Morning News: October 31, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on October 31st, 2025 at 7:02 am

Coal Jobs Are Disappearing on the Navajo Nation. Can Trump Bring Them Back?

Exxon’s and Chevron’s Profits Fall as Oil Prices Stay Low

How Chevron Got Caught in the Clash Between the U.S. and Venezuela

Just the Threat of US Nuclear Testing Is Bad Enough

The Long Road to a U.S.-China Trade Pact

Trump Touts Rare-Earth Win in Talks That Showed Xi’s Strong Hand

The United States Cannot Protect Its Way To Prosperity

How We Lost the Trade War

The ECB and Fed Are Going in Different Directions. Can It Last?

Swiss Franc’s Pullback Likely Driven by Reduced Safe Haven Demand

Federal Reserve to Reduce Bank Supervision Staff by 30%

Cracks in the Credit Market Could Be a Warning for Wall Street

Coinbase Global Third-Quarter Sales Climb as Trading Volumes Rise

Fresnillo Shares Rise on Deal to Buy Canada’s Probe Gold

Book Review: Andrew Ross Sorkin’s Simplistic “1929”

A Top Trump Official Had to Sell His Stock. He May Have Saved Millions.

Fiserv’s Only Bear Is a 26-Year-Old Analyst Who Beat Wall Street

‘Sometimes We See Bubbles,’ Michael Burry Warns Retail Traders

More Home Purchases Are Falling Through in an Uncertain Economy

Housing Inequality Will Get Worse Before It Gets Better

Why Is Going to Law School So Popular Again?

Effective Leaders Fix Toxic Workplaces, Not Office Perks

Three Billionaires Walk Into a Fried Chicken Restaurant

Nvidia Chief Still Hopes to Sell Blackwell Chips to China

The AI Buildout Is So Big Even a Haunted House Owner Wants In

Elon Musk’s SpaceX Set to Win $2 Billion Pentagon Satellite Deal

Amazon Shares Surge on 13% Revenue Jump, Strong Cloud Sales

Cities Across the U.S. Are Putting Robots to Work

GM and Ford’s Big SUVs Are Having Their Best Year in Decades

Drug Costs Reflect Legislation To Fix Past Legislation

Chobani’s Tech-Like Valuation Puts Founder Among World’s Richest

Disney Channels Go Dark on YouTube TV

Parents Are Spending $100,000 for Their Kids to Chase Baseball Greatness

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Morning News: October 30, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on October 30th, 2025 at 7:06 am

Indian Rupee Nears Record Low as Fed-Driven Strong Dollar Weighs

Trump and Xi Ease Tension With Truce on Tariffs, Rare Earths

China’s Pause on Rare Earth Controls: What to Know

Trump Says Nvidia Chip Talks With Xi Didn’t Cover Blackwell

Trump-Xi Truce Buys Time as Both Seek Leverage in Broader Fight

Bessent Says China to Buy 12 Million Tons of Soybeans This Year

Why Trump Put Fentanyl at the Core of US-China Trade Spat

Trump, South Korea Reach Terms on Trade Deal

Sheinbaum Gets a Shot at Making Mexico Grow Faster Than the US

Golden Age of Cocaine Smuggling Puts Brazil’s Fragile Truce With Trump at Risk

Powell’s December Warning Exposes Hardening Divisions at Fed

Future Fed Rate Cuts ‘Far’ From Certain After Divided Meeting

A Month Without Data Muddles the Economic Picture

Hungry Americans Will Pay the Price for This Shutdown

The Currency Illusion Behind the Paul Ryan Border Adjustment Tax

New York’s Golden Handcuffs: Why the City Has a Special Hold on the Rich

Fiserv Erases $30 Billion in Market Value After New CEO Pulls Guidance

AIG to Buy Stakes in Convex, Onex for More Than $2.7 Billion

World Power Demand to Rise Almost a Third by 2035, Rystad Says

Meta, Microsoft Test Investors With 89% AI-Fueled Spending Surge

The Data Center Proliferation Must Be About Much More Than Data

Big Government, Not Big Business, Is Killing Competition

Boeing’s Turnaround Is Being Choked by FAA Red Tape

Airbus Cuts A220 Production Target Amid Supply-Chain Hurdles

Stellantis Warning on Charges Overshadows Revenue Gain

Novo Offers $6.5 Billion for Metsera to Challenge Pfizer

The Direct Route to Cheaper Pharmaceutical Drugs

YouTube TV Flexes Muscles Again in Showdown With Disney

A Warner Bros. Sale Makes Sense on Paper. But at What Cost?

