Morning News: April 17, 2023
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on April 17th, 2023 at 7:06 am

Inflation Tests a Global Economy That Has Weathered Covid-19, Ukraine War

Determined to Flee China, Thousands Take a Long, Dangerous Route to the Southern U.S. Border

How Immigrants Are Saving the Economy

ECB Told Not to Take Banks’ Word for it When Assessing Risk

First Republic Worked Hard to Woo Rich Clients. It Was the Bank’s Undoing

Morgan Stanley Strategist Sees US Stock Rally at Risk

Drug and Game Makers Lead M&A’s Latest $20 Billion Bounce

Tax Day Cash Will Indicate Just How Close the US Is to Default

Let’s Be Clear About What ‘Budget Deficits’ Are: They’re an Effect of Excess Tax Revenue

Long-Shot Candidate Emerges as One to Watch for Next Morgan Stanley CEO

Wall Street Tells New High School Graduates to Pick Tech Career Over Finance

How the US is Subsidizing High-Risk Homebuyers — at the Cost of Those with Good Credit

Merck to Buy Prometheus Biosciences for About $11 Billion

Google Devising Radical Search Changes to Beat Back A.I. Rivals

How AI Is Building the Next Blockbuster Videogames

ChatGPT and Advanced AI Face New Regulatory Push in Europe

Who Owns a Song Created by A.I.?

The End of Faking It in Silicon Valley

GM Ditches Apple CarPlay on EVs as Fight for Your Car’s Screen Intensifies

The Defamation Trial of the Century Is Delayed

Are Crumbl Cookies the Best or the Worst? It Doesn’t Matter

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Morning News: April 14, 2023
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on April 14th, 2023 at 7:04 am

Saudi-Led Oil Cuts Risk Fueling Inflation and Harming Global Economy, IEA Says

Biden’s Plan to Phase Out Gas Cars Isn’t Crazy at All

China’s Car Buyers Have Fallen Out of Love With Foreign Brands

China Lays Out Three-Point Plan at Global Debt Relief Talks

U.S. Buyback Tax Could Hit More Foreign Firms Than First Expected

Unemployment Is Low. Inflation Is Falling. But What Comes Next?

As Bond Market Turbulence Eases, Companies Borrow Again

Earnings Season Arrives With Recession Fears Front and Center

Investors Put $538 Billion Into Cash Funds Over Eight Weeks, Bank of America Says

With the Odds on Their Side, They Still Couldn’t Beat the Market

MUFG Clients Lost $700 Million in Credit Suisse AT1 Wipeout

Insider Loans Surged Ahead of Turmoil at US Regional Banks

JPMorgan Deposits Unexpectedly Rise as Firm Raises NII Outlook

BlackRock Assets Exceed $9 Trillion in Wake of Bank Failures

Wells Fargo Net Interest Income Beats Estimates on Fed Hikes

How Severe Is the Housing Shortage? It Depends on How You Define ‘Shortage’

Tech Bellwether Infosys Warns of Trouble in Key Finance Sectors

Company Plans to Ditch Human Workers in Favor of ChatGPT-Style AI

Yes, People Will Pay $27,500 for an Old ‘Rocky’ Tape. Here’s Why.

Bud Light Faces Boycott Calls, but Punishing Brands Is Harder Than It Looks

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Morning News: April 13, 2023
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on April 13th, 2023 at 7:03 am

US-Saudi Oil Pact Breaking Down as Russia Grabs Upper Hand

It Cost $22 Billion to Rescue Two Failed Banks. Now the Question Is Who Will Pay

Shorter-Term Bonds Gain After Data Showing Cooler Inflation

Credit Investors See Defaults Rising, 84% Chance of US Recession

Fed Leans Toward Another Hike, Defying Staff’s Recession Outlook

Crosscurrents Hide a Rapidly Cooling Labor Market

Dour Earnings Loom Over Wall St. as a Slowing Economy Bites

How Janelle Jones’s Story About Black Women and the Economy Caught On

A Visa Backlog Abroad Is Taking a Toll Inside the U.S., Too

When Your Boss Is an App

In This Worker vs. Bot Battle, Humans Are Winning by a Mile

Landmark Trial Against Fox News Could Affect the Future of Libel Law

Amazon CEO Andy Jassy Says In Shareholder Letter He’s Confident He Can Get Costs Under Control

