Morning News: November 6, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on November 6th, 2025 at 7:09 am

A Skeptical Supreme Court Puts Trump’s Economic Agenda in Question

Five Key Takeaways From the Supreme Court Tariff Argument

Bank of England Diverges From Fed With Rate Hold

Bank of Canada Gov. Macklem Tells Lawmakers Rate Policy at ‘Right’ Level

JPMorgan CEO Says Argentina May Not Need Bank Loan, Fed Will Likely Remain Independent

The Fed’s New Patience Recognizes Reality

Commerzbank Raises Interest Income Guidance Again

Stablecoin Rewards Are the Shortcut to Financial Trouble

Wise Shares Recover After Solid Results Ahead of U.S. Listing Move

H-1B Visa Hopefuls Are Being Shut Out of Jobs by Wary Recruiters

Rich Donors Bankroll Redistricting Fights Ahead of 2026 Elections

Zohran Mamdani Is a Logical Effect of a City That Won’t Stop Booming

Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Says He Has Reached Out to Zohran Mamdani

High Power Bills Are Now Swaying Elections in the US

Builders Are Offering Mortgage-Rate Discounts. Home Buyers Aren’t Biting.

Trump to Raise Food Benefit Payments After Calculation ‘Error’

US Companies Announce Most October Job Cuts in Over 20 Years

‘Jenga Tower’ US Economy Teeters as Middle Class Pulls Back Spending

AI Is Eating All the Earnings

In An AI-Driven World, Human Connection Will Still Be King

Snap Cuts Deal With Perplexity to Gain a Piece of the AI Action

The UAE Is Winning the Race to Sequence an Entire Country’s DNA

OPEC Output Rose Last Month as Restart Continued

Brazil Is Developing a Weapon for Trade Wars: Fertilizer in the Amazon

How Sparsely Populated Norway Amassed $1.8 Trillion

U.S. to Reduce Flight Traffic by 10% at 40 Airports Because of Shutdown

Air France-KLM Posts Lower Net Profit After Costs Rise

Saga of Chinese Trucking Firm Exposes US National Security Gaps

Would Elon Musk Work Harder for $1 Trillion Than $1 Billion?

The Hurdles Elon Musk Must Clear to Unlock $1 Trillion in Tesla Pay

Is Gen Z Romanticizing Cigarettes Again?

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Morning News: November 5, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on November 5th, 2025 at 7:05 am

Thailand Is Hunting Down ‘Gray Money’ Behind Baht’s Odd Strength

Lasting Economic Damage From the Longest Shutdown in US History

Longest Shutdown in History Costs US Economy About $15 Billion Each Week

Lawmakers See Hope for Ending Record-Setting Shutdown

Wall Street Drops Fear of ‘Hot Commie Summer’ in Overture to Mamdani

Wall Street Laments Mamdani’s Victory and Plots Its Next Move

Election Day Sent an Unmistakable Warning to Republicans

Thoughts On a Socialist Triumph In the World of Capitalism

Almost Half of U.S. Imports Now Have Steep Tariffs

Supreme Court Confronts Trump’s Power to Disrupt World Trade

Contra Brookings, Tax Increases Won’t Shrink the Debt

Trump Aides Raise Recession Fears, and Point Fingers at the Fed

As US Rally Pauses, Global Stocks Enjoy Historic Outperformance

Global Chip Stock Rally Founders on Concerns Over Valuations

Bitcoin Shaken by Long-Term Holders Dumping $45 Billion

Sahm: How the Fed Can Change the K-Shaped Economy

Wall Street Bonuses Expected to Be Highest in Four Years, Consultancy Says

Bank of America Raises Return Target in Bid to Catch Up with Rivals

Why ‘Payment-In-Kind’ Debt Is So Appealing — and Risky

Jensen Huang and Donald Trump Are Correct About Chinese Students

Why Is Nvidia the King of AI Chips, and Can It Last?

Palantir’s Market Value Skyrocketed. See How Its Revenue Is Still Catching Up.

IBM to Cut Thousands of Workers Amid A.I. Boom

AI’s Power Rush Lifts Smaller, Pricier Equipment Makers

There’s a $10 Trillion Antidote to Trump’s Climate Backlash

Kazakhstan As the Solution to the ‘Rare Earths’ Problem

Google Clears DOJ Antitrust Hurdle for $32 Billion Wiz Deal

There’s No ‘Hate Speech,’ and No Holding Tech Companies Liable For It

Europe’s Self-Driving Cars Aren’t Even at the Starting Line

Drug Distributor Cencora to Invest $1 Billion in U.S. Supply Chain

McDonald’s Says Deals Are Delivering Sales

Burger King Braces for the Demise of the Penny

KPop Demon Hunters Is Netflix’s Biggest Hit Ever. Where Are the Toys?

