Morning News: July 23, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on July 23rd, 2025 at 7:04 am

Tariff Risk Drives Another Round of Asia Forecast Downgrades

U.S. and Japan Reach Trade Deal

Behind Japan’s Trade Deal: 8 Rounds of Talks and ‘Hurrying Slowly’

Indonesia to Remove Numerous Trade Barriers, White House Says

EU Readies €100 Billion No-Deal Plan to Match US 30% Tariff

As the Dollar Slides, the Euro Is Picking Up Speed

The US Can Survive Tariffs. That Doesn’t Mean They’re Worth It.

Bitcoin in Your 401(k)? That’s Not a Risk I Would Take

What Is Tokenization and Is It Crypto’s Next Big Thing?

The U.S. Needed the CLARITY Act To End Crypto Regulatory Uncertainty

At the Fed’s Banking Conference, Sam Altman, Capital Rules and Avoiding the Powell Drama

Fed Legend Paul Volcker Would Shrug Over This Attack

Treasury, IRS Face Staff Cuts, Tight Deadlines With Roll Out of New Trump Tax Breaks

GoPro, Krispy Kreme Surge as Markets Abuzz About Meme Stocks

Dimon’s Success Creates Headaches for JPMorgan

Citigroup Expands Private-Company Research, Joining JPMorgan

Soaring Wealth Inequality Is the Greatest Retirement Gift of All

Biggest US Power Grid Auction Prices Rise by 22% to New Heights

U.S. Mid-Atlantic Factory Activity Contracts at Fastest Rate This Year

Can a Steel Boom Revive This Rural American County?

How China Came to Rule the World of Rare Earth Elements

Hackers Hit US Nuclear Body as Microsoft Warns of China Link

Chinese Hackers Are Exploiting Flaws in Widely Used Software, Microsoft Says

OpenAI’s Data Center Ambitions Collide with Reality

AT&T Adds Wireless and Home-Internet Subscribers, Accelerates Fiber Build-Out

Mike Lynch’s Estate Ordered to Pay Hewlett Packard $945 Million

Tesla’s Darkening Outlook to Test Robotaxi Vision Pushed by Musk

Trump Expects $20 Million More in Ad Dollars From ‘60 Minutes’ Settlement

Coke’s New Cane-Sweetened Soda Risks Upending US Sugar Supplies

Hershey Lifts Candy Prices, Citing High Cocoa Costs

With Labubus and a Cat Cafe, a Shopping Mall Thrives in New York City

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CWS Market Review – July 22, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on July 22nd, 2025 at 8:02 pm

(This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

Q2 Earnings Seasons Is Looking Good So Far

The stock market closed at yet another all-time high on Tuesday. Today’s market was noteworthy because it was a “broader” rally. By that, I mean that more stocks are jumping in on the fun. It’s not just a “tech only” rally.

I like to look at the relationship between the S&P 500 High Beta ETF (SPHB) and the Low Volatility ETF (SPLV). This is an easy way to read the market’s mind.

Since the market low in April, High Beta, meaning the riskier stocks, are up more than 52% while Low Volatility is just 9%. Today, High Beta was flat while Low Vol was up 1.4%. I’d like to see more of that kind of action.

We have some early numbers for this earnings season, and it’s looking quite good. So far, 12% of companies in the S&P 500 have reported Q2 earnings. Of those, 83% have beaten earnings. That’s higher than the 5- and 10-year averages.

The S&P 500 is on track to deliver Q2 earnings growth of 5.6%. That would be the slowest growth since Q4 2023. So far, 83% of companies that have reported have beaten on revenues. Bear in mind that on Wall Street, you’re expected to beat expectations.

The S&P 500 is currently trading at 22 times forward earnings. That’s high but not unreasonable. There are, however, signs of market excess. For example, the meme stock brigades are back. Thanks to a cheering section at Reddit, shares of Opendoor Technologies (OPEN) have taken center stage. Last Monday, OPEN was traded as low as 77 cents per share. Yesterday, OPEN peaked at $4.97 per share.

