Archive for March, 2026

• Morning News: March 5, 2026
  Eddy Elfenbein, March 5th, 2026 at 7:05 am

  Dubai and Its Neighbors Face a Huge Dilemma Over Iran

  Iran’s Drones Cost a Fraction of the U.S. Weapons Shooting Them Down

  Oil Tanker Suffers Explosion as Risks Spread Wider Into Gulf

  Oil Rises as Iran War Piles Further Stress on Energy Supplies

  This Oil Shock Hits Differently for the US

  How War in the Persian Gulf Could Spill Into the U.S. Economy

  Energy Dominance Won’t Stop US Fuel Costs Pushing Higher

  China Tells Top Refiners to Halt Diesel and Gasoline Exports

  China Sets Lowest Growth Target Since 1991 as Old Model Falters

  America Second, Israel First?

  Iran War Punctures Strategy of ‘Sell America, Buy Asia’

  How Data Centers Became a Casualty of War

  Wall Street Is Betting on Tariff Refunds After Supreme Court Ruling

  They Made It Through the 24 Hours That Rocked South Korea’s Markets

  What the Extraordinary Market Volatility in Asia Says About Energy and A.I.

  World Bank Says $50 Billion Committed to Africa Power Plans

  Why EV Chargers Are Booming Despite Slumping New Car Sales

  Why Gold Stablecoins Will Not Dethrone “King Dollar”

  Private Credit Is Learning All About Liquidity

  BlackRock Slashes Another Private Loan Value From 100 to Zero

  US Job Cut Announcements Ebb After Jumping at Start of 2026

  ‘No Tax on Overtime’ Isn’t All It Seems for Some Workers

  Anthropic Reopens Talks with Pentagon After Feud Over AI Safety

  Wall Street Sees AI’s ‘Creative Destruction’ Coming For Entire Companies

  China’s Traditional Businesses Try to Buy Into AI Boom

  Musk’s Freewheeling Tweets Land Him in Legal Jeopardy Again

  DHL Parent Deutsche Post Expects Earnings Growth Despite Uncertain Conditions

  Eli Lilly Launches Program to Help Boost Employer Coverage of Obesity Drugs in U.S.

  $2.5 Million Rift Pits Cannabis Pioneer Against Group That Backed Her

  Kroger Offers Cautious Sales Forecast as New CEO Takes Over

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• Morning News: March 4, 2026
  Eddy Elfenbein, March 4th, 2026 at 7:03 am

  The High Stakes of Keeping the Strait of Hormuz Open

  Energy Price Fears Ripple Through Global Markets

  How the Iran War Is Choking Off the World’s Oil and Gas

  Iran Conflict Is Starting to Boost Gasoline Prices

  Why American Frackers Aren’t Rushing to Pump More Oil

  US to Exempt Rosneft’s German Unit From Sanctions Indefinitely

  The Iran War’s Most Precious Commodity Isn’t Oil

  How Anonymous Bettors Cashed In on the Iran Strike, Just Hours Before It Happened

  Chaotic Prediction Markets Need Reining In

  ‘Whatever It Takes’ Rattles Global Markets

  Stock Crash Wipes Out Leveraged Bets in Korea, Sowing Panic

  OECD Sees Rising Refinancing Risk as Bond Sales Surge

  Bessent Says Trump’s Tariff Hike to 15% Likely This Week

  Top Fed Official, Wary of Inflation, Calls for Extended Rate Pause

  Kashkari Says Fed Can Sit Tight as War Clouds the Outlook

  Big Lenders’ Risky Loans Are Rattling Wall Street

  MrBeast Is Getting Into Financial Services. Parents Should Pay Attention.

  American Housing Dream, American Housing Nightmare

  Homeowners Stay Put for 12 Years, Stifling the US Housing Market

  To Cut Housing Costs, Some States Are Easing Fire Safety Rules

  Trump Administration, in Reversal, Tries to Continue Fight Against Law Firms

  A Tiny Silicon Valley Startup Envisions Computing Beyond the Semiconductor

  How the Digital Age Sparked An Analog Revival

  The US Has Enough Missiles for This War But Not the Next One

  Claude AI Helped Bomb Iran. But How Exactly?

