Dow Closes At All-Time Inflation-Adjusted High

After 14 years, the Dow Jones finally took out its inflation-adjusted all-time high.

I can’t be 100% certain since we don’t have the December CPI numbers, but I will say that’s very likely.

On January 14, 2000, the Dow closed at 11,722.98. Today it closed at 16,221.14 for a gain of 38.4%. This, I should add, doesn’t include dividends.

Now for some math: The high from 2000 was 69.562 times the CPI. To match that today, and then smooth out the trend to the end of the month, the CPI would have to rise by 0.08% in December. Anything less than that, and we’re at a new high.

But that 0.08% is the non-seasonally adjusted number. Assuming I have my numbers right, the not-seasonally adjusted CPI would need to rise by no more than 0.4% this month. (Apparently, December is the month with greatest seasonal impact.)

We’ll get the CPI report in a few weeks, but I’m confident in calling this the new high.

Posted by on December 20th, 2013 at 4:37 pm


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