Moody’s Earned $2.07 per Share
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on April 24th, 2019 at 7:19 am

1Q19 revenue of $1.1 billion up 1% from 1Q18
1Q19 diluted EPS of $1.93 up 1%; adjusted diluted EPS of $2.07 up 2% from 1Q181; both aided by a lower effective tax rate
Record 1Q19 Moody’s Analytics revenue of $472.0 million up 16%, with double-digit growth across all business lines
Affirming FY 2019 diluted EPS and adjusted diluted EPS guidance ranges of $7.30 to $7.55 and $7.85 to $8.10, respectively

Moody’s Corporation (MCO) today announced results for the first quarter of 2019, as well as provided its current outlook for full year 2019.

“Moody’s first quarter revenue reflected robust performance in Moody’s Analytics across all business lines. This strength was largely offset by an expected decline in Moody’s Investors Service’s revenue as the business faced challenging year-over-year debt issuance comparisons,” said Raymond McDaniel, President and Chief Executive Officer of Moody’s. “We are affirming our full year 2019 guidance of $7.30 to $7.55 for diluted EPS and $7.85 to $8.10 for adjusted diluted EPS.”

MCO FIRST QUARTER REVENUE UP 1%

Moody’s Corporation reported revenue of $1.1 billion for the three months ended March 31, 2019, up 1% from the prior-year period.

U.S. revenue was $612.1 million, up 2%, and non-U.S. revenue was $530.0 million, approximately flat to the prior-year period. Revenue generated outside the U.S. constituted 46% of total revenue, down from 47% in the prior-year period. Foreign currency translation unfavorably impacted Moody’s revenue by 2%.

Moody’s Investors Service (MIS) First Quarter Revenue Down 7%

Revenue for MIS for the first quarter of 2019 was $670.1 million, down 7% from the prior-year period, compared to a 14% decline in issuance activity2. U.S. revenue was $411.2 million, down 5%, and non-U.S. revenue was $258.9 million, down 10%. Foreign currency translation unfavorably impacted MIS revenue by 2%. The MIS adjusted operating margin was 54.9%.

Corporate finance revenue was $355.4 million, down 9% from the prior-year period. This result was primarily driven by a decline in global bank loan issuance, partially offset by increased U.S. and EMEA investment grade bond activity. U.S. and non-U.S. corporate finance revenues were down 6% and 15%, respectively.

Structured finance revenue was $100.7 million, down 15% from the prior-year period. This result primarily reflected lower U.S. and EMEA collateralized loan obligation (CLO) refinancing activity. U.S. and non-U.S. structured finance revenues were down 16% and 12%, respectively.

Financial institutions revenue was $115.8 million, up 1% from the prior-year period. U.S. financial institutions revenue was down 5%, while non-U.S. revenue was up 6%.

Public, project and infrastructure finance revenue was $92.7 million, down 1% from the prior-year period. This result reflected a slow start to the year in non-U.S. infrastructure finance issuance, principally in EMEA, largely offset by higher U.S. municipal issuance against a low prior-year comparable. U.S. public, project and infrastructure finance revenue was up 13%, while non-U.S. revenue was down 18%.

Moody’s Analytics (MA) First Quarter Revenue Up 16%

Revenue for MA for the first quarter of 2019 was $472.0 million, up 16% from the prior-year period. U.S. revenue was $200.9 million, up 22%, and non-U.S. revenue was $271.1 million, up 12%. Foreign currency translation unfavorably impacted MA revenue by 3%. Organic MA revenue for the first quarter of 2019, which excluded Reis and Omega Performance revenues, was $460.6 million, up 13% from the prior-year period. The MA adjusted operating margin was 28.1%.

Research, data and analytics (RD&A) revenue was $307.7 million, up 15% from the prior-year period. U.S. and non-U.S. RD&A revenues were up 20% and 12%, respectively. Organic RD&A revenue, which excluded Reis revenue, was $298.8 million, up 12%, driven by strong sales growth at Bureau van Dijk in the second half of 2018, as well as sales of credit research and ratings data feeds.

Enterprise risk solutions (ERS) revenue was $121.9 million, up 19% from the prior-year period. This result reflected growth in fourth quarter 2018 and first quarter 2019 subscription sales, and the business continued to successfully execute on the transition toward a software-as-a-service model. U.S. and non-U.S. ERS revenues were up 26% and 15%, respectively.

