Author Archive

• Morning News: January 22, 2021
  Eddy Elfenbein, January 22nd, 2021 at 7:00 am

  Eurozone on Brink of Another Recession Amid Covid Wave

  Wall Street Hedges Against Possible Bumps in U.S. Vaccine Rollout

  Continuing Job Losses Put Spotlight on Economic Relief

  Biden Seeks Immediate Help for Millions as Big Stimulus at Risk

  Yellen Vote in U.S. Senate Committee to Test Support for Biden Economic Plan

  Fed to Taper Asset Purchases in 2022 or Later, Say Economists

  U.S. Is Losing the Battery Race Despite Having the Right Stuff

  The N.R.A. Wants to ‘Dump’ Its Regulators via Bankruptcy. Will It Succeed?

  China Cracks Down on Fake Divorces That Let People Buy More Properties

  Judge Refuses To Reinstate Parler After Amazon Shut It Down

  Instacart is Firing Every Employee Who Voted to Unionize

  Google Parent Alphabet to Shut Down Loon, Its Internet-Beaming Balloon Project

  Joshua Brown: “That’s Fascinating!” with Barry Ritholtz

  Howard Lindzon: The Stock Market and Crypto Market Are The Ultimate Platform and Game

  Michael Batnick: Can Growth Go Out Of Style?

  Ben Carlson: Markets That Are Definitely NOT In A Bubble & Animal Spirits: Micro Bubbles

  Be sure to follow me on Twitter.

• Trex and Miller Breakout to New High
  Eddy Elfenbein, January 21st, 2021 at 11:46 am

  The stock market is mostly unchanged this morning although the S&P 500 did make another new all-time intra-day high. The index got as high as 3,861.45.

  The earnings parade continues. Bank of America said that its Q4 earnings fell by 22%. On Wall Street, however, it’s all about expectations and B of A topped Wall Street’s forecast. The bank earned 59 cents per share last quarter but that beat Wall Street’s consensus by four cents per share.

  On our Buy List, several of our stocks are close to new 52-week highs but only Trex (TREX) and Miller Industries (MLR) have managed to punch through.

  This morning’s jobless claims report showed that 900,000 Americans filed for jobless claims. To have the same jobs-to-population ratio that we had before the pandemic, we would need about 10 million more jobs. The current stats roughly divide that in half. They show unemployment rising by 5 million and another 5 million people who have left the jobs market. (If you’re no longer looking for work, you’re not counted as unemployed.)

  Earlier this week, Janet Yellen, President Biden’s pick to lead the Treasury, made the case for fiscal stimulus:

  Forget about the amount being borrowed, Yellen, a former Federal Reserve chair, told members of the Senate Finance Committee. Focus instead on the interest rate being paid and the returns it will generate, an approach that argues the country’s future economic potential can support more borrowing today and makes the roughly $26.9 trillion in U.S. IOUs seem less formidable.

  “The interest burden of the debt as a share of (gross domestic product) is no higher now than it was before the financial crisis in 2008, in spite of the fact that our debt has escalated,” Yellen said. “To avoid doing what we need to do now to address the pandemic and the economic damage that it is causing would likely leave us in a worse place … than taking the steps that are necessary and doing that through deficit finance.”

  The Senate will vote on Yellen’s appointment tomorrow.

• Morning News: January 21, 2021
  Eddy Elfenbein, January 21st, 2021 at 7:06 am

  Saudi Arabia’s Aramco Omits Carbon Data for Up to Half Its Real Climate Toll

  Biden Announces Return to Global Climate Accord, New Curbs on U.S. Oil Industry

  Biden Revokes KXL Permit in Blow to Canada’s Oil Sector, Ottawa Disappointed

  Trump’s Last-Minute Climate Maneuvers Face a Slow Dead End

  Yellen’s Call to ‘Act Big’ Reflects Long Re-Think on Big Government Debt

  Inflation Rippling Through Markets Is Just What Fed Wants to See

  How the American Unemployment System Failed

  Microsoft Invests $2 Billion In GM’s Cruise In Bid To Lead Autonomous Driving Revolution

  Morgan Stanley Profit Shoots Higher, Fueled by Wall Street

  United Airlines Offers Grim Outlook but Seeks to Rebuild

  50 Companies to Watch in 2021

  Joshua Brown: The Dow Jones Under Donald Trump

  Howard Lindzon: When Secular Trends Reverse…and Economic Time Bombs

  Jeff Carter: Scorecards

  Michael Batnick: Animal Spirits: Micro Bubbles

  Be sure to follow me on Twitter.

