Author Archive

• CWS Market Review – October 21, 2025
  Eddy Elfenbein, October 21st, 2025 at 6:32 pm

  (This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

  The S&P 500 closed higher today for the third up day in a row, although it was a tiny gain today (+0.0033%). The index is now within striking distance of its all-time high close from almost two weeks ago. I’ve been impressed by how easily the market can move past troubling news.

  

  Right now, Wall Street is focused on earnings. This is the time of year when we learn which companies have been doing well and which have not. Companies that fall short of expectations can expect to be punished by the market gods.

  Earnings season is moving into high gear. We already have some early numbers, but I caution you not to read too much into such a small sample size.

  So far, 78 companies in the S&P 500 have reported their Q3 numbers. Of those, 87.2% have beaten expectations. The long-term average “beat rate” is 67%. (That’s correct. On Wall Street, you’re expected to beat expectations.)

  For the quarter, earnings are expected to grow by 9.2%. In fact, if you don’t count the energy sector, then earnings are expected to be up by 10.1%. The tech sector is expected to have earnings growth of 22.2%.

  We had several more earnings reports today. Coca-Cola (KO), for example, had a good report. It beat on sales and earnings but the soft drink company said that sales may be soft going forward. In particular, Coke said that lower-income folks are buying less soda. The good news is that Coke stuck by its full-year forecast.

  Coke is a bluechip as is 3M (MMM). The Post-It notes company said this morning that it made $2.19 per share which beat estimates of $2.07 per share. Sales rose 3.5% to $6.52 billion. Wall Street had been expecting $6.25 billion.

  The best news is that 3M boosted guidance. For this year, 3M sees earnings coming in between $7.95 and $8.05 per share. The previous range was $7.75 to $8 per share.

  Danaher (DHR), a long-time favorite of ours, reported good news. Wall Street had been expecting earnings of $1.72 per share. Instead, Danaher said it made $1.89 per share. Sales rose to $6.05 billion which was $50 million more than Wall Street had expected. Danaher also reiterated its full-year range of $7.70 to $7.80 per share.

  Shares of Danaher got a nice lift in today’s trading, which also helped Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO), a competitor which is also one of our Buy List stocks. TMO is due to report tomorrow.

  But the biggest surprise may be General Motors (GM). The stock soared on its results.

  The carmaker said it made $2.80 per share which was well above estimates of $2.31 per share. Quarterly revenue fell a bit to $48.59 billion. Wall Street had been expecting $45.27 billion.

  GM raised its earnings guidance to a range of $9.75 to $10.50 per share from the earlier range of $8.25 to $10.00 per share.

  After the closing bell today, Netflix (NFLX) reported a big earnings miss. The company made $5.87 per share. That’s $1.10 below estimates. For Q4, NFLX sees earnings of $5.45 per share which was one penny better than estimates.

  How about Beyond Meat (BYND)? You might think the company has had a rough time. After all, its stock fell from a peak of $239 per share six years ago to 50 cents last week. But the stock has soared in recent days thanks to its inclusion in the Roundhill Meme Stock ETF (MEME). The stock gained 146% today.

  Over the summer, I told you about Mueller Industries (MLI), which is one of our Buy List stocks. I like Mueller a lot. It’s a well-run mid-cap that’s largely overlooked by Wall Street. The stock is up over 30% this year.

  Mueller makes and sells copper, brass, and aluminum products. The company operates through three segments: Piping Systems, Industrial Metals, and Climate. You may have noticed that copper prices are soaring and much of the reason is our tariff policy. Since early 1992, the stock is up by 40,000% yet only one analyst follows it.

  For Q2, Mueller’s net income was $1.96 per share. That’s compared with $1.41 per share for the same quarter one year ago. The lone analyst had been expecting Q2 earnings of $1.62 per share. Mueller’s net cash generated from operations was $190.6 million.

  This morning, Mueller reported Q3 earnings of $1.88 per share. That’s up from $1.48 per share one year ago. Copper averaged $4.83 per pound during the quarter, which is a 14.3% increase over last year. The company has no debt and a cash position of $1.3 billion.

  

  Mueller’s CEO said, “Looking forward, we are highly optimistic about our business. Our plants operate most effectively when fully loaded. Given our additional capacity, we therefore expect to benefit from even greater production efficiencies when demand rebounds.”

  MLI rallied over 4% today. I’ll repeat what I said this summer. If business continues to go well at Mueller, then I think the company can earn $6 per share this year and perhaps $6.50 per share next year. If that’s correct, then the company is attractively valued. The stock reached a new all-time high today.