‘House of Dynamite’ Nails the Psychological Reality of Nuclear War

John Malone Stepping Down as Chairman of Liberty Media, Liberty Global

Roblox Bookings and Users Top Estimates Thanks to Three Hit Games

Hershey Sees Soft Halloween Sales, While Nudging Up Outlook

Why Did My Favorite Candy Bar Drop ‘Milk Chocolate’ From the Label?

Starbucks Cafe Sales Stabilize After Year-and-a-Half-Long Slide

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Morning News: October 29, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on October 29th, 2025 at 7:04 am

Why China and Russia Aren’t Scared of the US

South Korea Says Agreed With US on Trade Talks Details

Japanese Executives Called On by Trump Pledge U.S. Investment

Scolded by Trump, Canada’s Prime Minister Turns to Asia for Trade

Senate Rebukes Trump on Brazil Tariffs

U.S. Manufacturing’s Mixed Picture in 4 Charts

Why Geopolitics May Dictate Gold’s Next Move

Dormant Treasuries Volatility Sets Stage for Powell Surprise

What to Watch at the Federal Reserve’s October Meeting

Why Does Everyone Want to Be a Bank Now?

How U.S. Billionaires Stack Up With the Rest of the World

How Affluent Investors Are Using Options Math to Borrow on the Cheap

In Retirement, Do You Prefer Exposure to Dollars or People?

Industry and Self-Reliant Ingenuity Will Create Much Better Schools

Americans Are Getting a Look at Next Year’s ACA Premiums and Many Don’t Like It

Don’t Extend Obamacare Without Pro-Patient Tax Reforms

China Pushes Boundaries With Animal Testing to Win Global Biotech Race

Thermo Fisher Scientific Agrees to Buy Clario Holdings for $8.88 Billion

CVS Boosts 2025 Profit Outlook, Takes $5.7 Billion Charge

Tens of Thousands of White-Collar Jobs Are Disappearing as AI Starts to Bite

UPS Has Cut 48,000 Workers Since Last Year

Why UPS Is Increasingly Turning to Gig Drivers for Deliveries

Nvidia Set to Be First $5 Trillion Company as AI Bets Boom

OpenAI’s Promise to Stay in California Helped Clear the Path for Its IPO

Watch These Five AI Signals Closely This Week

AI Won’t Give American Children the Education They Need

China’s New Coal Language Leaves More Room for Rising Use

Trump Administration Backs Plan for New Nuclear Plants

Automaker Production Stoppages Begin Over Semiconductor Shortage

The Popular 3D-Printed Gun Globalizing the Second Amendment

Paramount Signs Lease at New Jersey Studio Complex

Onitsuka Tiger Sneakers Are Winning Gen Z’s Heart

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CWS Market Review – October 28, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on October 28th, 2025 at 7:47 pm

(This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

The S&P 500 broke out to another all-time high today. The index briefly traded above 6,900 for the first time. The market has closed higher seven times in the last eight sessions.

Shares of Nvidia also closed at a record high today. The company is getting close to a market value of $5 trillion. Kevin Gordon points out that semiconductors have gone from a 2% weighting in the S&P 500 in 2013 to a 14% weighting today.

Today is October 28 and this has been an important day in Wall Street history. That’s true for both the bulls and for the bears. Seventeen years ago today, on October 28, 2008, the S&P 500 soared 10.8%. Investors were anticipating a rate cut from the Federal Reserve. That was the market’s second-best day of the last 90 years. The best day came exactly 15 days earlier.

