Author Archive

• Morning News: December 6, 2019
  Eddy Elfenbein, December 6th, 2019 at 7:06 am

  The Prince Got His World-Beating IPO. Now the Hard Work Begins

  OPEC and Russia Agree to Cuts in Oil Production

  U.S. Objects to World Bank’s Lending Plans for China

  China to Waive Trade War Tariffs for Some U.S. Soy, Pork Purchases

  What to Expect From the November Jobs Report

  Returning General Motors Workers Seen Boosting U.S. November Payrolls

  Is Blockchain the New Ethical Gold Rush? Maybe.

  One of Wall Street’s Most Lucrative Businesses Is at Risk

  SoftBank to Have ‘Last Laugh’ on WeWork Deal, Bernstein Says

  United C.E.O. Munoz to Step Down, 5 Years After Leading Turnaround

  GM And LG Chem Plan $2.3 Billion Electric Battery Venture In Ohio

  BlackRock Just Fired a Potential Successor to CEO Larry Fink. Here’s Why.

  Joshua Brown: Fortune’s 2020 Roundtable

  Michael Batnick: Animal Spirits: It Is What It Is

  Ben Carlson: Bull Markets Last Much Longer Than You Think & There’s Always a Bear Market Somewhere

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• Morning News: December 5, 2019
  Eddy Elfenbein, December 5th, 2019 at 7:29 am

  Japan Plans to Spend $120 Billion to Stimulate Slowing Economy

  China in Close Contact With U.S. on Trade, Urges Tariffs Cut

  China’s Genetic Research on Ethnic Minorities Sets Off Science Backlash

  Could Tax Increases Speed Up the Economy? Democrats Say Yes

  U.S. Labor Market Is Helping Trump and Fed Be More Patient

  Wall Street’s High-Stake Bets on Calm Less Risky Than They Seem

  Gazing Into the Recession Crystal Ball

  How Google’s Founders Slowly Stepped Away From Their Company

  Huawei Sues the F.C.C., Ramping Up Fight With Critics and Foes

  How a Preacher’s Grandson From Rural Georgia Grew Up to Lead Cisco

  Delivery Only: The Rise Of Restaurants With No Diners As Apps Take Orders

  Cullen Roche: Do Rich People Debunk MMT?

  Jeff Carter: The Pitch

  Michael Batnick: The Portfolio Gap

  Howard Lindzon: My Poop Prayers Have Been Answered…Now Pray For Google’s Sundar Pichai

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• Stryker Raises Dividend 11%
  Eddy Elfenbein, December 4th, 2019 at 3:19 pm

  Here’s the press release:

  Stryker (SYK) announced that its Board of Directors has declared a quarterly dividend of $0.575 per share payable on January 31, 2020 to shareholders of record at the close of business on December 31, 2019, representing an increase of approximately 11% versus the prior year and the previous quarter.

  “We continue to deliver strong financial results, and consistent with our stated capital allocation philosophy, are raising our dividend 11%,” said Kevin Lobo, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer.

  The old dividend was 52 cents per share. Based on the new dividend, SYK now yields 1.1%.

• Morning News: December 4, 2019
  Eddy Elfenbein, December 4th, 2019 at 7:19 am

  U.S., China Move Closer to Trade Deal Despite Harsh Rhetoric

  Trump Volatility in Markets Is Back

  Fighting Climate Change Comes With $2.5 Trillion Price Tag

  Google Co-Founders Step Aside as Pichai Takes Helm of Parent Alphabet

  Amazon Air Provider Hit With ‘No Confidence’ Vote as Holiday Shipping Ramps Up

  Trump Loses Appeal on Deutsche Bank Subpoenas

  Ray Dalio Is More Famous Than Ever and Delivering Subpar Returns

  Why Cleveland-Cliffs Buying AK Steel Will Hurt the Steel Industry

  JP Morgan Expects Bigger OPEC Production Cuts and No More ‘Free Passes’ for U.S. Shale Drillers

  How Huawei Lost the Heart of the Chinese Public

  An Unusually Cold and Wet Potato Harvest Season May Lead to a French Fry Shortage in the US

  Nick Maggiulli: How to Spend Money

  Roger Nusbaum: Quantifying Optionality?

