Archive for March, 2026

• CWS Market Review – March 31, 2026
  Eddy Elfenbein, March 31st, 2026 at 7:05 pm

  (This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

  The first quarter came to an end today, and it was a difficult one for Wall Street. We started off the quarter, and the new year, just fine. By January 27, the S&P 500 reached an all-time closing high. Then on February 6, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 50,000 for the first time ever.

  

  Then in the middle of the quarter, things started to change as the market had to deal with the ramifications of military operations in the Middle East. The Strait of Hormuz was shut down and the price of oil shot to more than $100 per barrel. It’s still up there as I write this.

  Now the damage is being felt on Wall Street and on Main Street. The price for a gallon of gas is now above $4. In recent days, the Dow closed more than 10% off its high which is the traditional definition of a market correction.

  Here’s how the three major indices performed during Q1:

  S&P 500: -4.63%

  Dow Jones Industrial Average: -3.58%

  Nasdaq Composite: -7.11%

  The S&P 500 closed Monday at 6,343.72 which marked its lowest close since August 7, 2025. The index is currently below its 50- and 200-day moving averages. It’s not in correction territory yet, but it’s getting close.

  March turned out to be the worst month for stocks in more than a year, and Q1 was the worst quarter for the S&P 500 in nearly four years. If we measure from the market’s high in February 2025, then the stock market has barely advanced — and adjusted for inflation, the market is basically flat for 13 months.

  The Mag 7 stocks, in particular, have not fared well. All seven lost ground during Q1:

  

  Google is missing from the chart because I’m only allowed six lines at once. For the quarter, Google lost 8.06%.

  The stock market had a big relief rally on Tuesday (+2.91%). I tend to be skeptical of outsized “contra-trend” rallies. This is when the stock market does exactly the opposite of what it had been doing, and it does it by a lot. Don’t get me wrong. I’ll welcome any rally, but days like today seem more like temper tantrums rather than optimistic rallies.

  The stock market rallied after the president of Iran said that his government might be open to ending the war. The Dow rallied over 1,100 points today and the Nasdaq was up 3.83%.

  Earlier today, the Labor Department’s JOLTS report said that hiring in February fell to its lowest level in six years. This week, we’re going to learn a lot more about how well the economy is performing. Tomorrow, ADP will release its monthly report on private payrolls. Wall Street expects to see a gain of 39,000 jobs.

  We’ll also get the retail sales report for February. If you recall, the report for January was not terribly good. For tomorrow, Wall Street expects to see a gain of 0.5%, and a gain of 0.3% excluding autos. At 10 a.m. ET tomorrow, we’ll get the ISM Manufacturing Index.

  That leads us to Friday and the big March jobs report. This report will be a little unusual in that the stock market will be closed on Friday for Good Friday. This means that we’ll have to wait until Monday to see the market’s reaction.

  For Friday’s report, Wall Street expects to see a gain of 59,000 jobs. For February, the economy lost 92,000 jobs. Analysts also see the jobless rate staying at 4.4%. Hourly average earnings are expected to rise by 0.3%. That’s not bad, but I hope to see better numbers.

  This leaves the Federal Reserve in a difficult position. The jobs market is weak, and commodity prices are rising. The economy would certainly benefit from lower prices, but the inflation may be too precarious to ignore.

  The Fed meets again in four weeks, and it will be Jerome Powell’s final meeting as Fed Chair. Now it looks like the Fed may not touch interest rates before the end of this year. In fact, they may not make any changes to rates for another 16 months. That’s according to the latest futures prices.

  Stryker Hits New 52-Week Low

  I wanted to highlight Stryker (SYK) this week. The stock has been on our Buy List for the last 19 years in a row. It’s a wonderful company, and I’m glad we’ve owned it.

  Lately, however, the shares haven’t performed very well. The company was also the victim of a nasty cyber-attack. Fortunately, most of its systems are back up and running. Today, shares of Stryker got down to a new 52-week low. The stock is back to where it was nearly two years ago.

  Here’s a look at 40 years of SYK:

  

  It’s hard to find a point when it wasn’t a good time to buy Stryker. This is also a good example of Elfenbein’s Law: “When a stock has done so well that the legend for the vertical axis is unreadable, that’s probably a good sign.”

