Morning News: December 5, 2023
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on December 5th, 2023 at 7:05 am

China Evergrande’s Crash Was Accelerated by Questionable Accounting

Moody’s Cuts China Credit Outlook to Negative on Rising Debt

European Countries Differ Over Windfall Taxes on Banks

U.S. Export Controls Need to ‘Change Constantly’ Even If It’s Tough for Businesses, Secretary Raimondo Says

Did Markets Go Too Far, Too Fast Is Debate to Dominate December

Apollo CEO Says It’s Getting Harder to Beat Public Markets

US Examined Hindenburg Allegations Before Giving Loan to Adani

The Supreme Court Battle That Could Rewrite the Tax Code

The Pentagon Wants to Root Out Shoddy Drugs. The FDA Is In Its Way

Nurse Shortages Are Set to Get Even Worse With Mass US Visa Delays

Signs of a Weakening Job Market, in Five Charts

Spotify’s Layoff Memo and the Art of Delivering Bad News

Meta, IBM Create Industrywide AI Alliance to Share Technology

The Heat Rises at COP28

It Could Be a Vast Source of Clean Energy, Buried Deep Underground

A Pipeline Giant Is Helping to Push Texas’s Power Grid to the Brink

Can This Startup Revive Soviet-Era Hydrofoil Tech?

Tesla Risks Car Shipments to Sweden Blocked Across Nordic Region

TuSimple Winds Down U.S. Operations as It Looks for Buyer

Yellow Rivals Scoop Up Truck Terminals in Bankruptcy Auction

The Rise of Temu’s Chinese Parent Will Reshape E-Commerce

Podcast Companies Begin to Advertise Like Hollywood Studios

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Morning News: December 4, 2023
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on December 4th, 2023 at 7:04 am

How Suspects Laundered Billions in Singapore for Years

World’s Most Indebted Developer Evergrande Wins Breathing Room

China Rips US for Seeing It as ‘Enemy’ After Raimondo Remarks

Why More Chinese Are Risking Danger in Southern Border Crossings to U.S.

Here’s How to Invest in Gold as It Hits an All-Time High

Bitcoin Surges Past $42,000 as Crypto Rally Gathers Steam

Bull Market in View After S&P 500 Hits Fresh Year-High

Goods Deflation Is Back. It Could Speed Inflation’s Return to 2%

Why Biden Touts Jobs When Americans Care About Prices

The IRS Froze a Big Tax Credit. It Didn’t Stop All the Money From Flowing

Billionaire Tax Rests on a Disputed $14,729 Refund at the Supreme Court

Nobody Wants to Be a Bank Examiner Anymore

Alaska Air Agrees to Buy Hawaiian in $1.9 Billion Deal

Ego, Fear and Money: How the A.I. Fuse Was Lit

Why Doctors and Pharmacists Are in Revolt

Supreme Court to Hear Challenge to Controversial Purdue Pharma Deal

Ozempic and a Protein Shake: Food Makers Prep Weight-Loss-Drug Side Dishes

Elliott’s Push at Phillips 66 Looks Familiar

Spotify to Cut 1,500 Jobs After Spending Spree

Virgin Galactic Shares Plunge in Premarket After Branson Rules Out Further Investment

CEOs Try to Beat Their Rivals in Softness and Cuddle-ability

Global Advertising Growth Is Expected to Slow in 2024, Excluding Elections Spending

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Morning News: December 1, 2023
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on December 1st, 2023 at 7:03 am

Oil’s Wild Ride Is Driven by a Disruptive Band of Bot Traders

Climate Protesters Get in Fed’s Face as Policy Clash Grows Louder

European Banks Stuck in Trough Amid Profit Concern, Goldman Says

Fears of a New World War Prey on Hedge Fund Titans and Policymakers Alike

Wall Street Seeks to Rally Americans to Fight Against Bank Rules

Fed’s Interest Rate Hikes Are Probably Over, but Officials Are Reluctant to Say So

A Grad-School Number-Cruncher Shakes Up the World of Bond Quants

A $6 Billion Settlement Threatens to Upend US Bankruptcy Deals

Binance’s VIP Traders Got Sneak Peek of Record US Crypto Penalty

Microsoft Is Happy Being the Co-Pilot on the OpenAI Rocket Ship

Yaccarino’s Memo to X Staff Calls Musk ‘Candid and Profound’