The Financial Crisis was a hectic time, but it wasn’t the worst. That came 96 years ago today, on October 28, 1929, when the S&P 500 plunged 12.3%. (Technically, it wasn’t the S&P 500 back then.) This was the original Black Monday, and it was the worst day in market history until it was surpassed in 1987 by an even blacker Black Monday on October 19, 1987.

Black Monday from 1987 is still the worst day in market history (so far), but 1929 can say that it stands out because of its back-to-back losses. While the S&P 500 lost 12.3% on the 28th, it lost another 10.2% on Tuesday, the 29th. That works out to a two-day loss of 20.9% which is a little worse than the one-day plunge from 1987 (-20.5%).

Here’s an interesting fact you don’t often see here. By April 10, 1930, the S&P 500 had recovered to 25.92. That marked a 14% gain since October 28. After that, the market continued to fall almost nonstop for the next four years.

I’m happy to say that the stock market is in a much better mood this October. The S&P 500 closed at another all-time high today. On Friday, we got a mostly benign inflation report. I’ll have more on that in a bit. Also, the Federal Reserve began its October meeting today. The policy statement will be out tomorrow afternoon, and we can almost certainly expect another rate cut.

Within the stock market, the High Beta names continue to lead the pack. The gap between High Beta and Low Vol sectors has become quite astonishing. Just when you think it can’t get any wider, it quickly does.

Here’s a look at the High Beta and Low Vol ETFs:

Earnings season is largely going well for Wall Street. So far, 29% of S&P 500 companies have reported; 87% have beaten on EPS and 83% have beaten on revenue. Growth is currently tracking at 9.2%. Twelve companies have issued positive guidance and 11 have issued negative. The forward 12-month P/E ratio is 22.7.

September Inflation Was Tame

On Friday, the government finally decided to release the September CPI report. This happened despite the continuing government shutdown. This wasn’t some big-hearted move by Congress or the president. Instead, the Social Security Administration needs the September CPI data so it can calculate the last month of the fiscal year. That impacts the cost-of-living increases for Social Security payments.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said that consumer prices rose by 0.3% last month. That was 0.1% lower than expected. Over the last year, inflation is running at 3.0%.

The core rate, which excludes food and energy prices, increased by 0.2% last month. That was also 0.1% lower than expected. Over the last year, core inflation is running at 3%.

A 4.1% jump in gasoline prices was the largest contributor to a report that otherwise showed inflation pressures fairly muted. Food prices saw a 0.2% increase. Commodity prices overall rose 0.5%. On an annual basis, energy was up 2.8% and food rose 3.1%.

Within the food index, prices for meat, poultry, fish and eggs surged 5.2% in the past year, while nonalcoholic beverages increased 5.3%. In energy, while prices pushed higher for electricity, up 5.1%, and natural gas, up 11.7%, over the past year, gasoline prices actually fell 0.5% during the period.

Shelter costs, which comprise about one-third of the weighting in the CPI, rose just 0.2% and were up 3.6% from a year ago. Services excluding shelter costs also were 0.2% higher.

New vehicles saw a 0.8% increase, but used car and truck prices fell 0.4%.

The CPI report looks to be the last data we’ll get from the government until the shutdown ends.

The Federal Reserve started its October meeting today. Tomorrow afternoon, the Fed will release its policy statement. It’s all but certain that the Fed will cut rates again. But what happens after that?

That’s still a little cloudy but we’re starting to get some hints. The Fed is likely to cut rates again at its December meeting. After that, the Fed will probably cut rates again in either January or March. That’s still up in the air. There will probably be a few additional rate cuts later in 2026 but it’s hard to say right now. A lot can happen between now and then. Overall, I think President Trump will get the rate cuts he’s looking for.

We’re also going to get a new Chairman of the Federal Reserve in the spring. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that President Trump has narrowed his selection down to five candidates: Fed Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, NEC Director Kevin Hassett, former Governor Kevin Warsh and BlackRock executive Rick Rieder. Of those names, Hassett is probably the frontrunner.