  In January, Stryker reported very good numbers for Q4. Earnings rose 11.5% to $4.47 per share. That was eight cents better than expectations. Stryker’s own guidance had been for $4.34 to $4.44 per share.

  Net sales were up 11.4% to $7.2 billion, and organic sales were up 11.0%. Stryker’s operating margin increased 100 basis points to 30.2%. For the year, Stryker made $13.63 per share. That’s up 11.8% over last year.

  Here’s a look at Stryker’s annual earnings:

  

  For 2026, Stryker expects earnings between $14.90 and $15.10 per share, and organic-net-sales growth of 8.0% to 9.5%. If that’s correct, then it would be another good year for SYK.

  That’s all for now. The stock market will be closed on Friday in honor of Good Friday. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

  – Eddy

• Morning News: March 31, 2026
  Eddy Elfenbein, March 31st, 2026 at 7:08 am

  War’s First Inflation Hit Arrives in the Euro Area

  China’s Pivot to Vietnam Blows Hole in Trump’s Made-in-USA Plan

  Why Is the Japanese Yen So Weak — and Will Authorities Intervene?

  A $50 Trillion National Debt In 2030 Will Signal Opposite of Debt Problem

  US Bonds Are Caught in a Tug-of-War Between Inflation and Growth

  Who Is Laffing Now?

  Powell Says Fed Can Look Past Oil Shock, but Warns Patience Has Limits

  Oil and Gas Prices Continue to Rise in Choppy Trade

  Energy Stocks Set to Beat Broader Market by Biggest Margin Ever

  Fresh Food Distributors Add Surcharges as Fuel Costs Rise

  Trump Tax Law’s Expansion of Affordable Housing Credit Hits Snag

  Government Attacks on Credit Cards Won’t Bring Down Prices

  Private Lenders Delay Reckoning with Payment Concessions on Stressed Debt

  U.S. Banks Raising Borrowing Costs for Private Credit Funds as AI Fears Pummel Valuations

  JPMorgan Takes On American Dream in Latest Firmwide Initiative

  Private Equity’s Growing Appetite for Fast Food in Japan

  Japan Is Placing a Multibillion-Dollar Bet on the US Housing Market

  Lilly to Buy Sleep Drug Maker Centessa in $7.8 Billion Deal

  Biogen to Buy Apellis for $5.6 Billion to Boost Kidney Franchise

  Unilever Food Arm to Join With McCormick in $44.8 Billion Deal

  Unilever’s $40 Billion Food Sale Augurs a More Beautiful Future

  Whoop Raises $575 Million at a $10 Billion Valuation on Its Way to an IPO

  Google Partner Tenex Raises $250 Million for AI Security Services

  The Sudden Fall of OpenAI’s Most Hyped Product Since ChatGPT

  Exxon Scientists Had Doubts About Algae Biofuels. The Oil Giant Touted Them Anyway.

  Delta to Tap Amazon Satellite-Internet Service for In-Flight Wi-Fi

  Hegseth’s Culture Wars Are Inviting a Military Disaster

  A Crackdown on Dreamers Is a Crackdown on the American Dream

  The DC Streetcar Was Desired. It Just Wasn’t Worth It

  How a Massive KitKat Heist Turned Into Crisis PR Gold

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• Morning News: March 30, 2026
  Eddy Elfenbein, March 30th, 2026 at 7:05 am

  Trump Claims Iran Gave In to US Demands, Considers Seizing Oil

  Oil Jumps on Signs of Escalation of Middle East War

  The Oil Market Is Moving Into Demand Destruction Mode

  The Strait of Hormuz Oil Shock Is Now Heading West

  Oil Shipping Rates Surge as US Barrels Replace Middle East Supply

  Why the Iran War May Force Countries to Rely Less on Natural Gas

  This Is What Happens When the Gas Runs Out

  Indian Economy Faces Risks on Multiple Fronts From Middle East Conflict

  Japan Steps Up Yen Warnings as Mideast War Stokes Inflation Concerns

  Eurozone Business Confidence Falls on Iran War

  Government Bonds Rally Around the World on Slowdown Concerns

  Fed Officials Signal That Rate Cuts May Be Over

  Two Data Points to Consider a Year Since Trump’s Tariff Liberation Day

  Swiss Cling on to Cash as Survey Shows Payment App Use Stalling

  BBVA to Sell Romania Business to Raiffeisen for $680 Million

  A 35-Year-Old Crypto Bro Helped Pakistan Win Over Trump World

  Is Another Financial Crisis Lurking in Private Credit?

