CWS Market Review – June 24, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on June 24th, 2025 at 6:20 pm

(This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

Wall Street seems pleased that the Twelve Day War is, hopefully, behind us. On Tuesday, the stock market gained nearly 1% on Monday and just over 1% on Tuesday. The index closed at its highest level in four months, and now we’re only 0.85% away from a new all-time high.

Historically, the market has sold off when wars start. In fact, 75 years ago tomorrow, North Korea stormed into South Korea and the Dow plunged 5%. That was the worst day for the market between 1937 and 1962.

This time, it looks like a lot of investors stayed on the sidelines until the geopolitical news was more certain. All the folks who bet on a spike in oil prices didn’t get what they hoped for. On successive days, the price for oil fell by 7% and then by 6%. Oil is cheaper now than where it was before the conflict.

Today, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell headed down to Capitol Hill for his semi-annual testimony before the House and Senate. (Several years ago, I went to the Senate office building to check out the hearings live. I managed to get the seat directly behind Ben Bernanke.)

While it’s broadly assumed that the Fed will cut rates in September, there’s been growing pressure on the Fed to make a move earlier than that. The pressure is coming from many different sources. Most principally, President Trump is clearly frustrated that the Fed hasn’t yet lowered rates.

At his testimony, Powell said that the economy is doing well and that the labor market is strong, but the sore point is inflation which is still above the Fed’s target range of 2.4%. Still, that’s near the lowest point it’s been in the last four years.

This is what Powell had to say about inflation:

Inflation has eased significantly from its highs in mid-2022 but remains somewhat elevated relative to our 2 percent longer-run goal. Estimates based on the consumer price index and other data indicate that total personal consumption expenditures (PCE) prices rose 2.3 percent over the 12 months ending in May and that, excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core PCE prices rose 2.6 percent. Near-term measures of inflation expectations have moved up over recent months, as reflected in both market- and survey-based measures. Respondents to surveys of consumers, businesses, and professional forecasters point to tariffs as the driving factor. Beyond the next year or so, however, most measures of longer-term expectations remain consistent with our 2 percent inflation goal.

Powell’s concern is that President Trump’s tariff policies will heat up inflation but even that is unclear. The problem is that Powell is warning us of something we don’t yet see. As a result, his conservative approach appears overly cautious.

President Trump said he hopes “Congress really works this very dumb, hardheaded person over.” I agree that the Fed is probably unnecessarily hawkish on interest rates. The Fed can easily afford to cut rates by 0.25% next month.

Here’s a look at the “real” Fed funds rate, meaning the after-inflation rate. I used the “core rate” of inflation because I think that presents a more accurate view.

Real rates are currently at 1.5%. There’s plenty of room to cut before real rates turn negative.

Before the Financial Crisis, the Fed’s job was easy: set real rates around 3% or so when the economy is humming along and drop real rates to 0% when a recession is coming. I’m exaggerating, but that pretty much captures what happened. The Financial Crisis rewrote the rules and now we see that real rates can go below 0% for a long time.

Powell also faces the dual concern that we don’t know what the tariff policy will be, nor do we know what the outcome will be. Historically, tariffs have led to one-time price hikes and not to persistent inflation like we saw in the 1970s.

Powell’s term as Fed chair is up next year. President Trump seems to favor making Scott Bessent, his Treasury Secretary, the next Fed chair.

There could be growing dissension within the Fed. Recently, two Fed governors, Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller, have signaled that the Fed can cut rates soon. While Fed bank presidents have been known to deviate from the Fed chair, it’s rare for Fed governors to dissent.

For the July meeting, futures traders think there’s only a 19% chance that the Fed will cut. That sounds about right. For September, traders see an 82% chance that the Fed will cut.

On Thursday, the government will update its report on Q1 GDP. This will be the second revision to the report. The most recent revision said that the US economy contracted by 0.2% during the first three months of this year. That was the first negative quarter for GDP since 2022.

There’s a growing consensus on Wall Street that the economy did much better during the second quarter. Some forecasters think the economy grew over 3% in real terms during the second three months of this year.

Now let’s look at our sole Buy List earnings report from yesterday.

FactSet Misses Earnings but Rallies

Before yesterday’s opening bell, FactSet (FDS) reported its fiscal Q3 earnings. I’ll go into more details in our premium letter later this week, but I wanted to touch on a few points.

I also wanted to mention FactSet because there was some misunderstanding about the report. Technically, FactSet fell short of Wall Street’s estimate. For the quarter, FactSet made $4.27 per share which was three cents below consensus.

However, the details of the report were quite good. Don’t take my word for it. Shares of FDS gapped up yesterday. At one point, FDS was up more than 5.5% on the day. The stock is up more than 10% from its April low.

Business is still going well for FDS. The problem is that costs have been weighing it down. Last quarter, revenues rose by 6%, and organic revenue was up by 4.4%.

The key stat for FDA is annual subscription value (ASV). Last quarter, ASV grew by 6%, The ASV retention rate is higher than 95%.

The board approved a new $400 million share buyback program. FactSet has reduced its share count by more than 8% over the last 10 years. Like I said before, I’ll have more to say about FDS in our premium issue, but the company is doing well. FDS recently raised its dividend for the 26th year in a row. I expect more gains later this year.

That’s all for now. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

– Eddy

Morning News: June 24, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on June 24th, 2025 at 7:07 am

NATO Has Dodged Collapse Before. It’s Never Been This Close.

A Putin War With NATO Would Cost the World $1.5 Trillion

The China Wild Card

Japanese Megabanks Weigh Middle East Evacuations, JPMorgan Limits Travel

The Middle East Is in Turmoil. U.S. Frackers See No Reason to Pump More Oil.