• Dow’s Return by Day of the Week/Month
  Eddy Elfenbein, January 20th, 2021 at 2:58 pm

  Here’s the Dow’s average return by day of the week/month. You can tell I’ve been busy with my spreadsheets.

  There are a total of 156 different day-week combinations. (Friday the 13th isn’t so bad.) There was a brief trading session on Saturdays up to the 1950s.

  The Dow’s best day is Wednesday the 4th which barely beats out Wednesday the 1st. The worst day is Monday the 25th.

  Days	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday	Friday	Saturday
  1st	0.070%	0.098%	0.274%	0.053%	0.215%	0.160%
  2nd	0.085%	0.142%	0.096%	0.177%	0.248%	0.122%
  3rd	0.087%	0.010%	0.159%	-0.073%	0.243%	0.136%
  4th	-0.078%	0.036%	0.274%	-0.052%	0.074%	0.129%
  5th	0.092%	0.134%	0.033%	0.014%	0.060%	0.135%
  6th	-0.018%	0.216%	0.128%	0.096%	0.096%	0.051%
  7th	-0.051%	-0.145%	0.012%	-0.061%	-0.069%	0.100%
  8th	-0.146%	0.017%	0.053%	0.056%	0.016%	-0.226%
  9th	-0.146%	-0.176%	-0.064%	0.017%	-0.018%	0.115%
  10th	0.006%	-0.047%	-0.048%	0.064%	0.048%	0.238%
  11th	-0.018%	0.074%	-0.046%	0.064%	0.030%	-0.141%
  12th	0.002%	-0.119%	0.015%	-0.151%	0.003%	-0.439%
  13th	-0.035%	-0.021%	0.012%	0.012%	0.057%	0.082%
  14th	0.028%	0.049%	-0.091%	-0.004%	0.128%	0.142%
  15th	-0.103%	0.042%	0.145%	0.002%	0.073%	0.157%
  16th	-0.124%	0.253%	-0.013%	0.190%	0.066%	0.046%
  17th	-0.139%	0.175%	0.040%	0.157%	-0.004%	-0.047%
  18th	-0.254%	0.129%	-0.019%	0.055%	-0.087%	0.129%
  19th	-0.248%	-0.095%	-0.056%	-0.025%	-0.062%	0.048%
  20th	-0.125%	0.135%	-0.012%	-0.044%	0.039%	0.102%
  21st	-0.134%	-0.046%	0.066%	-0.024%	0.022%	-0.103%
  22nd	-0.119%	-0.022%	-0.079%	0.015%	0.021%	0.030%
  23rd	-0.161%	-0.112%	0.068%	-0.045%	0.052%	-0.015%
  24th	-0.118%	0.088%	0.119%	-0.151%	0.018%	0.110%
  25th	-0.318%	-0.010%	0.099%	-0.048%	0.011%	-0.080%
  26th	-0.158%	0.149%	0.115%	0.003%	0.132%	0.086%
  27th	-0.179%	-0.037%	0.106%	0.149%	-0.118%	0.147%
  28th	-0.130%	0.084%	-0.034%	0.091%	0.117%	-0.074%
  29th	-0.147%	0.011%	0.023%	0.085%	0.168%	0.218%
  30th	-0.054%	0.209%	0.089%	-0.048%	0.157%	0.189%
  31st	-0.018%	0.030%	0.043%	0.033%	0.068%	0.096%

  One small footnote. Saturday the 12th really isn’t that bad. It includes December 12, 1914 when the Dow switched to a new index. The market shut down at the advent of World War 1. The Dow folks then started a new index and back-dated it to 1914. As a result, the new index is not continuous with the previous index. In my data, it’s listed as a big drop even though it never really happened.