  Private Equity’s Brutal Side Deals Leave Lenders Grasping in the Dark

  Private-Credit Wobbles Could Prove Perilous for Trump

  Three Reasons the Stock Market Can Endure the War

  Too Bad the Robinhood Crowd Isn’t Buying This Dip

  Why the Cost of Your Coffee Has Soared—and Isn’t Going Down Soon

  $100,000 in Social Security Benefits Is Too Much

  How Working in America Became So Joyless

  Chromebook Remorse: Tech Backlash at Schools Extends Beyond Phones

  Teens Sick of Their iPhones Are ‘Mallmaxxing’

  How the Federal Government Turned Intel Into a Puppet

  Nvidia Is Credit Personified While the Fed Is a Pointless Distraction

  Inside the Odd—and Oddly Human—Work of Teaching AI to Talk

  Why Corporate AI Mandates Don’t Work

  LaGuardia Crash Bolsters Case for Using AI in Air Control Towers

  BYD Posts First Annual Profit Decline in Four Years

  Ford and GM Increase Destination Charges to $2,795 on Full-Size Trucks

  World War III’s First Shots Will Be Fired in Space

  Food Megamergers Hardly Ever Work. Could McCormick-Unilever Be Different?

  Sysco to Buy Restaurant Depot in $29 Billion Deal

  WNBA Players Had an Ace Up Their Sleeve in Pay Negotiations: A Nobel Laureate

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• Morning News: March 27, 2026
  Eddy Elfenbein, March 27th, 2026 at 7:03 am

  Ukraine Is Running Out of Cash to Pay for the War as Aid Falters

  Russians’ Trust in Putin Hits Wartime Low as Fatigue Grows

  The Pentagon Needs to Give Better Answers on Its ‘Golden Dome’

  The Iran War Is Now All About the Future of Hormuz

  China Hits Back at U.S. With New Trade Probes Ahead of Trump-Xi Summit

  Riyadh, Dubai Delay Finance Events as Iran War Disrupts Region

  Iran War Threatens to Reverse Central Banks’ Role as Major Gold Buyers

  How the Iran War Is Costing the Economy Its Buffers

  Fertilizer Maker Yara Warns Farmers Are Being Squeezed by Price Surge Amid War

  Resurgent Inflation Tests Faith in Fed’s Willingness to Tame It

  Economists See War Pushing US Inflation Above 3%, Hurting Growth

  Oaktree to Meet 8.5% Private Credit Fund Redemptions in Full

  Homophones, Plurals and Language ‘Rulescucks’ Are Roiling Prediction Markets

  He Did Not Intend to Lose $50 Million. No One Does

  Health-Care Costs Are Forcing Terrible Trade-Offs

  The Startup Selling Full-Body Scans as the Future of Health Care

  Why College Graduates Feel Betrayed

  Tracking Trump’s Efforts to Reshape Cultural Institutions

  Inside the Sprawling World of MAGA Merchandise

  Crypto for a Home? Coinbase Brings Token-Backed Down Payments to Housing Market

  CrossCountry Mortgage to Acquire Two Harbors

  An Invisible Bottleneck: A Helium Shortage Threatens the Chip Industry

  Is Big Tech Facing a Big Tobacco Moment?

  SoftBank Secures Record $40 Billion Bridge Loan for OpenAI Stake

  Export Controls Risk Forfeiting the AI Race

  An AI Upheaval Is Coming for Media. This Journalist Is Already All In.

  Pernod Ricard Shares Pare Losses as Investors Warm to Mooted Brown-Forman Tie-Up

  Why Kraft Heinz’s CEO Decided Not to Split the Company in Two

  That McDonald’s Viral Video Is Good for Memes. But Sales?