Professional services revenue was $42.4 million, up 13% from the prior-year period. U.S. and non-U.S. professional services revenues were up 34% and 2%, respectively. Organic professional services revenue, which excluded Omega Performance revenue, was $39.9 million, up 6% from the prior-year period.

Morning News: April 24, 2019
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on April 24th, 2019 at 7:02 am

Europe Not Feeling Much Pain From Trump Tariffs, Central Bank Says

SoftBank Bets $1 Billion on Battered Payments Firm Wirecard

Blockbuster Battle Between Steven Spielberg and Netflix Fizzles

Behind Airbnb’s Bet on Show Business to Hook Travelers

Adding to Ghosn Woes, Nissan Slashes Profit Outlook to Near-Decade Low

Samsung Plans $116 Billion Investment in Non-Memory Chips to Challenge TSMC, Qualcomm

Want to Make Millions and Pay No Taxes? Try Real Estate

John McAfee Vows to Unmask Bitcoin’s Satoshi Nakamoto

Made in China, Exported to the World: The Surveillance State

Verizon Beats on Earnings as Wireless Sales Hit $22.7 Billion

Mario Batali’s Former Empire Is Thriving—as Long as He Stays Away

Walgreens Raises Tobacco-Buying Age to 21, Strengthening a Consensus

Nick Maggiulli: The Problem With Most Financial Advice

Lawrence Hamtil: The Low Volatility – Momentum Barbell: S&P vs MSCI Indices

Cullen Roche: Was the GFC a Once-in-a-Lifetime Event?

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Earnings from Sherwin-Williams and Stryker
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on April 23rd, 2019 at 6:13 pm

We had two earnings reports today. Before the opening bell, Sherwin-Williams (SHW) reported Q1 earnings of $3.60 per share. That was below estimates of $3.69 per share. Sales rose 1.9% to $4.04 billion. Importantly, the company didn’t alter its full-year outlook of $20.40 to $21.40, which excludes acquisition costs. That compares with $18.53 per share a year ago. For Q2, Sherwin expects sales to rise by 2% to 5%. For the full year, they expect sales to rise by 4% to 7%.

Commenting on the first quarter, John G. Morikis, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, said, “We made good progress on our pricing initiatives across all segments during the quarter and effectively managed SG&A spending, but volumes fell short of expectations due to a slower start to the architectural painting season in North America and continued challenging conditions in many end markets outside North America. Despite the volume shortfall and higher year-over-year raw material costs, consolidated Company adjusted gross margin, which excludes acquisition-related costs, improved sequentially and was flat year-over-year. We expect the positive trend in gross margin and operating expense control to continue as the year progresses, and volume growth should also improve over the balance of the year, particularly in the back half.

“Looking at our performance by segment, in The Americas Group, despite a strong backlog and project pipeline reported by many of our professional customers, volume growth in the quarter was slower than expected. We continued to invest by opening 15 net new store locations in The Americas Group during the quarter. In our Consumer Brands Group, most of the softness in demand in the quarter was in markets outside North America. Consumer Brands Group adjusted segment operating margin in the first quarter expanded sequentially and year-over-year, and we are very well positioned across all North American retail channels heading into the important spring selling season. Performance Coatings Group achieved modest sales growth and increased adjusted segment operating margin in the quarter against year-over-year raw material pressure.

Shares of SHW looked like they were going to drop on Tuesday, but the shares closed higher by 1.9% on the day.

Stryker (SYK) reported Q1 earnings of $1.88 per share, which beat the Street by four cents per share. That’s an increase of 11.9% over last year. Net sales rose 8.5% to $3.5 billion, and organic net sales increased by 7.3%. For the quarter, Stryker’s adjusted operating margin was 25.1%.

Based on our first quarter performance we now expect 2019 organic net sales growth to be in the range of 6.8% to 7.5% and expect adjusted net earnings per diluted share to be in the range of $8.05 to $8.20.

For the second quarter we expect adjusted net earnings per diluted share to be in the range of $1.90 to $1.95.

