Mission That Left Astronauts in Space for Months

  South Africa Cattle Virus Response in ‘Shambles’ Says Dairy Firm

  The Beef Industry Has a Message for Consumers: Get Used to High Prices

  Some Reese’s Treats Drop the Milk Chocolate. Mr. Reese Disapproves.

  Starbucks Needs You to Buy an Afternoon Refresher

  She Bet on K-Pop. Netflix Got Its Biggest Movie Ever.

  How a Century-Old Rule Is Scrambling Late-Night TV

  Live Nation Reports Growing Annual Concert Attendance as Federal Antitrust Trial Looms

  The Dodgers Are Annoying, Greedy—And Good For Baseball

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• Morning News: February 19, 2026
  Eddy Elfenbein, February 19th, 2026 at 7:07 am

  Ousted Korean President Yoon Gets Life Term Over Martial Law Bid

  Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor Has Debts to Pay

  Donald J. Trump International Airport? The President’s Company Trademarked It.

  Trump Mulls a North American Trade Pact Without Canada

  Macron Is Setting Up a G-7 Showdown With Trump Over Social Media

  The ‘Board of Peace’ Is an Ego Trip

  JPMorgan In Talks to Bank for Trump’s Board of Peace

  Here Are Trump’s Options If the Supreme Court Says His Tariffs Are Illegal

  Japan May See Upheaval of Funds when BOJ Hikes Rates to 1%, Economist Says

  Digital Euro to Cost EU Banks 4-6 Billion Euros Over 4 Years, ECB Estimates

  Inflation Is Down, But Americans Still Feel an Affordability Squeeze

  The Senate Is Legislating Reduced Credit, Benefits and Security

  How MAGA’s Census Fight Would Reshape Political Power

  Klarna Reports Loss as More Money Set Aside for Souring Loans

  Steve Cohen’s $3.4 Billion Payday Tops Hedge Fund Ranks

  Top Lawyers’ Fees Have Skyrocketed. Be Prepared to Pay $3,400 an Hour.

  Ohio’s Tax Tactics Threaten Investment, Jobs, & Constitutional Principles

  Private Equity Targets Clean Energy After Steep Drop-Off in 2025

  The White House Is Too Sure About Iran and Oil Prices

  Big Oil Is Struggling to Find the Next Guyana

  Stock Slide and Slow Sales: What’s Happening in China’s E.V. Market?

  Tesla and California Both Back Down in Spat Over Autopilot

  Uber, Latest Victim of Disruption Panic, Still Has Role in Robotaxis

  Uber Moves to Enact Stricter Background Checks for Drivers

  Money Talks as India Searches for Its Place in Global A.I.

  OpenAI Funding on Track to Top $100 Billion in Latest Round

  Ring’s Founder Knows You Hated That Super Bowl Ad

  Mark Zuckerberg Grilled on Usage Goals and Underage Users at California Trial

  In First Since WWII, Navy to Hire Company to Oversee Shipbuilding Project

  Deere Profit Sinks as Tariffs Weigh on Margins

  Walmart Sales Climb, Driven by Grocery and Online Gains

  Walmart Expects Growth Streak to Continue as New Chief Takes Over

  Kids Want Cheap Stuff, and Lots of It. Five Below Delivers

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• Morning News: February 18, 2026
  Eddy Elfenbein, February 18th, 2026 at 7:04 am

  Trump Hails Japan’s First Batch of U.S. Investments

  How the World’s Most Boring Market Became a ‘Battlefield’