American Water Announces Major Deal

On Monday, one of our Buy List stocks announced a major deal. American Water Works (AWK) said it’s merging with Essential Utilities (WTRG) in an all-stock deal. The combined company will be worth about $40 billion.

The boards of both companies have unanimously approved the deal. The combined company will continue to use the name “American Water.”

According to the deal, Essential shareholders will get 0.305 shares of AWK for each share of WTRG they own. That values Essential at a 10% premium from where the stock had been. American Water has increased its dividend for 17 years in a row.

American Water shareholders will own about 69% of the company and Essential shareholders will own about 31%. American Water said it expects to maintain its long-term rate growth target of 7% to 9%.

The companies said the deal creates a more resilient utility with improved credit quality and a strong balance sheet. The companies are aiming to close the deal by Q1 of 2027. There are, of course, regulatory approvals that AWK must get for the deal to go forward.

American Water will report its Q3 earnings tomorrow before the opening bell. Wall Street expects Q3 earnings of $1.88 per share.

That’s all for now. Expect more earnings this week and next. We’ll also have the Fed’s decision tomorrow afternoon. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

– Eddy

Morning News: October 28, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on October 28th, 2025 at 7:03 am

Argentina’s Slums Abandoned Peronism—and Handed Milei the Win

China Vows Significant Boost to Consumption Share of Economy

Trump’s China Deal May Avert a Crisis of His Own Making

Resolving Trade Agreements Isn’t the Only China-Related Issue

Trump’s Big Tariff Task in Asia Is to Close the Deal

Trump Hails Ally Japan, Offers Takaichi ‘Anything You Want’

With Trump, Flattery Will Get Takaichi Everything

US to Continue Dominating Global Investment Flows, Finance Executives Say

Fed’s Policy Path Looks More Treacherous as Shutdown Delays Critical Data

Dudley: The Fed’s $6 Trillion Balance Sheet Is About Right

The Fed Should Pause in Cutting Interest Rates

Would-Be Fed Appointees Vivify the Independence Myth

How Bad Is Finance’s Cockroach Problem? We Are About to Find Out.

Citi’s Fraser Doesn’t Want Private Credit ‘Tug of War’

Nelson Peltz’s Lowball Bid for Janus Henderson Is Pretty Cheeky

Evercore’s Rainmaker Is Driving PE’s $200 Billion Bright Spot

Barclays to Buy U.S. Lending Startup Best Egg for $800 Million

PayPal Raises Earnings Guidance After Announcing OpenAI Deal

This Is How the AI Stock Boom Plays Out

Amazon to Cut 14,000 Jobs as CEO Jassy Taps AI to Reduce Costs

Amazon’s Slower Growth in AI Cloud Business May Not Be Fatal Flaw

Europe’s Solar Power Surge Puts Unprecedented Strain on Its Grid

Bill Gates Calls Out ‘Doomsday’ View of Climate Change in Memo

Warner Brothers Sale Could Redefine the Future of Streaming Competition

Sherwin-Williams Beats as Caution Pays Amid Macro Weakness

UPS Stuns Wall Street With Strong Profit and 34,000 Job Cuts

The Lengths Americans Are Willing to Go to Make Every Penny Count

Levi’s Rolls Out New Premium Denim, but Aims to Keep Appealing to Budget Shoppers

Why Faith-Based Brands Prosper In Secular Markets

How KFC Lost Fast Food’s Chicken Crown—and How It Plans to Win It Back

Eli Lilly Makes Billions of Weight-Loss Pills Before US Approval

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Morning News: October 27, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on October 27th, 2025 at 7:05 am

Argentina Bonds Surge After Milei Landslide Win

Japan Deals With the Price of Playing to Trump: $550 Billion

Trump Says He Won’t Resume Canada Trade Talks ‘For a While’