  Why Are Theater Tickets So Much Cheaper in London Than New York?

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• Morning News: March 26, 2026
  Eddy Elfenbein, March 26th, 2026 at 7:04 am

  Oil Prices Go Higher and Global Stocks Fall

  How Kharg Island May Change the Trajectory of the Iran War

  Trump Says the Energy Shock Will Be Short-Lived. CEOs Paint a Scarier Picture

  War Hits Global Economy With OECD Seeing 4.2% US Inflation

  Asia Is Getting Crushed Between Oil Prices and the Dollar

  How Japan Can Use the Oil Market to Support the Yen

  A Saudi Six Flags. A Wynn Casino. Gulf Megaprojects Caught in the Iran Conflict.

  The Oil Price Shock Could Make Italian Ice More Expensive

  Finance Isn’t Prepared for an Iran Crisis. It Should Be

  The Problems With Victor Davis Hanson and Economics

  EU Lawmakers Approve US Trade Deal After Several Delays

  Holders of Russian Debt Gain Easier Path to Payment at Euroclear

  Iran War’s Impact on European Financial System ‘Contained’ for Now, ECB’s De Guindos Says

  Federal Reserve Posted Loss of $18.7 Billion in 2025

  Wall Street Bonus Pool Jumps to a Record $49.2 Billion for 2025

  How the Trump Administration Is Testing Fed Independence on Bank Rules

  Apollo, Blue Owl Lament Private Credit’s Liquidity Confusion

  Private Credit Has an AI Recovery Problem

  Investors Switch to Cash From Stocks and Bonds Like It’s 2022

  Passive Index Investing and Large Shareholders’ Pursuit of Political Goals

  Corebridge Financial, Equitable Holdings to Merge

  JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon Says Remote Work Breeds ‘Rope-a-Dope Politics’ and Stunts Young Workers’ Growth

  They Gave Her Business a Lifeline, Then Froze All Her Money

  Dominican Republic Is Next Frontier in US-China Space Race

  As ChatGPT and Claude Replace Quants, How Can We Unleash AI Capital Markets Era?

  Meta and YouTube Found Negligent in Social-Media Addiction Trial

  Meta and Google’s Addiction Verdict Turns the Social Media Tide

  Meta, Google Risk Big Tobacco-Like Fallout After Addiction Trial

  Snapchat Investigated in Europe Over Child Safety Policies

  KKR to Make 15 Times Its Investment With Sale of Data-Center Cooling Business

  Losses Pile Up for Beef Slaughterhouse Owners

  A Film Studio Moved to Montana for Tax Breaks. Will It Benefit the Locals?

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• Morning News: March 25, 2026
  Eddy Elfenbein, March 25th, 2026 at 7:05 am

  The Choking of Hormuz

  The Oil Supply Crunch Is Spreading From the Gulf to the Rest of the World

  In Iran War, Cheap Drones Remain Wild Card

  Defense Spending, and the 5% of GDP Fallacy

  What Happened After a U.S. Warship Hit an Iranian Mine in 1988

  The ‘Don Tzu’ Solution to Ending the Iran War

  Oil Theft Is Burning a Billion-Dollar Hole in the West Texas Economy

  Gas, Not Oil, Is Where US Energy Dominance Matters

  Why Are We Clinging To a Law That Makes Gasoline More Expensive?

  What Soaring Fuel Costs Mean for Your Air Travel

  The US Needs More Air Traffic Controllers. Is It Safe to Fly?

  The Lines, the Prices, the Anxiety: Can Air Travel Get Any Worse?

  There’s One Clear Winner From the Long TSA Wait Times at Airports

  Will Trump (and Russ Vought) Protect Your Financial Data?

  In Washington’s War on Data, the Economy and Public Will Lose

  Argentina’s 50-Year-Old Coup Still Resonates

  How a Dirty Money Trail From Venezuela to Iran Brought Down a Swiss Bank

  Gold Has Been a Terrible Iran War Hedge — Why?

