Archive for January, 2026

• Morning News: January 30, 2026
  Eddy Elfenbein, January 30th, 2026 at 7:03 am

  U.S. Trade Deficit Widens Despite Trump’s Tariffs

  Trump Picks Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair

  Wall Street Reacts as Warsh Selected by Trump as Next Fed Chair

  Will Warsh Do What Trump Wants?

  Dollar Fears Are Flaring as Trump Rekindles Debasement Trade

  Private Assets Will Benefit From Fed’s Openness to Rate Cuts

  Gold and Silver Plunge as Wild Swings Rock Metals Markets

  Trump’s Crackdown on Defense Dividends Should Worry Retirees and Investors

  Judge Rules Bank of America Must Face Lawsuit Over Jeffrey Epstein Ties

  New Jersey Governor’s Electricity Obsession Is a Warning

  A Tax Cut for ‘Working Families’ Does Nothing For Economic Growth

  Panic in Miami: Haitians Confront Suddenly Losing Legal Status

  Trump Deal to Avert Major Shutdown Set to Miss Funding Deadline

  Senate, White House Look for a Way Out of ICE Funding Fight

  Kristi Noem Is Also Failing at Running FEMA

  Goodbye Arms Control, Hello Nuclear Anarchy

  Panama High Court Gives Trump a Win Over Canal by Ousting Hong Kong Port Operator

  Sanctioned Vessels, Pursuits at Sea: Tanker Trackers Keep Tabs

  Exxon, Chevron Post Slimmest Annual Profits Since 2021

  Chevron Sees Self-Funding Model in Venezuela to Safeguard Cash

  A Fight Against Russian Oil Hits Lukoil Station Owners in the U.S.

  Chinalco, Rio Tinto to Buy Control of Brazilian Aluminum Maker

  The End of the Model S Is the Start of a New Tesla

  Apple Gives Itself the Toughest Act to Follow

  LG Electronics Reports First Net Loss in a Year

  Verizon Posts Strong Subscriber Gains in Its First Quarter Under New CEO

  Walmart’s New CEO Takes Over With $1 Trillion Valuation in Reach

  End of Amazon Go Marks Retreat From Effort to Reinvent Physical Stores

  Uniqlo’s Billionaire Founder Wants Tenfold US Growth. Early Signs Are Good

  Colgate-Palmolive Swings to a Loss on Charges

  Church & Dwight Logs Sales Growth

  Twix Is OK but Granola Isn’t as States Deploy New Food Stamp Rules

  Can This Man Break Disney’s Succession Curse?

  The GameStop CEO Has an Audacious Plan to Clinch His $35 Billion Payday

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• Morning News: January 29, 2026
  Eddy Elfenbein, January 29th, 2026 at 7:09 am

  At World’s Busiest Port, China’s Unbalanced Economy Comes Into View

  In Beijing, British Prime Minister Sees ‘Huge Opportunities’

  Brent Crude Hits $70 a Barrel as Trump Ramps Up Iran Threats

  Silver Prices Are Surging Even Faster Than Gold

  Trump, Democrats Make Some Progress in Talks to Avert Shutdown

  US Dollar Falls Again as Debasement Fears Outweigh Bessent’s Boost

  Fed Holds Rates Steady for First Time Since July

  A Surprise Waller Dissent at the Fed Is Seen as a Hail-Mary Move

  Why Powell Won’t Say if He Is Staying on the Fed Board

  Deutsche Bank, Facing Probe, Posts Biggest Annual Profit in Nearly Two Decades

  Blackstone Posts Surprise Profit Jump as Deals Gain ‘Velocity’

  Wall Street’s Stamp of Legitimacy Fuels Suspected Pump-and-Dump Schemes

  What Does ‘Responsible Investing’ Even Mean Anymore?

  Capping Credit Card Rates Will Do More Harm Than Good

  Capping Credit Card Rates Is a Cure Worse Than the Disease

  Trump’s Trade Policies Sort Manufacturers Into Winners and Losers

  A Rug Maker Withstood One Year of Trump’s Tariffs. New Challenges Loom.