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CWS Market Review – November 4, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on November 4th, 2025 at 7:16 pm

(This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

The stock market finally got a little pushback today. This was the second-worst day for the market in over two months. The S&P 500 was down 1.17% for the day while the Nasdaq was off by 2.04%.

Of course, there have been other down days recently, but this is the first one that damaged a lot of key stocks. The High Beta sector was especially hurt today (-3.10%). This is notable because this area of the market has been nearly unstoppable since the April low.

At one point earlier today, the S&P 500 came very close to falling below its 20-day moving average. The index has now gone every day for over six months without trading below its 50-day moving average. That shows you how long and low-key this rally has been.

Even Bitcoin has been slumping. Today it fell below $100,000 for the first time since June. Gold was down as well.

Shares of Palantir (PLTR) were down more than 10% earlier today after Michael Burry revealed that he had a short position. If you recall, Burry gained fame after he shorted the housing market before the financial crisis. He was played by Christian Bale in the movie The Big Short.

I think Wall Street tends to overrate famous gurus and their bold calls. Even with Burry, he was wrong on the trade for a long time before it paid off. I favor quiet consistent investing rather than looking for the big home run. The few ones that do get the big home runs can expect to be treated as geniuses for a long time, no matter what their future record is.

Alex Karp, Palantir’s CEO, went on Squawk Box to criticize the shorts and said they were using market manipulation. I’ve always noticed that it’s only stocks that are down where the management blames shorts and manipulation. Ever notice that bulls are never blamed for manipulating the price upward?

Bear in mind that we’re talking about a stock that’s up 25-fold in the last three years. It’s bound to get nicked along the way. Despite the stock losing ground today, the company posted very good earnings.

Palantir reported earnings of 21 cents per share. That was four cents better than expected. Revenue came in at $1.18 billion. That was $90 million more than expected. For the current quarter, Palantir expects revenue of $1.33 billion, Wall Street had been expecting $1.19 billion.

Palantir’s growth has been very impressive. For Q3, its sales were up 63% and its net income tripled. For this year, the company expected sales of $4.4 billion. Wall Street had been expecting $4.17 billion. CNBC notes that “Government sales, particularly from military agencies, have been central to Palantir’s ongoing ascent.”

Karp said, “I’m not against shorting as a matter of theory, but I’m just saying pick something that is not doing a noble task.” Oh. Well, I guess we should be thanking him.

Over the past few weeks, a few prominent Wall Streeters have sounded the alarm on a rising stock market. David Solomon, the CEO of Goldman Sachs (GS) said, “Markets run in cycles, and whenever we’ve historically had a significant acceleration in a new technology that creates a lot of capital formation, and therefore lots of interesting new companies around it, you generally see the market run ahead of the potential…there are going to be winners and losers.”

I’ve also seen many comparisons of today’s market to the dot-com bubble of 25 years ago. One difference is that during the dot-com bubble and the financial crisis, the parts of the economy outside tech and real estate held up well. This time, the parts of the economy away from AI are not doing so well.

With the government still closed, we’ve had to get a little creative on finding indicators of economic health. Normally, we would get the JOLTS report today, but we did get some jobs data from Indeed, the jobs site. Indeed’s jobs posting index fell to 101.9. That’s as of October 24 and it’s the lowest reading since February 2001.

Since the middle of August, the index has fallen by 3.5%. Indeed’s index also said that since January, wages are down by 3.4%.

If the government were open, then the regular jobs report would come out this Friday. For the ghost report, Wall Street expects a drop of 60,000 jobs last month. It also sees the unemployment rate rising to 4.5%.

The Fed doesn’t meet again for another five weeks but it’s looking as though we can expect another interest rate cut. That would bring the target for the Fed funds rate down to 3.50% to 3.75%.

I’m pleased to say that we had a very good earnings report today from Henry Schein (HSIC), one of our Buy List stocks. I’ll cover it in more detail in our premium letter, but I’ll touch on some highlights here. The company makes all sorts of products for the dental industry.