As This President Tours Asia, Democracy’s Ideals Aren’t on the Agenda

Latest US-China Trade Truce Leaves Fundamental Issues Unresolved

The ‘Sleeper Issue’ at the Heart of Trump’s Trade War on China

Amazon Settlement Signals Broad Antitrust Battle for Trump

Strains in Short-Term Markets Raise Urgency of Fed’s Balance Sheet Debate

Jerome Powell’s ‘We Could Have Stopped Sooner’ Isn’t Good Enough

Bessent Names Fed Chair Finalists Ahead of Year-End Decision

Huntington Reaches $7.4 Billion Deal to Buy Cadence Bank

Deutsche Bank’s DWS Joins Rivals in Setting Up Abu Dhabi Office

Ten Things That Warren Buffet Does Differently

Private Jets and Car Washes Are the Latest Tax Shields for the Ultrarich

See How the Average U.S. Worker Has Changed Over 250 Years

‘No Idea How Long People Can Hold Out’: Federal Workers Feel Brunt of Shutdown

More Big Companies Bet They Can Still Grow Without Hiring

The Tyranny of the Low-Quality Job

Boeing Defense Workers Reject Latest Contract

French Fund Renews Backing for World’s Largest Green Steel Plant

America’s Hottest New Investment: Rare-Earth Companies

The US Shouldn’t Need Another Warning on Rare Earths

How Trump Pressures the World Into Burning More Oil and Gas

Saudi Arabia, Rich With Oil, Wants to Be Known as the A.I. Exporter

Big Tech Makes Cal State Its A.I. Training Ground

AI Bubble? The Real Danger Is Tight Credit Spreads

Microsoft Plays ‘Me Too’ Again to OpenAI on AI Browser

Ford’s F-150 Chokepoint Shows the Limits of the Trade War

Cigna Will End Drug Rebates in Many Private Health Plans in 2027

‘Yellowstone’ Creator Taylor Sheridan to Leave Paramount for NBCUniversal

Condé Nast’s Strategy for Media’s New Normal: Glam Events and Paywalls

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Morning News: October 24, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on October 24th, 2025 at 7:02 am

India’s Most Valuable Export: Tens of Millions of Workers

Has Argentina Really Changed? Soon, We Will Find Out

Ranchers are Furious About Trump’s Plan to Lower Beef Prices

Argentine Beef Imports Would Betray US Ranchers

Russia’s Oil Business Takes a Hit From Fight Between Top Traders

No Matter What, China’s “Rare Earths” Will Flow to the United States

Gold’s Next Move May Be Determined by Latecomers to Rally

Trump Terminates Trade Talks With Canada Over Reagan Tariff Ad

Trump Is Turning the White House Into a Golden Goose

American ‘State Capitalism’ Is Destined for Failure

Mr. President, Tear Down These Economic Distortions!

Fed’s Portfolio Unwind Gains Urgency as Markets Flash Warnings

Forget Tax Brackets, the IRS Owes Us Tax Clarity

JPMorgan to Allow Bitcoin and Ether as Collateral in Crypto Push

NatWest Profit Jumps as It Upgrades 2025 Guidance on Loan Growth

Distant ICE Detention Centers Bring Money—and Anger—to an Alaska Native Community

Fighting Real Estate Fraud to Protect the American Dream

Companies Have Shielded Buyers From Tariffs. But Not for Long.

Military Tech Companies, Long Snubbed in Europe, Are Having a Moment

VC Firms Lean on AI for More Than Just Returns

The Dark Side of the AI Boom Is It’s Masking Weak Investment

With ‘Vibecoding,’ A.I. Can Help Anyone Build an App

Intel Surges as First Earnings Report Since U.S. Investment Shows Momentum

Meta Layoffs Included Employees Who Monitored Risks to User Privacy

Critical Auto-Aluminum Supplier Says Fire-Damaged Plant Will Restart This Year

Ford Profit More Than Doubles on Growth in Sales of Pickups, SUVs

Rivian Lays Off More Than 600 Workers Amid EV Pullback

Alaska Airlines Works to Restore Operations After Tech Outage Grounds Flights

Smart Beds Helped Them Sleep on a Cloud. Then the Cloud Crashed.

