Heading Towards Deflations

The TIPs say deflation is coming and may stay around for a bit:

Yet, if you believe the yields on US Treasury inflation protected bonds, or Tips, we shall have a 2.2 per cent fall in prices in 2009, a 2.5 per cent decline in 2010 and only flat prices in 2011. If that turns out to be true, the real interest rate burden on even the highest-rated borrowers will be extremely hard to bear.
As a practical matter, long before we had significant “negative prints” of consumer prices, the Federal Reserve would just flat out buy Treasury bonds and monetise away with “quantitative easing”. Gold dealers would replace hedge fund managers at the art auctions, model agency parties and Congressional hearings.

But there’s more to the story. John Dizard says that the market is simply becoming less efficient:

What’s really going on is another effect of the disappearance of dealer and arbitrageur capital. The dealers can’t afford to make efficient markets, given their decapitalisation, downsizing, and outright disappearance. That means anomalies sit there for weeks and months, where they would have disappeared in minutes or seconds.

Here’s another look at yield you can get for the TIP maturing in two months.

It’s currently yielding 13.73%.

Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on November 19th, 2008 at 2:38 pm

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