Archive for August, 2025

• Morning News: August 6, 2025
  Eddy Elfenbein, August 6th, 2025 at 7:06 am

  America’s Ultimatum to Russia Is About to Pass. Now What?

  Ukraine Appoints Head of Economy Watchdog After Anti-Graft Protests

  German Factory Orders Dip as Sluggish International Demand Weighs

  Germany Gets No Bidders in Zero-Subsidy Offshore Wind Auction

  Shale Oil Drillers Tap the Brakes on Production Until Prices Gain Speed

  In Hawaii, New Tourism Tax Aims to Offset Costs of Climate Change

  US Is Still Critically Reliant on China, ECB Finds

  China Is a Nation of Savers. Many Are Drowning in Debt.

  India’s Central Bank Stands Pat as Tariff Pressures Linger

  The Tariff Effect: Billions in Revenue but No Economic Earthquake

  Trump Ramps Up Tariff Blitz With India, Pharma, Chips in Sights

  Does Japan Want American Cars? Trump’s Push to Open Foreign Markets Faces Test

  Detroit Rediscovers Its Love for Giant Gas Guzzlers

  Why the B.L.S. Regularly Revises Jobs Data

  Trump Airs Personal Financial Grievances Ahead of ‘Debanking’ Crackdown

  Goldman Trader Says Buoyant Stocks Are Ignoring Recession Risks

  The New Economics of People in a World of Closing Doors

  When Top Lawyers Earn $30 Million, Who Pays?

  Revenge of the Girlbosses

  The Texas Gerrymandering Fight Could Ignite a National Fire

  OpenAI in Talks for Share Sale at $500 Billion Valuation

  How Palantir Won Over Washington—and Pushed Its Stock Up 600%

  Disney, McDonald’s and the State of the U.S. Economy

  Disney Tops Profit Estimates, Led by Parks Division, Streaming

  Disney Paying $1.6 Billion for WWE Rights

  The NFL Is Taking a 10% Stake in Disney’s ESPN

  McDonald’s Returns to Sales Growth With Toys, Budget Meals

  Uber Boosts Buybacks by $20 Billion After Upbeat Forecast

  How One Company Maintained a Monopoly on U.S. Fire Retardant

  Shopify Rallies on Revenue Beat, Strong Third-Quarter Outlook

  Aldi’s Passionate, Cultlike Following Fuels Its Rapid Expansion Plans

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• CWS Market Review – August 5, 2025
  Eddy Elfenbein, August 5th, 2025 at 10:01 pm

  (This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

  The Weak July Jobs Report

  The stock market got a big shock on Friday when the Labor Department said that only 73,000 new jobs were created last month. That was below expectations for a gain of 100,000 jobs, and as expectations go, that’s quite modest.

  But what really hit Wall Street were the revisions to the old data. The numbers for May and June were revised lower by a combined 258,000. That means that the economy created only 19,000 jobs in May and 14,000 in June.

  Here’s a look at the original jobs report compared with the revisions.

  

  The unemployment rate increased by 0.1% to 4.2% for July. I like to look at the decimals, and the unemployment rate came very close to rounding up to 4.3%. We now have the highest unemployment rate since October 2021.

  This was a very unusual jobs report. For example, health care and social assistance combined for 94% of the job growth.

  The jobs report is the cause for a major change in outlook because these new numbers indicate that the jobs market isn’t nearly as strong as we thought. It was only last Wednesday that the Federal Reserve said in its policy statement that the “unemployment rate remains low, and labor market conditions remain solid.”

  Maybe not.

  The futures market responded immediately, and it looks like a September rate hike is back on the table. The odds of a Fed rate cut in September soared to 89%. Before the jobs report, the odds were around 40%. There’s even talk now of the Fed cutting by 1% before the end of the year.

  The S&P 500 lost 1.60% on Friday. That was the biggest lost for the index since late May. During the month of July, Friday’s loss was more than double the next worst daily loss.

  The quiet upwards market that we’ve been enjoying this summer may no longer be with us:

  There were few signs of strength in the July jobs count, with gains coming primarily from health care, a sector that has continued to show strength in the post-Covid recovery. The group added 55,000 jobs, easily leading the way. Social assistance also contributed 18,000 jobs. The two sectors combined for some 94% of the job growth.

  Retail added nearly 16,000 jobs and the financial sector was up 15,000.

  However, federal government employment continued to decline, down 12,000 for the month and 84,000 since its January peak, before Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency began paring down the jobs rolls. Professional and business services lost 14,000.

  Is the economy slowing, or it coming to a crashing halt? We don’t have the data yet to say.

  There were some good bits in the jobs report. For example, average hourly earnings rose by 0.3% last month which matched estimates. Over the past year, average hourly earnings are up 3.9%. That’s not bad, but I want to see it go higher. Over the last year, average hourly earnings increased by 3.9%.

  The labor force participation rate edged down to 62.2% That’s the lowest since November 2022. The broader U-6 rate, which counts “discouraged workers,” rose to 7.9%.

