Morning News: July 16, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on July 16th, 2025 at 7:05 am

Saudi Arabia Faces Decision on Oil Output Cuts After June’s Overproduction

Indonesia’s Central Bank Cuts Rates to Bolster Economy

U.K. Inflation Heats Up as Bank of England Stays Cautious on New Rate Cuts

EU Exports to U.S. Cool as Trans-Atlantic Trade Faces Tariff Test

Euro to Rise to $1.23 by Mid-2026 as Investors Switch From Dollars, Says UBS

Trump’s ‘Sheriffs’ Can’t Keep the Peace With China

Trump Says Drug Tariffs Probable by Aug. 1, Downplays More Deals

With Tariffs, Why the Focus On Price and Taxation?

Forget TACO. Trump Is Winning His Trade War.

Despite Dire Warnings, the Economy Is Holding Up. Can That Last?

Trump Effect Starts to Show Up in Economy

America’s Anti-Immigrant Fever Is Starting to Break

Never Fully Beaten, Inflation Is Coming Back to Life

Dimon Defends Fed Independence After Trump Attacks

Hassett Grabs Pole Position in Race to Be Trump’s New Fed Chair

The FICO Monopoly Is Living on Borrowed Time

White House Readies Order to Bring Private Equity to 401(k)s

PCAOB Chair Erica Williams to Resign at Request of SEC Chairman

Goldman Posts Best Stock-Trading Quarter in Wall Street History

Morgan Stanley Stock Traders Deliver Windfall on Tariff Turmoil

BofA Beats Estimates as Trading, Lending Revenue Outperform

PNC Financial’s Quarterly Profit Rises on Higher Interest Income, Fees

Credit Card Benefits Are More Valuable Than Ever

There’s No ‘Retirement Crisis,’ LeBron James Shows Why

Aquarian Nears Deal for U.S. Insurer Brighthouse

China Is Spending Billions to Become an A.I. Superpower

ASML Hedges Growth Outlook for 2026 as Trade Wars Weigh on Sales

Ellison Overtakes Zuckerberg as World’s Second-Richest Person

Estée Lauder, a Late Digital Adopter, Makes New Push to Reach Shoppers Online

America’s Protein Obsession Is Transforming the Dairy Industry

Goodles Thinks Mac and Cheese Shouldn’t Be Adults’ Secret Meal Anymore

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CWS Market Review – July 15, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on July 15th, 2025 at 5:03 pm

(This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

The Major Banks Kick Off Earnings Season

The S&P 500 reached a new intra-day high today — over 6,300, but the market gradually gave back those gains and closed lower on the day. The Dow lost over 430 points but the Nasdaq closed a little higher. The Russell 2000 Index of small-cap stocks was especially weak today. The index lost 1.8% today.

Today was the unofficial start to Q2 earnings season, and the big banks like to go first. We had six major financial institutions report results today. Here’s a breakdown of what they had to say.

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) reported Q2 earnings of $5.24 per share. That’s a decline of 17% from last year’s Q2, but it beat Wall Street’s estimate of $4.48 per share. Quarterly revenue was $45.68 billion which topped estimates of $44.06 billion.

JPM was helped last quarter by a $2.8 billion provision for credit losses. Fees from investment banking increased 7% to $2.5 billion. JPM also raised its guidance for net interest income to $95.5 billion.

Shares of Citigroup (C) have been popular recently. The stock has rallied 40% over the last three months. This morning, the bank said that its Q2 net income rose 25% to just over $4 billion. Citi’s total market revenue was up 16% over last year. Its banking unit was up 18%.

For the quarter, Citi earned $1.96 per share. That topped estimates by 36 cents per share. The bank had revenue of $21.67 billion which beat estimates of $20.98 billion. Earlier this month, Citi raised its dividend from 56 cents to 60 cents per share. The shares got a nice rally today.

Financial stocks have led Wall Street over the past year, but they’ve lagged over the last three months.

Wells Fargo (WFC) beat earnings but lowered its guidance for net interest income. For Q2, Wells had earnings of $1.54 per share which topped expectations by 13 cents per share. WFC’s profit was up from the $1.33 per share it made one year ago.

In April, Wells said it expected net interest income growth at the low end of its 1% to 3% range. Now it says that its net interest income will be in line with last year’s total.

