Archive for September, 2026

• Morning News: September 8, 2026
  Eddy Elfenbein, September 8th, 2026 at 7:12 am

  Russia, India Seek BrahMos Upgrades as Putin, Modi Set to Meet

  The US Is Running Out of Weapons. Blame Congress

  Oil Climbs Toward $100 a Barrel Following Houthi Attacks

  Before ‘Drill, Baby Drill’ In Venezuela, Better ‘Underground Eyes’ Needed

  Tamarack Valley to Merge With Headwater Exploration in Over $7.24 Billion Deal

  China’s Surging Exports Loom Over Trump’s Talks With Xi

  Three Numbers That Show Just How Big China’s Export Boom Is

  German Exports Decline for First Time in Six Months

  Canada Imposes New Tariffs on U.S. Goods, as Trade War Intensifies

  How US Tariff Fears Are Driving Record Copper Prices

  Why the BOJ Will Bet Small on Rate Hikes Now to Avoid a Bigger Shock Later

  Sahm: The Fed’s Credibility Depends on Resisting Politics, Not Playing It

  Why Stocks Are Defying Gravity and What Could Bring Them Down

  How Almar Latour Steers Dow Jones Through Disruption

  US Earnings Upgrades Are on Their Longest Run in Five Years

  You Bought the Stock, But Who Gets to Call the Shots?

  Millennium Nears $100 Billion in New Era for Giant Hedge Funds

  Bobby Jain’s Hedge Fund Made $1.8 Billion as Millennium Cash Rolls In

  India Eyes AI for Next Finance Leap After Digital Payments Boom

  EverBank to Combine With WaFd to Create $75 Billion Bank

  Robinhood Wins a New Role in the Oura IPO: Underwriter

  Why Labor’s Share of Wealth Is Shrinking

  French A.I. Start-Up Mistral Raises $3.5 Billion as Part of Strategy Shift

  AI Models Buy Time for Forecasters Tracking Hurricanes

  Apple’s $2,000-Plus Foldable iPhone Was a Decade in the Making

  SpaceX Set for Boost From Potential Jump in Nasdaq 100 Weighting

  The U.S. Is Losing Its Ability to Store Water When It Needs It Most

  A Loyal Dissent On the U.S. Manufacturing “Boom”

  Canadian Jet Maker Is Target in Trump’s Trade War

  GE Aerospace to Buy Consolidated Precision Products for $11.75 Billion

  Seaweed Is Their Way of Life. A Company’s Sweeping Plan Threatens It.

  The World Can’t Get Enough of These Japanese Sneakers

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• Morning News: September 7, 2026
  Eddy Elfenbein, September 7th, 2026 at 7:03 am

  Oil Prices Churn After U.S. and Iran Trade Strikes

  OPEC, Allies Agree to Keep Oil Output Steady in October

  Trump’s Empire of Extraction Will Backfire

  China to Pump $54 Billion Into State Banks, Insurers in Capital-Boosting Push

  Yen Rises to Highest Since February, Tops Intervention Rally

  Washington May Have Discovered the Limits of Economic Sanctions

  Trump Says Canada’s Dollar ‘Imbalance’ With US Is Unacceptable

  Canada’s Retaliatory Tariffs Set to Take Effect as Trump Threatens to Escalate

  Trump’s ‘Erratic’ Tariffs Hurt Economy, House Democrat Says

  Global Reserves Shift From Dollar Overstated, NY Fed Study Says

  The Fed’s ‘Family Fight’ Spills Into the Open Before Key Rate Decision

  The Fed Doesn’t “Print,” And The Federal Government Doesn’t “Spend”

  Bitcoin Hack Drains $320 Million From Crypto Network

  Switzerland’s New UBS Plan Is Complex, Costly And Bad

  America’s White-Collar Workers Feel Stuck in Jobs They Don’t Like

  Germany Is In a Very Dark Place, and Time’s Running Out

  How a Blacklisted Chinese Tech Giant Kept Buying America’s Best A.I. Chips

  Jensen Huang Says “AGI has arrived” Following OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra Launch

  Target of Artificial General Intelligence May Be More Like a ‘Spiritual Concept’ for AI Leaders

