This Just In: Members of Congress Say One Thing, Do Another
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on May 4th, 2010 at 9:57 am

Oopsie:

According to The Journal’s analysis of congressional disclosures, investment accounts of 13 members of Congress or their spouses show bearish bets made in 2008 via exchange-traded funds—portfolios that trade like stocks and mirror an index. These funds were leveraged; they used derivatives and other techniques to magnify the daily moves of the index they track.
(…)
In February, Sen. Johnny Isakson (R., Ga.) argued on the Senate floor that “we don’t need those speculating in the marketplace to take unfair advantage of the values of equities that are owned by Americans all over this country for the sake of making a buck on a short sale.”
On Oct. 8 and 9, 2008—as the Federal Reserve was bailing out American International Group Inc.—an account Sen. Isakson held invested more than $30,000 in ProShares UltraShort 7-10 Year Treasury and UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury, the records show. These are “leveraged short” funds, designed to gain $2 for each $1 drop in the daily value of U.S. Treasury bonds.
(…)
“I don’t trade on margin”—money borrowed from a broker to raise potential returns—Rep. Bachus said in an email, “and don’t consider my investments leveraged to any risky extent.” He added: “Never have I traded on nonpublic information, nor do I trade in financial stocks.”
Rep. Bachus made roughly $28,000 on his trades in options and leveraged ETFs in 2008, according to a Journal analysis, a figure he called “essentially correct.”
(…)
Rep. Shelley Berkley (D., Nev.), a member of the House Ways and Means Committee, has been a critic of Wall Street. In a statement on the House floor Feb. 23, she said: “Representing Las Vegas, let me assure you, no casino on the planet behaves as irresponsibly and recklessly as Wall Street does. Wall Street ought to be ashamed, and take a lesson from the casino industry.”
An account held by her husband, Lawrence Lehrner, shows 57 trades in 2008 in ETFs designed to gain $2 for each $1 drop in the value of a market index, the disclosures show. Between July 25 and July 29, 2008—four months after Bear Stearns Cos. fell—records show four trades in and out of ProShares UltraShort Financial fund.

(Via: Falkenstein)

Earnings Preview for Nicholas Financial
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on May 4th, 2010 at 7:55 am

I’ve written a great deal about Nicholas Financial (NICK), probably more than any other stock. The company is a small firm that provides loans for used cars. If you’ve read this blog for some time, then it’s no secret to you that I believe the stock is going for a tremendous bargain and that the investing public doesn’t properly understand the company. Currently, no Wall Street firms follow the stock. I think I’m the only person who writes about Nicholas.
Here’s my take: I think investors have mistakenly lumped Nicholas in with other subprime lenders. They see “used car loans” and instandly think toxic debt. The major difference is that Nicholas doesn’t securitize its loans and the company is rather conservative in its accounting.
Make no mistake, Nicholas’ customers have been hit hard by the recession that has impacted the company’s portfolio, but Nicholas is still a fundamentally solid business. I’ve spoken with senior management a few times and each time, I’ve come out feeling that Nicholas is well-run and will thrive. I will also reveal that Nicholas is currently my largest personal holding.
The fiscal fourth-quarter earnings report is due out sometime this week. My forecast is that Nicholas will earn about 25 cents per share (give or take). I think it’s very possible that Nicholas will earn as much as $1.20 per share during this calendar year (I’ll say $1 a share is the low end). Now bear in mind that this is a stock currently going for $8.75, or about seven to eight times forward earnings.
Nicholas tends to be a fairly stable business except for one metric—provision for credit losses. In other words, bum loans. This number skyrocketed but it’s been coming down. Last quarter, it hit 5.34% which is nearly half what it was in September 2008. Every inch that number falls, it’s better for Nicholas. I’m hoping it will fall below 5% for this report. The provision for credit losses has fallen now for five straight quarters.
Even if my forecast if off by a little, I’m not worried at all. The valuation is so low that there’s an enormous margin of safety. This post probably best spells out why Nicholas is such a compelling buy.
Here are some very basic projections: I think that receivable will be about $230 million. The gross yield will be about 25.4% which will make revenues around $14.5 million. Interest expenses will rise to about 2.4% or about $1.4 million. This will make net revenues of about $13.1 million.
I’m pegging the provision for credit loss at 4.8%. Since the economy in Florida is still rough, this number will see smaller and smaller declines. Ultimately, I think NICK is worth $12 to $15 a share. This is an outstanding buy.
(Be warned that NICK is a micro-cap so that shares are somewhat illiquid. I actually prefer that. The stock can trade with a wide bid-ask spread. It’s also common for NICK to go a whole day without trading one share. This may frustrate some investors.)