CEO Stanley M. Bergman said, “We are pleased with our financial results for the third quarter, with sales growth accelerating in each of our reportable segments including solid market share gains in our distribution businesses as we are once again focused on driving growth now that the cyber incident is fully behind us.”

For its Q3, Henry Schein made $1.38 per share. That’s up from $1.22 per share last year. Wall Street had been expecting $1.28 per share. The company raised its full-year guidance to $4.88 to $4.96 per share. The previous range was for $4.80 to $4.94 per share.

So far this year, HSIC has made $3.63 per share. That implies Q4 earnings of $1.25 to $1.33 per share. Wall Street expected $1.29 per share. Quarterly sales rose 5.2% to $3.3 billion.

During Q3, Henry Schein bought back 3.3 million shares at an average price of $68.62 per share for a total of $229 million. HSIC has $980 million left in its current authorization.

Henry Schein has been working with private-equity firm KKR to enhance shareholder value. KKR currently owns 12% of HSIC’s stock. The company gave KKR the right to increase its ownership to 19.9%.

Shares of HSIC gapped higher today. At one point, the stock was up 13.7% for the day. By the closing bell, it was up 10.78%.

Lastly, shares of Denny’s (DENN) soared 50% today on news that’s it’s being taken private.

That’s all for now. The regular econ reports from the government are still on hold, but tomorrow we’re due to get the ADP report on private payrolls. This may give us a look at the strength, or weakness, of the jobs market. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

– Eddy

Morning News: November 4, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on November 4th, 2025 at 7:08 am

Stiglitz Declares an ‘Inequality Emergency’ in G-20 Report

The EU Needs To Kick Its Addiction To Tech Regulation

This Trillionaire Economy Thrived in a Global Order Trump Is Ditching

Interesting Trade-offs on Trade Await the Supremes

Trump Tariffs’ Fate Rides on Supreme Court Justices He Picked

More Tax Revenue Won’t Solve a Problem of Too Much Tax Revenue

Embattled Fed Governor Lisa Cook Voices Support for Recent Rate Cut

The Fed’s Wait-and-See Approach to AI Can’t Last

Bank Strength Comes From Prudent Lending, Not FDIC Insurance

Investors Really Don’t Care About the Shutdown

UBS Warns of Systemic Risk From Weak US Insurance Regulation

The Endless Quest to Compare College Prices Before Applying

China Is Quietly Sparking Latin America’s Startup Race

Portugal Has Plenty of Tourists. Now It Wants Data Centers

What a New Model of Climate Finance Can Look Like

Oil Glut Helps Indian Refiners Pivot Away From Russian Crude

Rick Perry’s Nuclear Ambitions Begin With Gas Power

‘Trumpette’ Billionaire Rinehart Wins Big From Rare-Earths Fight

Rheinmetall Advances East Europe Expansion With Lithuania Plant

Wall Street’s AI Energy Agenda Bleeds Into Global Climate Talks

OpenAI Wants Brands to Allow Their Mascots to Appear in Gen AI Videos

Xiaomi’s EV Gambit Includes Heavy Human Cost

Ferrari Shrugs Off Tariffs With Higher Third-Quarter Profit

First Brands Sues Founder for Allegedly Pilfering Firm Funds

The Workers Left Out of Trump’s Drug-Manufacturing Renaissance

Kimberly-Clark/Kenvue Embodies M&A’s Growth Potential

Yum Brands Explores Sale of Pizza Hut

Denny’s to Go Private in $322 Million Deal

I Saw a Vision of Chocolate’s Future in an Amsterdam Brownie

Sex Dolls, Boycotts, Protests: Furor in France as Shein Opens Paris Store

Spotify Gains Subscribers as App Offering Expands

Meet the Billionaire Trying to Save College Football From Itself

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Morning News: November 3, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on November 3rd, 2025 at 7:03 am

The Arctic’s Main Carbon Sink Is Increasingly Unstable in a Warming World

OPEC and Allies Agree to Boost Oil Production, Then Pause

OPEC+ Shows Its Pursuit of Oil Market Share Has Limits

Big Oil CEOs Warn Trump’s Russia Sanctions Will Hit Supplies

Singapore’s Top Real-Estate Asset Managers Mull Merger That Could Create $150 Billion Entity

Europe’s Role Reversal: The Problem Economies Are Now Further North

Swiss Inflation Declines as SNB Mulls Negative Rates

Stablecoin ‘Rewards’ Threaten Nascent Financial Instruments

Banks Shouldn’t Have to Answer to the Reputation Cops

SEC Aim to End Shareholder Proposals Won’t Depoliticize Corporations

Will Trump’s Tariff Deal Tilt the Playing Field Back Toward China?