  International Paper to Split Into Two Listed Companies

  Why Some Cold States Are Making It Cheaper to Run a Heat Pump

  How Remaking the Neighborhood Could Boost Poor Kids’ Futures

  U.S. Companies Are Still Slashing Jobs to Reverse Pandemic Hiring Boom

  Americans Are More Worried About Health Care Costs Than Gas or Groceries

  How to Bring Back the American Dream

  We’ll Never Retire For All the Reasons Elon Musk Thinks We May

  Tesla Profit Slumps, but Investors May Not Care

  Musk Is Fueling Tesla by Torching Piles of Cash

  Tesla to Invest $2 Billion in Elon Musk’s xAI, Cancel Two EV Models

  Sergey Brin Backs New California Political Effort as Threat of Wealth Tax Looms

  Meta Reports Record Sales, Massive Spending Hike on AI Buildout

  Caterpillar Earnings Beat Boosted by AI Data Center Power Demand

  Boeing Should Ignore the Siren Call of Maximizing Cash

  The Netflix Combination With WBD Is Good for Customers

  Amazon’s Promotion of ‘Melania’ Has Critics Questioning Its Motives

  Lululemon’s See-Through Leggings Fiasco Is Just Its Latest Unforced Error

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• Morning News: January 28, 2026
  Eddy Elfenbein, January 28th, 2026 at 7:05 am

  Record Debt in the World’s Richest Nations Threatens Global Growth

  Europe Got Tough With Trump, but It Needs the U.S. as Much as Ever

  Gold Hits Record Above $5,300 as Trump Dollar Comments Aid Rally

  A New Force to Be Reckoned With in the Gold Market

  Tether Is Shaking Up the Gold Market With Massive Metal Hoard

  Trump’s Embrace of Weaker Dollar Fuels Bets on New Downtrend

  Kalshi Needed a Bigger Win from the Mamdani Race

  Family Offices Defy ‘Sell America’ Trade With Deal Spree in US

  Pam Bondi’s Offer to Minnesota Is Really a ‘Shakedown’

  Trump Has Four Finalists to Run the Fed. None of Them Are Exactly What He Wants.

  These Are the 12 Fed Officials Who Will Vote on Interest Rates This Year

  Rick Rieder’s Donations to MAGA Rivals Tests Trump’s Fed Chair Demands

  Fed Meeting Comes at Pivotal Moment for Central Bank’s Independence

  How the Fed’s Interest-Rate Outlook May Be All About the Job Market

  The Points Guy Says Trump’s Rate Cap Idea Ends Credit Card Heyday

  A Cap on Credit Card Fees Will Cause Many To Lose Their Cards

  A Municipal Debt Boom Is Driving Public Projects and Tax Breaks for Investors

  Jamie Dimon Helpfully Explains How All Legislation Should Be Crafted

  Bari Weiss Urges CBS News to Think Like a ‘Start-Up’

  AI’s HAL 9000 Problem, and What It Portends For the Future

  The AI Bubble Is Getting Closer to Popping

  Health Care Is Just as Dangerous for the Economy as AI

  Microsoft, Amazon Give Bubble-Wary Investors Another Metric to Worry About

  Microsoft Pledged to Save Water. In the A.I. Era, It Expects Water Use to Soar.

  Amazon to Cut 16,000 Corporate Positions to Trim Bureaucracy

  Lilly Signs Seamless Gene-Editing Deal for Over $1.1 Billion

  Is a Cookie a Type of Candy? Supermarkets Have a New Food-Stamp Conundrum

  Babies Are Getting Sick From Formula That Mimics Mother’s Milk

  The Future of Male Birth Control Could Be Pills, Gels and Implants

  Scotts Miracle-Gro Strikes Deal to Sell Cannabis-Supply Unit

  Starbucks Sales Accelerate as Turnaround Gains Steam

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• CWS Market Review – January 27, 2026
  Eddy Elfenbein, January 27th, 2026 at 6:09 pm

  (This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

  Q4 Earnings Are Looking Good

  On Tuesday, the stock market closed at another all-time high. The S&P 500 has climbed higher on the last five days in a row. The index finished Tuesday’s trading at 6,978.60. Ever since the Greenland ructions passed, Wall Street has been in a very good mood. The stock market is already up nearly 2% this year, and we’re still in January.

  I always find it interesting how the stock market completely ignores news that we think is incredibly important. Yet at the same time, the market can easily be tripped up by a throwaway comment from some government official.

  

  Wall Street is moving close to the heart of Q4 earnings season and we have some early numbers. So far, 13% of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported earnings. Of those, 75% have beaten expectations, and 69% have beaten on revenue. For Q4, the S&P 500 is on track to report earnings of 8.2%. If that’s right, then Q4 will be the 10th quarter in a row of earnings growth.