Last month, after seven years, the Federal Reserve finally lifted the $1.95 trillion asset cap on Wells. The bank said it aims to expand carefully. The stock was down over 5% today.

Bank of New York Mellon (BK) had a solid quarter. For Q2, BK’s revenues were up 9% to $5.03 billion. Wall Street had been expecting $4.78 billion.

For earnings, BK made $1.94 per share. That was a 19-cent beat. Net interest income increased 17% to $1.2 billion. The bank also raised its quarterly dividend from 47 cents to 53 cents per share. BK was mostly flat today.

Shares of State Street (STT) got clobbered today after the asset manager missed its earnings estimate. For Q2, State Street made $2.17 per share while Wall Street had been expecting $2.35 per share.

Revenue for the quarter was $3.4 billion which was slightly higher than the $3.35 billion that Wall Street had expected. Assets under custody hit a record $49 trillion and assets under management hit a record $5 trillion. Last quarter, STT launched 39 new products.

Lastly, we have BlackRock (BLK) which is the largest asset manager in the world. Despite its size, BlackRock had its worst earnings day in more than a decade even though the company beat expectations. Of course, when the market behaves like that, you must wonder what the expectations really were.

Client assets under management rose to a record $12.5 trillion. Revenues rose 13% to $5.4 billion which barely missed estimates. Larry Fink said, “Long-term, I’m a huge buyer of BlackRock at these prices.”

Interestingly, BlackRock pulled in $14 billion for crypto ETFs. The company said it holds a $330 million stake in stablecoin issuer Circle. BLK was down around 5.5% today.

Today was only the beginning. Tomorrow, Goldman Sachs (GS), Morgan Stanley (MS) and Bank of America (BAC) will report. Abbott Labs (ABT), our first Buy List stock, will report on Thursday, along with Pepsi (PEP) and Netflix (NFLX).

Consumer Prices Rose 0.3% Last Month

We also got the CPI report for June. Inflation continues to be mostly benign but not fully benign. The long-awaited tariff inflation has not arrived, at least not in a serious way.

Last month, consumer prices increased 0.3%. That was in line with expectations. Over the last year, inflation increased by 2.7%. This is another data point in my thesis that getting inflation down from 9% to 3% was surprisingly easy but that getting from it from 3% to 2% is proving to be very difficult. CNBC has a good breakdown of the report.

If we look at the core rate, which excludes food and energy prices, then inflation rose by 0.2% last month. That was 0.1% below expectations. Over the last 12 months, core inflation is running at 2.9%.

Before a few months ago, inflation had been consistently drifting lower. That trend appears to have stopped. The 12-month inflation rate ending in May was 2.4%. Inflation accelerated by 0.3% last month. The 12-month rate is now the highest it’s been since February. We now have clear signs that duties are impacting prices.

Vehicle prices fell on the month, with prices on new vehicles down 0.3% and used car and trucks tumbling 0.7%. However, tariff-sensitive apparel prices rose 0.4%. Household furnishings, which also are influenced by tariffs, increased 1% for the month.

Shelter prices increased just 0.2% for the month, but the BLS said the category was still the largest contributor to the overall CPI gain. The index rose 3.8% from a year ago. Within the category, a measurement of what homeowners feel they could receive if they rented their properties increased 0.3%. However, lodging away from home slipped 2.9%.

Last month, food prices increased by 0.3%. Over the last year, food prices are up by 3.0%. Energy prices had fallen in May but they increased by 0.9% last month. Adjusted for inflation, hourly earnings fell by 0.1% in June.

There’s been a standoff recently between the White House and the Federal Reserve. President Trump has argued strenuously for the Fed to resume cutting interest rates. The Fed has said that it would love to cut rates if not for the president’s tariff policies. Chairman Powell’s term is up in May, and it’s clear that he won’t be renominated.

The Fed meets again in two weeks and it’s highly unlikely that the Fed will cut interest rates this time around. The futures prices for not cutting are currently at 97.4%. After the July meeting, we’ll start to see the Fed move.