  When AI Goes Haywire, It Can Resemble a Teenage Psychopath

  Social Media in China Is Getting Really Dark

  The Sealed Document TikTok Doesn’t Want Two Senators to See

  Spain Got a Head Start on Renewables — Now It Needs a Battery Revolution

  German Industrial Production Contracts on Auto Sector Slowdown

  A Tidier Rivian (in Size and Price) Is Ready for the Suburbs

  Carmakers Have a New Idea to Boost EV Range: Add a Gas Engine

  Novo’s Wegovy Reversed Obesity in Study of Young Children

  In Trump’s Second Term, the MAGA Merchandise Boom Is Going Bust

  Hollywood’s Box Office Boom Comes With 248 Million Missing Tickets

  There’s a Legal Fight Brewing at Oktoberfest

  China’s Luxury Panic Leaves the US Holding the Bag

  Diamond Mines Are Closing and South Africans Have Few Alternatives

  Hermès Has Big Watchmaking Ambitions. The Cult of the Birkin Is Getting in the Way

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• Morning News: September 4, 2026
  Eddy Elfenbein, September 4th, 2026 at 7:02 am

  Trump’s Missile Shield Moonshot Bets on Unproven Tech

  Hegseth Has Turned the Army Into a Rudderless Ship

  US Grip on Venezuelan Oil Threatens Billions Owed to China

  With Venezuela’s Oil, Trump Is Doing Exactly As Conservatives Desire

  U.S. Diesel Prices Set New High

  Americans Are Out of Places to Hide From Fuel Crisis

  ‘Nothing But Headaches’: Vermont Businesses Decry Canada Tariffs

  The Bond Markets Are Pushing Up Rates. Will Central Banks Follow?

  Wall Street Should Know How Poorly Seoul Treats U.S. Capital

  Carry Trade Exodus Fuels Yen Gain Ahead of BOJ Rate Decision

  Norway Wealth Fund Proposes Cut to Government Bond Holdings

  What You Can Learn From the Dutch Central Bank’s Reshuffling of Its Gold Reserves

  Washington Still Hasn’t Found a Fix For the Deficit

  Pimco Fund Beating 97% of Peers Cuts ‘Mag Seven’ to Bet on Asia

  Investors Can’t Get Enough of QQQ. Now It Has Competition

  Citi Eyes China Brokerage Unit Licence as Soon as This Month

  Soaring Student Loan Debt Is Driving Some Americans Into the Military

  US Mortgage Rates Climb to 6.71%, Highest Since July 2025

  The American Dream Is Alive. And It’s Minting Millionaires

  Wise and Salutary Neglect: Why Competition Is the Best AI Regulation

  Former Google China Chief Kai-Fu Lee: China Will Win the AI Race for Reach

  Altman’s Opaque AI Is Creating a New Security Dilemma

  Anthropic Finalizing $15 Billion Pre-IPO Credit Facility

  DeepSeek Plans Big Huawei AI Chip Order to Power New Data Center

  New Apple CEO Could Use a Social Media Makeover

  Amazon’s Bid for Advertising ‘Performance Premiums’ Called Out by Regulators

  Tesla Begins Offering Rides in a Car Without a Steering Wheel

  Tesla-Challenging EV Truck Startup Windrose Loses Most of Chinese Staff

  Volkswagen Board Approves Doubling Job Cuts to 100,000 in Surprise Move

  Where Does Spirit Go When It Dies?

  Erica Schwartz Is Failing Her First Test as CDC Head

  ‘The Salt Path’ Is a Lesson in What We Want to Believe

  NFL Confronts Prediction-Market Bets Embraced by Other Leagues

  $100 Million Changed Notre Dame’s No-Advertisement Attitude

  Starbucks Refreshed Its Menu. Chai Fans Are Losing Their Minds.

  Wineries Are Offering Bingo, Picnics, Jewelry … and Sometimes Wine

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• Morning News: September 3, 2026
  Eddy Elfenbein, September 3rd, 2026 at 7:08 am

  Trump Puts Tariffs of Up to 100% on Foreign-Made Drones

  US Diesel Hits Four-Year High as Wars Strain Global Supplies

  Why Trump’s Venezuela Oil Grab Is No Quick Fix for Gas Prices

  Longer Middle East Deployments Strain U.S. Forces as Iran Conflict Drags On

  Lloyd’s Insurance Market Sees £1.4 Billion Loss From US-Iran War

  The Tiny Island Where the US and Canada Could Mend Their Rift

  China-US Spat at G20 Largely Came Down to Dispute Over One Word

  Yen Rallies as Intervention, BOJ Rate Risk Weigh on Wary Traders

  How India Used Its Diaspora to Defend the Rupee

  World’s Unusually High Dollar Exposure Risks Fueling Selloff

  What’s Behind the Big Surge in US Government Bond Yields

  Better Get Used to the Bond Market’s New Normal

  New York’s Own Sovereign Wealth Fund? Why Not?