  So far, six companies have issued positive guidance, and four have issued negative guidance. The index is currently going for 22.1 times forward earnings which is relatively high compared with the last 10 years.

  The Magnificent 7 is expected to have Q4 earnings growth of 20.4%. If you exclude that from the S&P 500, then the other 493 companies are expected to show earnings growth of 4%.

  For 2026, the Mag 7 are expected to have earnings growth of 22.8% while for the other 493 companies, it’s 12.1%. I should add that analysts have cut their estimates over the past few weeks. That’s a typical Wall Street tactic. Firms convince analysts to drop estimates far enough to where they can beat them, and then they claim victory while ignoring the previous estimate cuts.

  On Tuesday, shares of United Health (UNH) plunged 20%. This is also important because UnitedHealth is a component in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Since the Dow is price weighted, UNH’s fortunes have an outsized impact. Today’s drop dinged the Dow for more than 400 points.

  The health insurer posted a modest earnings beat for Q4 ($2.11 vs. $2.10). Revenues were below expectations ($113.2 billion to $113.82 billion). Wall Street had been expecting $454.6 billion.

  

  The problem was that UNH offered weak guidance for 2026. For this year, UNH expects revenues to fall by 2% to $430 billion. This is the first time in 10 years that United Health has had declining sales.

  The WSJ reported on Tuesday that the Trump administration plans to keep the rates that it pays medical insurers steady. In 2027, payments would increase by an average of 0.09%. Wall Street had been expecting an increase of 4% to 6%. The increase for last year was 5%.

  That news was enough to bring down several related stocks. For example, CVS (CVS) was down 14% on Tuesday.

  Silver: The Poor Man’s Gold

  In last week’s issue, I told you that the real action lately hasn’t been in the stock market. Instead, it’s been in the gold trading pits. In 18 months, the price for gold has doubled.

  I actually understated that because even more intense action can be found in the silver trading pits. In two months, the price of solid silver has doubled.

  Two years ago, you could have picked up an ounce of silver for just $22. Lately, silver has been going for $116 per ounce. Yesterday, Ag jumped by more than 14% before pulling back.

  

  Gold broke $5,000 per ounce. This is all part of the “debasement trade.” The idea is that investors are shifting away from dollar-based assets. Other metals have also done well like copper, platinum and palladium.

  Silver, which is often called “the poor man’s gold,” has a tendency to do whatever gold’s doing, just a lot more. If gold rallied by 10%, then silver is up by 20%. If gold drops by 10%, then silver is down by 20%.

  Gold now trades at less than 50 times silver. That’s the lowest gold/silver ratio in 15 years. During the early part of Covid, gold got to more than 130 times silver.

  The Gold/Silver ratio has been an important ratio through history. In ancient Greece, the ratio fluctuated around 10:1 to 13:1. In King David’s time, it was 12:1. Julius Caesar had the ratio at 11.5:1.

  In 1792, the U.S. Congress, at the advice of Alexander Hamilton, passed the Coinage Act of 1792. This was the government’s first attempt at price-fixing (and not the last). The act defined a U.S. dollar as 371.25 grams of silver or 24.75 grams of gold. In other words, Hamilton pegged the Gold/Silver ratio at 15. In 1834, Congress had to bump it up to 16.

  

  In 1979-80, there was an absolutely crazy rally in silver when two Texas brothers tried to buy all the silver in the world. What’s even crazier is that if it hadn’t been for those meddling exchanges, they would have gotten away with it.

  When Nelson Bunker Hunt and Herbert Hunt started their plan, silver was around $6 per ounce. By early 1980, it got to $50 per ounce. Time Magazine estimated they made between $2 billion and $4 billion in just nine months.

  To pull this off, they had to borrow zillions of dollars. At one point, it was estimated that they held one-third of the world’s silver. Tiffany took out a full-page article to denounce them.

  The Hunt brothers were the sons of the legendary oilman, Haroldson Lafayette “H.L” Hunt, Jr. Hunt the senior wrote a totally crazy novel based on his idea of a fascist utopia called “Alpaca.” I remember one person calling it “1984, but Big Brother is the good guy.”

  Another brother was Lamar Hunt who was one of the most influential people in the development of modern football. He was the one who came up with the name “Super Bowl.” The winner of the AFC Championship Games gets the Lamar Hunt Trophy.

  Anyway, back to silver. The Hunts were convinced that the Establishment was out to crush them and they were pretty much right. The exchange changed the margin requirement which forced the brothers to put up much more collateral.