• Biden is Sworn In and Stocks Rally to New High
  Eddy Elfenbein, January 20th, 2021 at 2:12 pm

  Big day in Washington as Joe Biden was sworn in as the 46th president. As I always advise investors, don’t confuse your politics with the market. For its part, the S&P 500 rallied to a new all-time intra-day high today. The index got up to 3,854.57 today.

  There’s not much stock-specific news today but I’ll pass along one item about Abbott Labs:

  Abbott Laboratories’ rapid COVID-19 antigen test is highly likely to correctly detect if people have ever contracted the virus and could help with earlier isolation, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

  The test was less sensitive in detecting asymptomatic infection, but the CDC study found that the faster turnaround time can help limit transmission by more rapidly identifying infectious persons for isolation.

  

• Morning News: January 20, 2021
  Eddy Elfenbein, January 20th, 2021 at 7:05 am

  10 Challenges Biden Faces in Righting the Economy

  Biden’s First Year Could See Record Employment Growth. More Will Be Needed

  Pfizer-BioNTech Vaccine Found to Be Effective Against Covid Variant Discovered in the UK

  Google Sidelines Second Artificial Intelligence Researcher

  Parler Tries to Survive With Help From Russian Company

  Suriname Could Be Latest Big Oil Find as Industry Cuts Costs

  Casualty of Chocolate War Is Poor West African Farmers

  Cultured Fish May Go From Lab to U.S. Plates This Year

  Mercedes Joins Tesla, VW in Race to Sell Small Electric Cars

  Netflix Forecasts An End to Borrowing Binge, Shares Surge

  Jack Ma Emerges for First Time Since Ant, Alibaba Crackdown

  Joshua Brown: The ‘Burbs & Bullish with a Chance of Civil War

  Nick Maggiulli: 10 Investing Lessons from 2020

  Ben Carlson: So You Turned $300k Into $3 Million. Now What?

  Michael Batnick: Is David Bullying Goliath? & They’re On Fire

  Howard Lindzon: The Death Of Retail Is The Birth of Retail – Part 3…A Post Covid World… And More Gamestops?

  Be sure to follow me on Twitter.

• Yellen Encourages Congress to “Act Big”
  Eddy Elfenbein, January 19th, 2021 at 11:15 am

  The markets seem to be in a happy mood following the three-day weekend. The major indexes are up nicely. Once again, the Russell 2000 is leading the charge.

  We’re at the start of earnings season. Usually, the big banks go first. Earlier this morning, Goldman Sachs reported very strong earnings, but the shares are down in early trading.

  Our Buy List stocks will start reporting next week.

  At noon tomorrow, Joe Biden will be sworn in as our 46th president. (Washington looks like an armed camp.) Now everyone’s attention is on the big $1.9 trillion stimulus program. Janet Yellen, the nominee for Treasury Secretary, is currently testifying before the Senate Finance Committee.

  Janet Yellen, President-elect Joe Biden’s nominee for treasury secretary, urged lawmakers Tuesday to “act big” on economic relief for the coronavirus pandemic as she appeared before a Senate committee for her confirmation hearing.

  “I think there is a consensus now: Without further action, we risk a longer, more painful recession now — and long-term scarring of the economy later,” Yellen said in written testimony submitted to the Senate Finance Committee ahead of the hearing.

  On our Buy List, Cerner (CERN) got a doubled downgrade. B of A Securities lowered CERN to Underperform from Buy. The stock is currently down but only a little bit.