If foreign currency exchange rates hold near current levels, we expect net sales in the second quarter will be negatively impacted by approximately 1.5% and full year will be negatively impacted by approximately 1.0%, and net earnings per diluted share will be negatively impacted by $0.01 to $0.03 in the second quarter and negatively impacted by $0.05 to $0.10 in the full year.

Stryker raised the low end of 2019 guidance by five cents per share. Wall Street had been expecting $1.96 per share for Q2, and $8.13 per share for the entire year.

Morning News: April 23, 2019
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on April 23rd, 2019 at 7:05 am

A Vicious, Untreatable Killer Leaves China Guessing

Oil Climbs Toward $75 in London After Trump Tightens Screws on Iran

Fed Seems Resigned to Bubble Risk in Effort to Extend Expansion

After the Bust, Are Bitcoins More Like Tulip Mania or the Internet?

China’s Starbucks Challenger Files for U.S. IPO

Elon Musk Predicts Tesla Driverless Taxi Fleet Next Year

Lyft Underwriters Hail Promising Future as Uber Looms

This Estonian Start-Up Has Become a Thorn in Uber’s Side

China’s Bytedance Says India TikTok Ban Causing $500,000 Daily Loss, Risks Jobs

Beyond Meat Details Plans for Initial Public Offering

Cell Tower REITs: 5G’s True Killer App

Samsung Retrieving All Galaxy Fold Samples After Defect Reports

Ben Carlson: A Bad Year in the Bond Market is a Bad Day in the Stock Market

Joshua Brown: The Crucible

Howard Lindzon: India and The Internet…

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Morning News: April 22, 2019
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on April 22nd, 2019 at 7:04 am

U.S. Ending Iran Waivers Could Affect Oil Markets and Beyond

Free Speech Puts U.S. on ‘a Collision Course’ With Global Limits on Big Tech

Financial Market ‘Pause Party’ Makes Fed Rate Cut Less Likely

Trump’s Washing Machine Tariffs Stung Consumers While Lifting Corporate Profits

The Fed Is in Worse Shape Than the Economy as Post-Crisis Expansion Reaches a Decade

Uber, Lyft IPOs May Lead to Higher Fares

Huawei First-Quarter Revenue Grows 39% to $27 Billion Amid Heightened U.S. Pressure

Qualcomm: Why The Success Story Just Begins

Clorox and Unilever Want the Booming Bacteria Business to Thrive

Tesla Investigates Video of Parked Model S Exploding in Shanghai

America’s Elderly Are Twice as Likely to Work Now Than in 1985

Japanese Prosecutors Bring New Charges Against Carlos Ghosn

Joshua Brown: Investing in the Real World – Not a Backtest!

Roger Nusbaum: A New Tool For Considering Life Expectancy In Retirement Planning? & Healthspan & Financialspan

Michael Batnick: How to Stay Out of Debt & Why Didn’t You…

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CWS Market Review – April 19, 2019
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on April 19th, 2019 at 7:08 am

“Selling your winners and holding your losers is like cutting the flowers and watering the weeds.” – Peter Lynch

First-quarter earnings season is here, and we’re getting a good idea of what the first three months of the year were like. As with any earnings season, some stocks are soaring (like Qualcomm) and others falling on hard times (Bank of New York).

We’ve already had the first of our stock reports. Some companies have done well. Others, not so well. In this week’s issue of CWS Market Review, I’ll run down all of our Buy List earnings reports.

Next week will be even busier as seven of our Buy List stocks are due to report. On top of that, we’ll also get our first look at the Q1 GDP report. Before I get to this week’s earnings news, let’s look at the big jump we got from Disney.

Disney Soars to an All-Time High

I have to apologize for only briefly discussing Disney (DIS) last week. I don’t believe I gave their investor presentation the coverage it was due. Please forgive me. I hope the 11.5% price surge helped ease some of the pain.

Disney had a great rollout of its streaming service. I think the news on Disney has been so negative for so long that anything positive can help propel the shares. This week, the stock touched a new all-time high.

The company is serious about taking Netflix on, and they have an impressive service in Disney+. It’s also very competitive price-wise: $7 per month or $70 per year. Not only did Disney’s stock surge, but it held on to its gains and even pushed a little higher.