  President Trump was not happy with the jobs report, especially the revisions. He fired Erika McEntarfer, the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

  The president has demanded lower interest rates from the Fed, and he may soon get his wish. On top of that, Adriana Kugler just announced her retirement from the Federal Reserve Board. That gives the president an opportunity to appoint a new member.

  Folks on Wall Street are now talking about the Fed lowering rates by 1% before the end of the year. If that’s correct, that would be a big boost for value and defensive stocks. I’ll give you an example. On Friday, as the market was falling, shares of American Water Works (AWK), one of our Buy List stocks, gained nearly 4%.

  IDEXX Labs (IDXX) Soars 27% on Earnings Beat

  In last week’s issue, I listed some stocks that I’m considering for next year’s Buy List. One of them, IDEXX Laboratories (IDXX), gave us a nice surprise on Monday. The company beat earnings, raised guidance and soared by more than 27% in Monday’s trading.

  I wish I could take credit for predicting this, but I was as surprised by the big move as the market was. I merely said I was looking at the stock.

  

  IDEXX is an interesting company, and it had a few industry segments. For example, IDEXX provides diagnostic solutions for pets. It also develops diagnostic tests to detect diseases in livestock and poultry. The company also does water testing so it can spot E. coli. IDEXX has more than 10,000 employees and it serves over 175 countries.

  IDEXX mostly stays out of the headlines although it has faced anti-trust lawsuits. This is common among companies with strong positions in their market. IDEXX usually runs its gross margin near 60% and its operating margin around 30%. I also really like the recurring revenue model.

  For its Q2, IDEXX had reported earnings of $3.63 per share. That was 33 cents per share better than Wall Street’s consensus, and 49% better than last year’s result. Quarterly sales rose 11% to $1.11 billion which beat estimates of $1.07 billion.

  

  CEO Jay Mazelsky said, “We saw exceptional momentum with IDEXX InVue Dx™ placements, exceeding expectations as veterinarians adopted this slide-free technology to streamline workflows and gain faster, more accurate clinical insights. This growth builds on the successful launch of IDEXX Cancer Dx™ in North America. Our focus on helping veterinarians gain deeper diagnostic insights to inform patient care continues to drive customer loyalty and sets a solid foundation for sustained long-term growth.”

  IDEXX raised its full-year guidance to a range of $12.40 to $12.76 per share. The previous guidance was $11.93 to $12.43 per share.

  IDEXX also raised its 2025 sales guidance from the $4.10 billion to $4.21 billion range up to $4.21 billion to $4.28 billion.

  I can’t say that IDEXX is a bargain at these prices, but it’s an innovative company that’s not well-known and it has very sound finances. Over the last 34 years, its total return has exceeded 67,000%.

  That’s all for now. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

  – Eddy

• Morning News: August 5, 2025
  Eddy Elfenbein, August 5th, 2025 at 7:06 am

  Russia’s Secret War and the Plot to Kill a German CEO

  White House Shouldn’t Let Putin Off the Hook Now

  Israel’s Financial Markets Are Soaring Despite 22 Months of Brutal War

  India Shifts to Damage Control After Trump Ratchets Up Threats

  Swiss President Dashes to Washington in Attempt to Sway Trump

  EU Continues to Press for Tariff Exemption on Wine, Spirits as Part of U.S. Deal

  What’s the De Minimis Tariff Loophole and Why Is Trump Closing It?

  Wall Street Bonus Pool to Grow as Stock Rally Defies Tariff Woes

  Fed Voting Structure Raises the Bar for Trump’s Favored Rate

  Trump’s Fed Pick Likely to Find Colleagues Cautious on Rate Cuts

  Trump Says Bessent Doesn’t Want to Be Considered for Fed Chair

  Trump Questions Discrimination Claims, Even One His First Administration Brought

  Trump’s BLS Firing Tests Wall Street’s Reliance on Government Data

  Real Strains Inside the BLS Made It Vulnerable to Trump’s Accusations

  The Jobs Market Is Showing Signs of a ‘He-cession’

  Earning More but in Worse Shape: Hardship Overwhelms Many American Families

  Luckin’s Arrival In the U.S. Is Bad News For the Birthrate-Obsessed

  Our President Is Economically Illiterate

  Wharton’s ‘Collusion’ Paper Is Just How Markets Work

  Global M&A Hits $2.6 Trillion Peak Year-to-Date, Boosted by AI and Quest for Growth

  Norway’s Hedged Bet on Europe’s Energy Future: A Garbage Disposal for Emissions

  In Battle to Save Sacred Land From Mining Giants, Apaches Hope for a Miracle

  US Explores Location Trackers for AI Chips, Official Says

  Taiwan Arrests Six in Probe of TSMC Chip Technology Leak

  Palantir Surges on First $1 Billion Revenue Quarter

  It’s Time for the DOJ to Declare Victory, Settle Google Lawsuits

  On a YouTube Show, Making Machine Parts for Glory and $100,000

  French Industry Gets Boost From Soaring Aviation Output

  Harley-Davidson Names Topgolf Leader as New CEO

  Pfizer Raises Profit View as Cost Cuts Offset Poor Sales Growth

  Marriott Profit Beats Estimates, Fueled by International Hotels

  Why Burgers Cost So Much Right Now

  Yum Brands Earnings Miss Estimates as Pizza Hut, KFC Struggle in the U.S.