  A Coach, Mechanic or Housekeeper, but for Your Finances

  US Mortgage Rates Jump Further to Five-Month High of 6.43%

  Tricolor Implosion Pits Wall Street Against Immigrant Car Buyers

  ICE Has Left Minneapolis. The Economic Hangover Hasn’t.

  The Death Spiral of a $250 Million Satellite Startup

  How Selling to a Repressive Regime Almost Broke a Tech Firm

  How the Iran War Could Split the AI Boom in Two

  Adani Eyes Partnerships With Meta, Google Amid Data Center Boom

  Meta Targets $9 Trillion Valuation With New Executive Incentive Program

  CoreWeave Shares Lag Rival Nebius in Wild Year Since IPO

  Merck to Acquire Terns Pharmaceuticals in $6.7 Billion Deal

  Disney CEO’s First Week Marred by ‘Fortnite,’ OpenAI Woes

  The Company Where Driving the Wrong Car to Work Can Get You a Ticket

  Chewy Posts Higher Profit, Revenue

  Labubu Maker’s Earnings Show It’s Not Toying Around, But Investors Aren’t Amused

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• CWS Market Review – March 24, 2026
  Eddy Elfenbein, March 24th, 2026 at 5:34 pm

  (This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

  I recently came across a stunning fact in the Wall Street Journal. It said that over the last two years, the healthcare sector has accounted for 77% of all jobs growth.

  That’s one of those facts that initially strikes you as amazing, but the more you think about it, the more it makes sense. As the rest of the economy gets weaker, the healthcare sector is doing most of the heavy lifting.

  Check out the growth of healthcare jobs:

  

  The WSJ notes that over the last year, the U.S. economy has added 156,000 new jobs and healthcare was responsible for 375,000 new jobs. That means that if we take away the healthcare sector, then the economy is shedding jobs. If you’re not at the doctor’s office, then you’re probably in a recession.

  Don’t expect these trends to let up anytime soon. According to the WSJ, by 2035, the number of Americans over the age of 85 is expected to double. Now let’s look at what’s had the market so annoyed recently.

  The Fed’s Next Move May Be a Rate Hike

  The stock market is starting to show some cracks. During the day on Friday, the S&P 500 fell to its lowest point in six months. We got a minor relief rally on Monday, but Tuesday was another down day. The S&P 500 has closed lower eight times in the last eleven sessions. The index is below its 50- and 200-day moving averages. Historically, that’s not a good sign.

  

  There’s even talk of the Fed’s next move being an interest rate hike. To be sure, that possibility is still a long way from being a certainty, but the futures traders peg the odds of a Fed hike before the end of the year at around 20%. The odds of an upcoming interest rate cut are…well, in the garbage can. In a very short period of time, the odds of a Fed cut went from probable to not happening.

  If you ever want to know what the Fed is thinking, the cheap and easy way is to look at the yield on the two-year Treasury. On February 28, the two-year yield was at 3.38%. By March 20, it got to 3.88%. That’s a jump of 50 basis points in less than one month. War has been the forerunner of inflation so many times in history.

  What’s interesting is that the price of gold has been dropping lately. When hostilities started, gold was around $5,400 per ounce. Yesterday, gold got down below $4,100 per ounce. Gold often rallies during times of geopolitical stress. This time, the drop in gold makes sense if real interest rates rise. In plain English, lower gold hints that the Fed will have to raise rates well above the level of inflation. That’s not good for the economy.

  There’s still a lot of fear in the markets, and the big issue is, not surprisingly, the price for oil. While oil is still well below its peak (near $120) from two weeks ago, it’s still elevated. For what it’s worth, betting markets don’t see traffic in the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal for several weeks.

  The market was helped on Monday by an optimistic tweet from President Trump regarding “a resolution of hostilities” in the Middle East. The Iranians, however, said there have been no direct talks. Oil dropped down to $88 per barrel on Monday which is the lowest in two weeks. Before the war, oil was around $65 per barrel.

  Oil stocks have been the big winner so far this year. The S&P 500 Energy ETF (XLE) is up about 38% in 2026, and the year isn’t yet one quarter over. I also like to keep my eye on the performance of the S&P 500 Industrial Sector (XLI). This is often an overlooked part of the market, but it’s very important for the overall economy.