Apple Triples India iPhone Output to $7 Billion in China Shift

TikTok Parent ByteDance Battles Meta for Virtual-Reality App Developers

Twitter Inc. Changes Its Name to X Corp. and Moves to Nevada

EY Breakup Plan Doomed by Miscalculations and Powerful Opponents

Manhattan Rents Reach Record High With Busy Season Yet to Come

The Next EV Push Is an Overhaul of the Iconic American School Bus

Cities Sue Hyundai, Kia After Wave of Car Thefts

‘Harry Potter’ to Become a TV Series on Warner Bros. Discovery’s Max

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Morning News: April 12, 2023
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on April 12th, 2023 at 7:04 am

Germany’s Niche Companies Are a Model for Life After Globalization

I.M.F. Lowers Growth Outlook Amid Financial System Tremors

Yellen to Press for Additional Reforms at World Bank this Year

Inflation Report to Show Whether Price Pressures Eased Again in March

Fed Official: ‘We Need to Be Cautious’ on Raising Rates After Bank Failures

The FDIC’s ‘Special’ Fee to Make Banks Pay for SVB Cleanup

Top US Banks to Reveal Biggest Deposit Drop in a Decade

Private Equity’s Latest Money-Making Trade: Buying Its Own Debt

Big Banks That Shored Up First Republic Pushed to Boost Reserves

Bitcoin Rally Continues, Gaining More Than 80% This Year

Brookfield Infrastructure to Buy Triton in $4.7 Billion Deal

IRS Vets Reveal What’s Broken at America’s Most Hated Agency

An Online Meme Group Is at the Center of Uproar Over Leaked Military Secrets

Why China Could Dominate the Next Big Advance in Batteries

Biden’s EPA Wants Electric Vehicles to Make Up Two-Thirds of New Car Sales in U.S. by 2032

California Economy Is on Edge After Tech Layoffs and Studio Cutbacks

Homebuyer Mortgage Demand Jumps After Interest Rates Drop to Two-Month Low

The Air Travel System May Be Flying Toward Disaster

Ernst & Young Halts Breakup Plan After Revolt by U.S. Leaders

Your Gen Z Co-Worker Is Hustling More Than You Think

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CWS Market Review – April 11, 2023
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on April 11th, 2023 at 6:31 pm

(This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

What to Expect from Tomorrow’s CPI Report

The stock market has been holding up pretty well over the past few days. Despite a small drop on Tuesday, the S&P 500 is still close to a two-month high. The longer-term rally that started six months ago appears to be intact. The stock market keeps making higher highs and higher lows. That’s good to see.

The next big test for the market will come tomorrow when the government releases the CPI report for March. The good news is that inflation has cooled off over the last several months. The bad news is that it still has a way to go to reach the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%.

The Fed has declared total war against inflation, and it doesn’t care how much damage to the housing sector it needs to do to guarantee victory. So far, the results have been unimpressive.

Last June, the 12-month inflation rate reached 9.1%. In February, the 12-month rate rate reached 6.0% That’s still too high. For March, the 12-month rate is expected to fall to 5.2%. I’m afraid that may be overly optimistic. Either way, I don’t see the Fed pulling back on its rate hikes just yet.

Economists like to focus on the “core rate” of inflation because that strips out food and energy prices. The 12-month core rate is expected to be 5.6% which is an increase of 0.1% over the 12-month rate for February. The major change to inflation recently is that home prices have been falling, and that will probably be reflected in tomorrow’s report.

The Fed’s gameplan for the economy is important for investors because Wall Street has been expecting the Fed to pause its rate hikes sometime soon. That belief has spurred a big rally in growth stocks since the start of this year.

Since January 5, the S&P 500 Growth ETF (black line) is up 12.11% while the S&P 500 Value Index (blue line) is up only 4.48%. It’s as if Wall Street expects the Fed to bring back the furious low-quality rally that dominated Wall Street in 2020 and 2021. Speaking of which, bitcoin broke $30,000 today. The cryptocurrency is up more than 80% this year.

There’s a growing gap between what the Fed is saying and what Wall Street expects. Fed officials are talking tough, but Wall Street only sees a worsening economy and trouble with the banks.

The futures market now strongly favors another 0.25% rate hike at the next Fed meeting in three weeks. After that, the data starts to get a little noisy. Traders expect a 0.25% hike in May, and they then expect it to be taken away in July. Traders expect two more cuts later this year, in November and again in December. This reflects Wall Street’s fear that the economy is slowing down. For next year, traders see the Fed cutting rate by 125 basis points.