The Stock Market’s Best Day in Two Month
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on May 3rd, 2010 at 6:08 pm

Today was a good day for Wall Street. The S&P 500 is back over 1200 as the index posted its best gain since March 5. The S&P 500 gained 1.31% today while our Buy List did slightly better gaining 1.43%. The only sore spot was Sysco (SYY) which dropped 1.6% after it reported decent earnings (don’t ask me).
I was very pleased to see Nicholas Financial (NICK) close at $8.75 which is a new two-year high. The company is set to report earnings this week and I’m expecting EPS of around 25 cents a share. I continue to believe this is a hugely under-priced stock.
I think I might get in trouble for writing this on the Internet, but this earnings season has been very, very good.

The first-quarter earnings season is shaping up to be one of the strongest in decades. About two-thirds of S&P 500-stock index companies reported earnings by last Friday, with 78% beating analysts’ estimates, according to Thomson Reuters. And they beat them by an impressive 16.3% on average. If that rate holds, it will be the highest since 1994.
That performance has come amid signs of broad-based, sustainable growth. Fourth-quarter earnings were influenced by strong financial-sector results; strength appears to be more widely spread in the first quarter.
Excluding financials, year-on-year earnings growth is tracking at about 35% in the first quarter, up from 18% in the fourth quarter. Nine in 10 companies in the technology and consumer-discretionary sectors have beaten estimates.

The Lloyd and Charlie Show
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on May 3rd, 2010 at 1:59 pm

Lloyd Blankfein sits down to chat with Charlie Rose (this video is 51 minutes).

S&P 500 Total Return Index
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on May 3rd, 2010 at 12:49 pm

Here’s a look at the S&P 500’s Total Return Index which includes reinvested dividends:

Even after an impressive rally, we’re still below where we were 10 years ago. Inflation, or at least the official measures of inflation, show that prices are up close to 30% from 10 years ago.

January 2011 $2.50 Goldman Sachs Puts
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on May 3rd, 2010 at 11:09 am

Timothy Collins reports:

In case anyone is interested, the January 2011 $2.50 Goldman Sachs puts – yes, $2.50 puts — are trading at 2 cents by 3 cents.

Hmmm. I’ll wait and see.

Buffett Talks Business
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on May 3rd, 2010 at 10:44 am

(Via: Ritholtz)

ISM Index Rises to 60.4
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on May 3rd, 2010 at 10:30 am

One of my favorite economic indexes is the Institute for Supply Management’s Index. The latest number was just released and it was another very good report:

Conditions for the nation’s manufacturers improved again in April to its highest level since June 2004, the Institute for Supply Management reported Monday. The ISM index jumped to 60.4% in April from 59.6% in March. This is above forecasts. The consensus forecast of estimates collected by MarketWatch was for the index to rise to 60.1%. Readings above 50 indicate expansion. New orders were strong in April and the employment index improved again. Seventeen of 18 industries reported growth in April.

The ISM comes out on the first business day of each month which makes it far more timely than many other economic indicators. Any number above 50 means the economy is growing. Below 50 means it’s contracting.
Historically, the ISM has a very good track record of pinpointing recessions.

