• Voting During a Recession
    Posted by on October 31st, 2008 at 9:53 pm

    This will be the first time Americans will be voting for president during a recession in 48 years. The National Bureau of Economic Research hasn’t officially declared this a recession, but I’m assuming they’re mark the beginning of this current recession as starting sometime in the second quarter. If I had to guess, I’d say May or June.
    NBER has the dates of recessions going back to 1854 and this is the longest stretch without a recession election.
    Here are the previous recession elections:
    1860
    1876
    1884
    1896
    1900
    1920
    1932
    1948
    1960
    Several of those are now viewed as pretty historic elections. Notice how often there was a change of parties. It’s also pretty amazing how Harry Truman pulled it off 60 years ago.

  • The Nouriel Roubini Halloween Facemask
    Posted by on October 31st, 2008 at 12:46 pm

    Be afraid.
    Be very afraid.

  • Charlie Gasparino Gets Philosophical…I Think
    Posted by on October 30th, 2008 at 8:44 pm

  • The First Trading Day of the Month
    Posted by on October 30th, 2008 at 7:59 pm

    As we get set for the weekend, I’ll remind you the first trading day of the month has performed very well. Over the last 13 years, the S&P 500 is up 64.1%, but the combined return of the first trading day is up 68.6%. The first day of the month makes up slightly less than 5% of trading days.
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  • Slowest Eight-Year Economic Growth Rate in 50 Years
    Posted by on October 30th, 2008 at 1:03 pm

    With today’s third-quarter GDP report, the trailing 32-quarter GDP growth rate is 19.1% which is annualized at 2.2%. That’s the lowest since the quarterly records start in 1947.
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  • Headlines You Don’t See
    Posted by on October 30th, 2008 at 12:55 pm

    Market Watch Reports:

    Exxon Mobil breaks record with $14.8 billion profit

    Or another way of phrasing it:

    Exxon Mobil breaks record with $11.3 billion tax bill

  • Bear Market Rallies
    Posted by on October 29th, 2008 at 11:15 am

    Since the market broke one year ago, the Dow hasn’t been able to sustain one single bear market rally. The largest so far was an 11.2% gain from March 10 to May 2. With yesterday’s 10.9% gain, we might able to break that today.
    Bear market rallies are very typical in long down markets. The Dow lost 89% from September 1929 to July 1932, however it was anything but a straight line. There were five separate rallies of 23% or more. By “separate rally,” I mean that Dow lost everything it gained from the rally and went on to make a new lower. Think about that—each one was a false signal that the bad times were over.
    When the Nasdaq dropped 78% in the early part of this decade, there were four separate rallies of 24% or more. Three of the rallies were over 35%.
    Just a friendly warning for you.

  • WR Berkley and Fiserv’s Earnings
    Posted by on October 29th, 2008 at 8:55 am

    I have two recent earnings reports to pass along:
    WR Berkley (WRB) yesterday reported third-quarter operating earnings of 73 cents a share. That was two cents more than Wall Street was expecting. Unfortunately, it was down from the 93 cents a share it made in last year’s third quarter. This has been a difficult time for the entire insurance industry, but WRB is still going for less than eight times next year’s earnings.
    Fiserv (FISV) reported earnings after charges of 81 cents a share, which was two cents below Street estimates. Despite the miss, it’s an impressive increase over the 72 cents a share from last year’s third quarter. Fiserv’s stock is down very sharply in the past few weeks and it’s also going for just eight times earnings.

  • +889.35
    Posted by on October 28th, 2008 at 9:21 pm

    Today was the sixth-best day ever for the Dow. The fifth-best day came just two weeks ago yesterday.
    You know you’re in a different environment when you’re up 10% and it’s not even the best day of the month.

  • The Dow to S&P Ratio
    Posted by on October 28th, 2008 at 3:00 pm

    Leaving aside arguments over price-weighted indexes, the Dow has recently been doing better—or rather—falling slightly less dramatically than the S&P 500. The two indexes generally move in tandem, but divergences aren’t unusual and we’re seeing one now.
    The ratio of the Dow to the S&P 500 is now at a six-year high. As of today’s close, the Dow is 9.64 times the S&P 500. (This is, of course, index value and not the market value of the two indexes.)
    If this trend continues, the ratio could soon reach a 32-year high—and if the trend continues further still, the ratio could break 10.0 for the first time in 42 years.
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    If the Dow had performed as well as the S&P 500 since early 2006, it would be over 1,000 points lower today.