Trading volume for the stock has surged from 50,000 or so each day to over 500,000,000 per day. That’s an increase of 10,000-fold in just a few days. I think I have a feeling for how this will end.

Now Kohl’s’s (KSS) has been picked up by the day-trading frenzy. I’m not sure how long this will last. About half of Kohl’s outstanding shares available for trading are shorted. At one point today, the stock was up more than 100%. By the closing bell, KSS settled for a gain of 37%. (It’s just a department store!)

Truthfully, these meme stocks are closer to gambling than true investing. They certainly can be fun games to play, but it really helps if you’re the first one out the door.

There were several prominent earnings reports today. GM (GM) beat earnings and reiterated its guidance but the stock fell 8% after the carmaker said that it’s concerned about tariffs hurting sales. GM’s core profit fell 31.6% to $3.04 billion.

Sherwin-Williams (SHW), a former Buy List stock, had a disappointing earnings report. For Q2, the paint people made $3.38 per share. That was 42 cents below expectations. The stock reversed its earlier losses and only closed down modestly.

Shares of Northrop Grumman (NOC) reached a new high. The stock was up over 9% today. The company raised its guidance.

Labcorp (LH) also got a nice 3.7% lift today. Philip Morris (PM) missed its revenue estimates and the shares got dinged 8.4% today. The stock yields close to 3%. Mettler-Toledo (MTD) also had a good day.

There are going to be a lot more earnings reports this week.

How the Market Behaves at a New High

The S&P 500 hit another all-time high yesterday. This week, I wanted to take a closer look at how the stock market has historically behaved when it’s at an all-time high. Perhaps counterintuitively, the stock market has done quite well off its all-time high. You might be inclined to think that the all-time high is the worst time, but the evidence says otherwise.

I took all the S&P 500 daily closes going back to 1960. Since then, there have been about 16,500 trading days. Of those, the index hit an all-time high on nearly 1,200 days or about 7.3% of the time.

The day following an all-time high close, the stock market has gained a total of 75%. Annualized, that works out to 12.8%. The rest of the time, when the market’s not at an all-time high, the annualized gain is just 7%. That’s quite a big difference.

From my experience, the worst market days don’t come off peaks. Instead, the market gradually crumbles off its peak, and then the big drop happens.

I also found that even if the S&P 500 closes within 10% of a new high, but not at a new high, then the market averages an annualized gain of 7.9%.

As well as the stock market has done when it’s at a new high, what’s also impressive is how stable the market has been at all-time highs. Since 1960, there have been only three times when the market has gained more than 2% in a single day off an all-time high. Interestingly, all three came in the 1990s.

Coming off an all-time high, the market has gained more than 1% only 5.4% of the time. Normally, 1% up days come more than 7.2% of the time. The lesson is that calm markets tend to be good markets, and markets that are rising tend to keep on rising.

Too often, investors feel that strong markets have given them unwarranted gains and that they have to sell out before the correction comes. The problem is that you never know when it will come. Just look at this year when we had a nasty drop followed by a pretty impressive rally.

Peter Lynch famously said, “Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.”

This is another example that good investing really comes down to patience.

Mueller Industries Delivers Solid Earnings

This morning, we got a nice earnings report from Mueller Industries (MLI), which is one of our Buy List stocks. I like Mueller a lot. It’s a well-run mid-cap that’s largely overlooked by Wall Street.

I’m always surprised at how Wall Street can completely ignore such good businesses. Only one analyst follows MLI despite it being a big winner for many years and having a market value of $10 billion. Since early 1992, the stock is up by 40,000%.

So what does Mueller do? The company makes and sells copper, brass, and aluminum products. The company operates through three segments: Piping Systems, Industrial Metals, and Climate. You may have noticed that copper prices are soaring and much of the reason is our tariff policy.

After some adjustments, MLI’s Q2 net income was $1.96 per share. That’s compared with $1.41 per share for the same quarter one year ago. The lone analyst had been expecting Q2 earnings of $1.62 per share. Mueller’s net cash generated from operations was $190.6 million. MLI’s cash balance net of debt was $1 billion at quarter end, and the current ratio is strong at 4.9 to 1.

