Author Archive

• Morning News: March 27, 2020
  Eddy Elfenbein, March 27th, 2020 at 7:02 am

  Migrant Farmworkers Whose Harvests Feed Europe Are Blocked at Borders

  Argentina Sacrifices Economy to Ward Off Virus, Winning Praise

  Russia Calls for New Enlarged OPEC Deal to Tackle Oil Demand Collapse

  Trump Didn’t Calm the Oil Markets. Now It May Be Too Late

  The Second Virus Shockwave Is Hitting China’s Factories Already

  U.S. Stock Futures Dip After Three-Day Rally as Virus Cases Grow

  The Coronavirus Economy: When Washington Takes Over Business

  Massive Unemployment Claims During Coronavirus Crisis Have California Officials Scrambling

  How Multi-Strategy Funds Are Faring as Coronavirus Slashes Returns

  I Became a Disciplined Investor Over 40 Years. The Virus Broke Me In 40 Days.

  Nick Maggiulli: The Greatest Investment Quotes of All Time

  Howard Lindzon: The Perfect Trade – Marcus Aurelius Joins Me On ‘Panic With Friends’ to Discuss ‘Crisis Chasing’

  Ben Carlson: Surviving Your Very First Market Crash

  Michael Batnick: The Best Books about Financial Panics & Why The Stock Market Rallies on Bad News

  Joshua Brown: It Doesn’t Always Have to Make Sense & The Bravery of Jon Boorman

  Be sure to follow me on Twitter.

• The Dow Is on Pace for Its Best Week Since 1932
  Eddy Elfenbein, March 26th, 2020 at 11:30 am

  The market’s rebound is continuing into today. This is the first rebound of note since the market started to break over a month ago. In fact, the Dow is on pace for its best week since 1932.

  This morning, FactSet (FDS) reported fiscal Q2 earnings of $2.55 per share. That beat Wall Street’s forecast of $2.49 per share. The stock is up about 5% in today’s trading. FDS also reiterated its full-year guidance range of $9.85 to $10.15 per share but also said that its results may differ significantly.

  This is good news but don’t think the coast is clear. The major averages are still well below their 50- and 200-DMAs. Expect to see a lot more volatility ahead.

• Morning News: March 26, 2020
  Eddy Elfenbein, March 26th, 2020 at 7:09 am

  Europe’s Leaders Ditch Austerity and Fight Pandemic With Cash

  The Gold Market Is Being Tested Like Never Before

  Unemployment Claims Expected To Shatter Records

  Senate Passes $2 Trillion Virus Rescue Plan; Sends Bill to House

  A $2 Trillion Lifeline Will Help, But More May Be Needed

  U.S. Corporate Crisis Bailouts May Prove Bonanza for Insider Trading, New Study Warns

  U.S. Senate Offers $58 Billion Aid to Airlines As They Struggle to Stay Airborne

  Coronavirus Shock Is Destroying Americans’ Retirement Dreams

  JPMorgan’s Equity Derivatives Haul Soars to $1.5 Billion

  Essential? Retailers Like Guitar Center and Michaels Think They Are

  Don’t Dash For Cash: Authorities Say There’s No Need To Empty The ATM

  Michael Batnick: What is Happening in the Stock Market? & What Do You Do Now?

  Ben Carlson: How Did We Ever Get to The Roaring Twenties? & Animal Spirits: The First Thing to Go in a Crisis

  Jeff Carter: Sledgehammers or Scalpels

  Joshua Brown: The Economic Stimulus Bill Explained & No Bottom Until the Virus Tops

  Be sure to follow me on Twitter.

• AFLAC Jumps 26% in One Day
  Eddy Elfenbein, March 25th, 2020 at 7:58 pm

  This was another remarkable day for the stock market. The S&P 500 gained 1.15% which means the market did something it had not done in over a month: it registered back to back gains. It’s refreshing that after Tuesday’s big gain, the market didn’t immediately give back all of its gains.

  Our Buy List gained 2.55%. It was led by AFLAC (AFL) which gained 26.2%. That’s astounding. Both Middleby (MIDD) and Ross Stores (ROST) gained over 13%. Ross had been upgraded by Goldman Sachs. They said that Ross has enough cash on hand to keep operations going.

  Tomorrow we’ll get the jobless claims report and it will be historically bad.

  

• Morning News: March 25, 2020
  Eddy Elfenbein, March 25th, 2020 at 7:06 am

  In World’s Most Vulnerable Countries, the Pandemic Rivals the 2008 Crisis

  ECB’s Lagarde Asked Euro Zone Ministers to Consider One-Off ‘Coronabonds’ Issue

  Germany Closes In on Historic Bailout to Counter Virus Blow

  China to Resume U.S. LPG Imports As Beijing Waives Trade-War Tariff

  White House, Senators Strike Deal on Massive Stimulus Package

  Trump’s Back-to-Work Push Pits Billionaires Against the Doctors

  Can We Put a Price Tag on a Life? The Shutdown Forces a New Look

  Treat With Caution: Rocketing Stocks Aren’t Cause for Comfort

  Coronavirus Decimates N.Y.C. Taxi Industry: ‘The Worst It’s Ever Been’

  YouTube Is Lowering Default Video Quality Worldwide for 30 Days in Response to Pandemic

  Target Withdraws Forecasts, Curbs Spending to Meet Virus-Related Demand

  Howard Lindzon: The Trends Everyone Now Talking About – Work From Home and Teaching Online

  Cullen Roche: What Do you Do When the Shit Hits the Fan?