You can expect earnings news to dominate Wall Street for the coming few weeks. Tomorrow we’ll get the report on industrial production. Then on Thursday, the retail sales report is due out. That’s all for now. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

– Eddy

Morning News: July 15, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on July 15th, 2025 at 7:11 am

Israel and Iran Usher In New Era of Psychological Warfare

Tariffs, China Deflation Cloud South Africa CPI, Kganyago Says

China Says Its Economy Held Up Under Trump Tariff Attack

China’s Cutthroat Industrial Price Wars Are Here to Stay

China’s GDP Beat Masks Fragile Demand, Sparking Outlook Concerns

America’s Biggest Rare-Earth Producer Makes a Play to End China’s Dominance

Trump’s 50% Copper Tariffs Jolt US Market as Buyers Slash Imports and Delay Orders

Power Prices Are Expected to Soar Under New Tax Cut and Spending Law

Europe’s Factories Boosted by Tariff Frontrunning as August Deadline Looms

Inside One Company’s Prolonged Tariff Limbo

Americans’ New Tax Rates Depend on Who They Are and What They Do

Is the Dollar’s Era of Exorbitant Privilege Ending?

If the U.S. Ever Needs the ‘Printing Press,’ It Will Have No Debt

Bessent Says ‘Formal Process’ for Powell Successor Has Started

Bessent’s Interest Rate Bet Could Be a Big Loser

JPMorgan Profit Beats on Wall Street Rebound; Raises Interest Income Forecast

JPMorgan’s Surprise Dealmaking Gain Shows Tariff Fear Easing

At Vanguard, the Man From BlackRock Ushers in a Quiet Revolution

Walleye, Former Trader Spar Over Hedge Fund’s Non-Compete Terms

Nvidia Wins OK to Sell AI Chip to China Again After CEO Meets Trump

Elon Musk Floats a New Source of Funding for xAI: Tesla

Meta’s New Superintelligence Lab Is Discussing Major A.I. Strategy Changes

Their Water Taps Ran Dry When Meta Built Next Door

AMD Says It Will Restart MI308 Sales to China After US Review

Federal Workers’ ‘Emotional Roller Coaster’: Fired, Rehired, Fired Again

PBS and NPR’s Last-Ditch Fight to Save Funding

The D.E.I. Industry, Scorned by the White House, Turns to ‘Safer’ Topics

Making Immigration Great Again

After Devastating Winter Losses, Another Threat Looms for U.S. Beekeepers

Another Casualty in the Tariff Wars: The Always-in-Season Tomato

Stealth Stake Sales Helped UnitedHealth Beat Wall Street Targets

Amazon Prime Day Is Past Its Prime

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Morning News: July 14, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on July 14th, 2025 at 7:04 am

Japanese Bonds Tumble as Fiscal Worries Mount Before Election

China Is Buying Appliances and iPhones. What Happens When the Subsidies Stop?

China’s Exports Beat Expectations After Trade Truce With U.S.

China Shrugs Off Tariffs to Extend Its Manufacturing Dominance

Your Next Lawn Chair Is Coming From Vietnam, but It’s Still Kind of Chinese

Under Attack by Trump’s Tariffs, Asian Countries Seek Out Better Friends

India’s Foreign Minister Sees Progress in China Ties on First Visit Since 2020

Trump Tariff Salvos Push Economies to Seek to Broaden Trade Ties

Tariffs on Brazil Could Leave Coffee Drinkers With a Headache

EU Trade Chief to Contact U.S. Officials After 30% Tariff Threat

Higher Tariffs Would Likely Spur ECB to Further Cut Rates

How Trump’s Latest Tariff Threat Risks Deeper Damage to Europe’s Economy

The Race Is On to Build U.S. Copper Mines After Trump Pledges Higher Tariffs

Trump’s Tax Law Throws Lifeline to Unloved Energy and Climate Sectors

Jane Street Deposits $567 Million So It Can Resume India Trading

Plunging Dollar Leaves American Travelers With Less Buying Power This Summer

Economists Are The Only Barrier To A Return To The Gold Standard

Bitcoin Soars Past $120,000 as US Congress Starts ‘Crypto Week’

The Fed Is Built to Resist Trump’s Meddling

US Bank M&A Hopes Revive Under Trump Regulators

Food Banks Are Running Out of Food Exactly When More Americans Will Need Them

A ‘100% American’ Farm Workforce? That’s Delusional

Private-Equity Firms Bain and Kohlberg Make Another Big Bet on Biopharma Industry

China Biotech’s Stunning Advance Is Changing the World’s Drug Pipeline

The Future of Weather Prediction Is Here. Maybe.

Factories Were Pushed Out of Cities. Their Return Could Revive Downtowns.