  Molson Coors Cuts Outlook Again on Weak US Beer Demand, Tariffs

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• Morning News: August 4, 2025
  Eddy Elfenbein, August 4th, 2025 at 7:04 am

  Turkish Inflation Keeps Edging Down as Central Bank Primes More Rate Cuts

  Swiss Inflation Edged Higher in July

  Trump’s ‘Slap in the Face’ Puts Neutral Switzerland in Trade-War Crossfire

  What’s It Like to Deal With Brutal U.S. Tariffs? Ask Malaysia.

  Trump’s Trade War Targets Data as the New Enemy

  The Stock Market Just Got a Sobering Reality Check

  Wavering US Consumer and Job Market Show Risks to Economy

  American Consumers Are Getting Thrifty Again

  The Fed Was Right to Say No on Interest Rates

  Trump Fired America’s Economic Data Collector. History Shows the Perils.

  Trump Seeks Bigger Overhaul at Labor Statistics Bureau, Adviser Says

  Job Description — Find Better Numbers, or Else

  Why Mortgage Lenders Are Ignoring Trump’s Rollback on Home Appraisal Reviews

  Dudley: The Fed’s Under Siege. It’ll Be Just Fine

  Brokerages Retain September Rate Cut Bets After Soft Jobs Report

  UBS to Pay $300 Million to Resolve US Mortgage Securities Cases

  Jane Street India Trades Show Blurry Line Between Arbitrage and Market Manipulation

  OPEC Plus Will Increase Oil Output

  OPEC+ Supply Finale Teases a New Mystery for Oil Markets

  China Is Choking Supply of Critical Minerals to Western Defense Companies

  Boeing Defense Workers Go on Strike

  Electric Air Taxi Company Plans to Acquire a Helicopter Business

  Silicon Valley Enlists in the Business of War

  Amphenol Strikes Big Broadband Deal in AI Boom

  Is It Still Disney Magic If It’s AI?

  The 20-Somethings Are Swarming San Francisco’s A.I. Boom

  What Happens to AI Startups When Their Founders Jump Ship for Big Tech

  Harley-Davidson Names Topgolf Leader as New CEO

  For a Few CEOs, Pay Keeps Growing—by the Billions

  Tesla Awards ‘Good Faith’ Shares to Musk Worth $29 Billion

  Lilly’s Push to $1 Trillion Derailed by Trade Risks and Obesity Drug Speedbumps

  The ‘Troublemaker’ Behind Netflix’s Biggest Gamble

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• Morning News: August 1, 2025
  Eddy Elfenbein, August 1st, 2025 at 7:03 am

  How the US Weaponized Pakistan Against India

  Eurozone Inflation Holds Steady at Target, Leaving ECB in ‘Good Place’

  Asia Manufacturing Outlook Marks Five-Year Low as Tariff Concerns Linger

  Trump Tariff Blitz Unleashes Delayed Shock to Global Economy

  Trump’s Tariffs: Where He Started, What He Threatened, Where He Ended Up

  Switzerland Is Stunned by 39% U.S. Tariff, Among the Highest in the World

  Cambodia Agrees to a Reduced Tariff and Breathes a Sigh of Relief

  In a Country Trump Says Nobody’s Heard Of, Tariffs Bring Chaos

  Tariffs Land on Taiwan Amid Tension With Washington

  With New 40% Tariff, Trump Takes Aim at U.S. Dependence on China’s Factories

  Stocks Tumble as Investors Grapple With the Rising Cost of Trade

  The Anti-US Axis Isn’t Dead, Just Resting

  Ritholtz: Might Tariffs Get “Overturned”?

  Harm or Help? Why Companies Are Battling Tariffs Meant to Benefit Them.

  Mere Permanency In the Tax Code Will Encourage Economic Growth

  Trump Urges Fed Board to ‘Assume Control’ If Rates Not Cut

  For Trump’s Harvard Deal, $500 Million Is Only a Starting Point

  The Sanctuary Cities Ruling Is a Win for States’ Rights

  Bitcoin Pulls Back to Three-Week Low After Record-Breaking July

  Bridgewater Founder Dalio Sells His Remaining Stake in Firm

  AXA Shares Slide After Currency Fluctuations Bite

  The Nimbleness of Corporate America Is on Full Display

  How Trump Let $1 Trillion Worth of Imports Escape His Tariff Hammer

  Exxon, Chevron Surpass Estimates With Record Oil Production

  Where Human Labor Meets ‘Digital Labor’

  A.I. Researchers Are Negotiating $250 Million Pay Packages. Just Like N.B.A. Stars.

  Amazon Falls as Profit Outlook, Cloud Growth Spook Investors

  What Microsoft’s $4 Trillion Market Value Really Means

  Apple Surprises Investors Worried That It Had Lost Its Touch

  L3Harris Partners With Air Taxi Maker Joby on Military Aircraft

  Etsy Turns From TV Ads Toward Search, With AI as the Wild Card

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