  The prices for gold and silver plunged today. In fact, it was one of the worst daily losses for the metals in years. Silver futures lost more than 7% today.

  Both metals have rallied spectacularly in recent weeks. Every pullback turned into a buying opportunity. Could this one be different?

  In this week’s issue, I want to talk more about silver. Last week, the price for silver got above $54 per ounce. That’s a market gain of more than 85% on the year. The metal passed its all-time high reach more than 35 years ago.

  

  In 1979-80, there was a furious rally in silver when two Texas brothers tried to buy all the silver in the world. What’s even crazier is that they nearly got away with it.

  When Nelson Bunker Hunt and Herbert Hunt started their plan, silver was around $6 per ounce. By early 1980, it got to $50 per ounce. That’s close to $200 adjusted for inflation. Time Magazine estimated they made between $2 billion and $4 billion in just nine months. To pull this off, they had to borrow enormous amounts of money. At one point, it was estimated that they held one-third of the world’s deliverable silver. Tiffany took out a full-page article to denounce them.

  The Hunt brothers were the sons of the legendary oilman, Haroldson Lafayette “H.L” Hunt, Jr. Hunt the senior wrote a novel based on his idea of a fascist utopia called Alpaca. I remember one person calling it “1984, but Big Brother is the good guy.”

  Not all the Hunts were so eccentric. Lamar Hunt was one of the most influential people in the development of modern football. He was the one who came up with the name “Super Bowl.” To this day, the winner of the AFC championship game is awarded the Lamar Hunt Trophy.

  The Hunts were convinced that the Establishment was out to crush them, and they were pretty much right. The COMEX changed the margin requirement which forced the brothers to put up much more collateral.

  (By the way, one of my first jobs in this industry was making margin calls. That’s not a metaphor. I had to actually call people to tell them they had to sell or put up more money.)

  On March 27, 1980, the bottom fell out of the silver market. In one day, silver dropped by 50%. This is now known as “Silver Thursday.” In one day, the Hunts lost $1.7 billion. The brothers had to put up more money, but they couldn’t reach their margin requirement. The government was worried that Wall Street banks were so much in debt to the Hunts that if the Hunts went under, so would the banks. A silver panic could start a banking panic.

  The Hunts had finally been broken. By 1982, silver was going for less than $5 per ounce. They later filed for Chapter 11. The brothers eventually become the models for brothers Randolph and Mortimer Duke in the movie Trading Places.

  That’s all for now. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

  – Eddy

• Morning News: October 21, 2025
  Eddy Elfenbein, October 21st, 2025 at 7:07 am

  Sanae Takaichi Becomes Japan’s First Female Prime Minister

  Walking the US-China Tightrope

  China Has Another Lever to Pull in Showdown With Trump: Factory Lines

  Tariffs Are Reshaping China’s Trade. This Tanzanian Sees an Opportunity

  Supreme Court Is Told Trump Tariffs Are Illegal $3 Trillion Tax

  Trump Hopes Argentina Can Help Bring Down Meat Prices

  US Banks Hunting for Collateral to Back $20 Billion Argentina Bailout

  There’s a Better Way to Help Argentina

  Shutdown With No Clear End Poses New Economic Threat

  Stock Rally Fades Ahead of Inflation; Gold Slips

  The Natural Rate of Interest Foretells America’s Fiscal Doom

  US Bank Rout Prompts Deal Speculation as Credit Worries Loom

  $37 Trillion: The Screaming Tell About the Futility of Budgetary Balance

  Congress Got Business Taxes Right, and Americans Will Benefit

  CEO Vibes Are as Misleading as Consumer Angst

  Activist Starboard Takes Big Stake in Construction Firm

  CenterPoint Energy to Sell Ohio Gas Distribution Unit for $2.62 Billion

  Russia’s Crude Shipments Climb Close to a Post-Invasion High

  ‘996’ Is a Chinese Tech Trend the US Should Skip

  SoftBank-Backed GetYourGuide Says It’s Profitable

  How Trump Is Using Fake Imagery to Attack Enemies and Rouse Supporters

  OpenAI Hires Ex-Goldman Staff to Help Cut Down Junior Bankers’ Grunt Work

  How Oracle’s Dual CEOs Will Co-Lead Its AI Makeover

  ChatGPT Should Make Retailers Nervous

  Major Vulnerability Exposed in Amazon’s Global Internet Outage

  A Theory Why the Internet Is Going Down the Toilet

  GM Earnings Tumble on Tariffs, EV Write-Downs

  This Expert Led Tesla’s AI Efforts — And Says the Technology Is a Decade Away from Primetime

