The 2017 Buy List

The 2017 trading year is on the books! For 2017, the S&P 500 gained 19.42% while our Buy List gained 20.58%. However, if we include dividends (and total return is what really counts), then the S&P 500 gained 21.83% while out Buy List gained 21.79%.

In other words, we lost to the market by 0.04%! That comes to down to one penny over the whole year for every $25 invested.

I’m very competitive so I hate losing to the market, even if it’s by a teeny amount. I will add a few words in my defense. This was a difficult market to beat because a small amount of very large companies did very well. That tended to distort the market’s overall return. About 55% of the stocks in the S&P 500 failed to beat the S&P 500.

Still, over the long haul, our Buy List has done very well. Over the last 12 years, the total compounded gain for the Buy List is 228.09%, compared with 176.11% for the S&P 500.

Our biggest winner this year was Moody’s (MCO), which gained more than 56%. HEICO (HEI) came in second. HEI was our #1 performer in 2016. Twenty-one of our 25 stocks finished in the black in 2017. Our biggest loser was Signature Bank (SBNY), which lost 8.6%.

For people who care about such things, the “beta” of our Buy List in 2017 was 1.0092. The correlation of the daily changes of the Buy List to the changes of the S&P 500 was 83.6%.

The chart below details the Buy List’s performance. I’ve listed each stock along with the number of shares and the starting and ending prices. For tracking purposes, I assume the Buy List is a $1 million portfolio that starts equally divided among the 25 stocks.

Stock Shares 12/30/16 Beginning 12/29/17 Ending Profit/Loss
AFL 574.7126 $69.60 $40,000 $87.78 $50,448.27 26.12%
ADS 175.0547 $228.50 $40,000 $253.48 $44,372.87 10.93%
AXTA 1470.5882 $27.20 $40,000 $32.36 $47,588.23 18.97%
CERN 844.4163 $47.37 $40,000 $67.39 $56,905.21 42.26%
CNK 1042.7529 $38.36 $40,000 $34.82 $36,308.66 -9.23%
CBPX 1731.6017 $23.10 $40,000 $28.15 $48,744.59 21.86%
CTSH 713.9033 $56.03 $40,000 $71.02 $50,701.41 26.75%
BCR 178.0468 $224.66 $40,000 $331.24 $58,976.22 47.44%
DHR 513.8746 $77.84 $40,000 $92.82 $47,697.84 19.24%
ESRX 581.4799 $68.79 $40,000 $74.64 $43,401.66 8.50%
FISV 376.3643 $106.28 $40,000 $131.13 $49,352.65 23.38%
HEI 648.0881 $61.72 $40,000 $94.35 $61,147.11 52.87%
HRL 1149.0951 $34.81 $40,000 $36.39 $41,815.57 4.54%
INGR 320.1024 $124.96 $40,000 $139.80 $44,750.32 11.88%
ICE 708.9685 $56.42 $40,000 $70.56 $50,024.82 25.06%
MSFT 643.7078 $62.14 $40,000 $85.54 $55,062.77 37.66%
MCO 424.3131 $94.27 $40,000 $147.61 $62,632.86 56.58%
ROST 609.7561 $65.60 $40,000 $80.25 $48,932.93 22.33%
RPM 743.0801 $53.83 $40,000 $52.42 $38,952.26 -2.62%
SHW 148.8427 $268.74 $40,000 $410.04 $61,031.46 52.58%
SBNY 266.3116 $150.20 $40,000 $137.26 $36,553.93 -8.62%
SJM 312.3536 $128.06 $40,000 $124.24 $38,806.81 -2.98%
SNA 233.5494 $171.27 $40,000 $174.30 $40,707.66 1.77%
SYK 333.8619 $119.81 $40,000 $154.84 $51,695.18 29.24%
WAB 481.8116 $83.02 $40,000 $81.43 $39,233.92 -1.92%
Total $1,000,000 $1,205,845.20

Note that HEICO (HEI) split 5-for-4 on April 19.

Here’s how the Buy List performed throughout the year:

Here’s the data behind the dividend-adjusted returns. I’ve listed each stock’s beginning price, ending price and dividend-adjusted starting price. My source for dividend-adjusted prices is StockCharts.

Symbol Start Finish Adju Start Gain Gain w/Divs
AFL $69.60 $87.78 $68.03 26.12% 29.03%
ADS $228.50 $253.48 $226.49 10.93% 11.92%
AXTA $27.20 $32.36 $27.20 18.97% 18.97%
CERN $47.37 $67.39 $47.37 42.26% 42.26%
CNK $38.36 $34.82 $37.20 -9.23% -6.40%
CTSH $56.03 $71.02 $55.67 26.75% 27.57%
CBPX $23.10 $28.15 $23.10 21.86% 21.86%
BCR $224.66 $331.24 $223.86 47.44% 47.97%
DHR $77.84 $92.82 $77.46 19.24% 19.83%
ESRX $68.79 $74.64 $68.79 8.50% 8.50%
FISV $106.28 $131.13 $106.28 23.38% 23.38%
HEI $61.72 $94.35 $61.65 52.87% 53.04%
HRL $34.81 $36.39 $34.10 4.54% 6.72%
INGR $124.96 $139.80 $123.30 11.88% 13.38%
ICE $56.42 $70.56 $55.73 25.06% 26.61%
SJM $128.06 $124.24 $124.85 -2.98% -0.49%
MSFT $62.14 $85.54 $60.78 37.66% 40.74%
MCO $94.27 $147.61 $93.11 56.58% 58.53%
ROST $65.60 $80.25 $64.96 22.33% 23.54%
RPM $53.83 $52.42 $52.60 -2.62% -0.34%
SHW $268.74 $410.04 $266.06 52.58% 54.12%
SBNY $150.20 $137.26 $150.20 -8.62% -8.62%
SNA $171.27 $174.30 $168.17 1.77% 3.65%
SYK $119.81 $154.84 $118.70 29.24% 30.45%
WAB $83.02 $81.43 $82.55 -1.92% -1.36%
Total 20.58% 21.79%

Posted by on December 31st, 2017 at 5:32 pm


The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.