  Fighting Illicit Finance Shouldn’t Be This Difficult

  Fund Backed by Trump Sons Sold Stocks After Media Attention Drew Investors

  Fewer Americans are Working or Looking for a Job. Experts Can’t Agree on Why

  More Rank-and-File Workers Are Getting Paid in Company Stock

  Why the Courts Struggle to Tame Big Tech

  Silicon Valley’s Big Money Is About to Get a Lot Bigger

  A Data Center Revolt By Historic Battlefield Is Now a Blueprint for Backlash

  Don’t Blame Chinese ‘Psyops’ for Data Center Angst

  Nvidia Agrees to $13 Billion Deal for AI Platform Hugging Face

  AI Tax Increases Are Like the Tractor Tax Proposals of Old

  The Pushback Against AI Songs Is Music to My Ears

  AI’s Environmental Impact Per Task Balloons With More Complexity

  Wall Street Bets on Shielding Indian Real Estate from Climate Disaster

  Radiant World Sent Lender Fake Glencore Deals, Lawsuit Says

  Ford’s $30,000 EV Truck Sets Ambitious Goal: 100,000 Sales in Year One

  Volkswagen Shakes Up U.S. Leadership Again After Steep Sales Declines

  India’s Homegrown EV Revolution

  Trump’s Tactics to Lower Beef Prices and Appease Ranchers Fall Short

  Campbell’s Looks to Reset After Quarterly Loss

  The Next Generation of Drinkers Is Breaking Up With Bubbly Booze

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• Morning News: September 2, 2026
  Eddy Elfenbein, September 2nd, 2026 at 7:04 am

  Nepal Seeks Climate Compensation From China, US and India

  US Diesel Hits Highest Since April as Wars Strain Supply

  Venezuela’s New Crop of Oil Barons Step Up Their Dealmaking

  Chevron to Invest $7 Billion Doubling Its Venezuelan Output

  Tactical Nukes Are a Gateway Drug to Armageddon

  Don’t Cut Off Friends to Reach Out to North Korea

  The Supreme Court’s Ballroom Decision Is About More Than the Ballroom

  The Multifaceted Stupidity of Trump’s Canadian Trade War

  Why Canada Can’t Win the Trade War With the U.S.

  China-US Yield Gap Nears Record High as Treasury Selloff Deepens

  Global Debt Is Slumping But It’s Nothing Like the 2022 Rout

  Yen Gains After BOJ Hawk Leaves Door Open for Outsized Hike

  Treasury Yields Hit New Highs as World Leaders Squabble at Fractured G-20

  Bessent’s Bond Gains Wiped Out as Treasury Yields Jump Again

  What Rising Global Bond Rates Mean for Your Money

  Apollo’s Slok Says US Yields Set to Rise on Iran War, Tariffs

  A $40 Billion ETF Shuffle Helps Foreign Investors Dodge US Taxes

  Can a Waiting Period Curb Our Risky Investing Tendencies?

  Parents Push Teens to Start Investing Earlier Than They Did

  Most Americans Consider Themselves ‘Working Class,’ Pew Says

  South Korean FX Authorities Bought $20 Billion in Repatriated SK Hynix Funds

  Tencent-Backed Enflame’s IPO Draws 4,073 Times Retail Demand

  The Solution to Alleged AI Bias Will Be Found In the Market

  Nvidia Nears $14 Billion Hugging Face Deal This Week

  To Ease His AI Worries, Bill Gates Should Meet Karl Ravech

  Don’t Be Seduced by the Language of AI

  Elon Musk Wants to Make Power-Turbine Components. It Won’t Be Easy

  Uber to Cut 3,300 Jobs in Company Overhaul to Reduce Management Layers

  Aspen Earnings Rise as Drugmaker Targets Weight-Loss Market

  Employer Health Costs Are Expected to Spike in 2027

  Inside the Fight Against a Flesh-Eating Fly in Mexico

  Saturday Evening Post Will Stop Printing After 205 Years

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• CWS Market Review – September 1, 2026
  Eddy Elfenbein, September 1st, 2026 at 6:02 pm

  (This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

  Welcome to the Late 2020s!