CEO Greg Christopher, said, “Excluding the recovery reported thus far on our tornado related insurance claim, we delivered a record quarter. Tremendous credit goes to our manufacturing operations and commercial teams for their outstanding execution and focus amidst complex market conditions. We are particularly pleased to see the positive progress and contributions made by Nehring and EPC, our 2024 acquisitions, and look forward to their continued improvement.”

If business continues to go well at Mueller, then I think the company can earn $6 per share this year and perhaps $6.50 per share next year. If that’s correct, then the company is attractively valued. Over the last five weeks, the shares are up 18%.

The Federal Reserve meets again next week. Don’t expect any change to interest rates this time, but the odds of a rate cut before the end of the year are high. Also, the Q2 GDP report will be out on Wednesday which is the same as the Fed policy statement. That’s all for now. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

– Eddy

P.S. I’m currently reading “The Wealth Ladder: Proven Strategies for Every Step of Your Financial Life” by Nick Maggiulli. In the book, Nick systematically breaks down how to build wealth. It’s one of those books where I find myself nodding along with each page. Check it out.

Morning News: July 22, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on July 22nd, 2025 at 7:05 am

Trump Gets a US Toehold in Congo’s Mines as Peace Deal Nears

China’s Problem With Competition: There’s Too Much of It

EU Officials Head to China and Japan Expecting Mixed Results

The Global Economy Is Powering Through a Historic Increase in Tariffs

Thai Cabinet Names New Central Bank Chief

U.S. Leading Indicators Show Economic Clouds Gathering

Treasuries Slip With Fed’s Powell Set to Speak on Regulation

Michelle Bowman’s Reforms Will Help Reverse Dodd-Frank Damage

US Exchanges Set to Reap Windfall as Market Volatility Fuels Trading Rush

Will Payment Stablecoins Benefit From Federal Deposit Insurance?

‘Black Holes for Capital Gains’: New Tax Trick Takes Off in ETFs

JPMorgan Closes $210 Million Carbon Loan to Draw New Investors

BlackRock Restricts Use of Company Devices for China Travel

NIH Budget Cuts Are a Setback for American Science

Without Billionaires, There Would Be No Medicare and No Debt

Singapore’s App-Led Car Sharing Offers Relief From Stratospheric Cost

Florida’s High-Speed Rail Rattles Investors, Defying Its Promise

Northrop Grumman Lifts Profit Outlook on Defense Demand

GM Profit Falls as Trump Tariffs Add $1.1 Billion in Costs

Google Seeks Licensing Talks With News Groups, Following AI Rivals

Google A.I. System Wins Gold Medal in International Math Olympiad

Microsoft Rushes to Stop Hackers from Wreaking Global Havoc

The Astronomer CEO’s Coldplay Moment Is a Textbook Fiasco

Silicon Valley’s Favorite Podcast Is Now Hot in Washington Too

How Does This Podcast Star Make $20 Million a Year?

L.A. Times Owner Says He Will Take Newspaper Public in Next Year

Universal Music Group Files for U.S. Public Offering

US Liquor Sales Plunge in Canada Amid Tariff Spat, Hurting Whole Market

Coca-Cola Earnings Beat Estimates as Strong Demand in Europe Helps Offset Weakness Elsewhere

Kraft Heinz Failure Is a Cautionary Tale for Many M&A Deals

The Hottest New Cafe Is in Someone’s Living Room

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Morning News: July 21, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on July 21st, 2025 at 7:04 am

Japan’s Ishiba Tries to Buy Time After Historic Election Setback

Yen Bounces as Japan PM Hangs On

A Massive Dam in Tibet Will Do More for China’s GDP Than for Its Power Supplies

Zambia Plans $1.1 Billion Oil Refinery With Fujian Xiang Xin

China’s Moves Against 3 Foreigners Stoke Anxiety

EU Is Racing to Secure US Trade Deal and Preparing for Worst

Trump’s Tariffs Key to Whether Anticipated ECB Hold Is an End Or A Pause

U.S. Coffee Drinkers and Businesses Will Pay the Price for Trump’s Brazil Tariffs