Advertisers Say They Do Not Plan to Return to X After Musk’s Comments

Alibaba Gets Rare Wall Street Downgrade as Rival Gains Traction

Judge Halts TikTok Ban in Montana

Nelson Peltz Launches Fresh Proxy Fight Against Disney

With Offices Sitting Empty, Landlords Are ‘Handing Back the Keys’

Airbnb Is Conquering Italy. One City Is Fighting Back

Is the Holiday Shopping Season Going to Be a Success? The Answer Is Murky

Americans Are Finally Turning Frugal After Splurging Over Summer

Neiman Marcus Rejects $3 Billion Takeover Bid by Saks

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Morning News: November 30, 2023
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on November 30th, 2023 at 7:07 am

UN Declares 2023 Hottest Year Ever as Crucial COP28 Summit Starts

Why No One Wants to Pay for the Green Transition

Global and Business Leaders Face Questions at New York Times Forum

China Investment Bank Bans Displays of Wealth

Turkey Seeks Gulf Cash for $20 Billion Bet on Transit Trade

Eurozone Inflation Falls Faster Than Expected

Robinhood Opens in Britain with Low-Cost US Trading to Woo Clients

Biggest Blowout in Bonds Since the 1980s Sparks Everything Rally

Goldilocks Meets Santa as Global Stocks Power to Best Month in Three Years

CFOs See Ongoing Pain From Foreign Exchange Oscillations

Banking Escapees Make Billions From Private Credit Boom

Consumers Likely Pulled Back Spending in October

Inside the Battle for OpenAI’s Soul

Big Companies Find a Way to Identify A.I. Data They Can Trust

AbbVie to Buy ImmunoGen for More Than $10 Billion

Cigna-Humana Merger Is Likely to Face Antitrust Challenge

Tata Tech Adds Billions to Market Capitalization in Indian Trading Debut

U.A.W. Announces Drive to Organize Nonunion Plants

Ford Lost $1.7 Billion in Profits from UAW Strike

Pickup or Lunar Lander? Tesla’s Cybertruck Enters a Crowded Market

Red Lobster’s Popular Endless Shrimp Deal Ate Into Its Profits

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Morning News: November 29, 2023
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on November 29th, 2023 at 8:06 am

Welcome to COP28, the U.N. Climate Conference Hosted by an Oil Giant

Saudi Arabia to Host World Expo 2030, in Victory for Crown Prince

House Prepares to Drop China Investment Curbs From Defense Bill

In a Shaky Oil Market, OPEC Has Bitter Decisions to Make

A $30 Billion Rout Shows Toll of Fed Hikes on Biden Energy Goals

The $7 Trillion ETF Boom Gets Blamed Again for Dumb Stock Moves

Bill Ackman Bets Fed Will Cut Interest Rates as Soon as First Quarter

Corporate America Has Dodged the Damage of High Rates. For Now

American Black Friday Sales Signal Tough Holidays for Retailers

The Chicken Tycoons vs. the Antitrust Hawks

KKR to Pay $2.7 Billion for the Rest of Insurer Global Atlantic

OpenAI Director Who Helped Oust Altman Now Key Player in Startup’s Future

U.S. Debates How Much to Sever Electric Car Industry’s Ties to China

G.M. to Cut Spending on Cruise Self-Driving Unit

GM Plans $10 Billion Stock Buyback in Bid to Assuage Investors

Toyota Plans to Reduce Stake in Top Auto-Parts Supplier Denso

Rakuten’s Mobile Misadventure: From Ambitious Plan to Millstone

Disney’s Failing ‘Wish’ Shows Iger Also Has a Princess Problem

After Year of ‘Fixing Things,’ Bob Iger Tells Disney Employees His Plans to Reshape the Company for the Future

Chemours, DuPont, Corteva to Pay $110 Million in Settlement Agreement with State of Ohio

A Master of One-Liners: Munger on Politics, Life and Crypto

Signa Files Insolvency as Cash Crunch Fells Luxury Empire

This 3-Year Cruise Around the World is Called Off, Leaving Passengers in the Lurch

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CWS Market Review – November 28, 2023
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on November 28th, 2023 at 6:22 pm

(This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

RIP: Charlie Munger

As I was preparing today’s newsletter, I got the news that Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett’s long-time partner, had died just a few weeks before his 100th birthday.

