Morning News: August 9, 2019
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on August 9th, 2019 at 7:02 am

U.K. Economy Shrinks for First Time Since Wake of Crisis, Raising Brexit Stakes

Japan Posts Surprising Growth, but Economic Threats Loom

U.S. Holds Off on Huawei Licenses as China Halts Crop-Buying

Huawei Unveils Harmony, Its Answer to Android, in Survival Bid

Help for the Economy? Despite Grumbling, Trump Has Had Plenty

Malaysia Files Criminal Charges Against 17 Goldman Sachs Executives

Uber Loses $5 Billion, Misses Wall Street Targets Despite Easing Price War

Bayer Soars on Report of Proposed $8 Billion Roundup Settlement

Broadcom to Buy Symantec’s Enterprise Unit for $10.7 Billion in Software Push

America’s Obsession With Beef Is Killing Leather

Zillow’s Makeover Is Testing Investors’ Patience

Trade War Escalation Nudges U.S. Closer to Recession

Jeff Carter: Macroeconomic Landscape Shifting

Roger Nusbaum: Alternatives & There’s A Lot That’s Different But The Important Stuff Is The Same

Cullen Roche: Three Things I Think I Think – Recession Alert Edition

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Morning News: August 8, 2019
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on August 8th, 2019 at 7:06 am

China Sets Yuan Fixing Stronger Than Expected, Soothing Nerves

Powell Speaks, Trump Tweets, China Reacts, Markets Freak. Repeat

Recession Warning in Bond Market Sharpens, Adding Pressure on Fed

U.S. Government Contractors Get First Look at Huawei Ban

Facebook Wants to Integrate Instagram Direct Messages With Messenger

FedEx’s Amazon Freeze-Out Sets Up Delivery Wars

New York Times Shares Slide on Digital Ad Revenue Warning

The Secret History of ‘Easter Eggs’

Venture Capital Fuels Latam ‘Unicorns’ Expansion Beyond Borders

An Electric Harley Loses the Growl But Still Aims to Turn Heads

Money Managers With $74 Trillion Are Perched on Brink of Crisis

Joshua Brown: Negative Rates Could Happen in America, Too

Michael Batnick: Is This The Bottom?

Ben Carlson: Animal Spirits: The Bankrupt Barber & Cheap Money vs. Investor Psychology

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Morning News: August 7, 2019
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on August 7th, 2019 at 7:12 am

World Economy Edges Closer to a Recession as Trade Fears Spread

Circulating in China’s Financial System: More Than $200 Billion in I.O.U.s

Trump Dismisses Fears of Long-Lasting Trade War; China Sees Severe Global Impact

A Weak Dollar Could Help the U.S. Getting One Isn’t So Easy.

Tariff Fears Caused a U.S. Import Surge. Now Warehouses Are Full

Disney Shareholders, Your Thrill Ride Has Officially Begun

Alphabet’s DeepMind Takes on Billion-Dollar Debt and Loses $572 Million

SoftBank Says Vision Fund 2 Could Start Investing Soon, Bags Big Gains on First

Uber Wants to Sell You Train Tickets. And Be Your Bus Service, Too.

Lanxess, Bayer Sell Chemical Park Operator to Macquarie for $3.9 Billion

Legal Shield for Websites Rattles Under Onslaught of Hate Speech

Man Accused Of Bribing AT&T Employees In Conspiracy To Unlock Millions Of Phones

Nick Maggiulli: When Money Dies

Howard Lindzon: How To Jump On A Rocketship…

Jeff Miller: Fear Induced Trading Mistakes

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Big Miss for Disney
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on August 6th, 2019 at 4:11 pm

The Walt Disney Company (DIS) today reported quarterly earnings for its third fiscal quarter ended June 29, 2019. Diluted earnings per share (EPS) from continuing operations for the quarter decreased 59% to $0.79 from $1.95 in the prior-year quarter. Excluding certain items affecting comparability(1), EPS for the quarter decreased 28% to $1.35 from $1.87 in the prior-year quarter. EPS from continuing operations for the nine months ended June 29, 2019 decreased to $5.98 from $6.81 in the prior-year period. Excluding certain items affecting comparability(1), EPS from continuing operations for the nine months decreased 15% to $4.75 from $5.60 in the prior-year period.

“Our third-quarter results reflect our efforts to effectively integrate the 21st Century Fox assets to enhance and advance our strategic transformation,” said Robert A. Iger, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, The Walt Disney Company. “I’d like to congratulate The Walt Disney Studios for reaching $8 billion at the global box office so far this year–a new industry record–thanks to the stellar performance of our Marvel, Pixar and Disney films. The incredible popularity of Disney’s brands and franchises positions us well as we launch Disney+, and the addition of original and library content from Fox will only further strengthen our direct-to-consumer offerings.”

On March 20, 2019, the Company acquired Twenty-First Century Fox (21CF) for cash and the issuance of 307 million shares. Results for the current quarter and nine months reflect the consolidation of 21CF and Hulu LLC (Hulu) activities.

Q2 2019 Earnings Calendar
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on August 6th, 2019 at 4:02 pm

That’s it for the Q2 2019 earnings season for our Buy List stocks. Here’s a list of reporting dates, Wall Street’s consensus estimates and actual reported results.

Becton, Dickinson Earned $3.08 per Share for Q2
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on August 6th, 2019 at 11:15 am

Here’s today’s earnings report from Becton, Dickinson (BDX)

BD (Becton, Dickinson and Company) (BDX), a leading global medical technology company, today reported quarterly revenues of $4.350 billion for the third fiscal quarter ended June 30, 2019. This represents an increase of 1.7 percent over the prior-year period. On a comparable, currency-neutral basis, revenues increased 5.7 percent over the prior-year period.