On top of inflation, earnings season kicks off this week. On Friday, several major banks such as Wells Fargo, Citigroup and JPMorgan are due to report earnings. I’ll be curious to hear if the banks have been impacted by the recent mess in the banking sector. I suspect it happened too late in Q1 to have a major impact. In fact, the big banks probably benefitted from customers leaving.

For the market as a whole, Q1 earnings are expected to be 6.8% lower than last year’s Q1. Abbott Labs will be our first Buy List stock to report earnings, one week from tomorrow.

A Closer Look at Last Week’s Jobs Report

Last Friday, the government reported that the U.S. economy created a net gain of 236,000 new jobs during March. This was unusual because it nearly matched Wall Street’s forecast for a gain of 238,000. The economy added 326,000 jobs during February.

The unemployment rate ticked down 0.1% to 3.5% which is still near a multi-decade low. The unemployment rate for African Americans fell 0.7% to 5% which is the lowest since the government started tracking the data 61 years ago. The jobs-to-population ratio for African Americans last month was higher than it was for white Americans. I should note that that’s not a precise comparison since the white community tends to be older.

The problem spot continues to be wages. Last month, average hourly earnings rose by 0.3%. Over the last year, earnings are up 4.2%. That’s the lowest 12-month growth rate in nearly two years.

With previous economies, we’ve talked about jobless recoveries. This time, it seems like we have growthless hiring. That may be explained by the fact that earnings have trailed inflation.

I’ll be honest – it was a pretty good report, but it doesn’t alter my view that the broader economy is slowing down. This was the lowest monthly gain for new jobs since December 2020. Since the stock market was closed for Good Friday, we couldn’t see the market’s reaction until Monday when the S&P 500 moved a bit higher.

Here are some details from the report:

Leisure and hospitality led sectors with growth of 72,000 jobs, below the 95,000 pace of the past six months. Government (47,000), professional and business services (39,000) and health care (34,000) also posted solid increases. Retail saw a loss of 15,000 positions.

While the February report was revised up from its initially reported 311,000, January’s number moved lower to 472,000, a reduction of 32,000 from the last estimate.

An alternative measure of unemployment that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons edged lower to 6.7%. The household survey, which is used to calculate the unemployment rate, was much stronger than the establishment survey, showing growth of 577,000 jobs.

Also last week, the Labor Department said that job openings fell to 9.9 million. That was the lowest number in nearly two years. There used to be 1.9 jobs for every unemployed person. That has fallen to 1.7 jobs.

Are Stocks Really Too Expensive?

The Wall Street Journal recently ran a story titled, “Stocks Haven’t Looked This Unattractive Since 2007.” These stories always get my attention. The financial media’s track record isn’t merely bad – it can often be a perfectly negative indicator.

This isn’t new. The New York Times famously said that stocks looked good just before the Panic of 1893. Both political parties get into the act. Right at the 2009 low, the WSJ told us, “Obama’s Radicalism Is Killing the Dow.” Paul Krugman said much the same after President Trump was elected.

But I wanted to look at the WSJ’s case this time. The argument is that the stock market’s equity risk premium is at 1.59% which is very low.

The equity risk premium is the yield difference between the 10-year Treasury and the stock market’s earnings yield (that’s the inverse of the P/E Ratio). The argument is that stock investors are not being paid very much to shoulder the risk of owning stocks. Typically, stocks carry earnings yields are that 3% to 4% more than the 10-year Treasury.

But this analysis misses a key point. This only looks at the relative value of stocks versus bonds, not the value of stocks in general. In fact, it could mean that bonds are underpriced. The equity risk premium could return to normal if bonds rallied. The Fed hiking rates over the last year has had a big impact on Treasury yields.

With the Fed moving against inflation as it has, that’s distorted the overall market. Bond yields and mortgage rates would never be this high without the Fed’s intervention. Stocks aren’t expensive right now. Instead, the yield curve has been squeezed to the brink and it will redound on the economy.

Stock Focus: Stryker

This week, I’ve chosen one of our Buy List stocks to focus on which is Stryker (SYK). This is one of my favorite stocks and it’s been a member of the Buy List for a long time. Stryker is one of the world’s leading orthopedic companies.

We first added Stryker to our Buy List on December 31, 2007. This is its 16th year on our Buy List.