I don’t have enough time to offer a tribute, but I wanted to share with you some of my favorite Mungerisms:

“Someone will always be getting richer faster than you. This is not a tragedy.”

“It is remarkable how much long-term advantage people like us have gotten by trying to be consistently not stupid, instead of trying to be very intelligent.”

Rest in peace, Charlie.

A Great Month for Stocks

This has been a very good month for stocks. Unless something major happens later this week, November will go down as one of the best months for the S&P 500 in years.

I’m also pleased to see that our Buy List has outpaced the market on the way up. So far this month, the S&P 500 has gained 8.6% while the Buy List is up 10.6%.

The reason for the rally is quite simple. Investors have been convinced that the Fed is done, or just about done, with its rate hikes. One of the oddities we’re seeing is that there’s a pronounced gap between the Fed’s tough-sounding rhetoric and the market’s expectations. Even today, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said that more rate hikes are needed. I’m not so sure she’ll get her way.

The market loves lower interest rates and that appears to be what it will get. The Fed meets again in two weeks and it’s highly unlikely that the FOMC will hike rates. Futures traders see about a one-in-three chance of a rate cut by March.

I’ll give you an example of how much the market loves low interest rates. I ran a test. I took all the data for the S&P 500 and the three-month Treasury yield over the last 18 months.

I then separated the data into three buckets: days when the three-month Treasury yield fell, days when it increased and days when it stayed flat. Then I looked at how the S&P 500 performed on those days.

On days when the three-month yield increased, the S&P 500 fell at an annualized rate of 7.63%. When the yield was unchanged, so were stocks. The S&P 500 rose at an annualized rate of 0.06%. But when the three-month yield fell, the S&P 500 rose at an annualized rate of 41.4%. Falling rates are the fuel of a stock rally.

The good news is that inflation has abated in recent months, but the Fed wants to be clear that it won’t stop hiking until inflation gets back to its target of 2%. This could be a mistake.

I think it’s more important that the trend of inflation heads lower rather than hitting some arbitrary target. Bear in mind that the price for gasoline has fallen for 60 days in a row. At some point, the Fed will have to give in and admit victory.

Lately, we’ve also seen a rally in long-term bonds. I’m somewhat hesitant to highlight a drop in long-term yields because it comes after a dramatic rise in yields. The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose from 3.3% in April to 5% in September. It’s back down to about 4.3%.

There are emerging signs that the economy is on shaky ground. The consumer was spending money feverishly this summer, but that’s faded away.

Worst Year for Home Sales in 30 Years

The housing market, in particular, is quite weak. Existing-home sales in the U.S. are on pace for their worst year in three decades. This is the impact of higher mortgage rates. On Monday, the government said that new-home sales fell 5.6% in October.

That was below expectations. Wall Street had been expecting an annualized rate of 723,000 new homes sold. Instead, it was just 679,000.

What’s happening is that so many people locked into mortgages at very low rates. That means that now they’re reluctant to take on new higher-yielding mortgages.

The Fed has thrown a deadly right hook at inflation, and it hit the housing market square in the face. Mortgage rates peaked in October and have started to come down along with Treasury yields.

Tomorrow, the government will revise its report on Q3 GDP growth. The initial report said that the U.S. economy grew in real annualized terms of 4.9% during the third quarter. That was the best quarter for economic growth since Q4 of 2021. Consumer spending greatly helped the economy during Q3.

Wall Street is starting to turn its attention to Q4. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model says that the economy will grow at a 2.1% rate in Q4.

Broadridge Financial Hits New High

As I mentioned before, our Buy List has been acting well lately. I wanted to share with you one of our better-performing stocks which has been Broadridge Financial Solutions (BR).

This is actually a follow-up because I mentioned Broadridge in August 2022 in our free newsletter. At the time, the company had just reported very good results and it had been highlighted in Barron’s. This is part of what the magazine had to say:

Broadridge has been a steady stock for rocky times. That is thanks to a model heavy on recurring-revenue businesses and exposure to long-term trends that should remain in place no matter the near-term path of the economy or interest rates. Broadridge stock’s recent rally could cap gains in the near term, but the company’s long-term positive trajectory remains intact.