  Spiro Raises $100 Million for E-Motorbike Network in Africa

  Let Drug Buyers See the Books of Pharmacy Benefit Managers

  UnitedHealth’s ‘Optum Real’ Uses AI to Speed Up Medical Claims

  Danaher Sales and Profit Rise on Bioprocessing Momentum

  Coca-Cola Continues Bottling-Network Overhaul With $2.6 Billion Africa Stake Sale

  It’s Like Uber Eats But for Israeli Arabs Without Home Addresses

  NBCUniversal Made a $27 Billion Bet on the NBA. Will It Pay Off?

  How Depop Captured the Heart of Gen Z

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• Morning News: October 20, 2025
  Eddy Elfenbein, October 20th, 2025 at 7:07 am

  India Sees Emissions Peaking in 2045 Under New Climate Plan

  Australia Pitches to Be US Fix for China’s Rare Earths Curbs

  White House Is Cutting Rare-Earth Research at the Wrong Time

  How China Took Over the World’s Rare-Earths Industry

  Copper Gains on Easing Trade Tensions, China’s Economic Outlook

  Texas Oil Men Catch the Buzz About New Nuclear Technology

  Trump Lists Top Demands on China Before Trade Talks Resume

  China’s Global Network of Shipping Ports Is Too Big for Trump to Unravel

  China Is Already Winning the Trade War America Wanted

  China’s Economy Holds Steady, but Consumers Grow More Cautious

  Global Economy ‘Yet To Feel The Pain’ From Tariffs, European Central Bank President Says

  Trade Wars Have Undermined the Dollar Exchange System

  Milei Can No More ‘Dollarize’ Argentina Than He Can Decree Happiness

  American Cities Have Issues. Troops Won’t Solve Them.

  Will Trump Do It? It Pays to Bet ‘No’

  Paul Ryan’s Border Adjustment Tax Is a Dangerous Illusion

  US Futures Rise as Investors Turn Gaze to Earnings

  One of Wall Street’s ‘Golden’ Geese Is Under Fire. Here’s How Worried You Should Be About Private Credit.

  Families Worth $110 Billion Boost Dividends Even as Profits Slow

  BNP Slumps After Ruling Raises Risk of Costly Settlement

  The Bloomberg New Economy Catalyst List

  From Mexico to Ireland, Fury Mounts Over a Global A.I. Frenzy

  How Chile Embodies A.I.’s No-Win Politics

  Trump’s Duty-Free AI Boom Zips Past the Sluggish Global Economy

  Amazon Delivery Firms Are Bailing Amid Rising Costs, Meager Profit

  Amazon Disruption Forces Hundreds of Websites Offline for Hours

  What Is Amazon Web Services?

  Defense Tech Startups Turn Focus to Space Warfare

  Lower-Income Americans Are Missing Car Payments

  These Jobs Often Go Overseas. One Company Is Bringing Them to Rural America.

  Why Are More Retirees Going Back to College?

  San Francisco Emerges From the Shadow of a Doom Loop

  Activist Jana Pushes Big Contact-Lens Combination of Cooper and Bausch + Lomb

  Smucker vs. Trader Joe’s, Lululemon vs. Costco: Fight Over Brands Goes to Court

  The Fraudster Behind Steve Ballmer’s NBA Nightmare

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• Morning News: October 17, 2025
  Eddy Elfenbein, October 17th, 2025 at 7:02 am

  Chile’s $117 Million Snafu Sends Inflation Expectations Lower

  IMF Sees ‘Significant’ Risks to Global Growth from US-China Row

  Australia Woos Wall Street Firms in China Diversification Play

  Bessent Is Reverting to His Hedge Fund Ways With Argentina

  Shutdown Leaves Fed in Dark on Data as It Weighs Next Rate Move

  Powell Has Backing for 2025 Rate Cuts and Then Things Get Cloudy

  Why Is Paul Ryan So Eager To Increase Federal Tax Revenues?