  Starting in December, industrials performed very well compared with the rest of the market. It was one of their best runs in 20 years, and it lasted through February. Since hostilities started, industrials have started to lag. That could be a sign for the entire economy.

  

  We still don’t know the impact of Operation Epic Fury, outside of oil prices. It’s true that the U.S. economy is far less dependent on oil than it used to be. We’ll soon learn more. Next Friday, April 3, the government will release the March jobs report. This will show us how well the economy has been holding up.

  We should also bear in mind that the labor market has been quite weak for the last several months. Less jobs growth means less money to go shopping and that cuts into corporate profits. For February, the U.S. economy shed 93,000 jobs.

  Abbott Labs Drops to a Good Price

  One of our favorite Buy List stocks, Abbott Labs (ABT), has performed poorly. That puts off a lot of investors, but I always pay attention when the stock of a good company does poorly. That’s where you can often find a good bargain.

  On January 22, Abbott reported solid earnings results, but the shares took a bath. Abbott Labs reported fiscal-Q4 earnings of $1.50 per share. That beat expectations by one penny. That was also inside the company’s own guidance for Q4 earnings of $1.47 to $1.53 per share. Abbott’s quarterly earnings were up 12% over last year.

  For the full year, Abbott made $5.10 per share, which was up 10% over last year. CEO Robert Ford said, “Abbott is well positioned for accelerating growth in 2026.”

  

  Despite the earnings beat, the stock got dinged due to poor results from its baby-formula business. The company offered mostly optimistic guidance. For 2026, Abbott sees earnings coming in between $5.55 and $5.80 per share. At the midpoint, that’s 10% growth. Wall Street had been expecting $5.68 per share. Abbott sees full-year organic-sales growth of 6.5% to 7.5%. For Q1, Abbott expects earnings between $1.12 and $1.18 per share. Wall Street had been expecting $1.19 per share.

  Abbott’s Q4 sales rose by 4.4%. That’s organic growth of 3.0% to 3.8% when excluding Covid-testing sales. For 2025, sales were up 5.7%. That’s organic growth of 5.5%, or 6.7% when not counting Covid sales.

  Abbott had Q4 sales of $11.5 billion, which was $300 million below expectations. Nutrition sales were $1.9 billion, which was well below expectations. Abbott said it was forced to raise the price for baby formula when manufacturing costs increased.

  Medical devices are Abbott’s largest business. Quarterly sales were $5.67 billion, which matched estimates. The company just completed its acquisition of Exact Sciences for $21 billion. This should help the company expand its footprint.

  In December, Abbott increased its dividend by 6.8% to 63 cents per share. This marks the 54th year in a row that Abbott has increased its dividend. Since 2020, the dividend has grown by 70%.

  On Tuesday, shares of ABT fell to a new 52-week low. Going by the most recent price, ABT is currently going for about 17 to 18 times this year’s earnings. Bear in mind that Abbott’s estimates tend to be quite conservative. In our premium service, we rate ABT a strong buy up to $115 per share.

  That’s all for now. The first quarter comes to a close next week. On Friday, April 3, we’ll get the jobs report for March. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

  – Eddy

  P.S. You can sign up for our premium service here.

  P.P.S. Here’s something for fun I wrote earlier this week about math and March Madness:

  Today is the day I’ll take something fun and ruin it with math! Who’s with me?

  We’re in the middle of the NCAA basketball tournament. Most brackets are scored linearly, but here’s the big secret: basketball teams generally follow a Power Law distribution.

  Simply put, this means that the difference in quality of teams tends to get smaller the lower you go. In practical terms, this means the #1 seed is really, really good. The quality difference between #2 and #3 tends to be smaller than the difference between #1 and #2. This continues through the entire bracket.

  How can we see this in action? A good example is the bettor’s favorite, the #12 vs #5 game. Despite the difference of seven places, the teams aren’t that far apart. Historically, #12 wins about 35% of the time. It’s an upset, but a pretty minor one.

  Interestingly, that’s close to the record of #3 against #1 (36%). In other words, the implied quality difference between those two spots is about the same difference with the seven spots between #5 and #12. That’s the Power Law in action.