• Morning News: January 19, 2021
  Eddy Elfenbein, January 19th, 2021 at 7:04 am

  China’s 2020 GDP Means It Will Overtake U.S. As World’s No. 1 Economy Sooner Than Expected

  China Still Needs Australia to Power Its Economic Recovery

  Investors Flock Back Into Oil for Reflation Trade, Hedging

  The Trump Years: Tax Cuts and Trade Wars Overshadowed in the End By A Virus

  Yellen Faces Senate to Sell $1.9 Trillion Stimulus Package

  How Full Employment Became Washington’s Creed

  Business Makes the Case for a Post-Trump Reset

  Citrix Agrees to Buy Slack Competitor Wrike for $2.25 Billion

  BofA’s Wall Street Unit Falls Short of Rivals During Bumper Year

  BofA Clients With $561 Billion Say Bitcoin Is Most Crowded Trade

  Goldman Sachs Profit Surges Past Estimates on M&A, Trading Boost

  Why Medical Tourism Is Drawing Patients, Even in a Pandemic

  Joshua Brown: re: Trumpless Twitter

  Howard Lindzon: Momentum Monday – Is Small The New Big?

  Ben Carlson: Why Bubbles Are Good For Innovation

  Be sure to follow me on Twitter.

• Morning News: January 18, 2021
  Eddy Elfenbein, January 18th, 2021 at 6:59 am

  China’s Economy Picks Up Speed in Fourth Quarter, Ends 2020 in Solid Shape After COVID-19 Shock

  Trump Admin Slams China’s Huawei, Halting Shipments from Intel, Others

  German Inflation Will Turn Positive in January, Bundesbank Says

  For One British Industry, Brexit’s Red Tape Is Just Beginning

  Dollar Shorts Mount Before Yellen Outlines Market-Based Policy

  Biden Taps Gensler as SEC Chairman, FTC’s Chopra as CFPB Chief

  The Week in Business: Running for the Doors

  Behind a Secret Deal Between Google and Facebook

  Biden May Cancel Keystone XL Pipeline Permit As Soon As His First Day in Office

  Samsung Heir Jay Y. Lee Sentenced to 2 1/2 Years in Prison for Bribery and Embezzlement

  Michael Batnick: You Gotta Be Kidding Me

  Jeff Miller: Weighing the Week Ahead: What Will Biden Proposals Mean for Investors?

  Ben Carlson: How To Invest in a Bubble & Stock, Bond & Cash Returns: 1928-2020

  Howard Lindzon: Only On Twitter… & Howard Lindzon: Sunday Sentiment…Penny Stock Peddlers On Reddit and #WeekendsAreForCrypto on Stocktwits

  Joshua Brown: The Three Most Important Posts I’ve Ever Written & Talking SPACs and IPOs with Earn Your Leisure

  Be sure to follow me on Twitter.

• Retail Sales Fall Again
  Eddy Elfenbein, January 15th, 2021 at 11:22 am

  This morning, the Commerce Department said that retail sales fell 0.7% in December. Wall Street was expecting the number to be unchanged. This is the second monthly decline in a row for retail sales. This data is usually a good indicator of consumer spending.

  Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales tumbled 1.9% last month after a downwardly revised 1.1% decline in November. These so-called core retail sales correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of gross domestic product. They were previously estimated to have decreased by 0.5% in November.

  The report followed in the wake of news last week that the economy shed jobs in December for the first time in eight months. Further job losses are likely in January as new applications for unemployment benefits surged in the first week of the month. The data are in line with economists’ expectations for a sharp slowdown in economic growth in the fourth quarter.

  President-elect Biden has announced his plans for a $1.9 trillion stimulus.

  Here’s what Biden calls for:
  • Direct payments of $1,400 to most Americans, bringing the total relief to $2,000, including December’s $600 payments
  • Increasing the federal, per-week unemployment benefit to $400 and extending it through the end of September
  • Increasing the federal minimum wage to $15 per hour
  • Extending the eviction and foreclosure moratoriums until the end of September
  • $350 billion in state and local government aid
  • $170 billion for K-12 schools and institutions of higher education
  • $50 billion toward Covid-19 testing
  • $20 billion toward a national vaccine program in partnership with states, localities and tribes
  • Making the Child Tax Credit fully refundable for the year and increasing the credit to $3,000 per child ($3,600 for a child under age 6)

  Also this morning, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) reported Q4 earnings of $3.79 per share. That beat the street by $1.17 per share.

  U.S. consumer sentiment fell to 79.2 early this month from a final reading of 80.7 in December.