The company has a near monopoly in the business of managing and distributing investor communications for practically every public company in the U.S., plus mutual funds, exchange-traded funds, and more. That includes proxies, regulatory disclosures, and other reports and filings required of all U.S. securities issuers. Those are non-discretionary communications that companies and funds need to distribute no matter what the world is doing. That segment tends to grow at the pace of overall stockholdings in the U.S., with Broadridge able to eke out higher profit margins thanks to a continuing shift from printed documents delivered by mail to digital investor communications.

Broadridge also has a smaller but faster-growing segment focused on back-office functions for asset managers, investment banks and broker-dealers. Those include trade processing and settlement, record-keeping, and a variety of other compliance or regulatory functions. That is a software-as-a-service business that has expanded through a combination of organic growth and Broadridge buying companies with adjacent or complementary software and services.

The only thing better than a monopoly is a near-monopoly. It gets less attention from the authorities. The important point that Barron’s covers is Broadridge’s recurring revenue. That’s a great quality for a business to have.

I like looking at BR’s stock chart because you can tell when its earnings report comes out:

Earlier this month, Broadridge reported another strong quarter. For its fiscal Q1, BR earned $1.09 per share. That’s up 30% from a year ago, and it was 12 cents higher than expectations. Total revenues increased 12% to $1.431 billion, and recurring-revenue growth was up by 8%. Last quarter, BR bought back $150 million of its shares.

I’m glad to see that Broadridge is standing by its previous guidance. That calls for recurring-revenue growth of 6% to 9%, and EPS growth of 8% to 12%. The latter works out to a range of $7.57 to $7.85 per share. BR should have little trouble reaching that.

In August, Broadridge raised its annual dividend by 10% to $3.20 per share. The company has now raised its dividend in all 12 years since it went public, and 11 of those increases were by double digits.

The stock hit another 52-week high on Tuesday. We now have a 40.6% gain in Broadridge this year. Broadridge is a good example of a business that’s not well-known but has a strong, durable moat.

That’s all for now. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

– Eddy

P.S. If you want more info on our ETF, you can check out the ETF’s website.

Morning News: November 28, 2023
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on November 28th, 2023 at 7:05 am

China’s Property Lifeline Exposes Banks to Big Losses, Job Cuts

The Hong Kong Judge Who Puts Fear Into China’s Deadbeat Builders

Gold Bars and Tokyo Apartments: How Money Is Flowing Out of China

European Fund Giant Amundi Dips Toe Back into Turkey’s Lira

Biggest Climate Talks Ever Confront Global Chaos and Record Heat

BlackRock Sees Bank Reforms Freeing $4 Trillion in Climate Funding

Vietnam Relied on Environmentalists to Secure Billions. Then It Jailed Them

A Psychedelics Boom Is Minting Environmentalists

UBS Chair Kelleher Warns Bubble Is Forming in Private Credit

Ex-Hedge Fund Boss Fights SEC at Supreme Court With Big Backers

Goldman CEO Says Proposed Bank Rules Could Impact Airfares, Pensions

In the Age of Public Salary-Range Listings, Some Jobseekers Feel Duped

Inside U.S. Efforts to Untangle an A.I. Giant’s Ties to China

Chinese Sales Swamp Competition in Soaring Mexican Car Market

Musk’s Cybertruck Is Already a Production Nightmare for Tesla

Tesla Sues Swedish Transport Agency in Dispute Over License Plates

New Bidder Aims to Save Bankrupt Trucking Firm, if Treasury Goes Along

Fashion Retailer Shein Files Confidentially for US IPO

Shein Still Needs to Prove It’s a Bargain

Advertising Is Dead. Long Live Advertising

U.S. Whiskey Is ‘Collateral Damage’ in Trans-Atlantic Trade Fight

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Morning News: November 27, 2023
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on November 27th, 2023 at 7:02 am