  For 3 Years, the Bull Market Defied Inflation, Tariffs and Gravity

  Termites Erode Dollar’s Foundation But Alternatives Are Lacking

  Global Bank Stocks Slide as US Credit Risks Spark Reality Check

  Fifth Third Profit Jumps on Fee Income, Records $178 Million Loss from Tricolor Bankruptcy

  BBVA’s Relentless Pursuit of Sabadell Ends in Stunning Defeat

  The Fair Housing Act Has Shrunken Affordable Housing

  The Era of the Illiquid Millionaire Is Here

  Portugal’s Golden Visas Boost Classic Cars, Almonds and Equities

  Meet Polymarket’s $400 Million Man

  Delaware Will Keep the Corporations Because It Must

  Apple, Caught Between U.S. and China, Pledges Investment in Both

  Shipping’s Carbon Tax Hangs in Balance Amid US Opposition

  The Auto Industry Is Panicking About Another Potential Chip Shortage

  AI Chipmaker Cambricon’s Sales Soar 14-Fold With Nvidia Shut Out

  Is Rick Perry’s AI Energy IPO a Bubble or a Warning? Yes

  Silicon Valley Is Investing in the Wrong A.I.

  Delta and United Are Leaving Other Airlines Behind

  Trump Refiles His $15 Billion Defamation Lawsuit Against The New York Times

  Smartmatic Added to Bribery Indictment of the Company’s Executives

  Invite to an Anti-DEI Activist Prompts HR Pros to Pull Out of Industry Event

  Walmart, Once a Byword for Low Pay, Becomes a Case Study in How to Treat Workers

  Novo, Lilly Fall as Trump Touts ‘Much Lower’ Ozempic Price

  The $11 Billion Oura Ring Is Finding Its Voice

  NBA Commissioner Adam Silver Has a Steve Ballmer Problem on His Hands

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• Morning News: October 16, 2025
  Eddy Elfenbein, October 16th, 2025 at 7:06 am

  Lower U.S. Tariffs Would Boost India Growth Outlook, Says Central Bank Chief

  US-China Trade War Boils Over and Gets Personal

  The Small Company in Europe Caught in the Big Trade War Between the U.S. and China

  China Has Overtaken America

  China’s Rare Earth Restrictions Aim to Beat U.S. at Its Own Game

  Xi’s Rare Earth Shock Gives Trump a Chance to Win Over US Allies

  Obscure Commodity Trader’s Breakneck Rise Rattles a Global Market

  What Happens When Oil and Gas Wells Die? West Virginia Has a New Plan for That

  Dan Sundheim’s D1 Seeks $1 Billion for New Private Equity Fund

  Mapping the Scale of Beleaguered First Brands’ Debts and Its Creditors

  BNY Quarterly Profit Boosted by Higher Interest, Fees

  Bank of America, BNY Sued Over Alleged Financial Ties to Jeffrey Epstein

  A Glaring Broadband Mistake In the Annual Defense Budget

  Judge Blocks Federal Firings During Shutdown For Now

  The Penny’s Demise Is Leaving Some Businesses Shortchanged

  Prologis Raises Outlook as Warehouse Leasing Picks Up

  TSMC Raises Outlook in Vote of Confidence for AI ‘Megatrend’

  AI Data Centers, Desperate for Electricity, Are Building Their Own Power Plants

  OpenAI’s Pivot to Porn Is Problematic — But Lucrative

  AstraZeneca Gets Rare Sell as Deutsche Bank Has Pipeline Worries

  Instagram on TV Is an Idea That Would Require a Fundamental Change

  Prospects Dim for Denmark’s Renewable Energy Star

  Electric Vehicles Make Up 11 Percent of US Car Sales

  Families of Jeju Air Crash Victims Sue Boeing

  Feds Find No Evidence of Tariff Cheating Among Appliance Makers

  IKEA’s Low-Price Mantra Is Tested by Trump’s Tariffs

  IKEA Turns to Small-Town Shoppers to Power Its Next Growth Phase

  World’s Largest Food Company Is Cutting 16,000 Jobs Due Partly to Automation

  Smucker’s Sues Trader Joe’s Over ‘Copycat’ Uncrustables

  Is Private Equity Ready to Burn $50 Million on Failing Coaches?