America Is Losing Its Intelligence

Drones Are Key to Winning Wars Now. The U.S. Makes Hardly Any.

Trump to Send Patriots to Ukraine, US ‘Not Paying’ for Them

Jensen Huang Talks Up Nvidia’s Strategic Value to US as He Heads to China

China Is Poised to Buy More EVs Than Gas-Only Cars This Year

Musk Says Tesla Shareholders Will Vote on xAI Investment

With $217 Million in Ticket Sales, ‘Superman’ Helps Save Warner Bros., Too

The Kids Are All Right (Just Not at a Brewery)

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Morning News: July 11, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on July 11th, 2025 at 7:03 am

Global Oil Supply to Rise Faster Than Expected, IEA Says

Saudis Lift Oil Output Above Quota in Rare OPEC+ Breach

ECB to Be ‘Pragmatic’ in Policing Banks’ Carbon Transition Plans

ECB’s Bar for Another Rate Cut Is High, Schnabel Says

U.K. Economy Unexpectedly Slumps to Second Straight Month of Contraction

St. Kitts & Nevis Welcomes Citizenship by Investment

Trump’s Seesawing on Tariffs Gives the World Whiplash

Trump Escalates Canada Trade Fight With 35% Tariff Threat

The Mystery of Trump’s 25% Tariff Threat on Kazakhstan

Policy or Cudgel? A Trade Economist on Trump’s Hardball Tariffs.

Looming Copper Tariffs Leave Companies Scrambling: ‘Prices Will Go Up’

Trump’s Unsung Economic Booster: Deregulation

America Can’t Seem to Shake Reliance on China as Factory Floor

How a Luggage Manufacturer in Colorado Has Survived Trump’s Trade War. So Far.

Cost of Hedging for Declines in Rand, Real Soars on Tariff Peril

Big US Banks Set to Post Trading Gains on Trump’s Tariff Turmoil

Jamie Dimon Has a Blunt Message for Europe: ‘You’re Losing’

Deficit Hysteria Brings To Mind Reactions to the Reagan Tax Cuts

Dudley: Three Reasons the Fed Will Stand Pat on Interest Rates

Welcome to Your Conviction-Light Stock Rally

Social Security Needs More Than Risky Wagers

Trump’s $100 Million Crypto Mystery Man

Binance Aided Trump Crypto Firm Before Founder CZ Sought Pardon

Conservatives Adopt Left-Wing Tactics To Allegedly Fix Universities

Sam Altman Is Up, Tim Cook Is Down: Big Tech’s Trump Scorecard

Prime Day Shoppers Scour Amazon and Rivals for the Best Price

Why the Business World Can’t Let Go of Landline Phones

FDA Offers to Trade Faster Drug Reviews for Lower US Prices

Ford Breaks Annual Record for Safety Recalls Within First Six Months of Year

The Quiet Comeback of Cheap Long-Haul Flights

Saving a Studio? This Looks Like a Job for Superman!

Billionaire Ferrero Clan Joins Rival Mars in Looking Beyond Chocolate

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Morning News: July 10, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on July 10th, 2025 at 7:07 am

Oil Age Is Far From Over, OPEC Says

Tariff Anxiety Spreading Across Japan, BOJ Report Shows

Bank of Korea Holds Rates as Growth Concerns Ebb

Irish Factory Output Rebounds as Exports to U.S. Rise

Trump’s Foreign-Aid Cuts Are Ending Lives — and US Influence

Trump’s 50% Levy on Brazil Shows World Nothing Is Off Limits

50% Tariffs Are About Punishment, Not Trade

Brazil’s Lula Just Got a Huge Gift From the White House

Copper Costs Were Climbing Even Before Trump’s Tariffs

Trump Fuels Fear, Rage and Hope in California’s Central Valley

His Start-Up May Not Survive Chaotic Rollout of Trump’s Tariffs

Ex-Goldman Partner’s Investment Firm Issues $1 Billion in Homebuilder Loans

The GOP’s Medicaid Cuts Have a Very Convenient Timeline

Canada Sees US Asylum Claim Surge as Both Nations Harden Borders

Humbled Thai Billionaire Is a Warning to Trump-Era Populists

To Limit the Federal Government, Texas Should Levy a State Income Tax

A Hazy Inflation Outlook Divides the Fed

What Division Inside the Fed Means for Future Interest-Rate Cuts

Head of S.E.C.’s Crypto Task Force Says ‘Tokenized’ Stocks Are Securities

A $500 Billion Wall of Money Will Lift the Stock Market in the Second Half, Says JPMorgan