I supposed investor sentiment has been negative on Disney for years since it’s hard for some people to look positively on Disney. Even Disney critics have been impressed with Iger’s strategy. Content really is king, and it will be hard to compete against the Mouse House. This week, I’m raising my Buy Below on Disney to $135 per share. The next earnings report is due on May 8.

This Week’s Buy List Earnings Reports

Here’s a look at our Q1 Earnings Calendar so far.

Now let’s dive in. Signature Bank (SBNY) kicked off earnings season for us on Wednesday morning when the New York-based bank reported Q1 earnings of $2.65 per share. That was 12 cents below Wall Street’s consensus. Traders were not pleased. The shares fell 5.9% during Wednesday’s trading.

For the quarter, net interest margin was 2.75%. That’s down 11 basis points from a year ago. Total assets now stand at $48.55 billion. That’s an increase of 9.3% over last year’s Q1. Last quarter, the bank was hurt by a $9.4 million decline in pre-payment penalty income. Overall, this was a weak quarter for SBNY.

During the quarter, Signature bought back 173,193 shares for $22.9 million. While I’m not happy with Signature’s results last quarter, I’m still willing to stick by them. The stock slid about 5% on Wednesday, but we’re still doing well with SBNY this year (+22.9%). Signature Bank remains a buy up to $140 per share.

After the close on Wednesday, Eagle Bancorp (EGBN) reported adjusted earnings of $1.11 per share. That was one penny below estimates. That’s up from $1.04 per share one year ago.

Eagle is currently going through a transition after the former CEO, Ron Paul, announced his retirement. Susan G. Riel is the interim President and CEO. About the Q1 results, she noted, “The Company’s assets ended the quarter at $8.39 billion, representing 9% growth over the first quarter of 2018. First-quarter 2019 earnings resulted in a return on average assets of 1.62% (1.85% excluding nonrecurring costs as defined above) and a return-on-average tangible common equity of 13.38% (15.26% excluding nonrecurring costs as defined above).”

The shares pulled back some in Thursday’s trading, but nothing too severe. Eagle is a buy up to $55 per share.

I never would have guessed that Torchmark (TMK) would be an earnings standout, but here we are. Also after the bell on Wednesday, the life-insurance company reported Q1 earnings of $1.65 per share.

The key figure is net operating income which came in at $1.64 per diluted common share. That beat estimates by five cents per share compared with $1.47 per diluted common share from a year ago. The details look pretty good. Net income as an ROE was 12.9%. Net operating income as an ROE, excluding net unrealized gains on fixed maturities, was 14.7%.

Last quarter, Torchmark bought back 1.1 million shares. This quiet stock is now a 19% winner for us this year. Buy up to $91 per share.

Check Point Software (CHKP) had a decent earnings report, but poor guidance caused traders to knock 7.4% off the share price on Thursday. For Q1, the cyber-security firm earned $1.32 per share. That beat estimates by one penny per share. CEO Gil Shwed said, “We had good results in the first quarter with 13 percent growth in our security subscriptions including advanced solutions for Cloud and Mobile as well as SandBlast Zero day threat prevention.”

For the current quarter, Check Point said it sees revenues coming in between $474 million and $500 million. The consensus on the Street was for $486 million. But for earnings, CHKP sees EPS ranging between $1.32 and $1.40. Wall Street had been expecting $1.38 per share. I know the price drop is painful, but don’t be rattled. This is a good company. Buy up to $130 per share.

On Thursday, Danaher (DHR) reported Q1 earnings of $1.07 per share. That beat the street by six cents per share. Previously, the company had given us a range of $1 to $1.03 per share. This is an important time for Danaher. The company recently announced that it’s buying GE’s biopharma unit for $21.4 billion. The company also plans to spin off its dental business later this year.

For Q2, Danaher expects earnings to range between $1.13 and $1.16 per share. Danaher lowered its full-year guidance from $4.75 – $4.85 per share to $4.72 – $4.80 per share. There’s nothing wrong. This reflects the share dilution to buy GE Biopharma. The deal should close sometime in Q4.

Danaher’s CEO said, “During the first quarter, we achieved 5.5% core-revenue growth and believe we expanded our market-leading positions across a number of our businesses. Combined with high-single-digit adjusted-earnings-per -growth and good cash-flow generation, our performance is a testament to our team’s focused execution and the power of the Danaher Business System.”