Treasuries Rally Is Proving Trump’s ‘Sell America’ Critics Wrong

How the U.S. Economy Has Defied Doomsday Predictions on Tariffs

The Complex Role of Slavery in Building America’s Wealth

Builders Find Hardship in Trump’s Tariffs and Deportations

Supreme Court Confronts Trump and His Tariffs in Test of Presidential Power

Toymaker Gears Up for Supreme Court Fight Over Trump’s Tariffs

We Are a Republic, Which Means SCOTUS Should Rule Against Trump Tariffs

The ‘Peace President’ Is Driving a Defense Stock Bonanza

Food Stamp Cuts Expose Trump’s Strategy to Use Shutdown to Advance Agenda

Don’t Be Ridiculous, No One Will Starve Without SNAP

‘A Big Positive’: How One Company Plans to Profit From Medicaid Cuts

Surging Power Costs Are Putting the Squeeze on Customers

A Wave of US Layoffs Flash Early Warning Sign for Job Market

Why Companies Are No Longer Hanging On to Employees

Palantir Thinks College Might Be a Waste. So It’s Hiring High-School Grads.

Microsoft Vows to Spend $8 Billion in UAE Through 2029 on Cloud, Chips

Chip Startup Substrate Draws Skepticism in Quest to Take On TSMC

BlackRock Manager Says an AI Bust Wouldn’t End Clean-Tech Rise

Eaton to Buy Boyd Thermal for $9.5 Billion in Data Center Play

Former Honeywell CEO’s Firm Strikes Deal for Machinery Maker Husky

Driverless Freight Trucks Are Off to a Bumpy Start

Control of Tesla Is at Stake in Vote on Elon Musk’s Pay Plan

Kimberly-Clark Strikes $40 Billion Deal for Tylenol Maker Kenvue

Chipotle’s Big Bet on Younger Consumers Is Unraveling

Why the Future of Coffee Doesn’t Belong to Starbucks

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Morning News: October 31, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on October 31st, 2025 at 7:02 am

Coal Jobs Are Disappearing on the Navajo Nation. Can Trump Bring Them Back?

Exxon’s and Chevron’s Profits Fall as Oil Prices Stay Low

How Chevron Got Caught in the Clash Between the U.S. and Venezuela

Just the Threat of US Nuclear Testing Is Bad Enough

The Long Road to a U.S.-China Trade Pact

Trump Touts Rare-Earth Win in Talks That Showed Xi’s Strong Hand

The United States Cannot Protect Its Way To Prosperity

How We Lost the Trade War

The ECB and Fed Are Going in Different Directions. Can It Last?

Swiss Franc’s Pullback Likely Driven by Reduced Safe Haven Demand

Federal Reserve to Reduce Bank Supervision Staff by 30%

Cracks in the Credit Market Could Be a Warning for Wall Street

Coinbase Global Third-Quarter Sales Climb as Trading Volumes Rise

Fresnillo Shares Rise on Deal to Buy Canada’s Probe Gold

Book Review: Andrew Ross Sorkin’s Simplistic “1929”

A Top Trump Official Had to Sell His Stock. He May Have Saved Millions.

Fiserv’s Only Bear Is a 26-Year-Old Analyst Who Beat Wall Street

‘Sometimes We See Bubbles,’ Michael Burry Warns Retail Traders

More Home Purchases Are Falling Through in an Uncertain Economy

Housing Inequality Will Get Worse Before It Gets Better

Why Is Going to Law School So Popular Again?

