• The Great Crash of 1906
    Posted by on January 22nd, 2006 at 1:38 pm

    We recently celebrated the 100th anniversary of the start of the longest bear market in history.
    What’s that, you say never heard of the Crash of ‘06?
    On January 19, 1906, the Dow peaked at 103. That date may not ring throughout the annals of history, but it was pretty important for the stock market.
    The stock market soon crashed and by 1907, the Dow bottomed out at 53. Now that’s a bear market! None of this wussy 1.8% nonsense.
    The Dow eventually recovered, but the January 19, 1906 high haunted the market for years to come. Even by 1914, the index was still in the 80’s when the exchange was shut down due to troubles “over there.” Soon traders started doing business on the street, so the NYSE opened again that winter. And once again, the Dow plunged 53.
    Nevertheless, the Great War was good business, and the Dow finally hit a new record of 103.11 on September 28, 1916. The Dow nearly got to 120 in 1919, but there were still some nasty corrections. The Dow fell below 70 in 1917 and again 1921.
    By 1923, the market took off. The Dow broke 100 in 1924. In early 1928, it hit 200, and a year later it smashed through 300. Over the summer, the Dow peaked at 380.
    Three years later, it was at 42.
    After Pearl Harbor, there was another slow sell-off. On April 28, 1942, the Dow finally bottomed out at 92.92.
    Wanna read something scary? This is from FDR’s fireside chat that day:

    Yesterday I submitted to the Congress of the United States a seven-point program, a program of general principles which taken together could be called the national economic policy for attaining the great objective of keeping the cost of living down. I repeat them now to you in substance:
    (1.) First. We must, through heavier taxes, keep personal and corporate profits at a low reasonable rate.
    (2.) Second. We must fix ceilings on prices and rents.
    (3.) Third. We must stabilize wages.
    (4.) Fourth. We must stabilize farm prices.
    (5.) Fifth. We must put more billions into War Bonds.
    (6.) Sixth. We must ration all essential commodities, which are scarce.
    (7.) Seventh. We must discourage installment buying, and encourage paying off debts and mortgages.

    Whoa! I can’t imagine any politician talking like that today.
    The market started to rise. July 2, 1942 was the last time the Dow closed below 103—an astounding 36-1/2 years after it first hit that level.
    For comparison, 36-1/2 years ago was the time of Woodstock and the Moon landing. Today’s Dow is over 12 times higher than it was back then. That’s a good fact to keep that in mind the next time you hear someone complain.

  • Google Earth
    Posted by on January 21st, 2006 at 7:48 pm

    is the greatest invention in the history of the world…or at least the most addictive (download).
    A few things I’ve noticed:
    21° 21′ 53″ N 157° 57′ 00″ W
    The USS Arizona
    You can see the whole ship underwater. You can even see the oil slick coming from the boat. I used the “Measure” function under “Tools.” It’s 590 feet long. I think that’s the “Lady Mo” to the southwest.
    34° 04′ 24″ N 118° 14′ 25″ W
    Chavez Ravine.
    I measured 395 feet to straightaway.
    41° 53′ 25″ N 12° 29′ 31″ E
    The Colosseum
    The Vatican is two miles to the northwest.
    44° 35′ 24″ N 104° 42′ 55″ W
    Dah Doo Di Dah Doo
    37° 48′ 51″ N 122° 28′ 42″ W
    The Golden Gate Bridge. Wow! Just amazing.
    Alcatraz is the little island three miles due east. Hey, it’s only a 4,765-foot swim to the pier. But I’m guessing the water might be a little cold.
    46° 12’00” N 122° 11′ 00″ W
    Mount St. Helens
    Extra cool. Click the “terrain” box, then “tilt” down a little, and slowly scan over the volcano from the north at about 12,000 feet. (Optional: Make airplanes noises).
    40° 42’26” N 74° 00’33” W
    40 Wall Street. Sorry Donald, but I will never call this the Trump Building. Ever. Forty Wall was designed to be the tallest building in the world, and it was for a time, until Walter Chrysler unveiled his top secret spire on his building (3.6 miles to the northeast).
    Let me know if you find any cool places.
    P.S. Quick, a parking space! (40° 42′ 27.18″ N 74° 00′ 28.46″ W)

  • More Firms Are Refusing to Provide Earnings Guidance
    Posted by on January 21st, 2006 at 4:29 pm