Private-Markets Tech Provider iCapital Raises $820 Million

Why Buyout Giants Are Investing in Each Other’s Deals

Navellier: A New Industrial Revolution Starts July 22 – Here’s Your Front-Row Seat

‘Show Your Papers’ Threatens Life On the Internet

European Union Unveils Rules for Powerful A.I. Systems

Yaccarino’s Break From Musk Was Months in the Making

Yaccarino Exit From X Lets Musk Shun Ads, Put Focus on AI

Tesla Shareholders Press Board to Schedule Annual Meeting

How Volkswagen’s Electric Bus Went From American Flagship to Flop

Delta Air Lines Shares Jump Despite Travel Slowdown

City-Run Supermarkets Aren’t New. But No One’s Tried Them in a City Like New York

Froot Loops Maker WK Kellogg Soars 50% on Reports of Ferrero Nearing Buyout

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Morning News: July 9, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on July 9th, 2025 at 7:03 am

New Zealand’s Central Bank Keeps Rates on Hold as Inflation Risks Simmer

Malaysia’s Central Bank Cuts Rates for First Time in Five Years

Increased Hedging of U.S. Exposure by Foreign Investors May Weaken Dollar, BOE Says

Without Remedy, Countries With Aging Populations Are Set For Weaker Income Growth, Says OECD

With Taxes and Tariffs in Place, Trump Takes Reins of U.S. Economy

Deep In a Fiscal Hole, Congress Just Keeps Digging

Lawrence Summers: This Law Made Me Ashamed of My Country

Let the Market Punish Corporate Mistakes, Not the Federal Government

Trump Didn’t Always Tout Tariffs. Now He Sees Them as a Way to Flex Power.

Trump’s New Tariffs: The Bull Market’s Next Big Test

Wall Street’s Trump TACO Trade Has a Chicken and an Egg Problem

The Paradox of Trump’s Tariff Policy

Warburg Predicts Comparable US Tariffs Across Asean Countries

Copper Market in Turmoil as Trump Touts 50% Tariff on US Imports

U.S. Ports Appeal for Delay to Tariffs on Chinese Cranes

Trump Delayed Reciprocal Tariffs After Bessent Wanted More Time on Deals

Bessent Steps Up Criticism of Fed as Auditions for Chair Intensify

Powell’s Successor May Struggle to Deliver the Rate Cuts Trump Wants

As Truth Social Business Struggles, Trump Media Goes Big on Crypto

The ‘Trump Pump’: How Crypto Lobbying Won Over a President

Goldman Demands an Oath From Junior Bankers to Fend Off Private Equity Poaching

Someone Will Look Dumb in $9 Billion AI Merger

‘Vibe Coding’ Has Arrived for Businesses

Poland to Report Musk’s Chatbot Grok to EU for Offensive Comments

The Deep Thinker Rising Through a Shallow Pentagon

Poland Scraps Coal Spinoff Plan, Eyes New Support for Utilities

Merck to Buy Verona for $10 Billion as Patent Cliff Looms

Prosecutors Question Doctors About UnitedHealth’s Medicare Billing Practices

Youth Sports Are a $40 Billion Business. Private Equity Is Taking Notice.

Patrón’s ‘Additive-Free’ Claims Rattled Tequila Regulators. Its New Ads Poke Fun at Their Rules.

Struggling Brewers Push To Make Nonalcoholic Beer More Than a Fad

Matcha Lovers Are Turning Against Each Other Over Global Shortage

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CWS Market Review – July 8, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on July 8th, 2025 at 5:43 pm

(This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

If you like market anniversaries, then you’ll be happy to learn that today is the 93rd anniversary of the mega low. On July 8, 1932, the Dow closed at 41.22. In 1929, it peaked at 381.17. By March 6, 1937, the Dow rose 371%. That’s still the greatest rally in history. All you had to do was time it perfectly.

Fortunately, the world is a wealthier place than it was in the 1930s. Alas, we still have tariffs. After hitting a new all-time high last week, the stock market started this week a bit on the weak side. Once again, tariffs are the problem.

It’s not a coincidence that the stock market bottomed in April right as President Trump announced a 90-day pause to his tariffs. The stock market has rallied briskly ever since – not like 1932, but still pretty good.