  Nike Should Just Do It and Sell Converse

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• Morning News: October 15, 2025
  Eddy Elfenbein, October 15th, 2025 at 7:05 am

  Trump’s Trade War Unites Lula and Modi in a Hunt for New Markets

  Trump Threatens Retaliation for China’s Soy Boycott

  Why the ‘TACO’ Trade Is Again Tempting Investors Amid US-China Brinkmanship

  Ports Push Back on Trump’s Tariffs on Cargo Equipment

  Trump’s Shutdown Power Grab Goes Unchecked by GOP Lawmakers

  Waiting for Deregulation Is Like ‘Waiting for Godot’

  Data Darkness in US Spreads a Global Shadow

  Falling Inflation Predicts Rising Government Spending and Debt

  Poland’s Bond Demand Jumps at Start of Bumper Quarter for Sales

  The Great Debasement Trade Is Mostly Just Hype

  AI’s Effect on the US Economy Is Exaggerated

  Powell Signals Fed Is on Track to Keep Cutting Rates

  Morgan Stanley Stock Traders Trounce Goldman in Record Quarter

  Blue Owl Chief Points to Bank Loans for Dimon Cockroach Warning

  Oaktree Made Money on First Brands With Early Exit, Marks Says

  ABN Amro Warns Mortgage, Wealth Management Margins Under Pressure

  Japan’s Rakuten Weighing US IPO of Credit Card Business

  BlackRock’s GIP Buys Aligned Data Centers in $40 Billion Bet

  Microsoft Cuts Fourth Nscale Deal With Texas AI Data Center

  The Frothiest AI Bubble Is in Energy Stocks

  EU Military Plan Pitches Drone and Air Defense Projects for 2026

  The US Is Racing to Rebuild Its Submarine Power Before China Catches Up

  The Rest of the World Is Following America’s Retreat on EVs

  Stellantis Unveils $13 Billion U.S. Investment Plan

  Abbott Cuts Top End of 2025 Guidance as Tariff Threat Looms

  Two Positive Trends in Household Wealth

  This Company Is Handing Workers $72,000 Baby Bonuses

  Grocery Prices Keep Rising. Frustrated Consumers Are Trying to Adapt.

  Soon You’ll Be Able to Shop Walmart in ChatGPT. Here’s Why It Matters.

  Most U.S. Consumers Expect Higher Holiday Prices and a Weaker Economy

  Netflix Jumps Into Podcasts With Spotify Deal

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• CWS Market Review – October 14, 2025
  Eddy Elfenbein, October 14th, 2025 at 6:05 pm

  (This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

  In recent issues, I’ve talked about how placid the stock market has been. The S&P 500 just ran off 34 days in a row without a 1% change. That’s the longest such streak in nearly 50 years.

  Well, that all came to a crashing end on Friday when the stock market fell 2.7% on news of the Trump administration’s tariff threats.

  Interestingly, Friday’s stock drop had a huge divide between—exactly what we’ve been talking about—High Beta and Low Vol stocks. On Friday, the High Beta sector fell about 5% while the Low Vol sector was largely flat. That’s a huge gap.

  

  I knew there was going to be a rotation, but I had no idea when. I’m not ready to proclaim this as the start of a Low Vol rally, but it shows these exact tensions within the market. The High Beta stocks performed well as long as the market did well, and the market did well as long as the economic news was positive.

  Investors need to understand how much of the rally has been placed on the shoulders of just a few stocks.

  Q3 Earnings Begins

  Today was also the first big day of Q3 earnings season. The big banks went first and it looks like Q3 was a good one for Wall Street.

  Goldman Sachs (GS) said it made $12.25 per share which beat estimates for $11 per share. That’s an increase of 37% over last year. Revenues climbed 20% to $15.18 billion. That beat estimates for $14.1 billion. Goldman’s investment banking fees increased 42% to $2.66 billion.

  One weak spot was Goldman’s equity trading division. Sales rose 7% to $3.74 billion, which was $160 million below the estimate. Revenue at Goldman’s fixed income division rose 17% to $3.47 billion. That topped estimates by $289 million.

  Goldman’s stock has done well this year, but the stock fell a little bit in today’s trading.

  JPMorgan Chase (JPM) said its Q3 profit rose 12% to $14.39 billion, or $5.07 per share. That beat estimates of $4.84 per share. JPM’s revenues increased 9% to $47.12 billion compared with expectations of $45.4 billion.

  I was impressed by JPM’s trading segments. For Q3, JPMorgan’s trading division had revenues of $8.9 billion. Fixed-income trading grew 21% to $5.6 billion. That’s about $300 million more than expected. Equity trading rose 33% to $3.3 billion. That also beat estimates.

  JPM’s provision for credit losses rose 9% to $3.4 billion. The estimate was for $3.08 billion. This suggests the banks are getting ready for more defaults.

