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  • A Few Notes on Today’s Market
    Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on February 26th, 2020 at 5:06 pm

    Today was an unusual day for the market. At one point, the Dow was up 461 points. At its low, the Dow was down 190 points. It closed down 123 points.

    Middleby (MIDD) closed up 7.95%. At one point, it was up more than 20%.

    Ansys (ANSS) crushed earnings but had lousy guidance. The stock gained 1.4% today but is down 3.8% in the after-hours session.

    Disney (DIS) lost 3.77% which is nearly $9 billion in market cap. That suggests that Robert Iger is worth a lot to the business.

    Trex (TREX) fell 5% today even though it was up yesterday. Some analysts pared back their Q1 forecasts.

  • Ansys Beats Earnings
    Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on February 26th, 2020 at 4:21 pm

    After the closing bell, Ansys (ANSS) reported Q4 earnings of $2.24 per share. Wall Street had been expecting $1.98 per share. For the year, Ansys made $6.58 per share.

    Ajei Gopal, Ansys President & CEO, said, “Q4 was an outstanding quarter concluding a stellar 2019. We grew double digits across revenue and ACV for the quarter and the year, and I am confident we are tracking towards our 2022 objective of $2 billion in ACV.”

    For Q1, Ansys sees revenues ranging between $300 million and $320 million and earnings between 75 and 88 cents per share.

    That’s well below consensus. Wall Street had been expecting $360 million and earnings of $1.36 per share.

    For the year, Ansys sees revenues between $1.64 billion and $1.70 billion, and EPS between $6.19 and $6.71.

    For the year, Wall Street had been expecting $1.68 billion and earnings of $6.76 per share.

    The stock was up 1.4% today. The stock is currently down about 6% in the after-hours market.

  • Middleby Earns $2 per Share
    Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on February 26th, 2020 at 11:46 am

    The stock market is looking much better this morning after the unpleasantness of the last two days. President Trump will be speaking at 6 p.m. ET on the virus outbreak.

    We got a very good earnings report this morning from Middleby (MIDD). At one point this morning, the shares gapped up over 20%.

    For Q4, the company made $2.00 per share. That crushed estimates of $1.71 per share. Quarterly sales rose 4.1% to $787.6 million. For the year, Middleby made $7.02 per share. This was a great quarter for them.

    CEO Timothy FitzGerald said, “Over the past year we made significant investments in new product innovations addressing these categories and are pleased to see growing interest as we enter 2020. We are well-positioned with a much improved backlog as we closed out 2019 and are confident it will translate into sales and profitability growth for the upcoming year.”

    Ansys (ANSS) will be reporting after today’s close. Also, shares of Disney (DIS) are lower today after CEO Robert Iger said he’ll be retiring.

  • Q4 2019 Earnings Calendar
    Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on February 26th, 2020 at 8:45 am

    Twenty-one of our 25 Buy List stocks are reporting their Q4 earnings during this earnings season. Here’s a list of reporting dates, Wall Street’s consensus estimates and actual reported results.

    Company Symbol Date Estimate Result
    Eagle Bancorp EGBN 15-Jan $1.07 $1.06
    Silgan Holdings SLGN 28-Jan $0.38 $0.38
    Stryker SYK 28-Jan $2.46 $2.49
    Danaher DHR 30-Jan $1.25 $1.28
    Hershey HSY 30-Jan $1.24 $1.28
    Sherwin-Williams SHW 30-Jan $4.39 $4.27
    Broadridge Financial Solutions BR 31-Jan $0.71 $0.53
    Church & Dwight CHD 31-Jan $0.55 $0.55
    Check Point Software CHKP 3-Feb $1.99 $2.02
    AFLAC AFL 4-Feb $1.02 $1.03
    Cerner CERN 4-Feb $0.74 $0.75
    Disney DIS 4-Feb $1.44 $1.53
    Fiserv FISV 4-Feb $1.14 $1.13
    Globe Life GL 4-Feb $1.72 $1.70
    Becton, Dickinson BDX 6-Feb $2.63 $2.65
    Intercontinental Exchange ICE 6-Feb $0.95 $0.95
    Moody’s MCO 12-Feb $1.93 $2.00
    Stepan SCL 20-Feb $0.88 $1.10
    Trex TREX 24-Feb $0.51 $0.61
    ANSYS ANSS 26-Feb $1.98 $2.24
    Middleby MIDD 26-Feb $1.71 $2.00
  • Morning News: February 26, 2020
    Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on February 26th, 2020 at 7:10 am

    World Shares Slump for Fifth Day, Bets Grow on Interest Rate Cuts To Counter Damage

    ‘Not Just an Italian Problem’: Coronavirus Threatens Europe’s Economy

    Fed Official Says Coronavirus Economic Fallout ‘Could Spill Over’

    Coronavirus Shows the Problem With Trump’s Stock Market Boasting

    Reddit’s Profane, Greedy Traders Are Shaking Up the Stock Market

    New Disney CEO’s First Big Challenge Is Coronavirus Crisis

    Lowe’s Quarterly Sales Miss Estimates Despite Strong Market

    Bayer Chairman Quits as Roundup Settlement Talks Progress

    Salesforce Co-CEO Keith Block Steps Down, Marc Benioff to be Sole Chief

    Walmart Steps Up Competition with Amazon by Fulfilling Orders for Third-Party Vendors

    Opioid Manufacturer Reaches Proposed $1.6 Billion Settlement

    Nick Maggiulli: Dollar Cost Averaging vs. Lump Sum: The Definitive Guide

    Ben Carlson: 5 Companies Make up 18% of the S&P 500. Should Investors Care? & Talk Your Book: Small & Mid Cap Growth Stock Investing

    Michael Batnick: What Happens When You Buy the Dip?, Is the Stock Market Going to Crash? & Animal Spirits: Michael’s Worst Investment Ever

    Be sure to follow me on Twitter.