  Anthropic Nears $20 Billion Revenue Run Rate Amid Pentagon Feud

  Sahm: Jack Dorsey Is Wrong: Pro-Worker AI Is Possible

  Schaeffler Shares Plunge After Guidance Falls Short of Expectations

  U.S. Automakers Risk Being Reduced to Niche Producers of Gas Vehicles

  ASM International Posts Net Profit Above Market Views

  Netflix Won By ‘Losing’ the Battle for Warner Brothers Discovery

  Paramount-Warner Deal Promises to Shake Up Streaming

  Activist Elliott Invests $1 Billion in Pinterest

  Bath & Body Works Reports Lower Profit

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• CWS Market Review – March 3, 2026
  Eddy Elfenbein, March 3rd, 2026 at 6:32 pm

  (This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

  This weekend, the U.S. military commenced Operation Epic Fury with its mission of toppling the theocratic regime in Iran.

  I’m far from an expert on defense issues or geopolitics (although I am a retired PFC), so I have no valuable insights on the efficacy of the mission or its potential outcome.

  

  Around here, our concern is with finance and how the markets are reacting. For now, markets are clearly nervous. On Monday, the U.S. stock market opened lower. At one point, the S&P 500 was down 1.2% on the day. As you’d expect, many defense and aerospace stocks held up well along with energy stocks. Several travel-related stocks were among the losers.

  Let me caution you that I see absolutely no reason for investors to sell. If anything, a downturn could present us with a good buying opportunity.

  Bear in mind that a lot of successful investing boils down to doing nothing when everybody else is panicking. As the great Jesse Livermore said, “It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that?”

  Got it.

  Despite the market’s weak morning on Monday, the index finished slightly positive by the closing bell. I’m sure a lot of people didn’t see that coming, and it’s a good reminder that the market loves to do what’s not expected.

  Today we saw similar action but with even greater swings. At one point this morning, the S&P 500 was down over 2.1% and it briefly reached a three-month low. Like on Monday, the market reversed course and eventually closed lower by 0.9%.

  Also today, there was a clear “run for safety.” By that, I mean that much of the losses were concentrated among High Beta stocks while the Low Volatility sector held up far better (still down, mind you, but not as much).

  In plain English, the conservative stocks remained calm while the volatile stocks were more…well, volatile.

  Check out this chart which shows the S&P 500 Low Volatility Index (in blue) compared with the S&P 500 High Beta index (in red). Since early January, Low Vol has been doing much better. This comes after last year when High Beta thrashed Low Vol.

  

  We can also see this flock-to-safety among size categories. The big guys in the S&P 100 were down just 0.6% today, but the small-cap Russell 2000 was down close to 1.8% today.

  Not surprisingly, the price of oil gapped up this week, but it wasn’t a panic move. One-fifth of the world’s oil consumption goes through the Strait of Hormuz. There could be a dramatic price spike, and that would certainly hurt consumer spending.

  We saw that happen after Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait, and that helped tip the economy into a recession. It can take a while before a disruption in the oil market appears as prices at the pump, and the odds of higher prices increase the longer the military operation lasts.

  On Monday, we got the ISM manufacturing index report. This is a good report to watch because it usually comes out on the first business day of each month. Monday’s report said that the ISM Manufacturing Index for February was 52.4. That’s down a small bit from January’s number of 52.6. Wall Street had been expecting 51.8.

  Any ISM number above 50 means that the factory sector of the economy is growing. This was the second month in a row of expansion, and it comes after 10 months in a row of contraction.

  The Federal Reserve doesn’t meet again for another two weeks. It’s very doubtful that the Fed will make any move on interest rates at its upcoming meeting. In fact, it probably won’t make a move in the meeting again after that. The June meeting, however, could see some activity, but those odds have fallen some since the military operation started.