  It appears that the tariff uncertainty has benefited Wall Street. CEO Jamie Dimon said, “While there have been some signs of a softening, particularly in job growth, the U.S. economy generally remained resilient.”

  Citigroup (C) has had a very good year and today we saw why. Citi said it made $2.24 per share which beat estimates of $1.90 per share. That’s up 15% over last year. Revenue rose 9% to $22.09 billion which was $1 billion more than expected.

  The bank continues to do well. For Q3, Citi’s banking revenues rose 34%. The bank’s services division had revenue growth of 7%. Also, Citi’s market segment posted a revenue increase of 15%.

  Shares of BlackRock (BLK) rose to a new all-time high today. The company is the largest money manager in the world. It now has assets under management of $13.46 trillion. That’s up 17% in the last year.

  For the quarter, BLK made $11.55 per share which beat Wall Street’s forecast. The shares rallied to a new all-time high.

  Shares of Wells Fargo (WFC) rallied more than 7% after the bank reported solid earnings for its Q3. The Federal Reserve lifted WFC’s asset cap of $1.95 trillion. Since 2019, Wells has closed 13 consent orders. It still has one more to go.

  CEO Charlie Scharf said, “We are now on a path to grow more broadly with the lifting of the asset cap. “The bank raised its ROE target from 15% to 17% to 18%. WFC’s Q3 profit rose to $5.59 billion, or $1.66 per share. The consensus on Wall Street was for earnings of $1.55 per share.

  Wells’s provision for credit losses dropped to $681 million from $1.07 billion last year. WFC’s investment banking fees jumped 25% to a record of $840 million.

  Bank of America (BAC) and Morgan Stanley (MS) will report earnings tomorrow.

  We’ll also get our first Buy List stock to report earnings tomorrow. Abbott Labs (ABT) is due to report its Q3 earnings before the market opens. I’m curious to hear what Abbott has to say because this is a good company, but the stock has lagged the market for more than five years.

  I was happy to see ABT get a boost last summer, but that eventually petered out by the spring. I suspect that a lot of ABT’s lagging is due to it being a healthcare stock. When your sector is out of favor on Wall Street, it’s hard to do well. Abbott has been outperforming healthcare recently.

  For Q3, ABT said it expects earnings between $1.28 and $1.32 per share. The consensus on Wall Street is for earnings of $1.30 per share, the exact midpoint. I think Abbott will beat that.

  For Q2, Abbott made $1.26 per share, which beat Wall Street’s consensus by one penny per share. Management had told us to expect earnings between $1.23 and $1.27 per share.

  Abbott’s Q2 sales were up 7.4% to $11.14 billion, which beat estimates of $11.07 billion. If we only look at organic sales, Q2 sales were up by 6.9%, and if we exclude Covid-related items, sales were up 7.5%.

  Abbott sees full-year profits ranging between $5.10 and $5.20 per share. That’s down from the company’s previous guidance of $5.15 to $5.25 per share.

  Last year, Abbott made $4.67 per share. That means that at the midpoint of this year’s guidance, Abbott expects double-digit earnings growth.

  60 Minutes and 1929

  This past weekend, 60 Minutes did a story on the stock market and its resemblance to 1929. These stories annoy me, and I think they’re a disservice to investors.

  The 60 Minutes story seems to be a backdoor marketing video for Andrew Ross Sorkin’s new book, 1929.

  The gist of the piece is that we’re in a stock market bubble and it’s very similar to the events of—you guessed it—1929.

  I hate that this even needs to be said, but the current market isn’t anything like the market of 1929. Just as a reminder, the stock market fell 89% from top to bottom. That’s what we’re talking about when we compared us to 1929.

  Many more Americans are invested in the stock market than was the case 100 years ago. There’s no gold standard today. No fixed commissions. There’s a global economy. We have deposit insurance. During the Great Depression, the unemployment rate reached 25%. Today it’s just over 4%.

  Bear markets happen. We even had a brief one earlier this year. That’s part of investing. That’s quite a different thing from 1929.

  What I find especially annoying is that these stories give the appearance of saying something when they’re not really saying anything. The commentators are careful not to predict anything. No one goes on record. Instead, they say they’re “concerned” about something ominous, but they’re lacking in details.

  Here’s a snippet from the broadcast:

  Andrew Ross Sorkin: The crazy part about this is from 1928 to September 1929, the stock market was up 90%.