  Michael Batnick: There’s Always a Bear Market Somewhere

  Joshua Brown: The 60/40 Portfolio Wins Again

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• AFLAC Drops After Investors Presentation
  Eddy Elfenbein, December 3rd, 2019 at 12:25 pm

  The market is down again today thanks to trade tensions with China. Yesterday, the S&P 500 had its worst day in nearly two months. In fact, the loss was twice as much as the second-worst day. Today’s drop could be even larger.

  Yesterday’s ISM Manufacturing report was not terribly good. The number came in at 48.1 which was below expectations. Any reading below 50 signals a contraction, so that means that the factory sector of the economy is no longer growing.

  Shares of AFLAC (AFL) fell yesterday and today. The company held an investor presentation yesterday. The duck gave its outlook for 2020. AFLAC said it sees earnings of $4.39 to $4.59 if the yen averages 105 for the year. But if the yen averages 110, then AFLAC sees earnings of $4.30 to $4.50. If the yen trades at 115, then AFLAC sees earnings of $4.23 to $4.43 per share.

  In simple terms, AFLAC basically sees flat earnings for next year. That’s really about their poor performance but a tougher environment.

• Morning News: December 3, 2019
  Eddy Elfenbein, December 3rd, 2019 at 7:23 am

  China’s Schoolchildren Are Now the Smartest in the World

  As Climate Warnings Grow Dire, Energy Companies Face A ‘New Frontier Of Threats’

  Trump Sees No Deadline for China Deal, Prefers to Wait For 2020 Election

  Here’s What Happens to Markets If U.S. Tariffs on China Kick in Dec. 15

  French Wine Could Face 100% Tariffs as Trump Confronts France Over Tech Taxes

  Trump Says U.S. Will Impose Metal Tariffs on Brazil and Argentina

  White House Considered Kicking Huawei Out of U.S. Banking System

  Watch 4 Decades of Inequality Drive American Cities Apart

  Reduce Stock Market Holdings With The Dow, S&P And Nasdaq In ‘Inflating Parabolic Bubble’

  ‘Flight Shaming’ Revives the Sleeper Train

  PG&E Had Systemic Problems With Power Line Maintenance, California Probe Finds

  If You Bought a Smart TV on Black Friday, the FBI has a Warning for You

  Joshua Brown: The Big Thing Investors Have Trouble Accepting

  Michael Batnick: My Decade

  Ben Carlson: Talk Your Book: Elimination Alpha – How to XOUT Your Portfolio Losers

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• Hormel Raises Dividend for 54th Year in a Row
  Eddy Elfenbein, December 2nd, 2019 at 1:53 pm

  I hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving. With the holidays, I wasn’t able to mention the recent earnings report from Hormel Foods (HRL). Last Tuesday, Hormel reported fiscal Q4 earnings of 47 cents per share. That was one penny better than estimates. For the entire fiscal year, Hormel made $1.80 per share.

  For next year, Hormel sees sales ranging between $9.5 billion and $10 billion, and EPS between $1.69 and $1.83. Wall Street had been expecting $1.76 per share.

  Hormel also raised its annual dividend from 84 cents to 93 cents per share. This is the 54th year in a row that Hormel has increased its dividend.

  “Refrigerated Foods has been a strong earnings contributor all year, and this quarter was no different. I am proud of how our value-added businesses helped offset another steep decline in commodity profits,” Snee said. “Grocery Products and Jennie-O Turkey Store posted modest earnings growth while the International results were below our expectations as the team continues to manage through challenges due to African swine fever and global trade uncertainty.”

  “We grew organic volume and sales in three of our four segments this quarter,” Snee said. “Our SPAM® family of products and Herdez® authentic salsas and sauces were notable contributors within Grocery Products. Refrigerated Foods delivered strong value-added sales growth with excellent results posted by brands such as Hormel® Bacon 1TM, Hormel® Fire BraisedTM, Hormel® Black Label® and Columbus® . Jennie-O Turkey Store delivered top-line growth led by a double-digit increase in whole bird sales. We made nice gains in lean ground turkey distribution, but we have much more work to do.”