Behind Tesla’s Challenges in Making the Cybertruck: Ultrahard Stainless Steel

Global Automakers Turn to China for EV Lessons

China’s Remote Deserts Are Hiding an Energy Revolution

Origin Energy Bidder Doesn’t Know How Much Largest Shareholder Wants

President Biden Plans to Skip COP28 Climate Summit in Dubai

Now for Some Good News About Climate

Javier Milei Needn’t ‘Dollarize’: Market Forces Have Done It for Him

Russian Central Bank to Resume Domestic FX Market Interventions from January

China Scrambles to Contain a Looming Shadow-Bank Meltdown

Goldman’s Jan Hatzius Believes the Hard Part Is Over

Billions Wiped Out as Stock-Safety Trade on Wall Street Misfires

Americans Ditched Big Cities During the Pandemic. Now Many Are Regretting It

Just How Bad Is the US Cost-of-Living Squeeze? We Did the Math

Retailers Have Cleaned Up Their Inventories for the Holidays

There’s a Lot Riding on Black Friday and Cyber Monday

The Biggest Delivery Business in the U.S. Is No Longer UPS or FedEx

Blackstone’s Schwarzman Sees Opportunities in Europe Real Estate

Choice Hotels Prepares to Challenge Wyndham’s Board

Hot Healthcare Hiring Bolsters Cooling U.S. Labor Market

Amazon Once Inspired Fear in the Health-Care Industry. No Longer

How To Make a Weight-Loss Drug Go Viral

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Morning News: November 24, 2023
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on November 24th, 2023 at 7:04 am

A More Moderate Milei Embraces Trading Partners He Had Shunned

Dirty Venezuelan Fuel Imports Threaten Colombian Leader’s Green Credentials

Germany Announces Special Budget to Avert Crisis

Turkey Nears First Bond Sale to Abu Dhabi Fund in Landmark Deal

Mideast Wealth Funds Draw Greater US Scrutiny Over China Ties

Ukraine’s Struggle for Arms and Attention Gives Putin an Opening

Canada’s Real-Estate Market Stumbles as Rate Hikes Bite

Nissan Invests $1.4 Billion to Build Two New EV Models in Britain

Tennessee Zinc Smelter Is at the Center of U.S.-China Trade Fight

Why Americans Can’t Buy Cheap Chinese Electric Vehicles

Auto Dealers Find Savings by Buying Cars Off the Street

Asset Managers Quietly Add ‘ESG’ to Portfolios of Defense Stocks

Muddy Waters’s Latest Target Follows String of Notable Wins

College Dropouts Who Weathered Crypto’s Crash See Promise Ahead

Nvidia Shares Fall as It Reportedly Delays China AI Chip Designed to Comply with U.S. Export Rules

The Pension: That Rare Retirement Benefit Gets a Fresh Look

YOLO Consumers to Decide Winners and Losers This Holiday Season

Black Friday Isn’t What It Used to Be

These Retail Workers Make Your Holiday Shopping Spree Possible

Next Year’s Holiday Gift May Be AI in Your Pocket

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Morning News: November 23, 2023
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on November 23rd, 2023 at 7:08 am

Russia’s Sanctioned Sovcombank Requests US Licence to Make UN Climate Payments

Why Carbon Capture Is Big Oil’s Solution for Climate Change

In Biden’s Climate Law, a Boon for Green Energy, and Wall Street

Turkey Central Bank Hikes Rate by Double the Forecast to 40%

Germany Financial Sector Facing Dark Clouds, Bundesbank Warns

German Budget Mess Could Inflict Big Growth Hit in 2024, BE Says

Dutch Giant ASML Warns Against Labor Curbs After Far-Right Win

Mexico’s Inflation Ticks Up as Banxico Holds Key Rate Steady

Chinese Financial Conglomerate Zhongzhi Has a $31 Billion Problem

China Races to End Property Panic, Fill $446 Billion Gap

Washington Quietly Scrapped a Plan to Save Homeowners Thousands of Dollars

Virgin Money’s Profit Misses Forecasts as Cost Pressures Bite

A $200,000 Pet-Rock NFT Shows How Crypto Is Relapsing Into FOMO

Altman Is Back at OpenAI, But Questions Remain as to Why He Was Fired in First Place

OpenAI Engineers Earning $800,000 a Year Turn Rare Skillset Into Leverage

A.I. Belongs to the Capitalists Now

Judge Says Evidence Shows Tesla and Elon Musk Knew About Flawed Autopilot System

How the Memphis Sanitation Workers’ Strike Changed the Labor Movement

Toy Shoppers Come Down With a Case of the Holiday Blahs

Colt Makes $1.74 Billion Offer for Vista Outdoor, Gate-crashing Rival Deal

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