Boo! Startling Flavors and High Prices Lurk in the Trick-or-Treat Bag.

Chinese Caviar and Foie Gras Shake Up Global Gourmet Dining

Hollywood Weeps as Warner Bros. Hangs a Sale Sign

Chick-fil-A Tycoon’s Movie Studio Swaps ‘Spider-Man’ for Influencers

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Morning News: October 23, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on October 23rd, 2025 at 7:05 am

Turkey’s Central Bank Slows Pace of Interest-Rate Cuts After Inflation Uptick

Oil Prices Dropped 18%, Helping Drivers, but Squeezing the Industry

Oil Price Jumps on Trump’s Russia Sanctions

Russians Awake to Trump’s New Oil Sanctions and Largely Shrug

Trump’s New Sanctions on Russian Oil Threaten to Push Barrels Off Market

Rosneft German Unit May Be Cut Off From Customers Amid Sanctions

How China Raced Ahead of the U.S. on Nuclear Power

We Finally Know How to Get the One Renewable Energy Source Loved by Both Parties

Addressing the Gold Price From An Iran/China Barter Angle

QE Revisionism in a World Drowning in Debt

Wall Street Bonuses Expected to Hit Record as Bank Profits Surge

‘I, Sharpie’ As An Antidote to ‘I, Pencil’ Is Truly Ridiculous

The Disaster Industrial Complex Is Driving US Economic Growth

Trump Bypasses Shutdown Fight to Focus on Ceasefires, Ballroom

Trump Wants the American People to Pay Him $230 Million

The US Is Courting Disaster in Venezuela

America’s Two-Tier Racial System Is Making a Comeback

Chicago Needs to Fix Its Spending Problem

The China and U.S. Birthrate “Crisis” Is Much Ado About Nothing

China’s Consumers Are in a Years-Long Funk. Will Anything Get Them to Spend?

China Vows to Double Down on Tech Self-Reliance as U.S. Rivalry Heats Up

DeepSeek’s Push Into Africa Reveals China’s AI Power Grab

Trump Administration in Talks to Take Equity Stakes in Quantum-Computing Firms

Meta Investors Watch Zuckerberg Keep His Promise of Big AI Spending

Nokia Reports Sharp Rise in Demand From AI and Cloud Customers

Hoping to Grow in Europe, but Bogged Down by Red Tape

Tesla Profit Plunges as Musk Turns Focus to ‘Robot Army’

Elon Musk Raises the Stakes for Vote on His Pay

Three Offers in One Month: Paramount’s Secret Pursuit of Warner Bros. Discovery

Drug With a 30-Year Monopoly Is Target of State-Level Push to Curb Prices

ChatGPT Is a Bad Personal Shopper — But It’s Learning

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Morning News: October 22, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on October 22nd, 2025 at 7:08 am

China’s $1 Billion of Daily US Exports Show Xi’s Bargaining Power

EU Prepares Trade Options to Counter China Rare Earth Curbs

Citi Predicts Brazil’s Four-Year IPO Drought Will End in 2026

Canada Inflation Accelerates to Seven-Month High of 2.4% in September

World Falling Short on Methane Pledge, U.N. Report Finds

Disaster Spending Has Become an $8 Trillion Engine for US Growth

US Government Shutdown Is Now Second Longest in History

More Tax Collection Won’t Reduce the Debt, It Will Expand It

The White House Didn’t Need a Mar-a-Lago Makeover

Dudley: The Fed Might Be More Dovish Than Powell Thinks

Fed Floats Plan With Much Smaller Capital Hikes for Big Banks

Why Raphael Bostic Could Be Trump’s Next Federal Reserve Target

Gold Extends Rout in Volatile Pullback From Record Price Surge

Crypto Prime Broker FalconX to Acquire ETP Issuer 21shares

Surrogacy Is a Multibillion-Dollar Business. Sometimes the Money Goes Missing.