    Since the tech bubble burst nearly six years, regulators have declared war on research analysts. There was the global research settlement, plus new guidelines like Regulation FD.
    When it comes to criticizing the Street, I take a back seat to no one. However, we’re now starting to see some unintended consequences of the anti-analyst movement. Perhaps the most troubling is that more and more companies are refusing to provide any earnings guidance whatsoever.
    This week, Motorola (MOT) become the latest stock to say that it will no longer tell the public where it sees its earnings headed. Intel (INTC) said that it will no longer provide its mid-quarter sales updates. Today, only 71% of the publicly traded stocks give earnings guidance, which is down from 77% three years ago.
    I really can’t blame these companies. The legal atmosphere has become toxic, and any misstep could result in legal action. As usual, an attempt for more transparency has resulted in less.
    Hopefully, this will help more independent analysts, like stock bloggers, and any individual investor willing to do a little homework. There are lots of great stocks out there that almost no one knows about.
    A few weeks ago, I mentioned a great little bank Northern Empire Bancshares (NREB). The company just report terrific earnings. For 2005, EPS came in at $1.59 compared with $1.23 for 2004. Not many banks are growing like that, yet not one single analyst follows the stock. There’s no guidance, no consensus, no upgrades or downgrades, just year after year of outstanding results.
    Perhaps the lack of guidance isn’t as troubling as I think. The great stocks are still out there, but we may have to work a little harder to find them.

  • What if They Held an Olympics
    Posted by on January 21st, 2006 at 3:56 pm

    and nobody came?
    Forty percent of the tickets to Turin(o) are unsold.

  • 213 Points Down
    Posted by on January 20th, 2006 at 5:54 pm

    It’s all my fault. I thought I’d take it easy today, maybe a post or two. The weather’s so nice out, what’s the worst that could happen?
    213 points. That’s what could happen.
    Obviously, the market can’t live without me. I’ve always suspected as much, and now I have proof. Today, the Dow gave us its first 200 point drop in nearly three years. Ugh.
    The S&P 500 fell 1.83% which was its biggest fall since September 24, 2003. The Nasdaq dropped 2.35% and erased all its gains for the year. Remember that Google (GOOG) stock? It lost 8.5% today—its worst day ever—and fell below $400 a share. Last Wednesday, the stock was at $475.
    Today, energy stocks led the charge and tech stocks got whacked the most. Concerns about the nuts running Iran, and the reappearance OBL sent oil up $1.52 to $68.35 a barrel. I think it’s interesting that oil is climbing on potential news, not news itself. This is a typical pattern. Oil rallies on fears, but falls on news.
    Most people forget that the hurricanes didn’t cause oil to rally. Oil peaked on the day Katrina made landfall. The price of oil fell in the aftermath. That’s now how many people have remembered it. We’re not experiencing inflation. This is just scared oil traders.
    The Oil Service Holders ETF (OIH) has become very popular with traders, and it shined today. That ETF tracks the Dow Oil Equipment and Services Index (^DJUSOI) which rose 2.56%. That was the single best industry group of all 100 sectors. Of the stocks in that index, Schlumberger (SLB) rose 6.4% and Halliburton (HAL) rose 5.2%. This energy rally is starting to depart from reality. It’s as if Google isn’t falling, it’s just being replaced. Same crazniness, different stocks.
    On the tech side, the Dow Jones U.S. Technology Total Return Index (^DJUSTCT) dropped 3.16%. That doesn’t shock me so much.
    Twenty-nine of the 30 Dow stocks lost value. Every single stock on our Buy List fell today. Combined, the Buy List fell 2.12%. Our biggest losers were Respironics (RESP) which lost 4.30% and UnitedHealth (UNH) which lost 3.24%. There wasn’t major news with either stock. Unlike the Dow and Nasdaq, we’re still up for the year (0.167% woo!).
    General Electric (GE) made a lot of news by reporting earnings that matched estimates, but sales were weak. The stock fell 3.8%. That’s about $13 billion. Citigroup (C) fell 4.7% as it missed its earnings by two cents a share.
    Today the market clearly said that it’s worried about the economy. Stocks move to earnigns and interest rates. Since long-term rates fell, that must mean its earnings. Here’s our proof: The Cyclical Index (^CYC) fell 2.41% today, but the Consumer Index (^CMR) only fell 1.31%. That’s a pretty wide spread for one day.
    One curious thing today is that investors didn’t seek safety in Treasury bills. The three-month yield rose today to 4.25%. Investors did seek comfort in longer term Treasuries. The 10-year yield fell to 4.36%. Also, gold fell today. That wouldn’t happen if people were really scared.
    I’m not concerned by today’s sell-off. I had said before that too much of the recent rally has been skewed to tech and energy. That couldn’t keep up. I was glad to see tech come down some, but energy look at risky as ever.
    More of our stocks will report earnings next week, and I think our Buy List looks as good as ever. It should be a good week for us.
    Here’s today’s damage:
    dow.bmp