  (By the way, one of my first jobs in the industry was making margin calls. That’s not a metaphor. I had to actually call people to tell them they had to sell or put up more money.)

  On March 27, 1980, the bottom fell out of the silver market. This is now known as “Silver Thursday.” The Hunts had to put up more money, but they couldn’t reach their margin requirement.

  The government was worried (tell me if you’ve heard this one before) that Wall Street banks were so much in debt to the Hunts that if the Hunts went under, so would the banks. In fact, a silver panic could start a banking panic.

  The Hunts had finally been broken. Silver didn’t make a new high for 45 years. The Hunts eventually become the models for brothers Randolph and Mortimer Duke in the movie Trading Places.

  The Federal Reserve meets again this week. Don’t expect any change on interest rates. The futures market currently thinks there’s a 97% chance that the Fed will leave rates alone. The policy statement will come out tomorrow afternoon. I’ll be curious to see if Jerome Powell discusses the investigation by the DOJ.

  Powell’s term ends in May, so he’ll be out in any event. The new frontrunner to be named Fed chair is Rick Rieder from BlackRock. He’s up to 47% at PolyMarket. Rieder has argued that productivity gains from AI have caused inflation to fall lower than we realize. This aligns with President Trump’s view. He appears to be a candidate who would both reassure Wall Street and be close to the president’s views.

  Here’s an interesting exchange between Rieder and Barry Ritholtz in 2023:

  RIEDER: It was. So Lehman paid a billion dollars for EF Hutton. And I was very lucky, there were 35 of us in the training program ad it looked like we all were going to get fired. And they took two of us, and I’m not sure how I made it through the strainer. But I found somebody who I really liked in the mortgage department and the mortgage agency, mortgage business, and took a liking to me and I went into the training program. You know, then by the way, it wasn’t like the crises ended between 1990 and the recession on the S&L dynamics.

  And then in ‘94 and ‘98, you know, all had a different stream to 2002. By the way, it seemed like every four years —

  RITHOLTZ: Right.

  RIEDER: — there was — and then, you know, punctuating with obviously 2008. But boy, I mean, I went through — and I think I still have a scar tissue to this day of, you know, all of these — by the way, I think it’s an interesting cyclicality to markets, that every four years you need to recalibrate. You know, people are comfortable, leverage builds. And then all of a sudden, sometimes violently, it recalibrates. But I tell you, you know, going through it again in ’22, you know, you just know that the next couple of years are going to be pretty good because you just reprice things again. But I tell you going through those years, I’d love to skip those in my career.

  RITHOLTZ: Mark your calendars for 2026.

  That’s all for now. Earnings news to dominate the market this week along with the Fed meeting. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