Workers and Employers Face Higher Health Insurance Costs

The Health Insurance Prior Authorization Memo That You Helped Write

Silicon Valley Has China Envy, and That Reveals a Lot About America

China’s Phone Makers Are Chasing Xiaomi, Not Apple

OpenAI’s ‘Vibe Lifing’ Browser Won’t Hurt Google

Anthropic, Google in Talks on Multibillion-Dollar Cloud Deal

Gas-Powered Cars Would Have Crushed EVs In the ’80s and ’90s

Cable Giant Charter Lays Off 1,200 Workers

David Zaslav’s Future Hangs in Balance as Warner Goes Up for Sale

Tariffs Are Coming for Mattel’s Barbie This Christmas

The Bankruptcy Court Where People Can’t Stop Talking About Piercing Their Ears

Stitch Fix’s Growth Plan: More Quality Customers, Not Just More Shoppers

A Buzzy Embroidery Shop Manifests a Dream Endorsement

Beyond Meat Shares Surge, Extending Rally to Almost 1,300%

Why Everything From Perfume to Soap Smells Like Food Now

Travis Kelce Teams Up With Investor for Activist Campaign at Six Flags

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CWS Market Review – October 21, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on October 21st, 2025 at 6:32 pm

(This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

The S&P 500 closed higher today for the third up day in a row, although it was a tiny gain today (+0.0033%). The index is now within striking distance of its all-time high close from almost two weeks ago. I’ve been impressed by how easily the market can move past troubling news.

Right now, Wall Street is focused on earnings. This is the time of year when we learn which companies have been doing well and which have not. Companies that fall short of expectations can expect to be punished by the market gods.

Earnings season is moving into high gear. We already have some early numbers, but I caution you not to read too much into such a small sample size.

So far, 78 companies in the S&P 500 have reported their Q3 numbers. Of those, 87.2% have beaten expectations. The long-term average “beat rate” is 67%. (That’s correct. On Wall Street, you’re expected to beat expectations.)

For the quarter, earnings are expected to grow by 9.2%. In fact, if you don’t count the energy sector, then earnings are expected to be up by 10.1%. The tech sector is expected to have earnings growth of 22.2%.

We had several more earnings reports today. Coca-Cola (KO), for example, had a good report. It beat on sales and earnings but the soft drink company said that sales may be soft going forward. In particular, Coke said that lower-income folks are buying less soda. The good news is that Coke stuck by its full-year forecast.

Coke is a bluechip as is 3M (MMM). The Post-It notes company said this morning that it made $2.19 per share which beat estimates of $2.07 per share. Sales rose 3.5% to $6.52 billion. Wall Street had been expecting $6.25 billion.

The best news is that 3M boosted guidance. For this year, 3M sees earnings coming in between $7.95 and $8.05 per share. The previous range was $7.75 to $8 per share.

Danaher (DHR), a long-time favorite of ours, reported good news. Wall Street had been expecting earnings of $1.72 per share. Instead, Danaher said it made $1.89 per share. Sales rose to $6.05 billion which was $50 million more than Wall Street had expected. Danaher also reiterated its full-year range of $7.70 to $7.80 per share.

Shares of Danaher got a nice lift in today’s trading, which also helped Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO), a competitor which is also one of our Buy List stocks. TMO is due to report tomorrow.

But the biggest surprise may be General Motors (GM). The stock soared on its results.

The carmaker said it made $2.80 per share which was well above estimates of $2.31 per share. Quarterly revenue fell a bit to $48.59 billion. Wall Street had been expecting $45.27 billion.

GM raised its earnings guidance to a range of $9.75 to $10.50 per share from the earlier range of $8.25 to $10.00 per share.

After the closing bell today, Netflix (NFLX) reported a big earnings miss. The company made $5.87 per share. That’s $1.10 below estimates. For Q4, NFLX sees earnings of $5.45 per share which was one penny better than estimates.

How about Beyond Meat (BYND)? You might think the company has had a rough time. After all, its stock fell from a peak of $239 per share six years ago to 50 cents last week. But the stock has soared in recent days thanks to its inclusion in the Roundhill Meme Stock ETF (MEME). The stock gained 146% today.