  Remember that it’s very likely that Kevin Warsh will take over as the head of the Fed in May. Traders now see a 45% chance that the Fed will cut rates in June. That’s down from 56% a few weeks ago. The consensus on Wall Street is that we’ll have two 0.25% rate cuts before the end of the year.

  On Friday, the government will release the jobs report for February. The January report said the economy created 130,000 new jobs that month. This time, economists expect to see a gain of just 50,000 jobs. A weak jobs number could spur the Fed to act, but at this point, it would have to be a dramatic miss. Now let’s look at one of my favorite little-known stocks.

  Stock Focus: Allison Transmission

  In our premium newsletter, we’ve recently finished all the earnings reports for Q4. (By the way, you can sign up for it here!) There’s one of our stocks in particular that I wanted to share with you, which is Allison Transmission (ALSN). In three-and-a-half months, shares of Allison are up close to 60% for us.

  Allison has a market value of about $10 billion. While that may sound like a lot, it’s small potatoes on Wall Street. Only a few analysts cover the stock, which suits me just fine.

  

  On February 23, Allison said it made $1.18 per share. That missed Wall Street’s forecast of $1.46 per share. The good news is that Allison gave reassuring guidance, and the shares rallied 4.4% the day after the report. After that, it closed higher for four straight days until finally closing lower today.

  Allison specializes in making vehicle propulsion solutions, primarily fully automatic transmissions and electrified propulsion systems (including hybrid and fully electric options) for medium- and heavy-duty vehicles.

  You can find their products in almost any vehicle including buses, motor homes and even the Abrams tank.

  I added Allison to our 2025 Buy List, and it was a flop, but we held on and I’m glad we did. Once again, it was our sitting that did the trick.

  The big news recently is that Allison completed the acquisition of Dana Incorporated’s Off-Highway Drive & Motion Systems business. This deal helps expands their footprint.

  For all of 2025, Allison had sales of $3.01 billion, which matched its forecast. For the year, Allison made $7.33 per share. That’s down from $8.31 per share in 2024.

  Let’s look at guidance, which is a little complicated due to the Dana deal. For all of 2026, Allison expects sales between $5.575 billion and $5.925 billion, but sales for the Allison Transmission segment are expected to range between $3.025 billion and $3.175 billion. That’s better than I had expected.

  For 2026, Allison expects net income between $600 million and $750 million. That’s compared with $623 million last year. That’s not bad. It works out to net income of roughly $7.25 to $9 per share. If that’s right, then the stock is still going for a decent value. The current Enterprise Value/EBITDA is 11.67.

  I also like that Allison increased its quarterly dividend by 7% to 29 cents per share. The new dividend is payable on March 20, to stockholders of record at the close of business on March 9.

  In our premium issue, I rate Allison a buy up to $130 per share.

  That’s all for now. The next jobs report will be due out this Friday, March 6. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

  – Eddy

• Morning News: March 3, 2026
  Eddy Elfenbein, March 3rd, 2026 at 7:06 am

  Global Economy Is Facing the Prospect of Another Profound Shock

  War, Oil and the World Economy

  Trump Doesn’t Want Democracy in Iran or Anywhere. He Wants Puppets

  Trump’s War on Iran Has Traders Staring Down an Energy Crisis

  Oil Rally Builds as ‘Staggering’ Middle East War Jolts Energy

  The US Has to Reopen the Strait of Hormuz as Soon as Possible

  Airlines Grapple With Disruptions That ‘Far Surpass’ Previous Middle East Conflicts

  ‘Black Swan’ Risks Stalk Container Carriers in Avoiding Iran War

  Tech Developer Syzygy Signs Deals Targeting Massive Boost in Sustainable Jet Fuel Supply

  Coal Power’s Comeback Isn’t Spurring New Investment

  Norway Wealth Fund Makes First Investment in US Renewable Energy Assets

  Dubai’s Status as a Swiss-Style Haven Is Starting to Crack

  Don’t Confuse the Iran War’s MAGA Critics With Most Republicans

  What the Iran Strikes Could Mean for U.S. Inflation

  Dollar Set for Biggest Surge in a Year as Inflation Fears Mount

  Dimon Says Exuberant Market Doesn’t Match ‘Fine’ Economy

  Is Free Trade Worth the Cost in Lives Lost?