Effective Leaders Fix Toxic Workplaces, Not Office Perks

Three Billionaires Walk Into a Fried Chicken Restaurant

Nvidia Chief Still Hopes to Sell Blackwell Chips to China

The AI Buildout Is So Big Even a Haunted House Owner Wants In

Elon Musk’s SpaceX Set to Win $2 Billion Pentagon Satellite Deal

Amazon Shares Surge on 13% Revenue Jump, Strong Cloud Sales

Cities Across the U.S. Are Putting Robots to Work

GM and Ford’s Big SUVs Are Having Their Best Year in Decades

Drug Costs Reflect Legislation To Fix Past Legislation

Chobani’s Tech-Like Valuation Puts Founder Among World’s Richest

Disney Channels Go Dark on YouTube TV

Parents Are Spending $100,000 for Their Kids to Chase Baseball Greatness

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Morning News: October 30, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on October 30th, 2025 at 7:06 am

Indian Rupee Nears Record Low as Fed-Driven Strong Dollar Weighs

Trump and Xi Ease Tension With Truce on Tariffs, Rare Earths

China’s Pause on Rare Earth Controls: What to Know

Trump Says Nvidia Chip Talks With Xi Didn’t Cover Blackwell

Trump-Xi Truce Buys Time as Both Seek Leverage in Broader Fight

Bessent Says China to Buy 12 Million Tons of Soybeans This Year

Why Trump Put Fentanyl at the Core of US-China Trade Spat

Trump, South Korea Reach Terms on Trade Deal

Sheinbaum Gets a Shot at Making Mexico Grow Faster Than the US

Golden Age of Cocaine Smuggling Puts Brazil’s Fragile Truce With Trump at Risk

Powell’s December Warning Exposes Hardening Divisions at Fed

Future Fed Rate Cuts ‘Far’ From Certain After Divided Meeting

A Month Without Data Muddles the Economic Picture

Hungry Americans Will Pay the Price for This Shutdown

The Currency Illusion Behind the Paul Ryan Border Adjustment Tax

New York’s Golden Handcuffs: Why the City Has a Special Hold on the Rich

Fiserv Erases $30 Billion in Market Value After New CEO Pulls Guidance

AIG to Buy Stakes in Convex, Onex for More Than $2.7 Billion

World Power Demand to Rise Almost a Third by 2035, Rystad Says

Meta, Microsoft Test Investors With 89% AI-Fueled Spending Surge

The Data Center Proliferation Must Be About Much More Than Data

Big Government, Not Big Business, Is Killing Competition

Boeing’s Turnaround Is Being Choked by FAA Red Tape

Airbus Cuts A220 Production Target Amid Supply-Chain Hurdles

Stellantis Warning on Charges Overshadows Revenue Gain

Novo Offers $6.5 Billion for Metsera to Challenge Pfizer

The Direct Route to Cheaper Pharmaceutical Drugs

YouTube TV Flexes Muscles Again in Showdown With Disney

A Warner Bros. Sale Makes Sense on Paper. But at What Cost?

‘House of Dynamite’ Nails the Psychological Reality of Nuclear War

John Malone Stepping Down as Chairman of Liberty Media, Liberty Global

Roblox Bookings and Users Top Estimates Thanks to Three Hit Games

Hershey Sees Soft Halloween Sales, While Nudging Up Outlook

Why Did My Favorite Candy Bar Drop ‘Milk Chocolate’ From the Label?

Starbucks Cafe Sales Stabilize After Year-and-a-Half-Long Slide

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Morning News: October 29, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on October 29th, 2025 at 7:04 am

Why China and Russia Aren’t Scared of the US

South Korea Says Agreed With US on Trade Talks Details

Japanese Executives Called On by Trump Pledge U.S. Investment

Scolded by Trump, Canada’s Prime Minister Turns to Asia for Trade

Senate Rebukes Trump on Brazil Tariffs

U.S. Manufacturing’s Mixed Picture in 4 Charts

Why Geopolitics May Dictate Gold’s Next Move

Dormant Treasuries Volatility Sets Stage for Powell Surprise

What to Watch at the Federal Reserve’s October Meeting

Why Does Everyone Want to Be a Bank Now?

How U.S. Billionaires Stack Up With the Rest of the World

How Affluent Investors Are Using Options Math to Borrow on the Cheap

In Retirement, Do You Prefer Exposure to Dollars or People?