  Lesley Stahl: When you say the stock market was way up, immediately I think of now. Are you scared? (We’re not up 90%. Six months ago, the market lost 12% in four days. – Eddy)

  ARS: I’m anxious. I’m anxious that we are at prices that may not feel sustainable and what I don’t know is we are either living through some kind of remarkable boom and part of that artificial intelligence and technology and all of that or everything is overpriced. (Then prices come down. It’s not a big deal. – Eddy)

  LS: Or we’re reliving…

  ARS: …1929.

  Oh, brother. Nice leading question there. I agree that things are pricey and I’ve said so, but how exactly are we reliving 1929? Notice how Sorkin says he’s anxious. So what? All investors should be anxious to some extent.

  Later Stahl Lesley tells us, “People who didn’t really have much money were lured by Wall Street bankers to invest using a newfangled concept to take on debt called credit.”

  I hate to break it to you, Lesley, but credit has been around for a long, long time, and so has margin buying.

  The story then takes an expected turn into crypto and lets us know that some meme coins coin may not be 100% above board.

  “LS: Do you think that we will have a crash, or not?

  ARS: The answer is, we will have a crash. I just can’t tell you when and I can’t tell you how deep. But I can assure you – unfortunately, I wish I wasn’t saying this – we will have a crash.”

  

  Let’s see if I have this right. I assure you that something will happen at some time, but I can’t say what, when or how bad it will be. This tells you nothing about being an investor.

  That’s all for now. The retail sales report is due out on Thursday, but it looks like we won’t get it thanks to the shutdown. The inflation report is out next Friday, the 24th, and that also looks to be in jeopardy. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

  – Eddy

• Morning News: October 14, 2025
  Eddy Elfenbein, October 14th, 2025 at 7:05 am

  Trump Bets on Argentina Again After First-Term Bailout Blew Up

  How China and the U.S. Are Racing to De-Escalate the Trade War

  China Escalates US Trade Fight With Curbs on Shipping

  From Ships to Spreads, There Are Growing Signs the Oil Surplus Has Arrived

  U.S. Starts Charging Chinese Ships to Dock at Its Ports

  Highest US Tariffs Since the 1930s Redraw the International Trade Map

  Trump Ramps Up Trade War as Tariffs on Lumber and Furniture Kick In

  The Great Debasement Debate Is Rippling Across Global Markets

  America Must Avoid a European Regulatory Fate

  Trump’s ‘Flood the Zone’ Strategy Also Involves a Lot of Mopping Up

  Major Media Outlets Rebuff New Pentagon Press Policy

  US Shutdown Threatens to Erode Quality of Important Inflation Data

  Why Silver Has Been Surging Even More Than Gold

  JPMorgan Traders, Bankers Beat Estimates as Dealmaking Picks Up

  Goldman Dealmakers Drive Bank to Record Third Quarter Revenue

  Wells Fargo Boosts Key Profitability Metric as Asset Cap Removed

  Citi Revenue Beats in Every Division as Compensation Costs Climb

  The Banker Behind the Trumps’ Quick Wall Street Wins

  JPMorgan Says US Needs Renewables to Meet Rising Energy Demand

  Renewable Energy Is Booming Despite Trump’s Efforts to Slow It

  US Lumber Giants Agree to Combine in $7.1 Billion Deal

  Cobalt Rally Risks Pushing Away Battery Makers, Top Miner Says

  GM Takes $1.6 Billion Charge on Trump-Induced Pullback From EVs

  Ford Cuts Production of Five Trucks, SUVs After Fire at Aluminum Supplier

  Boeing, Airbus Deliveries Face ‘Unprecedented’ Delay, Buyers Say

  The AI Future You Want Depends on These Questions

  China’s AI Dragons Must Survive ‘Involution’ to Conquer the World

  The Solution to Europe’s AI Problem Is Hiding in Plain Sight

  AI’s Copyright War Could Be Its Undoing. Only the US Can End It.

  NaturalCycles Mulls New Round Bigger Than Prior $55 Million

  Inside Advertising’s Most Grueling New Genre: ‘You Have to Have Zero Social Anxiety’

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• Morning News: October 13, 2025
  Eddy Elfenbein, October 13th, 2025 at 7:05 am

  Creative Destruction Theorists Win Nobel Prize for Economics

  Trump and Xi Trigger Another Standoff With World Economy at Risk

  Trump’s Fresh Tariff Assault Threatens China’s Fragile Economy

  Cars to Fighter Jets: China’s New Export Curbs May Level a Heavy Blow Worldwide

  Argentina’s Economy Chief Says US Willing to Keep Buying Pesos

  America Is Getting Used to Broken Government

  Furloughed Federal Workers Turn to Side Hustles to Survive Shutdown

  Troops May Miss First Paychecks Wednesday as Shutdown Drags On

  Stronger Growth, Weaker Hiring: Forecasters See a Split-Screen Economy

  A Zombie Economy Could Be America’s Future

  From Tricolor to Saks, Bonds Are Now Crashing at Breakneck Speed

  Silver Roars Higher as Short Squeeze Rocks the London Market

  This Market Is Nothing Like the Dot-Com Bubble

  The Rules of Investing Are Being Loosened. Could It Lead to the Next 1929?