  – Eddy

• Morning News: January 27, 2026
  Eddy Elfenbein, January 27th, 2026 at 7:09 am

  Gold Soars Beyond $5,000 as Global Tensions Grow

  How Gold’s Safe-Haven Appeal Is Fueling Record Prices

  The Gold Boom Has Miners Scrambling to Find the Next Mother Lode

  The Possible Faces of a Rio Tinto-Glencore Deal

  EU Warns of Over-Reliance on US Gas After Greenland Spat

  US Oil Capital Houston Buzzes As Industry Limbers Up For Venezuela Oil Rush

  The Trump Administration Now Thinks Clean Air Is Worthless

  Record Debt in the World’s Richest Nations Threatens Global Growth

  EU and India Reach Free-Trade Deal as World Responds to Trump Tariffs

  Trump Says He Will Raise Tariffs on South Korea to 25%

  Tariffs Reward Inefficiency. Here’s a Better Way

  As Trump Heads to Iowa to Trumpet Economy, Many Residents Feel Pain

  Dollar Traders Are Paying a Record to Bet on Deeper Selloff

  Fed Set to Pause Rate Cuts, With No Clear Path to Resuming

  Blackstone Makes Over $400 Million Gain on Marathon Sale to CVC

  No-Leverage, One-Man Hedge Fund Beats Bay Street With 65% Return

  Goldman’s Solomon Sees ‘Slower’ Trajectory for Talent Growth

  Social Security, Medicaid and Medicare Protect Us From Much Worse

  Musk Is Wrong About AI and Retirement: You Still Need to Save

  American Housing Needs More Institutional Investors

  Yale’s Famed Investing Model Falters at a Fraught Time for Colleges

  As Tech Chiefs Woo Trump, Silicon Valley Seethes Over Minneapolis Shootings

  CEOs’ ICE Letter (That Doesn’t Mention ICE) Isn’t Good Enough

  Silicon Valley’s Social License Is In Jeopardy

  An A.I. Pioneer Warns the Tech ‘Herd’ Is Marching Into a Dead End

  Nvidia Lacks Clear Successor for Superstar CEO Who Built Company

  GM Beats Earnings Expectations, Boosts Dividend by 20%

  UnitedHealth Books Hefty Charges, Issues Soft Full-Year Revenue Outlook

  American Airlines Profit Misses Estimates, Sees Hit From Storm

  Senate Antitrust Panel Chair Raises Concerns Over Netflix-Warner Deal

  Shareholders, Not Bureaucrats, Should Decide the WBD Merger

  Ian Schrager Forges New Partnership to Revamp His Stalled Hotel Brand

  Sports Leagues Struggle To Lure Fans Away From Illegal Streams

  Puma Brings in Chinese Sportswear Maker as Top Shareholder

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• Morning News: January 26, 2026
  Eddy Elfenbein, January 26th, 2026 at 7:06 am

  Trump Extends Trade Turmoil Threatening Major Tariffs on Allies

  The World Economy Is Hooked on Government Debt

  Japan Bond Crash Unleashes a $7 Trillion Risk for Global Markets

  Allied Gold Agreed to $4 Billion Buyout By Hong Kong’s Zijin Gold

  Dollar Pressure Mounts as Traders Reopen Debasement Debate

  Stablecoins Are the Future But Banks Will Survive

  Fed to Hold Rates as Political Storm Intensifies Around Powell

  How Trump’s Ally at the Fed Is Remaking Bank Oversight

  Trump Hobbled the I.R.S. This C.E.O. Now Has to Make It Work.

  JPMorgan’s Debanking Fight Is a Problem Washington Created

  Credit Card Rate Caps Will Make Housing Less Achievable

  Boomers at 80: Why The ‘Great Wealth Transfer’ May Never Come

  Build Power at the Pace of Innovation – Let the Markets Lead

  Seed Funding no Longer, Startups Are Raising Coconut Rounds

  The Man Who Almost Replaced Warren Buffett

  Voters See a Middle-Class Lifestyle as Drifting Out of Reach

  These Developers Stand to Win in Trump’s Housing-Investor Crackdown

  Hard Times in the Delta as Farmers Consider Letting Crops Rot

  Oil Tanker Rates Are Surging on Geopolitical Risks

  As Europe’s Reliance on U.S. Natural Gas Grows, So Does Trump’s Leverage

  Leidos to Buy Kohlberg’s Entrust for $2.4 Billion

  Nvidia Invests $2 Billion More in CoreWeave, Offers New Chip

  Trump Pushes A.I. Data Centers, but the G.O.P. Is Cool to One in Alabama

  Governments’ New Must-Have: Their Own Satellites

  Quantum-Computing Company IonQ to Buy Chip Maker SkyWater for $1.8 Billion

  Is CVS Daring Trump To Defend Biological Reality?

  The Secret Society of People Who Know the Formula for WD-40

  The TikTok US Saga Isn’t Over — It’s Just Beginning

  Disney’s Surprise Box-Office Champion is ‘Zootopia 2,’ Thanks to China

  The Wait List for a Birkin or Rolex Is Getting Shorter

  High January Is the New Dry January

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• Morning News: January 23, 2026
  Eddy Elfenbein, January 23rd, 2026 at 7:03 am

  Business Activity Picks Up In Parts Of Europe and Asia

  Why Trump’s Reversal on Greenland Still Leaves Europe on Edge

  Lutnick Suggests Canada-China Deal Threatens CUSMA Renegotiation

  Bank of Japan Keeps Rates at 30-Year High as It Gauges Impact of Last Hike

  Fed Not Seen Cutting Rates Again Until June in Latest Survey

  Bitcoin Price Not Following ‘Digital Gold’ Narrative Amid Greenland Tensions

  Competition Begets Better Banking Data Than Regulation

  FDIC Clears Way for Ford, General Motors to Set Up Industrial Banks

  Consumer Prices Rose 2.8% Through November, a Sign of Sticky Inflation

  One Easy Way to Address the Affordability Issue

  Falling Prices Enable the Savings That Drive Progress

  Excessive Litigation Is Hurting the Retirement Plans of Americans

  Wall Street Pushes Solo 401(k)s as More Americans Work for Themselves

  The Historian Who Says Finance Is Wasting a Generation of Talent

  Trump Sues JPMorgan, CEO Jamie Dimon for $5 Billion Over Alleged Debanking

  Can Newsom Stop California’s Billionaire Tax?