The U.S. Economy Is Regaining Its Swagger

Trump Threats Send Wall Street Hunting for Perfect Powell Hedge

Kevin Hassett Wants To Be Fed Chairman. That’s What’s So Dangerous

How Bessent Made the Case to Trump Against Firing Fed Chair Powell

Applying the ‘Bedford Falls Rule’ to the Federal Reserve

S&P 500 Signals the US Stock Rally Momentum is Waning

Republicans Fall Into the Same Inflation Trap as Democrats

Blank-Check Company Strikes Cryptocurrency Deal

After Pledging to Keep Prices Low, Amazon Hiked Them on Hundreds of Essentials

What Chip-Stock Investors Are Missing About Tariffs

Trump Can’t Put the Epstein Genie Back in the Bottle

Hiding Weather Data Harms More Than Hurricane Forecasts

Harvard Faculty Who Fear School’s Destruction Urge Trump Deal

RFK Jr. Is Making America Sick Again. Republicans Need a Cure

Elon Musk’s Empire Is Creaking Under the Strain of Elon Musk

Battery Makers in Slumping EV Business Find Lifeline Elsewhere

Jeep Maker Stellantis Warns of a Shock $2.7 Billion Loss as Tariffs Bite

GE Vernova Buying AI Company for Utilities to Check Grid Damage

Verizon’s Postpaid Phone Losses Continue, Full-Year Forecast Improves

Canceling ‘The Late Show’ Is Bad News for Late-Night TV, Not for Stephen Colbert

NJ and NYC Expect $3.3 Billion Boost From Hosting World Cup

Kraft Heinz Seeks to Revive Old Brands by Undoing 2015 Mega-Merger

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Morning News: July 18, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on July 18th, 2025 at 7:03 am

One of These BRICS Is Not Like the Others

Before Trump, Indonesia Had Another Trade Headache: China

The State Department Upheaval Makes China Great Again

ICE Deportation Plans Betray a Post-Holocaust Promise

Japan Inflation Eases, But BOJ Still Faces Policy Challenges

Moody’s Raises Argentina’s Rating On Macroeconomic Reforms

Tariffs on Russia Could Hurt Wary U.S. Farmers

Economists’ Outlook: Lower Recession Risk, More Growth

Crypto Market Value Tops $4 Trillion as Stablecoin Bill Passes

Regulating Stablecoins Will Take a Genius Act, and This Isn’t It

‘Even God Would Get Fired.’ The Lessons This Fund Manager Is Taking from Stock-Market Drawdowns and Recoveries.

Don’t Make a Dumb Trade War Any Dumber

Does Trump Have the Authority to Fire Fed Chair Powell?

What Happens If Trump Fires Powell? Bad Things

Will Investors Ever Believe Trump’s Threats Against Powell?

The Global Risks That Come With the Loss of an Independent Fed

Waller Says Fed Should Cut Rates Now With Labor Market on Edge

Wells Fargo Exit Ban Revives Fears About Doing Business in China

Amex Beats Estimates as Premium Clients Keep Spending on Cards

Chevron Moves Forward With Megadeal for Hess After Winning Exxon Arbitration

Asia’s Gas Buying Spree Is Wilting in the Summer Heat

The Push to Make Tiny Homes in Backyards Easier to Finance

Hot Dogs for Insomnia? A Kennedy Aide’s Start-Up Can Get You a Tax Break.

Health Insurers Are Denying More Drug Claims, Data Shows

Nvidia CEO Huang Emerges as Reluctant Emissary for US-China

Meta Says It Won’t Sign EU’s AI Code, Calling It Overreach

Netflix Raises Revenue, Margin Forecasts After Strong Second Quarter

A Family Feud Is Rocking One of the World’s Richest Hotel Dynasties

CBS Canceling ‘Late Show With Stephen Colbert’ After Next Season

Conservatives Get the PBS and NPR Cuts They’ve Wanted for Decades

Where Congress’s Cuts Threaten Access to PBS and NPR

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Morning News: July 17, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on July 17th, 2025 at 7:04 am

This New Missile-Defense System Is Challenging the Patriot

China Threatens to Block Panama Ports Deal Unless Its Shipping Giant Is Part of It

Has Japan’s ‘Rice Minister’ Brought Down Prices Enough to Save His Party?

