Archive for 2009

• Used Car Prices Up in June
  Eddy Elfenbein, July 15th, 2009 at 1:51 pm

  Today’s CPI report showed that “used cars and trucks” rose nearly 1.4% last month. That’s not seasonally adjusted. This might be evidence that used cars are doing well which may say something about Nicholas Financial (NICK). It’s a small bit of news, but worth passing on.
  By the way, NICK just posted their latest annual report. The stock is still going for less than two-thirds of its book value.

• Carney Defends Capitalism
  Eddy Elfenbein, July 15th, 2009 at 1:32 pm

  John is spot on. CIT really made a mistake in not failing earlier and more massively. Oh well.
  

• Lap Dances Apparently Not Hurt By Recession
  Eddy Elfenbein, July 15th, 2009 at 12:06 pm

  Guess what strip club stock is 200% in the last four months?
  Rick’s Cabaret International (RICK)
  Special bonus! Hear Erin Burnett make a reference to Mark Haines’ ass. It’s not business, it’s CNBC.
  

• Today’s Rally Is Led by the Cyclicals
  Eddy Elfenbein, July 15th, 2009 at 11:57 am

  It’s all about the cyclicals:
  

• The Puzzling Equity Premium Puzzle
  Eddy Elfenbein, July 15th, 2009 at 10:28 am

  David Merkel has some interesting thoughts on the Equity Premium Puzzle.
  My so-far-ignored-by-the-Noble committee idea is that there is and should be an premium for equities, but it shouldn’t be very much. The idea is simple: If you lend a company money, both you and the company implicitly agree that they can do better with it than you. Therefore, their ROE ought to top the interest rate on the loan.
  A bond can’t buy a stock, but a stock can buy a bond. Moreover, a stock can use leverage to buy even more bonds. Therefore the size of the equity premium ought to be related to the size of the yield curve. What exactly the relationship is…well, I haven’t worked that part out yet.

• Stat of the Day
  Eddy Elfenbein, July 14th, 2009 at 3:41 pm

  General Motors, days in bankruptcy = 39
  Jesus, days in wilderness = 40
  (Source: Bloomberg, KJV)

• Daniel Gross: The Recession is Over (Sorta)
  Eddy Elfenbein, July 14th, 2009 at 3:13 pm

  At the new-and-improved Newsweek, Daniel Gross hops on the Dennis Kneale bandwagon and declares the recession over — though he has a far more intelligent and sardonic analysis:

  (T)wo of the best and most objective forecasters, who are not connected to investment banks or to the CNBC noise machine, have recently called the upturn. Macroeconomic Advisers, the St. Louis-based consulting firm that compiles a monthly GDP index, reported to its clients Monday that while second-quarter GDP was tracking at negative 0.1 percent (recession), the third quarter was tracking at 2.4 percent growth.
  The folks at the Economic Cycles Research Institute agree enthusiastically. It’s not because they’ve detected green pea shoots in Central Park. Rather, it’s because we’ve seen the three P’s, says Laskhman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI, which has been studying business cycles for decades and was one of the few outfits to call the last two recessions with any degree of accuracy.
  The economic data that get the most play in the news—unemployment, retail sales—are coincident or lagging indicators and historically have not revealed much about directional changes in the economy. ECRI’s proprietary methodology breaks down indicators into a long-leading index, a weekly leading index, and a short-leading index. “We watch for turning points in the leading indexes to anticipate turning points in the business cycle and the overall economy,” says Achuthan. It’s tough to recognize transitions objectively “because so often our hopes and fears can get in the way.” To prevent exuberance and despair from clouding vision, ECRI looks for the three P’s: a pronounced rise in the leading indicators; one that persists for at least three months; and one that’s pervasive, meaning a majority of indicators are moving in the same direction.
  The long-leading index—which goes back to the 1920s and doesn’t include stock prices but does include measures related to credit, housing, productivity, and profits—hits bottom and starts to climb about six months before a recession ends. The weekly leading index calls directional shifts about three to four months in advance. And the short-leading index, which includes stock prices and jobless claims, is typically the last to turn up.
  All three are now flashing green. According to Achuthan, the long-leading index growth rate has been recovering since November 2008, the weekly leading index has been recovering since last December, and the short-leading index growth rate bottomed in February 2009. In sequence, each turned up, “and by April the three Ps had all been satisfied.” Sure, corporate profits continue to disappoint, and the unemployment rate is climbing. But for ECRI, which navigates by relying exclusively on its instruments, that’s only a part of their picture. They’re the Spocks of the economic forecasting crowd—unemotional, uninvested in anything but the logic of what history and their dashboard tell them. “From our vantage point, every week and every month our call is getting stronger, not weaker, including over the last few weeks,” says Achuthan. “The recession is ending somewhere this summer.” In fact, it may already be over.

  Hmmm…I hope he’s right but hope isn’t a good research tool. The fact is that the economy still faces a number of headwinds, the most crucial is the deleveraging that’s going on. My fear is that we’re in for a prolonged period of sluggish growth.

• Goldmine $achs
  Eddy Elfenbein, July 14th, 2009 at 10:02 am

  
  When J.P. Morgan formed U.S. Steel in 1901, Henry Adams said that he was “apparently trying to swallow the sun.” Now it looks like Goldman Sachs has swallowed the galaxy.
  Goldman’s second-quarter earnings report was staggering. From April through June, Goldman earned $3.44 billion. That works out to $4.93 a share which is head and shoulders above Wall Street’s consensus of $3.53.

  Chief Executive Officer Lloyd Blankfein made Goldman Sachs the highest-paying Wall Street firm in history before last year’s credit freeze led him to convert to a bank, accept government funds and report the first quarterly loss as a public company. This year Goldman Sachs has issued new stock, repaid the U.S. Treasury and reaped fees from selling stocks and bonds.
  “Goldman’s got a sweet spot in here, they were the go-to players,” said Peter Sorrentino, a senior portfolio manager at Huntington Asset Advisors in Cincinnati, which oversees $13.8 billion including Goldman shares, before earnings were released. “For the time being, they’ve got kind of an open playing field all to themselves.”

  The stock is down slightly this morning, but that’s following its big day yesterday.
  

• BusinessWeek Could Be Sold for $1
  Eddy Elfenbein, July 14th, 2009 at 9:54 am

  From the FT:

  McGraw-Hill could reap just $1 from a sale of Business Week, according to people familiar with the 80-year-old financial magazine’s losses.
  The publisher has appointed Evercore, the boutique investment bank, to sell the business after concluding it was non-core, two people familiar with the decision said.
  McGraw-Hill, which owns the Standard & Poor’s rating agency and a large educational publisher, would only say it was “exploring strategic options” for Business Week. Evercore did not return calls.

  (Via: Ritholtz)

• Will Someone PLEASE Pay Attention to Me?
  Eddy Elfenbein, July 14th, 2009 at 12:52 am