Morning News: April 3, 2020
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on April 3rd, 2020 at 7:02 am

The Virus Will Force Europe to Make a Decision About Italy

OPEC and Allies Reportedly Set for Video Meeting as Analysts Pour Skepticism on Trump’s Intervention

Trump to Host Big Oil Execs at White House to Discuss Market Slump

Fed Balance Sheet Grows to Unprecedented $5.81 Trillion

U.S. Jobs Report Likely to Show Start of Record Labor-Market Collapse

When Will U.S. Economy Bottom? Economists Hunt for the Right View

Small Business Administration Releases Guidelines For Stimulus Loans Hours Before Planned Launch. Banks Aren’t Ready.

How Tech’s Lobbyists Are Using the Pandemic to Make Gains

Google Shares Data on How Virus Has Changed Movement in Cities

Cities That Went All In on Social Distancing in 1918 Emerged Stronger for It

Cullen Roche: Pragmatic Thinking On…COVID-19

Jeff Carter: Killer Companies

Ben Carlson: Words of Wisdom From William Bernstein

Roger Nusbaum: Is FIRE Dead, What About Expat Retirement?

Joshua Brown: Staggering

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Morning News: April 2, 2020
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on April 2nd, 2020 at 6:57 am

Qatar Plans to Raise $5 Billion After Oil Rout

Trump Says Expects Russia-Saudi Oil Deal Soon, Invites US Oil Chiefs to White House

U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims Seen At Record High: Again

Needy Will Face Hurdles to Getting Coronavirus Stimulus

Main Street Banks Are About to Show Just How Much Risk They Face

Auto Sales Plummet in First Quarter as Coronavirus Keeps Buyers Away

DealBook: Start-Ups Are Suffering

WeWork Troubles Deepen as SoftBank Pulls $3 Billion Tender Offer

Boeing Expected to Announce Voluntary Buyouts to All Employees

T-Mobile Completes Merger with Sprint, John Legere Steps Down as CEO

Nick Maggiulli: The Craziest Month in Stock Market History

Joshua Brown: Making Investment Decisions During a Crisis, Will the Economy Go Back to “Normal” & Mr. Morgan

Howard Lindzon: Financials Versus Technology and Warriors Over Worriers

Ben Carlson: When Dollar Cost Averaging Matters the Most

Michael Batnick: The State of the American Business

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Friday Conference Call
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on April 1st, 2020 at 10:41 am

Please join me this Friday at 2 pm ET for a conference call. National security expert John Schindler will be joining me to discuss the markets and the state of the world.

You can register here.

“This Will Be a Painful Two Weeks”
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on April 1st, 2020 at 10:13 am

The stock market is down again this morning. Energy and Financials are down the most. President Trump warned that this will be a painful two weeks. Bonds are doing well and the dollar us up.

This morning, ADP said employers shed 27,000 private payroll jobs through March 12. The numbers after that will be staggering. Tomorrow we’ll get an update on jobless claims. Then on Friday, we get the official jobs report.

This morning’s ISM report came in at 49.1. That’s not so bad. I’m curious if the full force hasn’t hit just yet.

The April issue of Growth Stock Advisor will be heading out to you soon. In this month’s issue, I go over our investing game plan for how to manage your portfolio in the age of Covid.

Morning News: April 1, 2020
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on April 1st, 2020 at 7:12 am

Oil Majors Slash 2020 Spending By 20% After Prices Slump

Trump Warns of Pain Ahead While ‘Shocking’ Reality Sets In

Supercharged Debt Bets Unravel and Expose Wall Street’s Big Risk

How Powell and Mnuchin Became the Duo in Charge of Saving the Economy

As Virus Hobbles Economy, Companies Race to Tap Credit and Raise Cash

U.S. Small Businesses Wait Impatiently for Government Aid That Could Be Slow to Come

Gundlach, Marks Are Among Those Seeing More Losses Coming

Coronavirus Battle Creates a Global ‘Free-for-All’ to Find Masks

Worker Crunch Hits World’s Top Medical Glove Maker As Demand Spikes

Xerox Drops $34 Billion HP Takeover Bid Amid COVID-19 Uncertainty

Nick Maggiulli: Was That the Bottom?

Jeff Miller: Critical Thinking: Cyclical Stock Potential

Ben Carlson: The Corona Crisis vs. The Great Depression

Roger Nusbaum: Is Libertarianism Dead?

Michael Batnick: “Everybody Thinks” & Animal Spirits: The Dead Cat Bounce?