Industry and Self-Reliant Ingenuity Will Create Much Better Schools

Americans Are Getting a Look at Next Year’s ACA Premiums and Many Don’t Like It

Don’t Extend Obamacare Without Pro-Patient Tax Reforms

China Pushes Boundaries With Animal Testing to Win Global Biotech Race

Thermo Fisher Scientific Agrees to Buy Clario Holdings for $8.88 Billion

CVS Boosts 2025 Profit Outlook, Takes $5.7 Billion Charge

Tens of Thousands of White-Collar Jobs Are Disappearing as AI Starts to Bite

UPS Has Cut 48,000 Workers Since Last Year

Why UPS Is Increasingly Turning to Gig Drivers for Deliveries

Nvidia Set to Be First $5 Trillion Company as AI Bets Boom

OpenAI’s Promise to Stay in California Helped Clear the Path for Its IPO

Watch These Five AI Signals Closely This Week

AI Won’t Give American Children the Education They Need

China’s New Coal Language Leaves More Room for Rising Use

Trump Administration Backs Plan for New Nuclear Plants

Automaker Production Stoppages Begin Over Semiconductor Shortage

The Popular 3D-Printed Gun Globalizing the Second Amendment

Paramount Signs Lease at New Jersey Studio Complex

Onitsuka Tiger Sneakers Are Winning Gen Z’s Heart

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CWS Market Review – October 28, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on October 28th, 2025 at 7:47 pm

(This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

The S&P 500 broke out to another all-time high today. The index briefly traded above 6,900 for the first time. The market has closed higher seven times in the last eight sessions.

Shares of Nvidia also closed at a record high today. The company is getting close to a market value of $5 trillion. Kevin Gordon points out that semiconductors have gone from a 2% weighting in the S&P 500 in 2013 to a 14% weighting today.

Today is October 28 and this has been an important day in Wall Street history. That’s true for both the bulls and for the bears. Seventeen years ago today, on October 28, 2008, the S&P 500 soared 10.8%. Investors were anticipating a rate cut from the Federal Reserve. That was the market’s second-best day of the last 90 years. The best day came exactly 15 days earlier.

The Financial Crisis was a hectic time, but it wasn’t the worst. That came 96 years ago today, on October 28, 1929, when the S&P 500 plunged 12.3%. (Technically, it wasn’t the S&P 500 back then.) This was the original Black Monday, and it was the worst day in market history until it was surpassed in 1987 by an even blacker Black Monday on October 19, 1987.

Black Monday from 1987 is still the worst day in market history (so far), but 1929 can say that it stands out because of its back-to-back losses. While the S&P 500 lost 12.3% on the 28th, it lost another 10.2% on Tuesday, the 29th. That works out to a two-day loss of 20.9% which is a little worse than the one-day plunge from 1987 (-20.5%).

Here’s an interesting fact you don’t often see here. By April 10, 1930, the S&P 500 had recovered to 25.92. That marked a 14% gain since October 28. After that, the market continued to fall almost nonstop for the next four years.

I’m happy to say that the stock market is in a much better mood this October. The S&P 500 closed at another all-time high today. On Friday, we got a mostly benign inflation report. I’ll have more on that in a bit. Also, the Federal Reserve began its October meeting today. The policy statement will be out tomorrow afternoon, and we can almost certainly expect another rate cut.

Within the stock market, the High Beta names continue to lead the pack. The gap between High Beta and Low Vol sectors has become quite astonishing. Just when you think it can’t get any wider, it quickly does.

Here’s a look at the High Beta and Low Vol ETFs:

Earnings season is largely going well for Wall Street. So far, 29% of S&P 500 companies have reported; 87% have beaten on EPS and 83% have beaten on revenue. Growth is currently tracking at 9.2%. Twelve companies have issued positive guidance and 11 have issued negative. The forward 12-month P/E ratio is 22.7.

September Inflation Was Tame

On Friday, the government finally decided to release the September CPI report. This happened despite the continuing government shutdown. This wasn’t some big-hearted move by Congress or the president. Instead, the Social Security Administration needs the September CPI data so it can calculate the last month of the fiscal year. That impacts the cost-of-living increases for Social Security payments.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said that consumer prices rose by 0.3% last month. That was 0.1% lower than expected. Over the last year, inflation is running at 3.0%.

The core rate, which excludes food and energy prices, increased by 0.2% last month. That was also 0.1% lower than expected. Over the last year, core inflation is running at 3%.

A 4.1% jump in gasoline prices was the largest contributor to a report that otherwise showed inflation pressures fairly muted. Food prices saw a 0.2% increase. Commodity prices overall rose 0.5%. On an annual basis, energy was up 2.8% and food rose 3.1%.

Within the food index, prices for meat, poultry, fish and eggs surged 5.2% in the past year, while nonalcoholic beverages increased 5.3%. In energy, while prices pushed higher for electricity, up 5.1%, and natural gas, up 11.7%, over the past year, gasoline prices actually fell 0.5% during the period.