I think the message is loud and clear: Wall Street hates tariffs.

Yesterday, however, the president announced steep tariffs on 14 countries that are set to take effect on August 1. The market gods were less than pleased.

According to the president’s letters, goods that are imported to the United States from Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Kazakhstan, Tunisia and several others will face a 25% tariff.

Goods from South Africa and Bosnia will face a 30% rate and Indonesia will have a 32% rate. The president allowed that the tariff rates are open to negotiation depending on each country’s relationship with the United States. The president wrote, “You will never be disappointed with The United States of America.”

In April, Trump imposed steep rates on several countries but the drop in the stock market caused him to announce his 90-day pause. As it turns out, the rates were in effect for only a few hours before Trump delayed them. I guess someone was disappointed. The delay period was about to end this week, but the president extended the pause for another three weeks.

This is where things get a little messy. President Trump has consistently pointed to trade deficits as proof of unfair trade practices, but that’s not necessarily the case. Trade deficits can happen for many reasons, and they can often be beneficial.

Trump’s reciprocal tariffs went as high as 125% on China, but the president was eagerly looking to strike some deals. The president said that the delay was because so many countries wanted to make deals with the U.S.

The issue got more complicated in May when the president’s reciprocal tariffs were struck down by a federal district court. The tariffs are in still effect while the federal courts are looking at the issue.

There are also targeted tariffs. For example, steel and aluminum are dinged at a 50% rate but the U.K. is exempt. Under U.S. law, the president can place tariffs if they’re related to national security.

I’m not sure what the outcome of these tariffs will be. The matter is far from settled and there are many exceptions. For example, Japan and South Korea export millions of cars to the U.S. and both countries will face 25% tariffs.

Then there’s the issue of China. According to the Wall Street Journal, “the Trump administration has for now settled on a tariff of 55% on Chinese imports.” That reflects a lowering of the initial rate to 30% which comes on top of a 25% tariff that existed before Trump took office.

The uncertainty of the tariff policy is having a major impact on issues like investment decisions. Of course, the Federal Reserve has been slow to lower interest rates, but the Fed is also looking out for higher prices from higher tariffs.

There are first-order effects of higher tariffs. For example, economists expect that tariffs will hold back the economy because it will dampen the demand for goods made outside the U.S., but there are other considerations which may not be fully expected.

The policy uncertainty could lead companies to hold off on expansion plans and that could curb the job market. We’re in a position where we don’t know what we don’t know.

The WSJ noted that Allianz, the German insurance company, slashed its growth estimate for the U.S. economy this year from 2.8% to 1.4%, and those forecasts were based on the current level of tariffs.

An Increasingly Narrow Market

This uncertainty is weighing on the market. One potentially troubling sign has been how narrow the stock market’s advance has become. In plain English, that means that fewer stocks are doing the heavy lifting.

On the NYSE, the number of stocks making a new high outpaced those making new lows by only 88 stocks. Historically, whenever that number drops below 100, the stock market hasn’t done very well over the coming months.

Large-cap tech stocks have resumed their leadership while most of the rest of the market has been fairly quiet. Since the market’s low in April, the Magnificent Seven stocks have outpaced the overall market. Research from Bloomberg shows that only 10% of the S&P 500 is driving the market. That’s down from 22% in previous years.

I also like to look at the S&P 500 equal weighted index. In that index, each stock weighs the same: 0.2% of the index. The regular S&P 500 is weighted by market cap. The S&P 500 equal weighted hasn’t made a new high in eight months.

Here’s a look at how the S&P 500 (in blue) has outpaced the Equal Weight (in red) over the last three months:

I suspect that the market will broaden out once the Fed starts to cut rates. Lower short-term rates are usually better for more conservative stocks along with dividend payers.

Speaking of dividends, there’s a fascinating ETF about to debut on the stock market. This week, Roundhill Investments will launch the S&P 500 No Dividend Target ETF. The ticker symbol will be XDIV.

The ETF aims to mimic the S&P 500 but pay no dividends. The benefit of not paying dividends is that it won’t have to pay taxes on dividends. How can it do that? The fund will sell holdings just before their dividend dates.

This is a great way to grow your wealth while avoiding the taxman. Of course, if you sell the ETF for a profit, you’ll still be liable for capital gains.