  Will Another Wave of Tariff Uncertainty Hold Economy Back?

  The Unexpected Winners From Trump’s New Global Tariff

  Tariffs Confound Small Businesses Again

  Even Before He Reaches the Fed, Warsh’s Path to Rate Cuts Is Getting Tougher

  Markets Have Evolved. So Should the SEC’s Disclosure Rules

  Blackstone’s Flagship Private Credit Fund Hit by Record Redemptions

  BlackRock Says Index Funds Alone Aren’t Enough for US Retirees

  Palantir Is Back on Wall Street’s Buy List After a 38% Plunge

  Is Europe’s AI Darling Mistral Becoming a Consultant?

  Jack Dorsey Blamed AI for Block’s Massive Layoffs. Skeptics Aren’t Buying It.

  Automakers’ Dilemma: Invest in New Tech or Stick to Gas Cars?

  Toyota’s Buyout Deal is a Bigger Win for Elliott Than for Governance

  Best Buy Surges After Results, Outlook Better Than Feared

  Target Sales Just Fell Again. Now Its New CEO Plans for Turnaround.

  Target Surprises With Upbeat Forecast on Improving Demand

  Viking Enters Year With Strong Bookings, Earnings Top Estimates

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• Morning News: March 2, 2026
  Eddy Elfenbein, March 2nd, 2026 at 7:02 am

  Middle East Conflict Imposes Another Stress Test on Global Resilience

  Trump’s Iran Strikes Usher In an Era of Unrestrained American Power

  Decades of Presidents Ignoring the War Powers Act Led Us Here

  Iran Strikes Won’t Succeed Without a Real Strategy

  China Showing Few Signs It Will Directly Supply Arms to Iran

  The Big Bet on European Defense Stocks Is Getting Expensive

  Oil Prices Jump After Iran Attack, Pointing to Economic Risks

  Iran Conflict Puts Oil Shock Back on Asian Central Banks’ Radar

  Oil Spikes as Middle East War All But Halts Hormuz Ship Strait

  Any Chance of a Fed Interest-Rate Cut In 2026 Is ‘Evaporating Before Our Very Eyes’ with Iran War Set to Stoke Oil Prices

  Traders Trim BOE, Fed Rate-Cut Bets as War Spurs Price Fears

  Swiss National Bank Reports Annual Profit of $34 Billion

  A Guide to the Fault Lines in the Credit Market

  Want to Boost U.S. Affordability? Get Rid of Tariffs

  Stock Investors Brace for Iran War’s Economic Repercussions

  Trump’s SEC Gave Companies More Power Over Investors. Lawsuits Pushed Them Back

  Berkshire’s New CEO Lays Out How He Will Pick Up Where the Buffett Era Left Off

  Will Stablecoins Strengthen the Dollar, and Stall the Rise of Gold?

  Rio Tinto Approves $473 Million South Africa Mine Expansion

  Why California is Reconsidering Nuclear Energy After 50-Year Ban

  Anthropic’s Claude Chatbot Goes Down For Thousands of Users

  OpenAI Steps Over a Red Line Anthropic Refused to Cross

  Mobile Chiefs Reckon With AI Boom and Geopolitics at MWC 2026

  BlackRock’s GIP and EQT to Buy AES Corp in $33.4 Billion Deal

  The Obscure Fee Costing You More to Buy a Car

  Asian Manufacturers Show Resilience as Demand Rises

  Toyota Bumps Offer for Supplier to $30 Billion, in a Victory for Activist Fund Elliott

  Netflix’s Co-CEO Explains Why He Quit the Warner Bros. Fight

  China Spent Big on an African Media Empire, But No One’s Watching

  In Alysa Liu and Eileen Gu, China and America See a Mirror Image

  What to Know About the Live Nation Antitrust Trial

  The Third-Largest Coffee Chain in the U.S. Actually Sells Very Little Hot Coffee

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