Over the summer, I told you about Mueller Industries (MLI), which is one of our Buy List stocks. I like Mueller a lot. It’s a well-run mid-cap that’s largely overlooked by Wall Street. The stock is up over 30% this year.

Mueller makes and sells copper, brass, and aluminum products. The company operates through three segments: Piping Systems, Industrial Metals, and Climate. You may have noticed that copper prices are soaring and much of the reason is our tariff policy. Since early 1992, the stock is up by 40,000% yet only one analyst follows it.

For Q2, Mueller’s net income was $1.96 per share. That’s compared with $1.41 per share for the same quarter one year ago. The lone analyst had been expecting Q2 earnings of $1.62 per share. Mueller’s net cash generated from operations was $190.6 million.

This morning, Mueller reported Q3 earnings of $1.88 per share. That’s up from $1.48 per share one year ago. Copper averaged $4.83 per pound during the quarter, which is a 14.3% increase over last year. The company has no debt and a cash position of $1.3 billion.

Mueller’s CEO said, “Looking forward, we are highly optimistic about our business. Our plants operate most effectively when fully loaded. Given our additional capacity, we therefore expect to benefit from even greater production efficiencies when demand rebounds.”

MLI rallied over 4% today. I’ll repeat what I said this summer. If business continues to go well at Mueller, then I think the company can earn $6 per share this year and perhaps $6.50 per share next year. If that’s correct, then the company is attractively valued. The stock reached a new all-time high today.

The prices for gold and silver plunged today. In fact, it was one of the worst daily losses for the metals in years. Silver futures lost more than 7% today.

Both metals have rallied spectacularly in recent weeks. Every pullback turned into a buying opportunity. Could this one be different?

In this week’s issue, I want to talk more about silver. Last week, the price for silver got above $54 per ounce. That’s a market gain of more than 85% on the year. The metal passed its all-time high reach more than 35 years ago.

In 1979-80, there was a furious rally in silver when two Texas brothers tried to buy all the silver in the world. What’s even crazier is that they nearly got away with it.

When Nelson Bunker Hunt and Herbert Hunt started their plan, silver was around $6 per ounce. By early 1980, it got to $50 per ounce. That’s close to $200 adjusted for inflation. Time Magazine estimated they made between $2 billion and $4 billion in just nine months. To pull this off, they had to borrow enormous amounts of money. At one point, it was estimated that they held one-third of the world’s deliverable silver. Tiffany took out a full-page article to denounce them.

The Hunt brothers were the sons of the legendary oilman, Haroldson Lafayette “H.L” Hunt, Jr. Hunt the senior wrote a novel based on his idea of a fascist utopia called Alpaca. I remember one person calling it “1984, but Big Brother is the good guy.”

Not all the Hunts were so eccentric. Lamar Hunt was one of the most influential people in the development of modern football. He was the one who came up with the name “Super Bowl.” To this day, the winner of the AFC championship game is awarded the Lamar Hunt Trophy.

The Hunts were convinced that the Establishment was out to crush them, and they were pretty much right. The COMEX changed the margin requirement which forced the brothers to put up much more collateral.

(By the way, one of my first jobs in this industry was making margin calls. That’s not a metaphor. I had to actually call people to tell them they had to sell or put up more money.)

On March 27, 1980, the bottom fell out of the silver market. In one day, silver dropped by 50%. This is now known as “Silver Thursday.” In one day, the Hunts lost $1.7 billion. The brothers had to put up more money, but they couldn’t reach their margin requirement. The government was worried that Wall Street banks were so much in debt to the Hunts that if the Hunts went under, so would the banks. A silver panic could start a banking panic.

The Hunts had finally been broken. By 1982, silver was going for less than $5 per ounce. They later filed for Chapter 11. The brothers eventually become the models for brothers Randolph and Mortimer Duke in the movie Trading Places.

That’s all for now. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

– Eddy