As it turns out, we added Stryker at a terrible time. The stock rallied well during 2007. Our initial price was $74.72 per share which I thought was a good price. It wasn’t. By March of 2009, SYK was going for $30 per share. Ugh!

But we held on. We didn’t make a profit on Stryker until the middle of 2013. We continued to hold on. From the beginning of 2013 until August of 2019, Stryker gained 340% for us while the S&P 500 gained 133%.

The stock hit another rough patch for us last year. With its Q1 earnings report last April, Stryker said it expected full-year earnings to come in at the low end of its range which was $9.60 to $10 per share. In July, Stryker lowered its range to $9.30 to $9.50 per share. In October, it was lowered again to $9.15 to $9.25 per share. In two months, shares of SYK lost 30%.

But we held on. As it turned out, Stryker made $9.34 per share last year. The company said it expects earnings this year between $9.85 and $10.15 per share. Not only has Stryker made back everything it lost, but the stock hit a new all-time high today of $292.20 per share.

We’re still holding on.

That’s all for now. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

– Eddy

P.S. If you want more info on our ETF, you can check out the ETF’s website.

Morning News: April 11, 2023
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on April 11th, 2023 at 7:01 am

New Bank of Japan Chief Says He Will Maintain Easy Money

Buffett Ramps Up Japan Stock Bets, Weighs Buying Even More

Government Posing Greater Risk to Corporate Profits, Chamber Study Finds

Tumbling Money Supply Alarms Economists Who Foresaw Inflation

What Next for Banks?

Short Sellers Play Heroes and Villains in the U.S. Bank Crisis

Why U.S. Mortgage Lenders Lost Money on Home Loans for the First Time on Record

Bitcoin Breaks Above $30,000 as Investors Eye End of Rate Rises

Wall Street Is Turning Water into Wealth, Leaving Californians Out to Dry

Automakers Face Test in Reaching U.S. Target for Electric Vehicles

Exxon Deal Hunt Signals Possible Shale M&A Wave

Next Wave of Remote Work Is About Outsourcing Jobs Overseas

In China, Young People Ditch Prestige Jobs for Manual Labor

What Went Wrong at the Confederation of British Industry?

Tupperware Stock Plunges After Warning It Could Go Out of Business

China’s Rich Gorge on Singapore’s Luxuries. But Few Will Invest

Followers Describe Allure of Chinese Businessman Charged With $1 Billion Fraud

A Judge Rules that Elizabeth Holmes Cannot Remain Free During Appeal

The Superyachts of Billionaires Are Starting to Look a Lot Like Theft

Mickey Bars, Turkey Legs and the Obsession With Disney Food

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Morning News: April 10, 2023
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on April 10th, 2023 at 7:04 am

Food Prices Are New Inflation Threat for Governments and Central Banks

Climate Change and Poverty Pose Challenge to World Bank

What Commercial Real Estate Stress Means for Banks and Bond Funds

Bond Market Is Overplaying the Risk of a Deep Recession

The Credit Crunch the Fed Fears May Already Be Taking Shape

There’s No Such Thing As An ‘Interest Rate’

U.S. Stocks Poised to Rise

Investors View Corporate Earnings Season as Next Test for Stocks

Warren, Ocasio-Cortez Write Letters to Major SVB Depositors

FTX Failure Rooted in ‘Hubris,’ ‘Greed,’ Debtors Report Says

The Real-World Costs of the Digital Race for Bitcoin

A.I. Is Coming for Lawyers, Again

Apple’s 40% Plunge in PC Shipments Is Steepest Among Major Computer Makers

Musk Takes Another China Gamble With Grid Batteries

America Is Back in the Factory Business

Construction Industry Has Work, Needs More Workers

$388 in Sushi. Just a $20 Tip: The Brutal Math of Uber Eats and DoorDash

As Tech Jobs Disappear, Silicon Valley Veterans Reset Their Careers

Abortion Ruling Could Undermine the F.D.A.’s Drug-Approval Authority

The $76 Billion Diet Industry Asks: What to Do About Ozempic?

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Morning News: April 7, 2023
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on April 7th, 2023 at 7:03 am

I.R.S. Unveils $80 Billion Plan to Overhaul Tax Collection

The Problem With the IRS Vow to Avoid Stepping Up Audits of Earners Under $400,000

Latest Fed Increase Came Down to the Wire. ‘That Was a Rough Weekend.’