European Real Estate Stuck in ‘Zombieland’ as Recovery Proves Elusive

Russian Banks Have Discussed Seeking Bailouts Within Next Year

Trump Eyes Tariff Rate of 10% or 15% for More Than 150 Countries

The White House’s Assault on the Fed Is Self-Defeating

Trump Wants Lower Rates. Firing Powell Could Push Them Higher.

Fed Independence Is a ‘Myth,’ JPMorgan’s Benhamou Says

Treasury Yields are Flat as Investors Digest Trump-Powell Fight

Excessive Federal Taxes Foist California and New York Onto All of the U.S.

The Bond Market Won’t Let America Be Irresponsible Forever

It Was Supposed to Be ‘Crypto Week’ in Congress. Then It Unraveled.

Wall St. Firms Are Buying Utilities to Tap Into the A.I. Boom

Trump’s U-Turn on Nvidia Spurs Talk of Grand Bargain With China

Taiwan Semi Profit Booms by 61%, Raises Sales View as Nvidia Buoys Demand

Why FHFA Meddling In Credit Score Reporting Is Unwarranted

Trying to Pay for College? Your Options Just Got Worse

PBS, NPR Set to Lose Federal Funding as Senate Passes DOGE Cuts

These US Sites Are ‘Prime Real Estate’ for the Next Nuclear Reactors

How to Fight Against Trump’s Attack on Clean Energy

GE Aerospace Raises Full-Year Guidance on Aviation Rebound

Prologis Ramps Up Plans for New Warehouse Construction

Are Diamonds Even a Luxury Anymore? De Beers Reckons With Price Plunge

Trump Says Coca-Cola to Use Cane Sugar in Coke

They Grew Up on Mexican Coke. Trump’s Cane Sugar Plan Makes Them Uneasy.

PepsiCo Earnings Beat Estimates Even as U.S. Demand Falls

Your Morning Coffee, in a Bucket

Liquid Death Expands Into Energy Drinks—Easy on the Octane

Canadian Retailer Abandons Its Quest for 7-Eleven

‘Who Killed Love?’ A Video Game Plays to Male Resentment in China.

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Morning News: July 16, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on July 16th, 2025 at 7:05 am

Saudi Arabia Faces Decision on Oil Output Cuts After June’s Overproduction

Indonesia’s Central Bank Cuts Rates to Bolster Economy

U.K. Inflation Heats Up as Bank of England Stays Cautious on New Rate Cuts

EU Exports to U.S. Cool as Trans-Atlantic Trade Faces Tariff Test

Euro to Rise to $1.23 by Mid-2026 as Investors Switch From Dollars, Says UBS

Trump’s ‘Sheriffs’ Can’t Keep the Peace With China

Trump Says Drug Tariffs Probable by Aug. 1, Downplays More Deals

With Tariffs, Why the Focus On Price and Taxation?

Forget TACO. Trump Is Winning His Trade War.

Despite Dire Warnings, the Economy Is Holding Up. Can That Last?