  ‘Quiet-Quitting’ of US Assets Fuels Boom in Bets From EM to Gold

  Betting on Prediction Markets Is Their Job. They Make Millions.

  Minneapolis ICE Standoff Has Become the Political Issue CEOs Can’t Ignore

  The US Is Losing Top Tech Talent to India in the Wake of Trump’s H-1B Chaos

  The Problem With That ‘Great Healthcare Plan’

  Big Insurers Try to Shift Blame for High Health Costs to Hospitals and Drug Makers

  America’s Energy Revolution Continues

  America’s Ice Storm Battery Test Begins This Weekend

  EPA Shouldn’t Try to Hide the Benefits of Clean Air

  New U.S. Rule Aims to Speed Up Mining of the Seafloor

  China Tells Alibaba, Tech Firms to Prep Nvidia H200 Orders

  Can Old Lime Bikes and Hard Disks Counter China’s Rare-Earth Chokehold?

  Intel Shares Fall on Swing to Loss

  A Guide to the Circular Deals Underpinning the AI Boom

  There’s a New American TikTok. What Does That Mean for You?

  After TikTok Deal, Chinese Companies Search for a New Global Path

  Dana White’s Empire of Testosterone Now Stretches to the White House

  Macron’s Davos Shades Crash Italian Maker’s Site, Boost Shares

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• Morning News: January 22, 2026
  Eddy Elfenbein, January 22nd, 2026 at 7:07 am

  Latin America Rides Out Trump’s Trade Storm With Help From China

  What Trump Said About the U.S. Economy at Davos

  China Wins as Trump Cedes Leadership of the Global Economy

  Trump’s Protectionism Is the Affirmative Action He Claims to Despise

  Howard Lutnick’s Davos Speech Ends In Chaos After Heckling And ‘Walkouts’

  At Davos, the World Rebalanced Against a Bully

  America’s Davos Climbdown Shows Humiliation Has Its Limits

  How Trump Has Pocketed $1,408, 500,000 in the White House

  Rutte Says Trump Greenland Plan Involved No Sovereignty Talk

  Geopolitical Turbulence May Test Euro Area Banks’ Forex Funding, Risk Body Warns

  ‘Sell America’ Is the Long Game for Europeans

  It’s Time for JPMorgan and BofA to Make Room Up Top

  How Trump Is Rewriting the Rules for America’s Biggest Banks

  Why Waiting to Regulate Crypto Is a Policy Mistake

  Deutsche Börse to Acquire Allfunds for $6.19 Billion

  EQT to Acquire Private Equity Firm Coller Capital For Up to $3.7 Billion

  Ray Dalio Sees Ongoing Diversification Away From US Assets

  Silicon Valley Pours Out Lobbying Cash and Flattery to Win Over Deal-Minded Trump

  China Lagging in AI Is a ‘Fairy Tale,’ Mistral CEO Says

  Companies Move to Refinance Sooner: ‘Better Off to Lock It In’

  Malfunction Forces Japan to Take Restarted Nuclear Plant Offline

  Why One Big Ship Buyer Wants Shadow Fleet Tankers

  Venezuela’s Questionable Oil Figures Are Now Trump’s to Tout

  US Won’t Offer Security Guarantees to Oil Companies in Venezuela

  Change in Venezuela Isn’t the Only Reason to Own Oil-Field-Services Stocks

  Halliburton Exports Its Oil Gear as Fracking Goes Global

  When Elon Musk Came for Michael O’Leary, the Irishman Knew Exactly What to Do

  Abbott Sinks After First-Quarter Profit Forecast Falls Short

  Federal Regulators Take New Aim at Late-Night TV

  He Wants New Yorkers to Have a Stake in the Knicks and the Rangers

  Sports-Betting Scandals Are Ubiquitous. Whether Fans Will Care Is an Open Question.

  Target Store Staff Are Skipping Work Over ICE’s Crackdown in Minnesota

  Lululemon Founder Slams Board After See-Through Leggings Fiasco

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• Morning News: January 21, 2026
  Eddy Elfenbein, January 21st, 2026 at 7:08 am

  IEA Lifts Oil Demand Forecast But Warns Supply Surplus Persists

  Fracking Goes Global

  An Anxious Japan Restarts the World’s Biggest Nuclear Plant

  In Great Britain, Industrial Prowess Surrenders to Green

  In Great Britain, Industrial Prowess Surrenders to Green

  Why Is America Dismantling the Western Alliance?

