CWS Market Review – November 11, 2025

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We finally had some good news out of Washington. It appears that the government shutdown will soon come to an end. As I write this, Polymarket shows 95% odds that the shutdown will end between November 12th and 15th. The Senate has already passed a bill that will end the shutdown.

Now it’s the House’s turn. They’ll start voting on the Senate’s bill tomorrow afternoon. If that passes, all it needs is the president’s signature and the government can reopen.

The stock market celebrated the news yesterday with a big rally, and it was largely concentrated in tech and High Beta stocks.

On Monday, the S&P 500 rallied over 1.5% while the Nasdaq was up more than 2.2%. The High Beta Index was up 1.69% and the Low Vol Index was up 0.08%. The tech sector gained almost 2.7% on the day. This is close to the inverse of what we’ve seen over the past two weeks.

So what happened to break the political deadlock? Eight senators who are normally on the Democratic side of the aisle broke ranks and voted for a plan to fund most of the government through January.

The shutdown was starting to add a level of chaos to certain parts of the economy. For example, about 5,000 flights were canceled from Friday through Sunday. According to the New York Times, “By Monday morning, more than 1,400 flights had been canceled for the day, more than 5.5 percent of scheduled trips.” There have been 602 reports of short staffing since October 1, more than six times as many as were reported on the same dates last year.

I’m glad that will soon be behind us. I’m also looking forward to seeing some of the recent economic data that’s been left unattended.

The stock market had an interesting day today because many stocks did well. The Dow rallied over 550 points to a new record. The weak spot is that the Nasdaq didn’t do so well today. It closed lower by 0.25%.

Within the Nasdaq are many tech stocks and they’re influential enough to bring down the entire Nasdaq Composite. We can go further and see that a small group of very large companies can sink the entire tech market. In fact, Nvidia (NVDA) is big enough to do it by itself.

In today’s trading, Nvidia closed lower by 2.96%. That’s a loss of around $145 billion which works out to around 18 points in the entire S&P 500. The tech sector was the only market sector to close lower today.

Thanks to Nvidia’s loss, many Low Vol stocks gained back some relative strength they lost on Monday. High Beta’s relative performance peaked on October 24th. Low Vol has outperformed since October 29th. I can’t say if this is the start of a long-term rotation for these sectors, but High Beta has held the spotlight for a long, long time. All cycles on Wall Street come to an end.

Interestingly, on Tuesday, the High Beta sector closed lower by 0.92% while Low Vol closed higher by 0.92%. Nice symmetry.

Even though the stock market is near all-time highs, I do have some growing concerns about the state of the economy, especially the jobs market. For example, it appears that many of the job numbers are distorted by “ghost jobs.” These are jobs that are listed as being open but are never actually filled. It makes the labor market appear stronger than it truly is.

Last week’s ISM Manufacturing report showed further contraction in the factory sector of the economy. This was the eighth monthly drop in a row.

Wendy’s said it’s going to close 300 stores starting at the end of this year. The burger chain recently reported a 4.7% drop in same-store sales.

U.S. companies recently announced the largest October jobs cuts in 20 years. Intel said it will reduce its workforce by 15% by the end of the year. Amazon plans to cut 14,000 corporate jobs. Walgreens cut its pay for hourly store workers after a $10 billion buyout.

President Trump has floated the idea of giving all Americans, except high income folks, a check for $2,000.

The October jobs report was scheduled to be released last Friday, but that’s been put on ice thanks to the government shutdown. Without the government data, we’re forced to rely on other sources. For example, the ADP private payrolls reports said that companies added 42,000 workers last month. Revelio Labs said the economy shed 9,100 jobs in October.

This morning, ADP said that U.S. companies lost an average of 11,250 jobs over the last four weeks through October 25.

The National Association of Realtors decided to replace a photo it was going to use in a new report because it showed a young couple. These days, those folks aren’t typical home buyers. Instead, the NAR used a photo of a couple near retirement age. The average home buyer is now 59 years old.

Buffett Says Goodbye

On Wednesday, Warren Buffett sent a letter to shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway. In it, Buffett said that he will no longer be writing Berkshire’s annual report or speaking at the annual shareholder meeting. I can hardly blame him for having some time off. After all, he’s 95 years old. At the end of the year, Greg Abel will take over.

In his letter, Buffett gives us a lovely paean to Omaha and growing up in the heartland. Here’s a sample:

Let’s look at a few other kids from that era, who grew up very nearby and greatly influenced my life but of whom I was for long unaware.

I’ll begin with Charlie Munger, my best pal for 64 years. In the 1930s, Charlie lived a block away from the house I have owned and occupied since 1958. Early on, I missed befriending Charlie by a whisker. Charlie, 6 ⅔ years older than I, worked in the summer of 1940 at my grandfather’s grocery store, earning $2 for a 10-hour day. (Thrift runs deep in Buffett blood.)

The following year I did similar work at the store, but I never met Charlie until 1959 when he was 35 and I was 28. After serving in World War II, Charlie graduated from Harvard Law and then moved permanently to California. Charlie, however, forever talked of his early years in Omaha as formative. For more than 60 years, Charlie had a huge impact on me and could not have been a better teacher and protective “big brother.”

We had differences but never had an argument. “I told you so” was not in his vocabulary. In 1958, I bought my first and only home. Of course, it was in Omaha, located about two miles from where I grew up (loosely defined), less than two blocks from my in-laws, about six blocks from the Buffett grocery store and a 6-7-minute drive from the office building where I have worked for 64 years.

Buffett also discussed his philanthropic plans for his estate. Buffett’s children will be looking after most of the funds in their respective trusts.

Lastly, he added this note: “Berkshire will always be managed in a manner that will make its existence an asset to the United States and eschew activities that would lead it to become a supplicant.”

This reminds me of Charles Wilson, who was often called “Engine Charlie.” Wilson was the CEO of General Motors, and he later become Ike’s Secretary of Defense.

At his confirmation hearings, Wilson famously said, “What’s good for General Motors is good for the country.” Except that’s not what he said. This has become a famous misquotation.

Wilson was asked if he could make a decision that was not in the interest of General Motors. Wilson said he could, but it would be unusual “because for years I thought what was good for our country was good for General Motors, and vice versa.” That’s quite a different answer and I’m glad to see Buffett endorse that tradition.

Here are the last 30 years for Berkshire (BRK-A)

That’s all for now. The government’s econ reports may be out soon. Until then, several Fed officials will be speaking this week. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

– Eddy

Posted by on November 11th, 2025 at 6:38 pm


The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.