“Third quarter performance was strong. Our revenues highlight the breadth and diversity of the growth drivers in our portfolio, and we are seeing strength across all three segments,” said Vincent A. Forlenza, chairman and CEO. “As anticipated, our performance has accelerated and we expect this momentum to continue. We remain confident in our outlook for fiscal year 2019 and our ability to deliver value to customers and shareholders.”

Third Quarter and Nine-Month Fiscal 2019 Operating Results
As reported, diluted earnings per share for the third quarter were $1.51, compared with $2.03 in the prior-year period. This represents a decrease of 25.6 percent. Adjusted diluted earnings per share were $3.08, compared with $2.91 in the prior-year period. This represents an increase in adjusted diluted earnings per share of 5.8 percent, or 14.8 percent on a currency-neutral basis.

And guidance:

The company reaffirms its full fiscal year 2019 revenue and adjusted diluted earnings per share guidance.

As reported, the company continues to expect full fiscal year 2019 revenues to increase 8.0 to 9.0 percent. The company continues to estimate full fiscal year 2019 revenues will increase 5.0 to 6.0 percent on a comparable, currency-neutral basis.

The company continues to expect adjusted diluted earnings per share to be between $11.65 and $11.75. This represents growth of approximately 12.0 percent on a currency-neutral basis over fiscal 2018 adjusted diluted earnings per share of $11.01, or growth of approximately 6.0 to 7.0 percent including the estimated unfavorable impact of foreign currency.

Morning News: August 6, 2019
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on August 6th, 2019 at 7:05 am

‘Ready to Rumble’: U.S.-China Fight Puts World Economy on the Brink

China Acts to Limit Yuan Plunge, Bringing Some Relief to Markets

Good Will Is a Thing of the Past in the Trade War

India Raises Cost of Refinery Project with Aramco by 36%

Why Bitcoin Is Rising As Stocks and the Yuan Fall

Former Fed Chiefs Unite in Call on Trump to End Powell Threats

Dear Walmart C.E.O.: You Have the Power to Curb Gun Violence. Do It.

Barneys Files for Bankruptcy As Rents Rise and Visitors Fall

Gannett, the Owner of USA Today, Is About to Get a Whole Lot Bigger

Apple, Goldman Sachs Start Issuing Apple Cards to Consumers

For J.C. Penney CEO, Debt Haunts Turnaround Bid

Michael Batnick: Yuan Redux

Roger Nusbaum: Tariff Panic

Cullen Roche: How I Think of the Stock Market During its Ups and Downs

Ben Carlson: The Big Lie in Personal Finance & Re-Kindled: Superforecasting

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The Yuan Falls and Takes Us With It
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on August 5th, 2019 at 10:46 am

The Chinese government allowed the yuan to fall below seven to the dollar. This is a pretty big deal because it had previously supported that level.

This is a strike back from the PRC government to President Trump’s latest round of tariffs. The Chinese government also said it would forego buying U.S. agricultural products.

The Dow has been down as much as 600 points this morning. The problem is we don’t know how far this can escalate. If you recall, the U.S. market was knocked four years ago when the yuan was last devalued.

Morning News: August 5, 2019
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on August 5th, 2019 at 7:14 am

China Hits Back at Trump by Weakening Yuan, Halting Crop Imports

Stocks Tumble, Treasuries Surge as the Yuan Hits 7

Traders Brace for Full-Blown Currency War as China’s Yuan Sinks

Russians Pull Out Credit Cards, and Consumer Debt Spirals

Drug Industry Urges Canada to Act Early on U.S. Import Plan

Bad Times in Tech? Not if You’re a Start-Up Serving Other Start-Ups

Promotions and Patriotism: ‘Battle Mode’ Huawei Sees China Smartphone Sales Surge

Murdoch’s Fox Corp to Buy Fintech Credible Labs in $397 Million Deal

New Japanese Flying Car Gets Off the Ground, for About a Minute

China’s Didi Chuxing Launches Autonomous Driving Unit as Independent Company

HSBC’s Chief Steps Down, in a Surprise

In the Wake of Latest Massacres, Walmart is Pressured to Stop Selling Guns

Cullen Roche: Three Things I Think I Think – Rate Cut Edition

Jeff Miller: Weighing the Week Ahead: Have the Facts Changed Your Mind?

Joshua Brown: Beyond Meat “Rage Dad” Sweeps Financial Twitter – What Do You Think?

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July NFP = +164K
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on August 2nd, 2019 at 11:19 am

The jobs machine continues. The U.S. economy created 164,000 net new jobs last month. The unemployment rate stayed at 3.7%.

Overall, the job market is healthy, and the data were broadly in line with expectations. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had forecast a gain of 165,000 new jobs in July, a 3.6% unemployment rate and 3.1% annual wage growth.

Through the first seven months of the year, employers have added 165,000 jobs a month, on average, below 2018’s average monthly pace of 223,000.

The decadelong U.S. expansion became the longest on record in July. While there is no rule that says the expansion must end, Friday’s jobs report adds to the evidence it is still solid but losing some steam.

Gross domestic product, a broad measure of goods and services across the economy, increased at a 2.1% annual rate in the second quarter, down sharply from a 3.1% pace in the first quarter. Business spending has faltered in recent months. Manufacturing output has declined since the end of 2018, though more recently it has ticked up slightly.