  Yesterday, the month of August came to a close, and it was a decent one for Wall Street. The S&P 500 gained 2.6% for the month, which isn’t so bad for a monthly return.

  

  The problem for us now is that we’re in September. Although September is one of my favorite months (football, sweaters!), it’s been a terrible month for investors. Over the last century, September has been, on average, the worst month for stocks. In fact, it’s the worst for stocks by far.

  Since 1928, the S&P 500 has averaged a loss of 1.17% during September. Not only that, but October is pretty bad as well. It’s been the fourth-worst month for stocks. September and October have historically combined to give investors an unwelcomed one-two punch.

  Not only did the month of August come to an end yesterday, but we’re just over two-thirds of the way through the 2020s. In fact, you could say that we’re now into the late 2020s. So far, the S&P 500 is up 137.9% this decade. With dividends, the S&P 500 is 162.8% for the decade so far.

  Historically, later in the decade has been much better for investors. In fact, the market has averaged a small loss over the first quarter of each decade. After the first 80 months of a decade, where we are now, the S&P 500 has gained 87.6%. But over the final third of a decade, the S&P 500 has posted an average gain of 62.1%. That’s not bad considering the final third is only half as much time as the first two-thirds of a decade.

  This has also been a traditionally tough time for stocks during the presidential election cycle. Historically, the mid-term year has been lousy for stocks, but the market turns toward the bulls during the final quarter of the mid-term year. After that, it’s been a sharp 30% bull run until the middle of the pre-election year.

  Stocks and Bonds Part Ways

  To be clear, I don’t put a lot of faith in these calendar effects, although I do find them interesting. For example, the stock market’s entire gain has come over the last few and first few days of each month. The middle of the month is pretty much flat.

  I do have a concern lately in that the stock and bond markets seem to have parted ways. As a very general rule of thumb, the bond market tends to lead the stock market by several months. Several bear markets have been preceded by sharp downturns in bond prices. It makes sense if you view it as investors dumping safer assets and chasing riskier assets.

  Here’s a chart of the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and the Long-Term Treasury Bonds ETF (TLT):

  

  Notice how bond prices have turned down over the last six months even as stock prices have soared. It’s the big divergence that grabs my attention. The stock market last closed at a new high on August 13. Since then, it hasn’t done much. Today, the S&P 500 fell for the third day in a row. Lately, value stocks have resumed leading the market. I suspect that’s going to last.

  Higher bonds can easily harm economic growth. In fact, mortgage rates are at a 14-month high. The average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage is now 6.87%. Those higher borrowing costs radiate out across the entire housing industry.

  It’s not just here; bond prices around the world have fallen lower. In Japan and Britain, yields surged to multi-decade highs. The 30-year British Treasury is close to a 28-year high.

  Tech stocks have been acting a little better lately, though they’re still well below the relative strength high we saw in early June. There’s still a lot of uncertainty as the U.S. has launched more strikes against Iran and oil prices have climbed higher. Now we’ve learned that interest rates may soon be rising again.

  What Happened at the Fed’s Jackson Hole Meeting

  The Federal Reserve held its annual get-together at Jackson Hole, WY over the weekend. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh spoke on Friday, and he sounded a hawkish note.

  Warsh said the Fed has more work to do to bring inflation in line with the Fed’s target. He also cautioned that there are some signs that the markets see possible risks in the near future. Investors are clearly worried about excess valuations and slower growth.

  There are a few items that Warsh mentioned that I want to highlight for you. First is that Warsh tried to avoid saying anything that could be construed as guidance. That’s good to hear and it gets rid of a silly guessing game on Wall Street.

  Specifically, Warsh said, “We should not indulge a regime in which market participants are looking primarily to the Fed for their next trade.” That’s very good to hear. Warsh said:

  Forward guidance as a regular practice was adopted by my colleagues and me during the Global Financial Crisis. It was essential at the time, and we introduced it with much fanfare. But, as with other legacies of crises past, I believe that the practice has overstayed its welcome.

  Instead, Warsh said he wanted to give his broad overview of where the U.S. economy is right now. Warsh acknowledged that the inflation picture has gotten better, but — and this is the key — he still isn’t convinced that the underlying trends have improved.