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The Market Continues to Calm Down
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on March 31st, 2020 at 11:26 am

I say this with some hesitation, but it looks as if the period of extreme volatility has passed. Over the last five days, the S&P 500 is up over 17%. There have been three days in the last eight where the daily change was more than 4%. In the eight days prior to that, all eight had daily changes of more than 4%.

Here are some news items impacting our stocks:

Cerner (CERN) talks about the possibility of having 27,000 employees work from home.

Stepan (SCL) said it bought Logos Technologies’s NatSurFact business.

Trex (TREX) provided an update on its business plans.

An analyst at RBC called Danaher (DHR) a “break glass in case of emergency” type of investment.

Disney’s (DIS) Chairman CEO Bob Iger said he will forgo his salary this year.

Morning News: March 31, 2020
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on March 31st, 2020 at 7:08 am

Nightmare Haunting Euro Founders May Be a Reality With Italy

Oil Prices Are On Track for Their Worst Ever Quarter as Coronavirus Slashes Demand

Huawei Warns China Will Strike Back Against New U.S. Restrictions

Goldman Sachs Sees 34% Plunge in U.S. GDP and 15% Unemployment

Explainer: What the Federal Reserve Has Done in The Coronavirus Crisis

A Lot Is Riding on Stock Bottom Calls That Worked in a Bull Market

U.S. Retail Crisis Deepens as Hundreds of Thousands Lose Work

Strikes at Instacart and Amazon Over Coronavirus Health Concerns

Banks Stuck With $23 Billion of Loans for T-Mobile’s Sprint Deal

Ad Giant WPP Pulls Dividend, Buyback and Outlook as Clients Cut Spending

Zoom is Under Scrutiny from the New York Attorney General for Its Privacy Practices

USPS Warns it Might Have to Shutter by June as $2 Trillion Coronavirus Stimulus Package Provides No Funding

Ben Carlson: Even Warren Buffett Can’t Nail the Bottom

Howard Lindzon: How The Pandemic Will End

Joshua Brown: What Small Businesses Need to Know About Accessing Forgivable Loans, How to Safely Take Money From Your Retirement Account Now, Three Reasons It’s Not 1929, What If GDP Falls More Than the Stock Market? & Not Depth…Duration

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Extreme Volatility May Have Peaked
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on March 30th, 2020 at 10:57 am

The market is up modestly this morning. It’s refreshing to see more normal price action today. The big news is that President Trump said the social distancing policies will last through April.

Last week was the best week for the Dow since 1938. Healthcare stocks are particularly strong this morning. Johnson & Johnson said it’s working on a potential vaccine. Abbott Labs said it’s made a five-minute test for Covid-19. The FDA has given them emergency-use authorization.

FactSet (FDS) is up another 6% so far today. Hershey (HSY) is less than 10% from its 52-week high. Not many companies can say that.

Here’s a chart of the S&P 500’s daily volatility. It’s early to say this but the extreme volatility may have peaked.

Morning News: March 30, 2020
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on March 30th, 2020 at 7:06 am

Oil Hits New Lows and Stock Markets Signal Lingering Unease

‘We Will Starve Here’: India’s Poor Flee Cities in Mass Exodus

China Rejoins Monetary Easing Wave as World Shuts Down

European Stocks Edge Lower After ECB Calls for Banks to Halt Dividends Through October

After Fed Unleashes Firepower, Washington Rearms Central Bank

U.S. Stimulus Package is Biggest Ever, But May Not Be Big Enough

Coronavirus Worries and Strife: Investors Fear Markets Not Out of Woods Despite Big Rally

Mortgage Bankers Ask SEC to Save Them From Wave of Margin Calls

The U.S. Tried to Build a New Fleet of Ventilators. The Mission Failed.

Inside G.M.’s Race to Build Ventilators, Before Trump’s Attack

Scary Times for U.S. Companies Spell Boom for Restructuring Advisers

Michael Batnick: When Should I Rebalance?

Roger Nusbaum: The Importance Of Perspective & Priorities & Did The Tide Just Go Out On 60/40?

Jeff Carter: Some Things We Might Be Learning & We Can’t Go On Forever Like This

Ben Carlson: The Hardest Part of a Buy & Hold Strategy & Some Questions I’m Pondering During the Crisis & A Short History of Dead Cat Bounces

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Today’s Webinar
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on March 27th, 2020 at 12:13 pm

Please join me today at 4 pm ET.

You can register here.