  Lagarde Reported to Consider Early Exit

  ECB’s Lagarde Hasn’t Made Decision on Finishing Term

  Warsh May Want a Smaller Fed Balance Sheet, But That’s Hard to Achieve

  UBS Lifts Forecast for Big Tech Bond Sales This Year

  Goldman Sachs to Drop D.E.I. Criteria for Board Members

  Berkshire Cuts Amazon Stake, Makes Bets on New York Times

  Meet the New FTC Boss, Same As the Old FTC Boss

  Kalshi Dealt Major Setback in Court Fight to Remain in Nevada

  Wealth Creation Is Not An Act of War, Opposite What You’re Told

  The 401(k) Takeover: Private Equity Muscles In on Retirement

  College Graduates Are Down But Not Out in the Job Market

  Californians Deserve Better Than Economic Fairy Tales

  One Year of RFK Jr. Has Left Public Health Devastated

  Inside the Black Box of Prescription Drug Pricing

  Could China’s Manufacturers Shift Output to the US? Japan Did It

  Steel Dynamics, SGH Raise BlueScope Steel Takeover Bid to $11 Billion

  Russia Cuts Oil Drilling as Money Dries Up, With Output at Risk

  The Fossil Fuel Tycoon Teaming Up With the Rockefellers to Fight Energy Poverty

  Texas Oil Drillers See Salvation in Data Centers

  Apple Decouples From Nasdaq as AI ‘Whack-a-Mole’ Grips Market

  Private Credit Should Worry About a Singularity in Software Debt

  OpenAI, Anthropic Deals Power Abu Dhabi’s $100 Billion AI Bet

  Anthropic’s Altruism and Strategic Interest: Aligned Too Neatly?

  Online Shopping Could Be AI’s Next Victim

  How a Social Media Addiction Trial Threatens Big Tech

  Pritzker Pitches Illinois Social-Media Fee as Deficit Looms

  Amazon Fends Off Blowback for Ring’s Search Party Tool

  Paramount’s New Chance to Win Over Warner Bros. Discovery

  Bayer Agrees to Pay $7.25 Billion to Settle Roundup Lawsuits

  A ‘Boneless Wing’ Needn’t Come From Wing Meat, Judge Rules

  Gen Alpha Is Helping Revive China’s Struggling Malls

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• CWS Market Review – February 17, 2026
  Eddy Elfenbein, February 17th, 2026 at 7:23 pm

  (This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

  Inflation Comes in Lighter than Expected

  The stock market rallied for the second day in a row, although it was a modest gain (+0.10). The S&P 500 is still a little below its 50-day moving average. Growth stocks had another good day today. Apple was up over 3%.

  Transportation stocks continue to do very well. Shares of FedEx hit a new 52-week high. Amazon snapped a nine-day losing streak today. Over that time, the company lost $450 billion in market value.

  In 2020, the stock market peaked on February 19th. That’s when Covid hit. In a little over one month, the S&P 500 lost one-third of its value. Last year, the market peaked again on February 19th. This time the S&P 500 lost 19% in just seven weeks.

  I don’t know what to expect on this February 19, but I’ll note that Walmart is scheduled to report its earnings on the morning of February 19. In my opinion, WMT’s earnings report is probably a better gauge of consumer spending than a handful of government reports. The company averages about $1.3 million in revenue every minute of every day 24/7.

  This morning, shares of Walmart hit a new 52-week high, but the shares later pulled back. By the closing bell, WMT was down 3.8% for the day. For this earnings report, Wall Street expects earnings of 73 cents per share. That’s up from 66 cents per share one year ago.

  On Friday, the government released a very encouraging inflation report. According to the report, inflation in January was less than expected.

  Over the last year, headline inflation increased by only 2.4%. That’s down 0.3% from the prior report. It’s also the lowest 12-month inflation number since last May. For the month, consumer prices rose by 0.3%. That was 0.1% less than expected.

  Here’s a look at the recent 12-month inflation data:

  

  If we exclude food and energy, then the core rate of inflation is running at 2.5% over the last 12 months. That’s the lowest 12-month core rate in nearly five years. For the month of January, core inflation was 0.3% which was in line with expectations.

  We have moderating shelter costs to thank for most of the good inflation news.

  Though the category accounted for much of the CPI gain, shelter costs rose just 0.2% for the month, bringing the annual increase down to 3%. Shelter makes up more than one-third of the CPI.

  Elsewhere, food prices increased 0.2% as five of the six major grocery group categories posted gains. Energy fell 1.5% while vehicle prices also were muted, with new vehicles up just 0.1% and used cars and trucks falling 1.8%. Airline fares jumped 6.5% while egg prices fell 7% and are now down 34% over the past year after a meteoric surge.