  For basketball fans, the Power Law means avoiding the #1 as long as you can, or hoping they get knocked out early. Earlier I mentioned the #12 seed. They’ve made it to the Sweet Sixteen 22 times, and 20 times they’ve faced off against #1. They’ve lost every single time.

  The Power Law means the worst seed is #8 or #9. That means you have a very hard time getting to the Sweet 16 because you face #1 in Round 2. #1 has beaten #9 92% of the time.

  The best seed is #11. Why? Because you avoid #1 for a long time. Assuming the higher seed wins, #11 plays #6, then #3, then #2, then #1.

  Here’s the most remarkable stat. #11 has made to the Final Four more than #16, #15, #14, #13, #12, #10, #9, #8 and #7. #11 is tied with #6 and since they play each other in the first round, this means #6 follows the same course as #11.

  The NFL avoids these issues because it “reseeds” its playoffs. Personally, I prefer how March Madness does it.

• Morning News: March 24, 2026
  Eddy Elfenbein, March 24th, 2026 at 7:06 am

  War Knocks Global Economy With Dual Shock to Growth and Prices

  Europe Shows Early Signs of the Iran War’s Economic Costs

  Iran Strikes Persist Even as Trump Claims Talks to End War

  Oil Prices Rise a Day After 10% Plunge

  For Western Oil Companies, War in Iran Means Bigger Profits, and Risks

  Investors Question Whether Quick Peace in Iran Is Possible

  How Investors Can Cope With TACO Whiplash

  China’s $1.6 Trillion Fund Rekindles Ties With US Money Managers

  Are US Recessions Going Extinct? That’s So 2003

  The Real Debt Crisis Is That There Will Be No Debt Crisis

  The End of FTC Political Warfare: Is It Coming Soon?

  Cliffwater’s Father-Son Duo Is Lashed by Private Credit’s Brewing Storm

  Gold at $10,000? Market Watchers Hold Firm on Forecasts Despite Bullion Bear Market Slide

  Joe Kent Is a Conspiracy Theorist, Not a Principled Dissenter

  Democrats Need a Better Affordability Agenda

  Young Graduates Face the Grimmest Job Market in Years

  JPMorgan Sees ‘National Security Risk’ in Old Grid Networks

  Trump Sets Up ‘Pax Silica’ Fund to Reduce Global Dependencies

  Battery Metal Curbs Sting Chinese Miners Who Spent Big in Africa

  Apollo to Acquire Nippon Sheet Glass in $3.7 Billion Deal

  AI Infrastructure Will Win U.S. the AI Race

  How Nvidia Keeps Its Iron Grip on the AI Boom

  Musk’s Terafab Fever Dream Exposes Reality of the AI Chip Crunch

  Tesla Sales Rebound in Europe After Monthslong Slump

  The Chinese Billionaire Who Says America’s EV Market Is Doomed Without Him

  United Air Launches Record Fleet Upgrade With New Polaris Seats

  Reality TV Confronts a Harsh TV Reality

  Xi Jinping’s Morality Crackdown Has a New Victim: The Global Wine Trade

  Smithfield Foods Sales Rise on Packaged-Meats Growth

  Red Lobster’s Last Gasp

  Estée Lauder in Talks to Acquire Spain’s Puig to Create Global Beauty Giant

  Estée Lauder Buying Puig Doesn’t Pass the Smell Test

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• Morning News: March 23, 2026
  Eddy Elfenbein, March 23rd, 2026 at 7:01 am

  Iranian Missile Strikes Are Costing Big Oil Billions in Lost Revenue

  Which Countries Depend the Most on Persian Gulf Oil and Gas

  War’s Attacks on Energy Could Turn Economic Shock Into Long-Term Damage

  $5 Diesel is Crushing Truckers. It Will Soon Be Felt Across the Economy

  Oil Prices Tumble and Stocks Rise

  As War Disrupts India’s Gulf Ties, Economy Faces ‘New Broadside’

  Dollar Scarcity in Venezuela Forces Small Firms to Raise Prices, Turn to Crypto

  South Korea Names BIS Official as Next Central Bank Chief

  The Dollar’s Strength Has Little to Do With “Exorbitant Privilege”