Trump Effect Starts to Show Up in Economy

America’s Anti-Immigrant Fever Is Starting to Break

Never Fully Beaten, Inflation Is Coming Back to Life

Dimon Defends Fed Independence After Trump Attacks

Hassett Grabs Pole Position in Race to Be Trump’s New Fed Chair

The FICO Monopoly Is Living on Borrowed Time

White House Readies Order to Bring Private Equity to 401(k)s

PCAOB Chair Erica Williams to Resign at Request of SEC Chairman

Goldman Posts Best Stock-Trading Quarter in Wall Street History

Morgan Stanley Stock Traders Deliver Windfall on Tariff Turmoil

BofA Beats Estimates as Trading, Lending Revenue Outperform

PNC Financial’s Quarterly Profit Rises on Higher Interest Income, Fees

Credit Card Benefits Are More Valuable Than Ever

There’s No ‘Retirement Crisis,’ LeBron James Shows Why

Aquarian Nears Deal for U.S. Insurer Brighthouse

China Is Spending Billions to Become an A.I. Superpower

ASML Hedges Growth Outlook for 2026 as Trade Wars Weigh on Sales

Ellison Overtakes Zuckerberg as World’s Second-Richest Person

Estée Lauder, a Late Digital Adopter, Makes New Push to Reach Shoppers Online

America’s Protein Obsession Is Transforming the Dairy Industry

Goodles Thinks Mac and Cheese Shouldn’t Be Adults’ Secret Meal Anymore

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CWS Market Review – July 15, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on July 15th, 2025 at 5:03 pm

(This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

The Major Banks Kick Off Earnings Season

The S&P 500 reached a new intra-day high today — over 6,300, but the market gradually gave back those gains and closed lower on the day. The Dow lost over 430 points but the Nasdaq closed a little higher. The Russell 2000 Index of small-cap stocks was especially weak today. The index lost 1.8% today.

Today was the unofficial start to Q2 earnings season, and the big banks like to go first. We had six major financial institutions report results today. Here’s a breakdown of what they had to say.

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) reported Q2 earnings of $5.24 per share. That’s a decline of 17% from last year’s Q2, but it beat Wall Street’s estimate of $4.48 per share. Quarterly revenue was $45.68 billion which topped estimates of $44.06 billion.

JPM was helped last quarter by a $2.8 billion provision for credit losses. Fees from investment banking increased 7% to $2.5 billion. JPM also raised its guidance for net interest income to $95.5 billion.

Shares of Citigroup (C) have been popular recently. The stock has rallied 40% over the last three months. This morning, the bank said that its Q2 net income rose 25% to just over $4 billion. Citi’s total market revenue was up 16% over last year. Its banking unit was up 18%.

For the quarter, Citi earned $1.96 per share. That topped estimates by 36 cents per share. The bank had revenue of $21.67 billion which beat estimates of $20.98 billion. Earlier this month, Citi raised its dividend from 56 cents to 60 cents per share. The shares got a nice rally today.

Financial stocks have led Wall Street over the past year, but they’ve lagged over the last three months.

Wells Fargo (WFC) beat earnings but lowered its guidance for net interest income. For Q2, Wells had earnings of $1.54 per share which topped expectations by 13 cents per share. WFC’s profit was up from the $1.33 per share it made one year ago.

In April, Wells said it expected net interest income growth at the low end of its 1% to 3% range. Now it says that its net interest income will be in line with last year’s total.

Last month, after seven years, the Federal Reserve finally lifted the $1.95 trillion asset cap on Wells. The bank said it aims to expand carefully. The stock was down over 5% today.

Bank of New York Mellon (BK) had a solid quarter. For Q2, BK’s revenues were up 9% to $5.03 billion. Wall Street had been expecting $4.78 billion.

For earnings, BK made $1.94 per share. That was a 19-cent beat. Net interest income increased 17% to $1.2 billion. The bank also raised its quarterly dividend from 47 cents to 53 cents per share. BK was mostly flat today.

Shares of State Street (STT) got clobbered today after the asset manager missed its earnings estimate. For Q2, State Street made $2.17 per share while Wall Street had been expecting $2.35 per share.

Revenue for the quarter was $3.4 billion which was slightly higher than the $3.35 billion that Wall Street had expected. Assets under custody hit a record $49 trillion and assets under management hit a record $5 trillion. Last quarter, STT launched 39 new products.

Lastly, we have BlackRock (BLK) which is the largest asset manager in the world. Despite its size, BlackRock had its worst earnings day in more than a decade even though the company beat expectations. Of course, when the market behaves like that, you must wonder what the expectations really were.