Shelter costs, which comprise about one-third of the weighting in the CPI, rose just 0.2% and were up 3.6% from a year ago. Services excluding shelter costs also were 0.2% higher.

New vehicles saw a 0.8% increase, but used car and truck prices fell 0.4%.

The CPI report looks to be the last data we’ll get from the government until the shutdown ends.

The Federal Reserve started its October meeting today. Tomorrow afternoon, the Fed will release its policy statement. It’s all but certain that the Fed will cut rates again. But what happens after that?

That’s still a little cloudy but we’re starting to get some hints. The Fed is likely to cut rates again at its December meeting. After that, the Fed will probably cut rates again in either January or March. That’s still up in the air. There will probably be a few additional rate cuts later in 2026 but it’s hard to say right now. A lot can happen between now and then. Overall, I think President Trump will get the rate cuts he’s looking for.

We’re also going to get a new Chairman of the Federal Reserve in the spring. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that President Trump has narrowed his selection down to five candidates: Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, NEC Director Kevin Hassett, former Governor Kevin Warsh and BlackRock executive Rick Rieder. Of those names, Hassett is probably the frontrunner.

American Water Announces Major Deal

On Monday, one of our Buy List stocks announced a major deal. American Water Works (AWK) said it’s merging with Essential Utilities (WTRG) in an all-stock deal. The combined company will be worth about $40 billion.

The boards of both companies have unanimously approved the deal. The combined company will continue to use the name “American Water.”

According to the deal, Essential shareholders will get 0.305 shares of AWK for each share of WTRG they own. That values Essential at a 10% premium from where the stock had been. American Water has increased its dividend for 17 years in a row.

American Water shareholders will own about 69% of the company and Essential shareholders will own about 31%. American Water said it expects to maintain its long-term rate growth target of 7% to 9%.

The companies said the deal creates a more resilient utility with improved credit quality and a strong balance sheet. The companies are aiming to close the deal by Q1 of 2027. There are, of course, regulatory approvals that AWK must get for the deal to go forward.

American Water will report its Q3 earnings tomorrow before the opening bell. Wall Street expects Q3 earnings of $1.88 per share.

That’s all for now. Expect more earnings this week and next. We’ll also have the Fed’s decision tomorrow afternoon. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

– Eddy

Morning News: October 28, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on October 28th, 2025 at 7:03 am

Argentina’s Slums Abandoned Peronism—and Handed Milei the Win

China Vows Significant Boost to Consumption Share of Economy

Trump’s China Deal May Avert a Crisis of His Own Making

Resolving Trade Agreements Isn’t the Only China-Related Issue

Trump’s Big Tariff Task in Asia Is to Close the Deal

Trump Hails Ally Japan, Offers Takaichi ‘Anything You Want’

With Trump, Flattery Will Get Takaichi Everything

US to Continue Dominating Global Investment Flows, Finance Executives Say

Fed’s Policy Path Looks More Treacherous as Shutdown Delays Critical Data

Dudley: The Fed’s $6 Trillion Balance Sheet Is About Right

The Fed Should Pause in Cutting Interest Rates

Would-Be Fed Appointees Vivify the Independence Myth

How Bad Is Finance’s Cockroach Problem? We Are About to Find Out.

Citi’s Fraser Doesn’t Want Private Credit ‘Tug of War’

Nelson Peltz’s Lowball Bid for Janus Henderson Is Pretty Cheeky

Evercore’s Rainmaker Is Driving PE’s $200 Billion Bright Spot

Barclays to Buy U.S. Lending Startup Best Egg for $800 Million

PayPal Raises Earnings Guidance After Announcing OpenAI Deal

This Is How the AI Stock Boom Plays Out

Amazon to Cut 14,000 Jobs as CEO Jassy Taps AI to Reduce Costs

Amazon’s Slower Growth in AI Cloud Business May Not Be Fatal Flaw

Europe’s Solar Power Surge Puts Unprecedented Strain on Its Grid

Bill Gates Calls Out ‘Doomsday’ View of Climate Change in Memo

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UPS Stuns Wall Street With Strong Profit and 34,000 Job Cuts

The Lengths Americans Are Willing to Go to Make Every Penny Count

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Why Faith-Based Brands Prosper In Secular Markets

How KFC Lost Fast Food’s Chicken Crown—and How It Plans to Win It Back

Eli Lilly Makes Billions of Weight-Loss Pills Before US Approval

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