  • The Midday Market
    Posted by on January 20th, 2006 at 12:09 pm

    Here are few random thoughts on the market this morning.
    This is one of the uglier days of the year so far. The energy stocks are climbing once again, while all the other sectors are in the red. GE’s earnings report didn’t please the trading gods. The techs are getting hit hard with the industrials close behind. Motorola (MOT) became the latest tech stock to fall after reporting good earnings. The market was annoyed that the company didn’t raise its guidance.
    The Dow is currently down over 120 points, and oil is close to $68 a barrel. The Dow Oil Equipment & Services Index (^DJUSOI) is up nearly 19% this year. The Oil Service Holders (OIH) closely tracks this index. The index includes stocks like Schlumberger (SLB), Transocean (RIG), Halliburton (HAL) and Baker Hughes (BHI).
    Although I liked what Home Depot (HD) had to say yesterday, some investors didn’t. The company said that it’s going to slow the rate of new store openings, while it focuses more attention on industrial customers. I’ve heard the professional builders hate Home Depot with a passion, and the company is looking for reconciliation.
    Although UnitedHealth’s (UNH) earnings missed some analysts’ expectations, the stock recovered yesterday afternoon from a sell-off in the morning. Varian (VAR) is the only stock on the Buy List that’s up. Jim Cramer profiled the stock on last night’s show. I’m curious if he’s following IBD’s lead.
    Gold is at another 25-year high. The metal is close to $570 an ounce. Google (GOOG) is down another $15 a share today.

  • Every Weekly Dow Close
    Posted by on January 19th, 2006 at 11:03 pm

    I’m an incessant data fiend. If something has data, I’m all over it. Even as a kid, I could swallow baseball statistics whole. Batting averages, slugging averages, it didn’t matter. I have no idea why I do it. I just do.
    I’m afraid I’m incurable. Any twelve-step program would backfire. I’d count the steps and find a moving average. I’m pathetic, I know.
    Here’s an excel spreadsheet of the Dow’s closing value for every week. And by that, I mean week. Starting from when Mr. Dow began calculating it by hand. All 5,698 weeks from May 12, 1896 until today.
    Some stats: The Dow’s average weekly gain is puny, just 0.13% (this doesn’t include dividends). That’s equal to a $76 stock rising 10 cents in a week.
    The weekly standard deviation is 2.56%. So the market’s average weekly swing is nearly 20 times its average weekly change. So 95% of what happens each week is pure noise. It’s totally meaningless.
    And that noise hangs around for a long time. Even after five years, the Dow’s average return is still equal to one standard deviation (for cool math types, 1.0013^260 is roughly 2.56*[260^0.5]).
    Think about that. That means that there’s roughly a 1-in-6 chance that the Dow will be exactly where it half-a-decade from now. Five years, zippo capital gains.
    The Dow is currently 2.8% higher than where it was five years ago today.
    Let’s hope the next five years will be better.

  • Home Depot Raises Dividend by 50%
    Posted by on January 19th, 2006 at 1:58 pm

    We have a nice rally on our hands this afternoon. The big news today is that Disney (DIS) is reportedly in talks to buy Pixar (PIXR). I can’t say that this is a big surprise, but it’s a neat story. It’s the marriage of old and new media. Disney’s stock hasn’t been a good buy in ten years. If the deal goes through, Steve Jobs would be Disney’s largest shareholder. I’m sure he won’t be a silent partner, which is probably a good thing.
    There’s more good news for our Buy List. Home Depot (HD) raised its earnings forecast and increased its dividend by 50% to 60 cents a share.

    For 2005, the company expects earnings at the high end of its projected growth range of 17% to 18%, and sales at the midpoint of its growth range of 10% to 12%. On this basis, Home Depot sees earnings of $2.64 to $2.67 a share for the year on sales of more than $81 billion. The current average estimates of analysts polled by Thomson First Call are for profit of $2.67 a share for 2005 on sales of $80.53 billion.

  • Computer Problems at the Nasdaq
    Posted by on January 19th, 2006 at 11:58 am

    Has caused incorrect stock quotes and prevented 81,000 trades.

  • Philips Buys Lifeline
    Posted by on January 19th, 2006 at 11:55 am

    Yesterday I was working on a post on Lifeline Systems (LIFE). I was going to say that this is a cool little small-cap health care stock that’s worth watching. The company has posted impressive sales and earnings growth for the past few years. Periodically, I like to talk about socks that I like but aren’t on my Buy List.
    Well, Philips Electronics (PHG) beat my posting skills. I find out this morning that they said they’re going to buy Lifeline for $750 million, which is a 21% premium. The stock is soaring today.
    If I had gotten to post about Lifeline 24 hours earlier, I would look like a genius today, alas, I was too slow. In any event, here’s a profile of Lifeline Systems.
    life.bmp