  Trump’s Greenland Threat Is Stirring Up Europe’s Deepest Divisions

  Trump’s Trade Deal With EU Looks Shaky Amid Greenland Grab

  Dimon Says He Would Be ‘More Polite’ in Criticizing Europe

  Greenland Tensions Rattle Global Markets

  Greenland Clash Risks Undermining America’s Place in World Economic Order

  Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent Turns Up the Heat on Fed’s Jerome Powell

  There’s Much More at Stake in the Fed Case Than Interest Rates

  Wall Street’s TACO Trade Runs Into a Problem of Its Own Making

  Trump’s Tabloid Presidency Is a Recipe for Chaos

  The Enduring Legacy of Trump’s Imperial Presidency

  Strong Incentives As the Path To Economic Advance

  Trump Outlines Next Steps for Housing Investor Ban

  A Case for Housing As the Dream for Millennials

  Nosebleed Housing Prices Aren’t Signaling What the Experts Think

  Rich Americans Had a Good 2025. Everyone Else Fell Behind

  The Americans Who Are Going a Whole Month Without Buying Anything

  Target’s ICE Response Shows Corporate America’s Overcorrection

  Geothermal Wildcatter Zanskar, Which Uses AI to Find Heat, Raises $115 Million

  Colleges Are Letting AI Bots Help Make Decisions on Who to Admit

  Nvidia CEO Says AI Will Create Jobs For Electricians and Plumbers

  How This AI-Infused Warehouse Sorts Real Louis Vuitton Bags From Fakes

  Elon Musk Accused of Making Up Math to Squeeze $134B from OpenAI, Microsoft

  Why Elon Musk Is Racing to Take SpaceX Public

  J&J’s Sales and Profit Rise on Strong Cancer and Autoimmune Drug Sales

  Netflix Earnings Shed Light on Why It Needs Warner

  Smithfield Foods to Buy Nathan’s Famous

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• CWS Market Review – January 20, 2026
  Eddy Elfenbein, January 20th, 2026 at 5:20 pm

  (This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

  Markets Drop on Greenland News

  The stock market opened sharply lower this morning due to rising tensions over Greenland. (Well, there’s a sentence I never saw myself typing.)

  The stock market was not pleased over this weekend’s news. The Dow lost 870 points today and the S&P 500 dropped a little over 2%. The Nasdaq fell by 2.4%. The S&P 500 also fell below its 50-day moving average. This was the worst day for the index since October.

  A lot of folks just seem baffled by President Trump’s actions. French President Emmanuel Macron emailed President Trump saying, “I do not understand what you are doing on Greenland.” He’s not alone.

  

  As usual, I’ll steer clear of any political angles – that’s not my specialty. I do know markets and markets do not like uncertainty, but that’s what we’re getting over Greenland.

  My hunch is to ignore this as typical Trumpian bluster, but I can’t be positive. Some folks are taking this very seriously. Denmark has moved troops to Greenland. There appears to be a desire to deescalate tensions.

  President Trump has threatened new tariffs on several European countries that aren’t siding with him over Greenland. This could impact $100 billion worth of U.S. exports. Countries such as Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the U.K., the Netherlands and Finland will be hit with 10% tariffs on February 1. Those will rise to 25% in June.

  The “Sell America” trade dominated world markets on Tuesday. Before there’s warfare on the battlefields, there’s often warfare in the markets. On Tuesday, the dollar plunged, Treasuries fell, yields spiked and gold rallied. In fact, gold and silver hit record highs. In less than 18 months, gold has doubled.

  

  On Tuesday, the euro gained 0.7% against the dollar and gold was on pace for its best day since October. The bulls came in and tried to turn things around, but that effort flopped by noon.

  What’s interesting about today’s market is that it largely continued the trend that’s been in place for several weeks. By that, I mean that Value outperformed Growth (meaning it fell by less). Low Vol beat High Beta. The Russell 2000 beat the large-cap indexes and the equal-weighted indexes held up very well.

  I’m happy to report that our Buy List continues to do very well this year. On Tuesday, the Buy List outperformed the S&P 500 for the 11th time in 12 trading sessions. Rollins (ROL) was up a bit today and it reached a new 52-week high as did Casey’s (CASY) and Mueller (MLI). Comfort Systems USA (FIX) just became our first 20% winner this year.