U.S. Economy May Be Heading to a Place That Must Not Be Named

Wages May Not Be Inflation’s Cause, but They’re the Focus of the Cure

Jamie Dimon Says Banking Crisis Has Increased the Odds of a Recession

Declines in Loan Values Are Widespread Among Banks

Schwab Reveals $53 Billion in New Client Assets in March, Seeking to Calm Investors

Cambridge, England Tries to Compete With Cambridge, Massachusetts

Samsung Forecasts Worst Profit in Over a Decade as Tech Slump Hits Memory Chips

Concerns Grow as Tighter Lending Threatens Commercial Real Estate

Buying or Selling a Home? Welcome to the Year of Disappointment

Hoping to Draw Moviegoers and Filmmakers, Amazon Heads to Theaters

How Elon Musk Is Changing the Twitter Experience

Tesla Cuts Prices of All Models for the Second Time This Year

Toyota to Launch 10 New Battery EV Models by 2026

What Happened When Uber’s CEO Started Driving for Uber

These Tech Workers Say They Were Hired to Do Nothing

Microsoft to Pay $3 Million Over Russia Sanctions, Export Controls Violations

If It’s Advertised to You Online, You Probably Shouldn’t Buy It. Here’s Why

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Morning News: April 6, 2023
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on April 6th, 2023 at 7:05 am

Europe Plots a Reset on China

IMF Says U.S-China Tensions Could Cost the World About 2% of Its Output

With Russia’s Exit, Norway Becomes Europe’s Energy Champion

Musk Puts $4 Trillion Price Tag on Sticking By Fossil Fuels

In Ohio, Electric Cars Are Starting to Reshape Jobs and Companies

US Profits Set for Pandemic-Sized Drop, Goldman Strategists Say

Deposit Outflows Shine Light on Fed Program That Pays Money-Market Funds

This Bank Proposal Will Damage Our Economy and Make Voters Even More Resentful

Investors Face a Conundrum Over the Jobs Market

Bank Failures. High Inflation. Rising Rates. Is the Resilient Jobs Market About to Crack?

Google and Amazon Struggle to Lay Off Workers in Europe

Do Older Workers Work Harder? Some Bosses Think So

Chinese Officials Flock to Twitter to Defend TikTok

Google CEO Sundar Pichai Says Search to Feature Chat AI

The Business Genius in ‘Air’ Isn’t Michael Jordan

The 2023 Forbes Billionaire Ranking: Crypto Down, Sports Up

As National Parks Visits Surge, Booz Allen Benefits

Nassim Taleb On What Bitcoiners, Anti-Vaxxers, VCs and Deadlifters Are Getting Wrong

Ike Perlmutter: Disney Fired Me From Marvel, I Wasn’t Laid Off

The Gambler Who Beat Roulette

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Morning News: April 5, 2023
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on April 5th, 2023 at 7:02 am

New Zealand Shocks With Big Rate Rise as Some Central Banks Pause

Europe’s Banks Ramp Up Bespoke Loan Trades to Reduce Risk

UBS Chairman’s Top-Secret Prep Paid Off in Credit Suisse Moment

UBS Seeks to Assure Investors Shotgun Credit Suisse Takeover Can Pay Off

The World of Finance Faces an Ethics Check

Cleveland Fed President Reiterates Central Bank’s Resolve to Fight Stubborn Inflation

Bank Slump Just a Blip to AT1 Evangelists Doubling Down on Trade

Biden Trade Chief Says US Working With Allies to Counter China

Apple’s Complex, Secretive Gamble to Move Beyond China

Arizona Fight Over Half-Cent Sales Tax Threatens Semiconductor Expansion

A U.K. Agency Has Fined TikTok Nearly $16 Million for Handling of Children’s Data

US 30-Year Mortgage Rate Falls to Seven-Week Low

Apartment-Building Sales Drop 74%, the Most in 14 Years

McKinsey Winding Down Firm’s Bankruptcy Practice

Frank Founder Charlie Javice Allegedly Scammed JPMorgan into $175 Million Deal with Fake Data

End of the Gas-Engine Camaro Opens a New Door for Muscle Cars

Moderate Drinking Has No Health Benefits, Analysis of Decades of Research Finds

Johnson & Johnson Reaches Deal for $8.9 Billion Talc Settlement

The Masters Is Feeling the Shockwaves of LIV Golf

Bernard Arnault Tops Elon Musk as World’s Richest Person

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