  What does this mean for the Fed and interest rates? In the short-term, probably nothing. Traders see a very small likelihood that the Fed will lower rates in March or April. After that, there seems to be a growing consensus that the Fed will start cutting again at the June meeting. Of course, this would be after Jerome Powell heads out of town.

  The Fed’s job is to aim for low inflation and full employment. The first part doesn’t concern me so much, but the second part does. Last week’s jobs report wasn’t bad, but we can’t escape the fact that the economy has only averaged a gain of 15,000 new jobs per month. That’s not going to cut it.

  Let me add a few cautionary notes to this data. The partial government shutdown may have impacted some of the recent data. We also haven’t seen the full impact of the tariffs just yet. We also haven’t seen the inflation that many economists had expected but that could be waiting for us in a few months. Also, used car prices were a big drag on headline prices. Additionally, prices for services like airline tickets remain high.

  On Friday, we’re finally going to get the Q4 GDP report, and some folks are expecting good news. The report had been delayed for several months. The GDP report, along with other reports, is creating a “data deluge” that markets are watching closely.

  The consensus on Wall Street is for Q4 GDP growth of 2.8% to 3%. Please note that that’s the annualized inflation-adjusted figure. For Q3, the economy grew by 4.4%.

  

  The New York Fed’s Staff Nowcast pegs Q4 growth at 2.7%, with a 50% chance of it coming in between 1.6% and 4.0%. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model currently expects Q4 GDP growth of 3.7%.

  One of the big questions I have is how strong was consumer spending. I sense that consumer spending slowed down some as we headed into the holiday shopping season.

  We’re starting to head towards the back end of earnings season, and overall, this has been a very good earnings season for Wall Street. So far, 74% of companies have reported earnings, and of those, 74% have topped Wall Street’s earnings forecasts.

  That “beat rate” largely aligns with the average beat rate of 76% over the last 10 years. Earlier in the earnings season, the beat rate was running a little higher.

  The year-over-year earnings growth rate is currently running between 13.2% and 13.6% which is quite good. Another 57 companies are due to report this week, so these numbers are subject to chance. The important takeaway is that Corporate America is still profitable despite issues like tariffs and the government shutdown.

  For Q1, Wall Street currently expects earnings growth of 11.1%, and revenue growth of 8.7%. If there are any cracks in the economy, businesses aren’t showing it.

  Stock Focus: Church & Dwight

  One stock I love to follow is Church & Dwight (CHD). Sure, it’s a little boring, but you really can’t go wrong with condoms and baking soda. The company owns several household products brands.

  CHD is one of those stocks that’s rarely mentioned even though it’s been a massive winner over the years. Since 1996, CHD is up about 85-fold. That’s an average of 16% per year, and it’s lapped the S&P 500 (in green) several times.

  

  Again, there’s nothing fancy here. These are the folks who make OxiClean.

  Lately, however, CHD hasn’t been that great of a stock. Today it trades about 10% above its 2020 peak (cleaning product companies rallied strongly during the earlier days of Covid). Last year, was not a good one for CHD. The stock lost about 25% from its March high to its October low. To be fair, a lot of defensive stocks did not do well.

  Since the start of this year, Church & Dwight has been in rally mode. The shares are already up 20% this year. CHD went from being a stock that could do nothing right to one that could do nothing wrong.

  In January, CHD reported Q4 earnings of 86 cents per share. That beat estimates by two cents per share. For the year, CHD made $3.53 per share. The stock rallied 6% over two days following the report.

  CHD also bumped up its dividend by 4%. This is the 30th year in a row that CHD has increased its dividend.

  The company also said it expects to see earnings growth for 2026 of 5% to 8%. That works out to earnings of $3.71 to $3.81 per share. Assuming that’s accurate, that gives the stock an earnings multiple of 26 to 27.

  As much as I like Church & Dwight, I’d prefer to see it at a better price. Say $85 to $90. Still, this is one to keep an eye on.

  That’s all for now. We still have lots more earnings this week. The Q4 GDP report will finally be out on Friday. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

  – Eddy