Client assets under management rose to a record $12.5 trillion. Revenues rose 13% to $5.4 billion which barely missed estimates. Larry Fink said, “Long-term, I’m a huge buyer of BlackRock at these prices.”

Interestingly, BlackRock pulled in $14 billion for crypto ETFs. The company said it holds a $330 million stake in stablecoin issuer Circle. BLK was down around 5.5% today.

Today was only the beginning. Tomorrow, Goldman Sachs (GS), Morgan Stanley (MS) and Bank of America (BAC) will report. Abbott Labs (ABT), our first Buy List stock, will report on Thursday, along with Pepsi (PEP) and Netflix (NFLX).

Consumer Prices Rose 0.3% Last Month

We also got the CPI report for June. Inflation continues to be mostly benign but not fully benign. The long-awaited tariff inflation has not arrived, at least not in a serious way.

Last month, consumer prices increased 0.3%. That was in line with expectations. Over the last year, inflation increased by 2.7%. This is another data point in my thesis that getting inflation down from 9% to 3% was surprisingly easy but that getting from it from 3% to 2% is proving to be very difficult. CNBC has a good breakdown of the report.

If we look at the core rate, which excludes food and energy prices, then inflation rose by 0.2% last month. That was 0.1% below expectations. Over the last 12 months, core inflation is running at 2.9%.

Before a few months ago, inflation had been consistently drifting lower. That trend appears to have stopped. The 12-month inflation rate ending in May was 2.4%. Inflation accelerated by 0.3% last month. The 12-month rate is now the highest it’s been since February. We now have clear signs that duties are impacting prices.

Vehicle prices fell on the month, with prices on new vehicles down 0.3% and used car and trucks tumbling 0.7%. However, tariff-sensitive apparel prices rose 0.4%. Household furnishings, which also are influenced by tariffs, increased 1% for the month.

Shelter prices increased just 0.2% for the month, but the BLS said the category was still the largest contributor to the overall CPI gain. The index rose 3.8% from a year ago. Within the category, a measurement of what homeowners feel they could receive if they rented their properties increased 0.3%. However, lodging away from home slipped 2.9%.

Last month, food prices increased by 0.3%. Over the last year, food prices are up by 3.0%. Energy prices had fallen in May but they increased by 0.9% last month. Adjusted for inflation, hourly earnings fell by 0.1% in June.

There’s been a standoff recently between the White House and the Federal Reserve. President Trump has argued strenuously for the Fed to resume cutting interest rates. The Fed has said that it would love to cut rates if not for the president’s tariff policies. Chairman Powell’s term is up in May, and it’s clear that he won’t be renominated.

The Fed meets again in two weeks and it’s highly unlikely that the Fed will cut interest rates this time around. The futures prices for not cutting are currently at 97.4%. After the July meeting, we’ll start to see the Fed move.

You can expect earnings news to dominate Wall Street for the coming few weeks. Tomorrow we’ll get the report on industrial production. Then on Thursday, the retail sales report is due out. That’s all for now. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

– Eddy

Morning News: July 15, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on July 15th, 2025 at 7:11 am

Israel and Iran Usher In New Era of Psychological Warfare

Tariffs, China Deflation Cloud South Africa CPI, Kganyago Says

China Says Its Economy Held Up Under Trump Tariff Attack

China’s Cutthroat Industrial Price Wars Are Here to Stay

China’s GDP Beat Masks Fragile Demand, Sparking Outlook Concerns

America’s Biggest Rare-Earth Producer Makes a Play to End China’s Dominance

Trump’s 50% Copper Tariffs Jolt US Market as Buyers Slash Imports and Delay Orders

Power Prices Are Expected to Soar Under New Tax Cut and Spending Law

Europe’s Factories Boosted by Tariff Frontrunning as August Deadline Looms

Inside One Company’s Prolonged Tariff Limbo

Americans’ New Tax Rates Depend on Who They Are and What They Do

Is the Dollar’s Era of Exorbitant Privilege Ending?

