April ISM = 54.8

The economic recovery is officially 34 months old. It’s not strong but it may last a little while longer. Today’s ISM number came in at 54.8 while Wall Street was expecting 53.0.

Here’s some context: The ISM has fallen between 54.0 and 56.0 a total of 104 times. Just three have come during official recessions.

The strong ISM caused a quick rally on Wall Street and we’re back above 1,400.

Here’s a look at how often a recession has occurred by ISM range:

Range Count Recessions
75 over 3 0
70 74.9 3 0
65 69.9 30 0
60 64.9 78 3
55 59.9 194 3
50 54.9 221 10
45 49.9 136 25
40 44.9 55 32
35 39.9 38 35
30 34.9 13 13
Under 30 1 1

Posted by on May 1st, 2012 at 10:11 am


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