CWS Market Review – June 23, 2026

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In recent days, it seems as if geo-political news has completely fused with financial market news. When there’s optimism for less fighting in the Middle East, the market rallies, and (importantly), oil falls. Yet when the tensions rise, the markets fall and oil rises.

Each morning, I look at the news to see which kind of day it will be. Somehow, the fate of the Strait of Hormuz has become a key trading metric.

Lately, the bears have gotten the upper hand. The market has fallen in four of the last five days, although outside some tech areas, the damage hasn’t been that bad. The S&P 500 isn’t far from a new all-time high. The index is also (for now) above its 50- and 200-day moving averages.

Tech stocks did especially poorly on Tuesday. The Nasdaq lost 2.21% today which was 0.77% worse than the S&P 500. The whole AI sector seems like it’s getting tired. More than 380 stocks in the S&P 500 beat the market today. That tells you how poorly the big boys fared.

The market had a similar run at the start of June where tech lagged, but that trend was quickly turned around. In Tuesday’s trading, many defensive stocks gained ground. Healthcare and Consumer Staples were the two best-performing sectors today. Those sectors have not done very well in recent months.

Micron (MU) is due to report after tomorrow’s closing bell. The earnings report will be a big deal. Micron has become one of the few stocks that nearly everyone watches. The company has experienced explosive demand for its high-bandwidth memory. The stock has become a favorite of traders. Over the last month, MU has had an average daily swing of more than 6%. The stock has had five days of more than 10%. Today, it was down over 13%.

The consensus on Wall Street is that Micron will report earnings of $20.05 per share. MU will almost certainly top that forecast, but will they do it by enough? That’s a difficult question. Three months ago, Micron beat earnings by more than 30%. Its revenues tripled last year’s Q2. The problem for Micron is that expectations are so high that it will almost be impossible to impress traders.

The Mag 7 have also lagged the market. Here’s a chart of the MAGS ETF, which is a decent proxy for the Mag 7, divided by the S&P 500 ETF. The Mag 7 have underperformed the market starting at any point over the last year.

On Monday, SpaceX (SPCX) lost one-sixth of its total value. Earlier today, SpaceX fell below $148 per share. That’s below the opening trade of $150 per share and not far from its IPO price of $135 per share.

SpaceX actually closed higher today. Given SpaceX’s volatility, I wouldn’t be surprised to see it fall below its IPO price sometime soon. The all-time high came one week ago when it got to $225 per share. From high to low, the stock lost nearly $700 billion in market value. Elon Musk lost $350 billion. He’s down to only $1.1 trillion

SpaceX is turning to the bond market to raise money. The company is looking to raise at least $20 billion. According to the WSJ, the bankers say a 10-year bond would cost SpaceX 165 basis points over a similarly dated Treasury.

Tomorrow we’ll get the report on new home sales. On Thursday, we’ll get the latest revision to Q1 GDP growth. The last report said that the U.S. economy grew in real annualized terms of 1.6% for the first three months of the year.

The first quarter is already some distance behind us. In late July, we’ll get our first look at Q2 GDP growth. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model currently expects Q2 GDP growth of 3%. That’s quite good.

Along with the GDP numbers, we’ll also get the latest PCE price data. This is important because it’s the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation. I’m especially curious to see if any of the energy inflation has found its way into core inflation. Nearly everything you buy uses energy. At some point, that inflation will make itself known.

The two-year yield has broken out above 4.2% to its highest point in 16 months. This tells me that the market expects a rate hike from the Fed before the end of this year. However, the market isn’t expecting much else, for now—maybe one or two 0.25% hikes and that’s it.

The next big report will be the June jobs report which will be out on Thursday, July 2. The market will be closed on July 3.

Stock Focus: Mercury General (MCY)

I always get positive feedback whenever I highlight a stock that gets little institutional coverage from Wall Street. There are tons of wonderful companies out there that no one knows about. Some are too small, but many others are simply dull.

Last week, I told you about Gorman-Rupp (GRC), a little stock that has increased its dividend every year for the last 53 years in a row. Despite that, almost no analysts follow it.

This week, I want to tell you about Mercury General (MCY). Never heard of it? Don’t worry, you’re not alone.

Mercury General is an insurance company founded in 1961 by George Joseph. Until Covid, the company had a long history of steady dividend hikes. It currently had about 4,400 employees.

The stock IPO’d in 1985. In 1990, you could have picked up one share of MCY for less than $1. Today, the stock is going for $106 per share. Since October 2023, it’s up over 300%. Despite that impressive track record, only one analyst currently follows MCY. The company has a market value of $5.9 billion. It reached another new all-time high today.

George Joseph has led a truly remarkable life. He’s a perfect example of the great American success story. He’s the son of Lebanese immigrants. Joseph grew up in West Virginia where his father worked as a coalminer.

During World War II, Joseph served as a navigator on a B-17, and he flew 50 missions. After the war, he went to Harvard on the GI Bill. He finished in three years. After that, he founded Mercury General and today he’s a billionaire. I’m happy to say that George Joseph is still with us at the age of 104. Forbes says he has a net worth of $3.5 billion.

Mercury’s next earnings report is due out in early August. The stock is currently going for less than 10 times earnings. How is no one covering this?

That’s all for now. On Thursday, the government will release the latest revision for Q1 GDP growth. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

– Eddy

Posted by on June 23rd, 2026 at 7:47 pm


The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.