CWS Market Review – March 31, 2026

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The first quarter came to an end today, and it was a difficult one for Wall Street. We started off the quarter, and the new year, just fine. By January 27, the S&P 500 reached an all-time closing high. Then on February 6, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 50,000 for the first time ever.

Then in the middle of the quarter, things started to change as the market had to deal with the ramifications of military operations in the Middle East. The Strait of Hormuz was shut down and the price of oil shot to more than $100 per barrel. It’s still up there as I write this.

Now the damage is being felt on Wall Street and on Main Street. The price for a gallon of gas is now above $4. In recent days, the Dow closed more than 10% off its high which is the traditional definition of a market correction.

Here’s how the three major indices performed during Q1:

S&P 500: -4.63%

Dow Jones Industrial Average: -3.58%

Nasdaq Composite: -7.11%

The S&P 500 closed Monday at 6,343.72 which marked its lowest close since August 7, 2025. The index is currently below its 50- and 200-day moving averages. It’s not in correction territory yet, but it’s getting close.

March turned out to be the worst month for stocks in more than a year, and Q1 was the worst quarter for the S&P 500 in nearly four years. If we measure from the market’s high in February 2025, then the stock market has barely advanced — and adjusted for inflation, the market is basically flat for 13 months.

The Mag 7 stocks, in particular, have not fared well. All seven lost ground during Q1:

Google is missing from the chart because I’m only allowed six lines at once. For the quarter, Google lost 8.06%.

The stock market had a big relief rally on Tuesday (+2.91%). I tend to be skeptical of outsized “contra-trend” rallies. This is when the stock market does exactly the opposite of what it had been doing, and it does it by a lot. Don’t get me wrong. I’ll welcome any rally, but days like today seem more like temper tantrums rather than optimistic rallies.

The stock market rallied after the president of Iran said that his government might be open to ending the war. The Dow rallied over 1,100 points today and the Nasdaq was up 3.83%.

Earlier today, the Labor Department’s JOLTS report said that hiring in February fell to its lowest level in six years. This week, we’re going to learn a lot more about how well the economy is performing. Tomorrow, ADP will release its monthly report on private payrolls. Wall Street expects to see a gain of 39,000 jobs.

We’ll also get the retail sales report for February. If you recall, the report for January was not terribly good. For tomorrow, Wall Street expects to see a gain of 0.5%, and a gain of 0.3% excluding autos. At 10 a.m. ET tomorrow, we’ll get the ISM Manufacturing Index.

That leads us to Friday and the big March jobs report. This report will be a little unusual in that the stock market will be closed on Friday for Good Friday. This means that we’ll have to wait until Monday to see the market’s reaction.

For Friday’s report, Wall Street expects to see a gain of 59,000 jobs. For February, the economy lost 92,000 jobs. Analysts also see the jobless rate staying at 4.4%. Hourly average earnings are expected to rise by 0.3%. That’s not bad, but I hope to see better numbers.

This leaves the Federal Reserve in a difficult position. The jobs market is weak, and commodity prices are rising. The economy would certainly benefit from lower prices, but the inflation may be too precarious to ignore.

The Fed meets again in four weeks, and it will be Jerome Powell’s final meeting as Fed Chair. Now it looks like the Fed may not touch interest rates before the end of this year. In fact, they may not make any changes to rates for another 16 months. That’s according to the latest futures prices.

Stryker Hits New 52-Week Low

I wanted to highlight Stryker (SYK) this week. The stock has been on our Buy List for the last 19 years in a row. It’s a wonderful company, and I’m glad we’ve owned it.

Lately, however, the shares haven’t performed very well. The company was also the victim of a nasty cyber-attack. Fortunately, most of its systems are back up and running. Today, shares of Stryker got down to a new 52-week low. The stock is back to where it was nearly two years ago.

Here’s a look at 40 years of SYK:

It’s hard to find a point when it wasn’t a good time to buy Stryker. This is also a good example of Elfenbein’s Law: “When a stock has done so well that the legend for the vertical axis is unreadable, that’s probably a good sign.”

In January, Stryker reported very good numbers for Q4. Earnings rose 11.5% to $4.47 per share. That was eight cents better than expectations. Stryker’s own guidance had been for $4.34 to $4.44 per share.

Net sales were up 11.4% to $7.2 billion, and organic sales were up 11.0%. Stryker’s operating margin increased 100 basis points to 30.2%. For the year, Stryker made $13.63 per share. That’s up 11.8% over last year.

Here’s a look at Stryker’s annual earnings:

For 2026, Stryker expects earnings between $14.90 and $15.10 per share, and organic-net-sales growth of 8.0% to 9.5%. If that’s correct, then it would be another good year for SYK.

That’s all for now. The stock market will be closed on Friday in honor of Good Friday. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

– Eddy

Posted by on March 31st, 2026 at 7:05 pm


The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.