XDIV plans to invest in other S&P 500 Index funds but will sell positions just before the ex-dividend date. According to Bloomberg, the fund will then rotate from one such index fund into another that isn’t about to pay a distribution.

The goal of the fund is to skip the dividend while avoiding the price dip. It’s an ingenious idea. There are already funds that invest in non-dividend paying stocks of the S&P 500. I’ve often wondered if you could build a fund that reasonably mimicked the S&P 500 without using dividend-paying stocks. You probably could, but it would be complicated. XDIV aims to do it the smart and easy way.

This will probably be another quiet week on Wall Street, but next week might be busier. We’ll have our first Buy List earnings report. On Tuesday, we’ll get the inflation report for June. The retail sales report will be due out on Thursday. That’s all for now. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

– Eddy

Morning News: July 8, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on July 8th, 2025 at 7:03 am

Russian Drone Documents Draw Line From China to Ukraine’s Skies

World Peace Requires Free Trade In Weaponry

Netanyahu Will Never Have a Better Moment to Claim Victory

Trump’s New Trade Threats Set Off Global Scramble to Avoid Tariffs

Where Things Stand With Trump’s Tariffs

Tariff Uncertainty Likely to Weigh on Global Growth Even After Extended Talks

7 Rounds of Talks and No Deal: Japan Girds for New Era of U.S. Relations

Japan Determined to Strike Fair Trade Deal With U.S.

South Korea Keeps Its Chin Up as Trump Wields Tariff Threat

German Exports Fall Again as Tariffs Drag on Economy

The Businessman Grateful for Trump’s Tariffs

Emerging Currencies Gain as Focus Shifts to More Trade Talks

TSA to Allow Shoes to Stay On for Airport Security Screening

Fed Governor Waller Is Trump’s Best Powell Replacement

Markets Will Tell Us When We’ve Borrowed Too Much

Scant Winners in S&P 500’s Record-Setting March Are Warning Sign

What If This Time Really Is Different for Investors?

Banking’s Newest CEO Plots a Comeback for Most Unloved Stock

U.S. Small-Business Sentiment Darkens Slightly

Critiquing Second Wave Corporate Opportunism

Amazon Turns Prime Day Into Prime Week

OpenAI and Microsoft Bankroll New A.I. Training for Teachers

What to Know About the Collapse of the F.D.A.

EU Climate Skeptics Oversee Divisive 2040 Goal in Parliament

Norway’s $15 Billion in Oil Bets Is a Show of Faith in Long-Term Demand

EV Racing Struggles as Climate Action Falls on Priority List

Tesla Is in Deeper Trouble Than You Think

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Morning News: July 7, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on July 7th, 2025 at 7:08 am

What Is American Exceptionalism, and Is It Coming to an End?

Looking Beyond the U.S. for Trade, Canada Begins Shipping Natural Gas to Asia

Why Oil Drillers Are Investing Big in South America

Can Taiwan Really Disconnect Its Economy From China?

South Korea’s Legislature Approves Fiscal Stimulus

Jane Street’s Cash Machine Comes to an Abrupt Halt in India

Saudi Stc Backs Debt Trading Firm Moving Into Private Credit

German Industrial Production Rebounds Despite Tariff Pressure

Trump Keeps Foreign Countries on Edge as Tariff Deadline Nears

Bangladesh Expects ‘Positive Outcome’ With US on Trade Deal

Trump Faces Crucial Week for Reaching Trade Deals

Trump Sets Aug. 1 Start for Tariffs Ahead of Wednesday Deadline

America, This Isn’t How You Lower Interest Rates

Misfiring Models Leave Wall Street Currency Traders Flying Blind

US SEC’s Guidance is First Step Toward Rules Governing Crypto ETFs

DOGE Is Surely Something for ‘Others’ to Endure, Not Me

From Food Aid to Dog Chow? How Trump’s Cuts Hurt Kansas Farmers.

First-Time Home Buyers Are MIA. Landlords Are the Winners.

Elon Musk Is Running Out of Road in China

Tesla Slides on Concern Musk’s New Party Will Exacerbate Slump

Tesla Is More a Musk Dream Stock Than a Meme Stock

Has There Ever Been a Better Time to Buy an EV?

The Advertisers Spending Big in West Palm Beach Just to Reach Trump

The AI Talent War Is the Stuff of Steve Jobs’ Nightmares

She Wanted to Save the World From A.I. Then the Killings Started.

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