If the U.S. Ever Needs the ‘Printing Press,’ It Will Have No Debt

Bessent Says ‘Formal Process’ for Powell Successor Has Started

Bessent’s Interest Rate Bet Could Be a Big Loser

JPMorgan Profit Beats on Wall Street Rebound; Raises Interest Income Forecast

JPMorgan’s Surprise Dealmaking Gain Shows Tariff Fear Easing

At Vanguard, the Man From BlackRock Ushers in a Quiet Revolution

Walleye, Former Trader Spar Over Hedge Fund’s Non-Compete Terms

Nvidia Wins OK to Sell AI Chip to China Again After CEO Meets Trump

Elon Musk Floats a New Source of Funding for xAI: Tesla

Meta’s New Superintelligence Lab Is Discussing Major A.I. Strategy Changes

Their Water Taps Ran Dry When Meta Built Next Door

AMD Says It Will Restart MI308 Sales to China After US Review

Federal Workers’ ‘Emotional Roller Coaster’: Fired, Rehired, Fired Again

PBS and NPR’s Last-Ditch Fight to Save Funding

The D.E.I. Industry, Scorned by the White House, Turns to ‘Safer’ Topics

Making Immigration Great Again

After Devastating Winter Losses, Another Threat Looms for U.S. Beekeepers

Another Casualty in the Tariff Wars: The Always-in-Season Tomato

Stealth Stake Sales Helped UnitedHealth Beat Wall Street Targets

Amazon Prime Day Is Past Its Prime

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Morning News: July 14, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on July 14th, 2025 at 7:04 am

Japanese Bonds Tumble as Fiscal Worries Mount Before Election

China Is Buying Appliances and iPhones. What Happens When the Subsidies Stop?

China’s Exports Beat Expectations After Trade Truce With U.S.

China Shrugs Off Tariffs to Extend Its Manufacturing Dominance

Your Next Lawn Chair Is Coming From Vietnam, but It’s Still Kind of Chinese

Under Attack by Trump’s Tariffs, Asian Countries Seek Out Better Friends

India’s Foreign Minister Sees Progress in China Ties on First Visit Since 2020

Trump Tariff Salvos Push Economies to Seek to Broaden Trade Ties

Tariffs on Brazil Could Leave Coffee Drinkers With a Headache

EU Trade Chief to Contact U.S. Officials After 30% Tariff Threat

Higher Tariffs Would Likely Spur ECB to Further Cut Rates

How Trump’s Latest Tariff Threat Risks Deeper Damage to Europe’s Economy

The Race Is On to Build U.S. Copper Mines After Trump Pledges Higher Tariffs

Trump’s Tax Law Throws Lifeline to Unloved Energy and Climate Sectors

Jane Street Deposits $567 Million So It Can Resume India Trading

Plunging Dollar Leaves American Travelers With Less Buying Power This Summer

Economists Are The Only Barrier To A Return To The Gold Standard

Bitcoin Soars Past $120,000 as US Congress Starts ‘Crypto Week’

The Fed Is Built to Resist Trump’s Meddling

US Bank M&A Hopes Revive Under Trump Regulators

Food Banks Are Running Out of Food Exactly When More Americans Will Need Them

A ‘100% American’ Farm Workforce? That’s Delusional

Private-Equity Firms Bain and Kohlberg Make Another Big Bet on Biopharma Industry

China Biotech’s Stunning Advance Is Changing the World’s Drug Pipeline

The Future of Weather Prediction Is Here. Maybe.

Factories Were Pushed Out of Cities. Their Return Could Revive Downtowns.

America Is Losing Its Intelligence

Drones Are Key to Winning Wars Now. The U.S. Makes Hardly Any.

Trump to Send Patriots to Ukraine, US ‘Not Paying’ for Them

Jensen Huang Talks Up Nvidia’s Strategic Value to US as He Heads to China

China Is Poised to Buy More EVs Than Gas-Only Cars This Year

Musk Says Tesla Shareholders Will Vote on xAI Investment

With $217 Million in Ticket Sales, ‘Superman’ Helps Save Warner Bros., Too

The Kids Are All Right (Just Not at a Brewery)

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