  The shares got a nice bump on Tuesday and have been holding onto those gains since then. Since October 28, HRL is up 11%.

  

• Morning News: December 2, 2019
  Eddy Elfenbein, December 2nd, 2019 at 6:49 am

  Saudis Push for Longer-Lasting OPEC Cuts as Aramco IPO Approaches

  Saudi Arabia Embraces Western Sports to Rehabilitate Global Image

  China Spares Trade in First Retaliation to U.S.’s Hong Kong Law

  Trump’s Trade Deal Steals a Page From Democrats’ Playbook

  Trump’s Trade ‘Bad Cop’ Thinks He Has Found a Winning Formula

  U.S. CEOs’ Jet Perks Add Millions to Corporate Tax Bills

  New Nissan CEO Rules Out Closer Capital Ties With Renault

  U.S. Digs Deeper Into Deutsche Role in Danske Money Laundering Scandal

  Why Silicon Valley Investors Are Bonkers For European Startups

  The Billionaire Hedge Fund Manager With Quantum

  Corporate South Africa Loses Faith in National Airline

  Joshua Brown: Listing the Five Greatest Investors Ever

  Roger Nusbaum: Retirement Goldilocks & Performance Doesn’t Matter, Can That Be Right?

  Michael Batnick: Obviously, It’s Not Obvious

  Ben Carlson: Is Daycare the Next Student Loan Crisis? & Where Have All The Stock Market Returns Come From This Decade?

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• Morning News: November 29, 2019
  Eddy Elfenbein, November 29th, 2019 at 7:05 am

  Stocks Shy From Breaking New Highs as Trade Mood Darkens

  It’s Getting More Expensive to Eat, and Economists Are Worried

  The World Doesn’t Have Enough Pigs to Fill China’s Pork Deficit

  Venice’s Fraught Future Caught Between Tourist Crowds and Rising Tides

  Brazil, China, UAE Firms in Second Round of Bids for Petrobras Refineries

  China Financial Warning Signs Are Flashing Almost Everywhere

  China Condemns U.S. Over Hong Kong. That Won’t Stop Trade Talks.

  Warren Wealth Tax Has Wide Support, Except Among One Group

  Meet the Man Loosening Bank Regulation, One Detail at a Time

  Big Four Auditors Face Investor Calls for Tougher Climate Scrutiny

  Morgan Stanley Ousts FX Traders Over Hidden $100 Million Loss

  How Apple, Amazon, and Google Are Taking Financial Services by Storm

  The Science Of IBM’s Holiday Retail Forecast—And Why Companies Count On It

  Panasonic to Sell Semiconductor Unit to Taiwan’s Nuvoton Technology

  Tesla’s Cybertruck: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

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• Morning News: November 28, 2019
  Eddy Elfenbein, November 28th, 2019 at 7:21 am

  After $13 Billion Levy Ruling, Future of India’s Tattered Telecom Sector Hinges on Government Aid

  Facing U.S. Sanctions, Venezuela Offers Suppliers Payment in Chinese Yuan

  These Are Europe’s Best and Worst Countries for Financial Well-Being

  Bold Bets That Gold Could Triple to $4,000 Trade in New York

  With Big Tech in Their Path, Start-Ups Turn to Business Markets

  Top U.S. Retailers Absorb Tariff Pressure Ahead of Holiday Shopping Season

  Modern Black Friday Work Force: Postal Clerk, Influencer, Robot

  Why U.S. Power Forecasters Don’t Like Thanksgiving

  Amazon’s Cloud Unit Readies More Powerful Data Center Chip

  Panasonic to Sell Its Chip Unit to Taiwan’s Nuvoton for $250 Million

  ‘Parasite’ Has Shocked the Box Office, Helped by an Upstart Studio

  Joshua Brown: The Two Biggest Changes that Defined the Decade for Hedge Funds

  Michael Batnick: Wait, What?

  Ben Carlson: Animal Spirits: The Nastiest, Hardest Problem in Finance

  Jeff Carter: Happy Thanksgiving

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