  So far, this earnings season is going mostly well for Wall Street but there have been some prominent disappointments. 3M (MMM) beat earnings by three cents but the stock got knocked for a 5% loss.

  Fastenal (FAST) said its Q4 revenues were below Wall Street’s estimate. The problem is that higher tariffs inflated prices and cut demand. Fastenal is a good example of a cyclical stock. The company sells construction supplies such as fasteners, nuts, ⁠screws and bolts.

  Bank stocks were nervous on Tuesday as the market was waiting on the decision by the Trump administration to impose a 10% cap on credit card interest rates. U.S. Bancorp (USB) rallied a bit after an encouraging earnings report.

  For much of last year, I talked about how riskier stocks strongly outperformed more conservative investments. That gap between high-risk and low-risk performance grew exceedingly wide by late last year. So far, that trend has reversed itself and low-risk stocks are finally leading the market.

  The reversal seems to have started in late October. Since then, defensive stocks have prospered. Here’s a look at the Consumer Staples (red), Healthcare (blue) and the S&P 500 (green) over the last several weeks:

  

  It’s not much yet but this is a major departure from what we saw last year. These are typically the kinds of stocks people buy when they’re nervous about the state of the economy.

  On Thursday, the government will release its first estimate for Q4 GDP growth. It could be a strong number. Traders are very optimistic. The traders at Polymarket expect growth of more than 3.5%. For 2026, traders see a 78% chance that GDP growth surpasses 2.5%.

  The Federal Reserve meets again next week, and I think we can completely rule out any changes to interest rates. The Fed’s pause may not last long. Traders still see two more rate cuts coming this year. If the employment news continues to be sluggish, then we’ll certainly see the Fed come to the market’s rescue, no matter who the Fed Chair is.

  Stock Focus Guidewire Software (GWRE)

  One of the stocks I strongly considered for this year’s Buy List was Guidewire Software (GWRE). Even though I didn’t chose Guidewire for inclusion on our Buy List, I thought it’s worth taking a closer look.

  Guidewire is a leading provider of cloud-based software solutions specifically designed for the property and casualty (P&C) insurance industry (e.g., auto, home, commercial, and other non-life insurance).

  The company helps insurance carriers modernize their operations, engage customers digitally, and grow more efficiently. Their platform is used by over 570 insurers in more than 40 countries. Guidewire is the go-to platform for many P&C insurers looking to replace outdated legacy systems with modern, flexible technology. The company is based San Mateo, CA.

  

  Guidewire had several co-founders but the most prominent is Marcus Ryu. He served as the CEO for several years and led Guidewire through its IPO in 2012.

  Guidewire’s AI analytics features are deeply integrated into its P&C insurance platform (primarily through Guidewire Analytics and Guidewire Cloud), enabling insurers to embed predictive and generative AI insights directly into core workflows like underwriting, claims, pricing, and operations.

  What I like about Guidewire Software is that it has a strong moat, particularly in the property and casualty (P&C) insurance software market. This is because Guidewire has “high switching costs.”

  This refers to the expense that a customer faces when trying to switch from one product to another. These costs make it difficult for customers to change, even if a competitor offers a better or cheaper alternative.

  High switching costs help companies retain customers, reduce churn, maintain pricing power, and deter new competitors from easily gaining market share. This is important because companies with high switching costs can often charge higher prices without losing many customers.

  Guidewire is a very profitable outfit. In December, Guidewire reported fiscal Q1 earnings of 66 cents per share. That’s up from 43 cents per share one year ago. It also beat Wall Street’s consensus of 61 cents per share.

  Wall Street expects Guidewire to make $2.95 per share this year and $3.86 per share in 2027.

  

  One problem with Guidewire is that it’s overpriced. Very overpriced. That fact probably explains why the stock has not done well recently. Since October, it’s been in a nosedive. At one point, GWRE got to $272.60 in October. It touched a new 52-week low today of $154.96. That’s still 40 times next year’s earnings estimate.

  I expect Guidewire to trade at a premium, but I’d prefer to see a much smaller premium. Another concern I have is that Guidewire relies too heavily on a small number of customers. Still, if business remains good and the shares become a good deal less expensive, then I think Guidewire would be an attractive investment.

  That’s all for now. Expect earnings news to dominate the market this week. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

  – Eddy