• AutoZone Beat Expectations But Not By Enough So Shares to Fall
    Posted by on May 27th, 2009 at 9:21 am

    This is getting a little post-modern for me. Shares of AutoZone (AZO) just reported blow-out earnings. The company earned $3.13 a share, 24 cents more than expectations. Obviously, consumers would rather fix up a car now rather than get a new one. Plus, the dealerships aren’t in the best of shape right now.
    But here’s the weird part: The shares are trading lower in the pre-market. Why? Reuters writes:

    Shares of the largest U.S. auto parts retailer fell 2.2 percent in premarket trading on Wednesday, with analysts noting that investors expected more from the company after a string of solid profit reports.

    So they beat expectations but not by enough. Um…then what was the expectation?

  • AP: Roubini recommends Chinese model for North Korea
    Posted by on May 27th, 2009 at 9:09 am

    The AP reports:

    Impoverished North Korea can liberalize its economy while maintaining its political system if it follows the path taken by China and Vietnam, prominent economist Nouriel Roubini said Wednesday.
    “I think the lesson is that progressive economic opening and liberalization even in a formerly centrally-controlled economy can lead to beneficial changes,” Roubini told reporters on the sidelines of a technology forum.

    The headline reads “Roubini recommends Chinese model for North Korea” when I think he means that it’s one possibility. The AP makes it sound like Roubini supports the Chinese model.
    To Kim Jong Il, I think the words “Chinese model” mean something very different.

  • The 20 Best-Performing Stocks of the Last Decade
    Posted by on May 27th, 2009 at 8:22 am

    From Business Week:
    Southwestern Energy (SWN)……………….3,662%
    Celgene (CELG)…………………………………..2,607%
    XTO Energy (XTO)……………………………….2,088%
    Stericycle (SRCL)………………………………..1,503%
    Gilead Sciences (GILD)………………………..1,491%
    Denbury Resources (DNR)……………………1,271%
    FLIR Systems (FLIR)……………………………1,190%
    Ventas (VTR)……………………………………….1,127%
    Range Resources (RRC)……………………….1,124%
    Lab Corp of America (LH)…………………….1,107%
    Quest Diagnostics (DGX)………………………..835%
    Chesapeake Energy (CHK)……………………..813%
    C.H. Robinson (CHRW)……………………………692%
    Varian Medical Systems (VAR)………………..677%
    Occidental Petroleum (OXY)…………………..634%
    EOG Resources (EOG)……………………………599%
    Express Scripts (ESRX)…………………………..595%
    EQT Corp (EQT)…………………………………….540%
    Apache Corp (APA)………………………………..486%
    CONSOL Energy (CNX)………………………….486%
    (Note: BW restricted the list to S&P 500 members with betas less than 1.)

  • Rand Disappearing from Circulation in Harare
    Posted by on May 26th, 2009 at 10:48 pm

    Megabe may be a dictator but there’s one law he can’t change–Gresham’s:

    The South African rand is disappearing from circulation especially in Harare, as it continues to gain value over the American dollar.
    The rand however, remains the reference currency and is widely used in Midlands and Matabeleland.
    Traders in the market now prefer to sell their good in rand as compared to the US dollar.
    The parallel market is trading at a cross rate of US$1 at an equivalent of R9 with some trading as low as R8, 50 for a dollar.

  • If you’ve ever wondered if shooting off fireworks under a frozen lake is cool, it turns out that it totally is.
    Posted by on May 26th, 2009 at 6:00 pm

  • Figures on government spending and debt
    Posted by on May 26th, 2009 at 4:44 pm

    From AP:

    Total public debt subject to limit May 22…….11,241,715
    Statutory debt limit…………………………………12,104,000
    Total public debt outstanding May 22………..11,301,676
    Operating balance May 22……………………………229,391
    Interest fiscal year 2009 thru April………………..193,439
    Interest same period 2008…………………………..243,904
    Deficit fiscal year 2009 thru April……………………802,294
    Deficit same period 2008……………………………..153,471
    Receipts fiscal year 2009 thru April……………..1,256,066
    Receipts same period 2008 ……………………….1,549,720
    Outlays fiscal year 2009 thru April……………….2,058,360
    Outlays same period 2008…………………………1,703,191
    Gold assets in April………………………………………..11,041

    I’m assuming these are in millions of dollars.

  • Apparently, Everyone Saw It Coming
    Posted by on May 26th, 2009 at 2:48 pm

    Google results for “predicted the recession.”

  • The Savings Glut Is Legit
    Posted by on May 26th, 2009 at 2:16 pm

    Megan McArdle has a very good defense of the savings glut argument. Just because Alan Greenspan believes something doesn’t mean it’s wrong.
    I think the giant amount of Chinese investment that came into U.S. Treasuries massively altered our financial system. Too many folks see this story as an excuse to get Greenspan off the hook. That’s not necessarily the case.
    We tend to think of lending someone money is doing them a favor. If you really want to hurt a country, don’t invade them, lend them too much money.

  • 10 Things You Didn’t Know About Ben Bernanke
    Posted by on May 26th, 2009 at 12:11 pm

    From US News & World Report:

    1. Ben Shalom Bernanke was born Dec. 13, 1953, in Augusta, Ga. The family moved to Dillon, S.C., when he was 4 months old.
    2. Bernanke’s father, Philip, was a partner in a pharmacy; his mother, Edna, was a substitute teacher.
    3. Bernanke learned to read in kindergarten and skipped first grade. At age 11, he won the South Carolina state spelling bee.
    4. In high school, he taught himself calculus, since his school did not offer the course. He scored a 1590 out of 1600 on the SAT and graduated at the top of his class in 1971.
    5. He received his B.A. in economics from Harvard in 1975 and his Ph.D. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1979.
    6. During college breaks, Bernanke worked a variety of jobs, including a summer as a waiter at South of the Border, a Mexican-themed roadside attraction near the border of North and South Carolina.
    7. In 1979, Bernanke moved to California, where he taught economics at Stanford while his new wife, Anna, pursued her master’s.
    8. In 1985, Bernanke moved back east to teach at Princeton; in 1996, he became chairman of the university’s economics department.
    9. In 2002, he became a Federal Reserve governor. Three years later, he was named chairman of President George W. Bush’s Council of Economic Advisers. In February 2006, he became the 14th chairman of the Federal Reserve Board.
    10. Bernanke learned Hebrew partly from his grandfather. He officiated at the bar and bat mitzvahs of his children, Joel and Alyssa, without the help of a rabbi.

    (HT: WSF)

  • Reuters on Zari Rachev
    Posted by on May 26th, 2009 at 10:31 am

    Here’s an interesting article on Zari Rachev.

    Professor Zari Rachev scorns the idea that market cataclysms cannot be forecast. He says his statistical models have predicted them, and his customers agree.
    His daughter is now president of New York-based company FinAnalytica, which uses his models to provide investors and risk managers with a risk indicator that takes into account the worst-case scenarios.
    As those who have so far survived the financial crisis pick over the wreckage to develop enhanced predictors of market risk, Rachev’s are among the offerings for people who believe statistical models can help.
    “This past year was very important for us, because it validated everything that we worked for,” Boryana Racheva-Iotova told Reuters by telephone from Bulgaria.
    Her firm’s risk measure, fat-tailed expected tail loss or ETL, gave investors advance notice of a sharp fall in the Dow Jones Industrial Average among other markets: the Dow fell from a life high in November 2007 to a 12-year low in March 2009, sliding sharpest after Lehman Brothers failed in September 2008.

    You can read the rest here.