  • Morning News: February 25, 2020
    Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on February 25th, 2020 at 7:10 am

    Japan to Further Ease Rules on Foreign Ownership of Stocks

    Post-Brexit, Britain Is Going Its Own Way. That Way Looks Expensive.

    Canada Oil-Sands Plan Collapses Over Politics and Economics

    As Trump Visits India, A Trade Deal Remains Elusive

    U.S. Stocks Plunge as Coronavirus Crisis Spreads

    Intuit to Buy Credit Karma to Create Financial Data Giant

    Amazon Expands Physical Footprint With Bigger Cashier-Less Grocery Shop

    Home Depot Earnings Rise on Revved-Up U.S. Housing Market

    Rejected by Wall Street, Ford’s CEO Has Support Where It Matters

    Virgin Galactic Has No Flights or Profits But Investors Love It

    JPMorgan to Maintain Key Growth Targets From Last Year at Investor Day

    Juul Pitches Locked Vaporizer in Bid to Stay on U.S. Market

    Howard Lindzon: Is This A Fintech Bubble?

    Roger Nusbaum: Are We Overreacting To The Corona Virus Or Underreacting?

    Joshua Brown: “Deglobalization is the Most Powerful Theme in the World” & Everything Warren Buffett Said on CNBC This Morning

    Be sure to follow me on Twitter.

  • Trex Beats by 10 Cents per Share
    Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on February 25th, 2020 at 1:51 am

    After the close on Monday, Trex (TREX) reported Q4 earnings of 61 cents per share. That was 10 cents more than estimates. Sales rose 18% to $165 million. The company had been expecting sales of $160 million.

    For the year, Trex earned $2.47 per share on sales of $745 million. CEO James E. Cline said, “Fourth-quarter results were in line with our expectations for strong double-digit sales growth and sequential gross margin expansion.” This was a very good quarter for Trex.

    For 2020, Trex expects “strong double-digit sales growth.” They expect sales of $200 million for Q1 which is an 11% increase over last year. During 2019, Trex bought back 500,000 shares of stock at an average price of $77 per share.

    One other note. James E. Cline will be retiring as CEO later this year. The board has chosen Bryan Fairbanks to be the new CEO.

  • Worst Day in Two Years
    Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on February 24th, 2020 at 5:26 pm

    Today was a very rough day for the stock market. Fears of the coronavirus are finally landing hard on the financial markets. The S&P 500 fell 3.35% today. This was the worst day for the index in more than two years. The Dow lost over 1,000 points.

    If it’s any consolation, our Buy List did much better than the overall market. For the day, our Buy List lost -2.30%. It’s not often we beat the market by 1% in a day. Eighteen of our 25 stocks beat the market today although every stock on our Buy List was down.

    There was an unusually wide gap between High Beta and Low Vol today. Low Vol fell -1.76% while High Beta lost -4.80%. The VIX jumped from 18 to 25.

    The futures market now shows slightly better than even odds of a Fed rate cut in April.

  • Morning News: February 24, 2020
    Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on February 24th, 2020 at 7:01 am

    Digital Tax Fight Emerges as Global Economic Threat

    The Fight Over a Gas Pipeline Is Paralyzing Parts of Canada’s Economy

    Take Five: ‘Our Currency, Your Problem’ – All Over Again

    As the Start-Up Boom Deflates, Tech Is Humbled

    Buffett Extols Value of Stock Bets in a Year Without Big Deals

    Trump Says U.S.-India to Sign $3 Billion in Defense Deals

    U.S. Sees No Material Impact From Virus on U.S.-China Trade Deal – For Now

    Stocks Fall on Worries That the Coronavirus May Hurt Growth

    Coronavirus Concerns Spur Odd Market Moves

    Some Samsung, Hyundai Workers Self-Quarantine as Korea Inc Braces for Virus Impact

    SoftBank Leads $165 Million Capital Boost for Liquid Biopsy Firm Karius

    Glass, Once the King of Packaging, Seeks a Comeback

    Jeff Miller: Investors Can Always Learn Something from Mr. Buffett

    Michael Batnick: Levered Long & The Current Media Landscape

    Ben Carlson: Markets Have ALWAYS Been Rigged, Broken & Manipulated, Should You Pay Off Your Mortgage Early With Rates So Low? & A Short History of Advertising

    Be sure to follow me on Twitter.

  • All-Time Low
    Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on February 21st, 2020 at 10:02 am

    This morning, the yield on the 30-year Treasury fell to 1.886% which is an all-time low.

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  • Eddy ElfenbeinEddy Elfenbein is a Washington, DC-based speaker, portfolio manager and editor of the blog Crossing Wall Street. His Buy List has beaten the S&P 500 over the last 20 years. (more)

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