CWS Market Review – March 10, 2026

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We’re now in the second week of Operation Epic Fury, and the economic fallout is becoming very apparent. The most prominent is certainly the big rise in the price of oil.

The Strait of Hormuz is basically shut down and roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply goes through there, as does a lot of fertilizer.

Since the start of military operations, oil has rallied significantly. The price for one barrel of West Texas crude nearly got to $120. That’s up from $57 per barrel at the start of the year. Oil fell sharply on Tuesday after President Trump said the fighting is “going to be ended soon.”

I’ll caution you that traders tend to move fast and quickly overdo it. If the war ends suddenly, then I’d expect oil to pull back, and it could be quick.

On social media, the President Trump wrote:

Short term oil prices, which will drop rapidly when the destruction of the Iran nuclear threat is over, is a very small price to pay for U.S.A., and World, Safety and Peace. ONLY FOOLS WOULD THINK DIFFERENTLY!President DJT

We’ll see, but higher oil prices are already working their way through the economy. In economic terms, rising oil prices act like a tax on consumer spending. Over the past week, the average price at the pump has increased by 51 cents per gallon.

Here’s a look at West Texas crude:

During the day yesterday, the S&P 500 drifted as low as 6,636. That’s more than 5.2% below its intra-day high from a little over one month ago. It’s certainly not a gigantic move, but it’s very different from most of the behavior of the market over the last year.

Overall, the market has been relatively calm given the headlines this week. That’s not unusual. After Pearl Harbor, the stock market slid until April 1942. The ultimate low came on April 28, 1942, 10 days after Jimmy Doolittle’s daring raid over Tokyo. After that, the market had an incredible run for the next 24 years.

As it turns out, yesterday was the 17th anniversary of the big 2009 low. That was probably the best buying opportunity in the last 40 years. Since then, the S&P 500 Total Return Index (which includes dividends) is up 13-fold. If you recall, there were a lot of negative voices back then.

Americans seem more pessimistic on the economy than the numbers would suggest. Pew Research recently found that just 28% of Americans rate the economy as excellent or good while 72% rate it fair or poor.

Last Friday, we got the big jobs report for February. The Labor Department said that the number of jobs in the country fell by 92,000 in February. That was below Wall Street’s estimate for a gain of 50,000 jobs. Some of this can be blamed on the weather and the government shutdown, but not all of it. No matter how you slice it, this was not a good jobs report.

On top of that, the jobs number for January was revised lower to a gain of 126,000 jobs. The economy has now shed jobs in three of the last five months. In December, the economy lost 17,000 jobs. This chart shows that job growth is cresting.

One good piece of news is that hourly wages rose by 0.4% in February. Wall Street had been expecting an increase of just 0.1%. Over the last year, wages rose by 3.8% which is more than inflation. I thought it was interesting that Kohl’s (KSS) reported earnings this morning and its revenue number was lower than expected. The retailer has been working hard to turn itself around.

The jobs report also said that the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%. The unemployment rate is close to a five-year high. The broader U-6 rate fell to 7.9%. The labor force participation rate fell to 62%, which is its lowest since December 2021.

The jobs market has been helped by growth in the number of jobs in the healthcare sector, but even that took a hit thanks to a strike at Kaiser Permanente.

Information services, a sector hit by artificial intelligence-related cuts, also lost jobs, down 11,000 as part of a 12-month trend in which the sector has lost an average of 5,000 per month. Manufacturing saw a loss of 12,000, despite tariffs aimed at reshoring jobs from overseas.

Federal government employment also fell, off 10,000 for the month. President Donald Trump’s efforts to pare federal payrolls has seen a slide of 330,000 jobs, or 11% of the total workforce, since October 2024, a few months before Trump took office, according to the BLS.

Transportation and warehousing saw a reduction of 11,000. Social assistance was one of the few sectors posting a gain, up 9,000. The weather-sensitive construction industry lost 11,000 after surging by 48,000 in January.

The Federal Reserve meets again next week, and it’s very doubtful they’ll make any move, up or down, on interest rates. In fact, they probably won’t do anything in April and June as well.

As of now, the expectations are that we’ll get a rate cut in July or September. The curveball is inflation. If the events in Iran lead to a bump in prices, especially a long bump, that could give the Fed cold feet about making any rate cuts for the rest of this year.

We’ll learn more tomorrow when the government releases the inflation report for September. Wall Street expects to see headline and core inflation of 0.2% for February. I hope that would give more heft to the interest rate doves inside the Fed.

Stock Focus: National Presto

I always enjoy bringing little-known stocks to you. This week, I’m featuring National Presto (NPK) of Eau Claire, Wisconsin. The company is now in its 121st year of operations.

Going by the name, you might think National Presto makes equipment for magicians. Not quite. NPK has one of the more unusual business combinations I know of. The company makes small household appliances (slow cookers, fryers, skillets, etc.). They also make ammo for the War Department. National Presto also has a safety business which makes smoke detectors and carbon monoxide alarms.

It’s an odd fit, but it seems to work. The shares hit another new all-time high today. Since 1988, shares of NPK are up more than 85-fold. Even with all that growth, NPK still has a market value of $1 billion. Best of all, the stock isn’t followed by a single analyst on Wall Street. The stock is already up nearly 40% this year.

Last year, their defense sales rose by 42%. At the end of the year, their defense business backlog stood at $1.4 billion. That’s up from $1.1 billion one year ago.

That’s all for now. The next jobs report will be due out this Friday, March 13. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

– Eddy

Posted by on March 10th, 2026 at 6:12 pm


The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.