The shares rallied 1.5% after the earnings report. Danaher is a buy up to $136 per share.

Next Week’s Earnings Reports

We have several earnings reports coming our way next week. On Tuesday, Sherwin-Williams and Stryker are due to report.

A few months ago, Sherwin-Williams (SHW) warned us that they weren’t going to have a good Q4, and they were right. The good news is that sales improved in December, but not by enough to make up the difference.

For 2019, Sherwin sees net sales rising 4% to 7% and earnings coming in between $20.40 and $21.40 per share. That’s a pretty good forecast, and it tells me the issues they had in Q4 may be over. Wall Street’s consensus for Q1 is for $3.69 per share.

For Q1, Stryker (SYK) sees earnings coming in between $1.80 and $1.85 per share. I think there’s a good chance for an earnings beat. Last earnings season, the orthopedics company beat earnings by three cents per share, and the stock jumped 11%. The company noted that they had the best organic growth in a decade. Stryker’s operating margins rose to 27.5%. That’s quite good. For the full year, they see earnings between $8 and $8.20 per share.

Moody’s (MCO) is our #1 performer this year, with a 35% gain. The credit-ratings agency reports earnings on Wednesday. The Q4 report wasn’t especially good, but it wrapped up a solid 2018 for Moody’s.

For 2019, Moody’s sees earnings of $7.85 to $8.10 per share. Wall Street had been expecting $7.94 per share. In February, the company bumped up its dividend by 14% to 50 cents per share. The company also announced that a $500 million accelerated share-repurchase program is expected to be completed during Q2. The consensus for Q1 is for $1.93 per share.

We have four Buy List stocks due to report next Thursday.

The last AFLAC (AFL) earnings report was quite good. The duck stock beat expectations and raised its dividend. That was its 36th consecutive annual dividend hike.

For 2019, AFLAC is looking for earnings of $4.10 to $4.30 per share. That assumes the yen trades at ¥110.39 to the dollar. AFLAC didn’t provide Q1 guidance, but Wall Street expects $1.06 per share.

I’m still enjoying the nice 10% pop we got from Cerner (CERN) last week. The company announced that it had reached an agreement with Starboard Value. As part of the agreement, Cerner will start paying a dividend. The company also increased its buyback authorization by $1.5 billion.

For Q1, Cerner expects earnings between 60 and 62 cents per share on revenue of $1.365 billion to $1.415 billion. For all of 2019, the company is looking for earnings between $2.57 and $2.67 per share on revenue of $5.65 billion to $5.85 billion.

Hershey’s (HSY) last earnings report wasn’t so sweet. Comparable-sales growth was flat. In North America, comparable sales fell 0.3%. Earnings came in at $1.26 per share, which was a penny below estimates. For the moment, the problem is pricing pressure. Quarterly sales rose 2.5% to $1.99 billion.

For 2019, Hershey sees earnings ranging between $5.63 and $5.74 per share. The consensus for Q1 is $1.46 per share.

Also on Thursday will be Raytheon (RTN). The CEO noted that Raytheon ended last year with record bookings and backlog which positions them “well for 2019 and beyond.”

For 2019, Raytheon expects EPS of $11.40 to $11.60 on sales of $28.6 to $29.1 billion. That’s a little light; I had been expecting $11.50 to $12 per share. Still, business is going well. For Q1, the consensus on Wall Street is for earnings of $2.47 per share.

That’s all for now. The news next week will again be dominated by earnings. Also, there will be some economic news. On Monday, the existing-home sales report comes out. That’s followed on Tuesday by the new-home sales report. Thursday is jobless claims and durable goods. Then on Friday, we get the first look at Q1 GDP. I’m expecting a number close to 2%. Be sure to keep checking the blog for daily updates. I’ll have more market analysis for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review!