  Warsh pointed out that over the last six months, 49% of the goods and services in the PCE showed annual price increases of more than 3% which is, in Warsh’s words, “still quite elevated.”

  Warsh essentially declared war on inflation, and the jobs market will take the backseat.

  In the trading pits, futures traders pushed up the odds of a rate hike later this month. A week ago, traders said the odds were just 43% that the Fed would hike in September.

  After Jackson Hole, the odds shot up to 68%. The next Fed meeting is on September 16. Traders also see a rate hike coming at the December meeting. I’m not convinced about that just yet, but I was surprised by the defiant attitude from the Fed chairman. He makes it clear what his agenda is.

  In June, I told you about the very good earnings report from Science Applications International (SAIC). This is a wonderful company. I’ve described it as the IT helpdesk for the Pentagon.

  I’ll cover the stock in more detail in our premium issue, but I wanted to share some impressive numbers with you.

  For its fiscal Q1 (ending May 1), SAIC made $3.23 per share. That was 41% above Wall Street’s forecast of $2.28 per share. SAIC also raised its full-year earnings range from $9.50 to $9.70 per share, to $9.90 to $10.10 per share.

  Last week, SAIC reported earnings again, and again, it flattened Wall Street’s estimates. For its fiscal Q2, SAIC made $3.01 per share. The consensus on Wall Street had been for $2.31 per share.

  The company raised its full-year guidance again. SAIC now sees full year earnings ranging between $10.65 and $10.75 per share. Over the last seven months, SAIC has gained more than 55% for us.

  

  If you want to see our complete coverage on our Buy List stocks, please sign up for our premium issues here ($20/month or $200/year).

  That’s all for now. The stock market will be closed next Monday for Labor Day. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

  – Eddy

• Morning News: September 1, 2026
  Eddy Elfenbein, September 1st, 2026 at 7:03 am

  The US-Venezuela Oil Deal Looks Like It Is Built on Quicksand

  US Gets Board Veto, Right of First Refusal in Venezuela Oil Deal

  Two U.S. Foes Join Forces—and Threaten to Further Destabilize the Middle East

  How Cooking Gas Became a Barometer for the Iran War’s Energy Shock

  Iran Uses Xi-Putin Bloc to Counter Bessent’s Economic Warfare

  Companies Slash Consumer Choice to Save on Import Costs

  Global Bond Selloff Sends Yields to the Highest Level Since 2008

  Warsh’s Pledge on Stable Prices Will Soon Be Tested

  Gold Stocks Cap Best August in Decades in Debasement Trade Redux

  Trillion-Dollar Dislocation Hides in Calm Credit Markets

  Private Equity Wants to Invest in College Sports. Some Schools Are Wary

  Bobby Jain’s Hedge Fund Made $1.8 Billion as Millennium Cash Rolls In

  Donald Trump Jr.’s Firm Leads $1 Billion Funding Round for Polymarket

  Kalshi Permanently Bars George Santos From the Platform

  No, Social Security Is Not the Cause of the National Debt

  Trump’s Popularity Has Reached a Critical Point

  Shein’s Lackluster Debut Shows a Fast-Fashion Model Left Behind

  China Calls Time on the Home-Sales System That Worsened Its Meltdown

  Luxury Homes in Seattle Languish With AI Job Cuts and Taxes Hitting Tech Hub

  Welcome to the ‘You Can’t Trust Your Own Eyes’ Election

  By the Time Governments Are Regulating AI, They’re Regulating the Past

  MediaTek Cements Its Standing as AI Player With Nvidia’s Backing

  Apple’s 2,275% Gain Under Tim Cook Is a Tough Act for John Ternus to Follow

  Amazon Sued by FTC, 22 US States Over Ad Sales Practices

  Fervo Secures Its Largest-Ever Geothermal Power Deal, With Google

  Road Safety Policy Rests on a Statistical Illusion

  China Makes Cars So Quickly That Regulators Are Getting Worried

  The Ex-Beer Baron Turning Windshield Repair Into a $7.8 Billion-a-Year Empire

  ‘Off the Sidelines’—Lowe’s CEO Marshals Skilled Workers Coalition

  A Top Virus Scientist Stared Down Covid Lab-Leak Proponents. Now His Life’s Work Is at Stake

  Chobani Plans Milk Expansion With $1.2 Billion Plant Investment

  Jersey Mike’s Is Winning the Sandwich War. It Still Needs to Win Over Gen Z.

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