  Amid Mounting Risks, the Fed Wisely Puts Rates on Hold

  The Fed’s Most Awkward Leadership Transition Is Coming

  Nasdaq Seeks to Build Crypto Into Wall Street’s Market Plumbing

  The Trump Administration Turns a Blind Eye to White-Collar Crime

  Private Credit Is Making Bank Investors Antsy, Too

  Victory Capital Fires Back at Peltz’s Trian as Janus Bidding War Drags On

  Berkshire Hathaway to Acquire $1.8 Billion Stake in Japan’s Tokio Marine

  Fink Says AI Threatens to Leave Masses Behind Unless They Invest

  Why Are Young People Taking So Many Unwise Financial Risks?

  Lawmakers to Introduce Bipartisan Bill Banning Sports Bets on Prediction Markets

  To Achieve Greater Electricity Affordability, We Need a True Marketplace

  The Housing Bargain Hiding in Plain Sight

  Activist Elliott Builds Big Stake in Chip-Design Software Maker Synopsys

  Apple’s Heir Apparent Steps Into the Spotlight

  Tesla, SpaceX Plan to Build New Chip Factory in Texas

  China Is Ripping Up the Rulebook for the Global Auto Industry

  The Economy Cabin on Airplanes Keeps on Shrinking

  Even Rich Travelers Are Complaining About Spiking Prices

  Why Healthcare Is Doing the Heavy Lifting in This Job Market

  Pfizer Says Long-Awaited Lyme Vaccine Was Effective in Study

  Danone to Buy Nutrition Company Huel

  The Veteran Podcasters Hanging up Their Headphones

  Americans Are Spending More Than Ever on Manicures and Doggy Daycare

  Not All Malls Are Struggling

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• Morning News: March 20, 2026
  Eddy Elfenbein, March 20th, 2026 at 7:03 am

  How Israel Went From ‘Model Ally’ to Cautionary Tale

  Iran Leaves an Isolated Trump Grappling With Historic Oil Crisis

  Removing Sanctions on Iran’s Crude Isn’t an Easy Fix for Oil Prices

  Scramble for Jet Fuel Shows How Energy Shortages Are Rippling Across Asia

  Venture Global vs. Shell: How a Startup Won Big In LNG

  Australia’s New South Wales State Bans Future Coal Mines

  Trump Just Shook Up Global Interest-Rate Policy Again

  Iran War Scrambles Calculus for Central Banks

  Wall Street Banks With Large Trading Units May Be Biggest Winners Under US Capital Plan

  Treasuries Slide as Elevated Oil Prices Fuel Inflation Fears

  A Whiff of Stagflation

  Thomas Massie Is Right About Government Spending For the Wrong Reasons

  An Underdog Trump Ally in Latin America Becomes an Investor Magnet

  Trump Reorganizes Foreign Aid at Fraction of USAID’s Size

  The Luxury Life of British Expats in Dubai Faces a Reality Check

  The US Must Not Become a Nation of Emigrants

  The Postal Service’s Last-Mile Strategy Is a Dead End

  Record Number of Student Loan Borrowers Are in Delinquency and Default

  Finally, an Opera About Economics

  Can Jonah Peretti Save BuzzFeed From Extinction?

  A Vegas Gambler, a Hollywood Power Player and the Legal Fight Roiling Paramount

  SAP CEO Says Defense Industry Sales Are Fastest Growing Business

  The Long Farewell to Mark Zuckerberg’s Metaverse

  Don’t Regulate Away Playing Field-Leveling AI

  Super Micro Co-Founder Charged With Sending AI Tech to China

  Publisher Pulls ‘Shy Girl’ Horror Novel After AI Allegations

  Uber’s Defense Against Robotaxis Is Funding Them

  Tesla Finally Has Its First Semi-Truck and It’s Already a Hit With Truckers

  Unilever Looks to Offload $33 Billion Food Business to McCormick

  BTS, the Most Popular Boy Band Ever, Returns to a Changed Industry

  How Geopolitics Threaten K-Pop’s Ambitions in China

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