I’m still in the camp that thinks the Fed will raise rates — perhaps not soon, but sooner than most people expect.

Sysco Has Turned the Corner
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on May 3rd, 2010 at 10:17 am

Our Buy List is very nearly done with this earnings season. Today, Sysco (SYY) reported earnings for its fiscal third quarter of 42 cents a share. This was two cents better than Wall Street’s estimates. This was the fourth straight quarter that Sysco has topped expectations. The stock opened higher but has since pulled back and is now down slightly.
Bill DeLaney, Sysco’s CEO said, “The underlying business environment appears to be improving, as evidenced by both the case volume growth and easing of deflation that we realized as the quarter progressed.”
This is a key point. Sysco has been sharply impacted by lower prices. They’ve responded by cutting overheard (meaning jobs and pay), but this past quarter is the first one since September 2008 that showed growing year-over-year sales. This is how good companies manage their way through recessions. Sysco is a good example of a company that has met its challenges but it hasn’t yet been rewarded by investors.
For this fiscal year (ending in June), Sysco should make about $1.95 per share, and probably about $2.10 per share next year. Sysco currently pays a nice dividend which yields 3.2%. Given Sysco’s current price, the stock is a decent buy.
The one remaining Buy List stock to report earnings is little Nicholas Financial (NICK). I’m a big fan of NICK and I think it’s an outstanding buy. I’ll have more on NICK later this week.

How the Toxic Assets Were Magnified
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on May 3rd, 2010 at 9:28 am

One of the interesting aspects of the financial crisis is how a relatively small sector of the mortgage housing market — subprime — was able to infect the entire financial system. The WSJ has a very good article explaining how this was done (warning, it’s a little on the wonky side):

In a memo last week, panel Chairman Sen. Carl Levin (D., Mich.) said Goldman’s work “magnified the impact of toxic mortgages” by replicating mortgage securities in debt pools known as collateralized debt obligations as well as CDO derivatives, and also in an index that tracks subprime bonds.
The subprime mortgages that caused big losses generally were packaged into CDOs, in which dozens of mortgage-backed bonds were pooled together and slices of the CDOs were sold to investors. Another version of these CDOs didn’t contain actual mortgage bonds but were linked to them via derivatives called credit-default swaps. Through the use of derivatives, banks created many of these synthetic CDOs using the same mortgage securities, all of which would rise or fall in value depending on how the mortgages were performing. With synthetic CDOs, those who had bet that the loans would perform well were on the hook if their performance deteriorated.
In effect, the documents said, Wall Street was “copying and pasting” what turned out to be the worst-performing securities of the mortgage boom. Such activity helped multiply opportunities for hedge funds and traders who wanted to short the housing market, but magnified the losses of those on the other side of the trades. To short a trade, in this instance, is to bet the housing market will turn down.

In the Washington Post, Heidi Moore takes on the silly notion that only sophisticated were hurt:

It’s not just the big clients, however, that get hurt. What Wall Street would like to ignore when it is taking bets in its casino is that a big pile of chips on the table come from regular consumers — from their bank deposits, retirement accounts, credit-card balances, car loans and mortgages. That’s why the distinction between these sophisticated investors and everyone else is nonexistent. When Wall Street banks omit information and draw profits from “institutional investors,” that means they are taking money from your pension funds, your school endowments, and your city and state governments. Other sophisticated investors include hedge funds, which take money from those pension funds, or private-equity funds, which own companies that employ 10 percent of all Americans.
Pension funds, for instance, are considered “sophisticated investors” on Wall Street. But those are just pools of retirement money owed to workers. The pension funds, looking to expand their stash, invest in stocks and bonds sold by Wall Street. These pension funds also give their money to other funds, such as hedge funds and private equity funds, that invest that money in riskier investments, perhaps troubled companies or distressed mortgages. Pension funds play the Wall Street game to score a healthy return — but when they lose, the money lost belongs to regular people.