  Joshua Brown: The Fastest Bear Market of All Time & “At last, we have a deal…In effect, this is a wartime level of investment into our nation.”

  Jeff Carter: Managing Through A Crisis

  Ben Carlson: How Does the Market Crash Impact Retirees?

  Be sure to follow me on Twitter.

• Best Day in 87 Years
  Eddy Elfenbein, March 24th, 2020 at 5:34 pm

  Amazing day on Wall Street.

  This was the single-best day for the Dow in 87 years.

  The Dow finished up 11.37%. That nosed out September 21, 1932 for fourth-best day ever.

  The Dow beat the S&P 500 by 2% today. That’s very unusual. Three Dow stocks were up more than 20% today (Boeing, Amex, Chevron).

  How about the S&P 500 Energy? It was up 16.31% today. That’s the entire sector!

  While today was the Dow’s best day since 1933, that 1933 day wasn’t really one day of trading. The exchanges had been shut down for a week by FDR for the Bank Holiday. Stock prices shot up after reopening.

  This was due to the Emergency Banking Act.

• Stocks Surge on Congressional Aid
  Eddy Elfenbein, March 24th, 2020 at 11:22 am

  The stock market is up strongly this morning. It seems that news from the Federal Reserve failed to get the market going, but news of fiscal stimulus is finally working.

  As I write this, the S&P 500 is up over 6.5%. I saw that over 140 stocks in the index are up more than 10% today.

  That’s good to see but bear market rallies love to convince folks that the coast is clear before hitting them again.

• Morning News: March 24, 2020
  Eddy Elfenbein, March 24th, 2020 at 7:15 am

  Boundless Fed QE Fuels 2% Equity Bounce, Calms Dollar

  Stocks Climb From Lowest Since 2016; Dollar Drops

  Dollar Rally Loses Steam After Fed Move Buoys Risk Appetite

  Dealbook: Lives Versus Livelihoods

  Pelosi’s $2.5 Trillion Virus Bill Delays Mortgage, Car Payments

  House Democrats Would Give Airlines, Contractors $40 Billion Bailout

  3 Newspapers Ask China to Reverse Decision to Expel American Journalists

  Start-Ups Jump the Gun on Home Kits for Coronavirus Testing

  Amazon Suspends Almost 4,000 Seller Accounts Over Price Gouging

  PG&E Will Plead Guilty to Involuntary Manslaughter in Camp Fire

  Nick Maggiulli: Buying During a Crisis

  Michael Batnick: The Essence of Risk Management

  Jeff Carter: Bailing Out Corporations

  Joshua Brown: Fastest 30% Sell-Off in History & Why Stocks and Bonds Fell Together Last Week

  Ben Carlson: How Are Diversified Portfolios Holding up During the Crash?

  Be sure to follow me on Twitter.

• The S&P 500 Drops Below 2,200
  Eddy Elfenbein, March 23rd, 2020 at 12:24 pm

  The Fed rolled out the big guns and it didn’t stop the damage. The S&P 500 was down almost 5% today at its low. From the intra-day high in February to today’s low, the S&P 500 has lost 35.4%.

  At 36% it becomes a double bear market. That’s two 20% losses on top of each other.

  

• QE Infinity Returns
  Eddy Elfenbein, March 23rd, 2020 at 10:46 am

  For the first time in its 228-year history, the NYSE is operating without its trading floor. All the trading today is electronic.

  This morning, the Federal Reserve pledged to purchase unlimited assets in an effort to support the market.

  The Federal Reserve said Monday it will launch a barrage of programs aimed at helping markets function more efficiently amid the coronavirus crisis.

  Among the initiatives is a commitment to continue its asset purchasing program “in the amounts needed to support smooth market functioning and effective transmission of monetary policy to broader financial conditions and the economy.”

  That represents a potentially new chapter in the Fed’s “money printing” as it commits to keep expanding its balance sheet as necessary, rather than a commitment to a set amount.

  The Fed also will be moving for the first time into corporate bonds, purchasing the investment-grade securities in primary and secondary markets and through exchange-traded funds. The move comes in a space that has seen considerable turmoil since the crisis has intensified and market liquidity has been sapped.

  The move initially seemed to help the markets, but stock prices have since fallen back into the red.

  Danaher (DHR) is up today after the FDA approved a quick-acting COVID-19 test. The current tests take several hours and have to be shipped off to a hospital, but Danaher’s takes 45 minutes and can be done right there.