  Brookfield Said Near $3 Billion Deal for Remaining Oaktree Stake

  Labor Unions Are Chipping Away at Worker Freedoms One Bill at a Time

  The EU Has To Get Real If Europe Is To Matter In AI

  Squeezing Builders Isn’t the Way to Lower Housing Costs

  The Former Banker Betting on Unprofitable Business of Flood Insurance

  US Power-Demand Boom Poses Hard Choices for Utilities

  Technip Energies CEO Says US LNG Projects Can Skirt Chinese Yards

  Citadel Boosts European Power Trading With Purchase of FlexPower

  GM’s Rare-Earth Gamble Pays Off as China Tightens Magnet Exports

  He Won the $2 Billion Powerball. Now He’s Buying Up Lots Burned in the L.A. Fires.

  JPMorgan to Invest $10 Billion in U.S. Companies Critical to National Security

  Factory Towns Revive as Defense Tech Makers Arrive

  Behind the Collapse of an Auto-Parts Giant: $2 Billion Hole and Mysterious CEO

  Trump Turns His Sights on Aluminum in Vaccines

  A Case for Vaping Freedom As the Path to Economic Revival

  Paramount Circling Warner Bros. Discovery After Rebuffed Approach

  What’s the Deal With All Those FanDuel Ads?

  Inside the World’s Most Powerful High School Cafeteria

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• Morning News: October 10, 2025
  Eddy Elfenbein, October 10th, 2025 at 7:03 am

  Why China Built 162 Square Miles of Solar Panels on the World’s Highest Plateau

  Germany’s Top Economist Charts a Path Out of Europe’s Crisis

  Bessent’s Big Gamble on Argentina Has a Narrow Road to Pay Off

  Big Investors Await Windfall From Trump’s Argentina Bailout

  After $12 Billion Bond Losses, Japanese Bank at Risk Again From US Firm’s Bankruptcy

  The Big Dollar Short Is Becoming a Pain Trade for Investors

  Did Wall Street Just Admit It’s a Casino After All?

  What’s the Difference Between the NYSE and Polymarket Anyway?

  Ray Dalio Warns of Soaring Debt and ‘Civil War’ Brewing in US

  Gold Boom Swells Indian Household Stock to Almost $3.8 Trillion

  Riding the Wild Wave of Crypto Coverage

  Crypto Investor Known as ‘Bitcoin Jesus’ Reaches Deal With Prosecutors

  Inside Hegseth’s Effort to Limit Press Access at the Pentagon

  Tariffs Are Way Up. Interest on Debt Tops $1 Trillion. And DOGE Didn’t Do Much.

  Shutdown Pain Ripples Through US Economy With No Deal in Sight

  Federal Government Recalls Workers to Produce Key Inflation Report

  Sorry Keynesians, Housing Has Nothing To Do With Economic Growth

  Americans Are Falling Behind on Their Car Payments

  Have You Hugged Your Job Today?

  Jack Dorsey’s Block Targets Card Network Fees in Latest Push

  America’s Manufacturing Resurgence Will Be Powered by These Robots

  China Targets Qualcomm, US Ships as Xi and Trump Seek Leverage

  Intel Got a Trump Bump. Now It Has to Capitalize on It.

  Tesla Self-Driving Technology Breaks Traffic Laws. Can the Feds Stop It?

  Tesla’s China Shipments Rise at Start of Busy Sales Season

  Tricolor’s Busted Money Machine Has Wall Street Rethinking Risks

  Can These Self-Flying Planes Transform the Skies?

  Delta Predicts Premium Seat Sales to Overtake Economy as Soon as 2026

  Pfizer’s Deal on Drug Prices Gets Closer to the Right Idea

  Lay’s Chips Are Getting a Makeover for the MAHA Era

  If an Energy Drink Drank an Energy Drink, You’d Get a Celsius

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