– Eddy

Morning News: April 19, 2019
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on April 19th, 2019 at 7:05 am

Some Better-Than-Expected China Data Can’t Save the World Economy

Socialist! Capitalist! Economic Systems as Weapons in a War of Words

D.E. Shaw Is to Buck Industry Trend With 3-and-30 Fees

Amazon Gives Up on Chinese Domestic Shopping Business

Amazon Launches Free Music Streaming to Juice Alexa-Device Sales

Merger Talks of Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank Roil Emotions

I.P.O. Day for Pinterest and Zoom Ends With Shares Sharply Higher

National Enquirer to Be Sold to James Cohen, Heir to Hudson News Founder

U.S. Refiners Planning Major Plant Overhauls in Second Quarter

What This Week’s Apple-Qualcomm-Intel Dance Means for the Future of 5G

Nissan Slams Output Cut Report as ‘Completely Incorrect’

Ben Carlson: Recessions vs. Bear Markets & Money Made By Chance

Jeff Carter: Some Tips on Angel Investing

Jeff Miller: What Is Your Trading Timeframe Now?

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Morning News: April 18, 2019
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on April 18th, 2019 at 6:27 am

Stocks Erase Week’s Gains After Weak Manufacturing Surveys

Business Quietly Returns to Saudi Arabia After Khashoggi’s Murder

Treasury Issues Rules on Tax Breaks for Opportunity Zones

U.S. Antitrust Scrutiny Tests T-Mobile’s $26 Billion Bet on Sprint

Pinterest Prices I.P.O. at $19 a Share, for a $12.7 Billion Valuation

Lyft Investors Sue Over Slump, Claiming IPO Was Overhyped

Amazon, Facing Entrenched Rivals, Says to Shut China Online Store

First Japan-Built Airliner in 50 Years Takes on Boeing and Airbus

The Cult Japanese Retailer Making Billions Breaking All the Rules

Powerful New iPhone Expected After Apple’s Embarrassing Surrender

JPMorgan Shuffles Roles at Top

The Last Place for Traders to Earn Real Money

Cullen Roche: Hard Truths for the Inflation Truthers

Jeff Miller: What Is Your Trading Timeframe Now?

Michael Batnick” Money Made By Chance

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Morning News: April 17, 2019
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on April 17th, 2019 at 7:09 am

German Economy Heads for Worst Growth in Six Years

China’s Economy Stabilizes After Beijing Opens the Bank Vaults

China’s First-Quarter Growth Unexpectedly Steadies, But Too Early to Call Clear Recovery

China Is Considering Stimulus Measures to Bolster Consumption

U.S. Restrictions on Qatar Airways Could Lead to Unraveling of Aviation Agreements

Powell Adopts an Inflation Stance Yellen Shunned

Truck Drivers See Orders, Miles Fall in Latest U.S. Slowdown Signal

With AT&T’s Exit, Disney Takes Firmer Control of Hulu

Apple and Qualcomm Settle All Disputes Worldwide

The Most Measured Person in Tech Is Running the Most Chaotic Place on the Internet

IBM’s Mixed Q1 on Slowing Cloud Growth

Martha Stewart Brand Finds A Buyer, But Even At Cheaper Price, There’s No Guarantee Deal Pays Off

Nick Maggiulli: The Will to Survive

Howard Lindzon: Momentum Monday – If The Fed….

Ben Carlson: The Stephen A. Smiths of Personal Finance

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Morning News: April 16, 2019
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on April 16th, 2019 at 7:03 am

Stocks March on as European Volatility Vanishes

U.S. Risks Roiling Oil Markets in Trying to Tighten Sanctions

Chevron Says Dutch Supreme Court Rejects Ecuador’s $9.5 Billion Claim

France and Belgium Refuse Support for New Trade Talks With the U.S.

Hulu Spends $1.43 Billion to Buy Back AT&T Stake, Values Streaming Service at $15 Billion

Netflix Results Face New Pressures With Higher Costs, New Rivals

The World’s Biggest Electric Vehicle Company Looks Nothing Like Tesla

After 60,000% Rally, America’s Top Stock Has Suddenly Gone Cold

Champion Accidentally Hit the Fashion Jackpot

BlackRock’s Larry Fink Says Market Has Risk of ‘Melt Up’ Not Melt Down

Goldman Offers Fresh Details on Overhaul Progress as Revenue Slides

Deutsche Bank Is Subpoenaed for Trump Records by House Democrats

Joshua Brown: Systems

Lawrence Hamtil: Stocks Are Still The Better Long-Term Bet

Michael Batnick: The Acquirer’s Podcast

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