The Bernanke Consensus on Oil Shocks Is Truer Than Ever

Ceasefire or Not, The World Is Swimming in Oil

Trump-Hailed Truce Falters With Israel Accusing Iran of a Breach

ECB Alert to Inflation Threat From Strait of Hormuz, Lagarde Says

Middle East Conflict Increases Risk of Higher Inflation Expectations, Says BOE’s Greene

U.S. Attack on Iran Injects Uncertainty Into an Already Uncertain Economy

Trump’s Relentless Fed Pressure Creates Lose-Lose Scenario for Powell

Treasuries Climb as Oil Slump Boosts Bets on Fed Rate Cuts

Stocks Are Within Reach of Records on Shaky Ceasefire

“Balanced Budgets”: One of the Most Fraudulent Notions In Economics

Senate GOP to Offer $40,000 SALT Cap With Lower Income Threshold

No, a TikTok Trick Won’t Erase Student Loan Debt

Number of US-Bound Container Ships Rises on Pacific Horizon

As Is the Case With All Taxes, Tariffs Raise Prices

FTC Approves Omnicom-IPG Merger After Ad Giants Pledge Not to Boycott Over Politics

Texas, Oklahoma and Nevada make changes to lure business amid Delaware’s ‘Dexit’ concern

Ford Still Scrambling to Get Rare-Earth Magnets

Ford Will Keep Battery Factory Even if Republicans Ax Tax Break

Layoffs From Trump Tariffs Ripple Across the Auto-Parts Industry

Why Factories Are Having Trouble Filling Nearly 400,000 Open Jobs

Tesla Robotaxi Launch: Why Getting from Dozens to Millions of Self-Driving Cars Won’t Be Easy

Swiss Losing Ground Faster to Asian Rivals in Wealth, BCG Says

Why Do Yemeni Coffeehouses Seem to Be Everywhere Lately?

The Eternal Quest to Save Gap

Labubu Mania Breathes New Life Into Chinese Consumers

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Morning News: June 23, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on June 23rd, 2025 at 7:07 am

To a President With a Midnight Hammer, Everything Is a Nail

Iran Has Three Options Now. Two Are Terrible.

Iran Has an Oil Card to Play. So Does the U.S.

Iran’s Payback Threat for US Strike Keeps World Powers on Alert

Oil’s Iran Shrug Marks Sunset of Geopolitical Risk Premium

Global Bonds Fall as Mideast Tensions Keep Inflation Woes Alive

Global Business Remains Resilient in Face of Tariffs, Middle East War

‘The Better Life Is Out of Reach’: The Chinese Dream Is Slipping Away

Wall Street Is Acting Like America Didn’t Just Strike Iran

Don’t Be Fooled by Treasury Yields

Why The Federal Reserve Did Not Cause The Great Depression

Senate Readies Tax Bill for Vote With Holdouts Threatening Delay

HSBC’s Return-to-Office Push Risks Denting CEO’s Savings Plan

Meet the Climate Leaders Working to Cut Emissions

America’s Biggest Cement Supplier Set to Make Its Market Debut

America’s Top Logger Bets It Can Make Money Off Small, Crooked Trees

A New Meatpacking Plant’s Novel Pitch to Attract American Workers

When Trade Wars Crash the Wedding

Openness To Brains Will Create Much More Wealth Than Tariff Closure

Italy Has Frozen Russian Oligarchs’ Assets Worth Over $2.6 Billion

Palm Beach Has Never Been Richer. The Locals Aren’t Pleased.

Happy Birthday, Money

Should the Billionaire Be a Fan Fave? “The Gilded Age” Says Yes

The A.I. Race Is Splitting the World Into Haves and Have Nots

Tesla Taps Retail Investors for Stage-Managed Robotaxi Launch

The Holy Grail of Automation: Now a Robot Can Unload a Truck

New Stellantis CEO Faces Slew of Challenges, Vows to Avoid ‘Mediocrity’

Apple Crashes Tech’s Formula One Party as Money Behind ‘F1’

KKR Nears Buyout of Chinese Beverage Maker Dayao

With ‘Elio,’ Pixar Has Its Worst Box Office Opening Ever

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Morning News: June 20, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on June 20th, 2025 at 7:01 am

Japan Looks to Cut Issuance of Superlong Government Bonds

Japan’s Core Inflation Picks Up in May, Complicating BOJ’s Policy Steering

China’s Central Bank Seeks Bigger Role for Yuan on Global Stage

Chinese Companies Set Their Sights on Brazil

RBI Opted For Outsized Rate Cut to Boost Growth, Minutes Show

Global Trading Giants Step Up India Presence, Fuelling Talent Rush, Exchange Upgrades

Greenland Awards Permit for Metal Critical to Defense Industry

IEA Sees Bargains in $100 Billion LNG Clean-Up Proposal

Under Shadow of Trump Warning, Africa Pioneers Non-Dollar Payments Systems

Almost a Third of Eurozone’s U.S. Trade Surplus Is Due to U.S. Firms, Says ECB

U.K. Retail Sales Slump in New Blow to Limping Economy

US Banks That Fueled Ireland’s Finance Rebound Face Tariff Angst

The IRS Badly Needs Reform, But Billy Long Isn’t the One to Reform It

Employees Terrified of ICE Raids Are Failing to Show Up at Work

Electricity Is the New Eggs in a Power-Hungry US

The White House Plans for Texas Could Backfire

Texas Oil Dynasty Targets Payout With $8 Billion Mitsubishi Deal

Masa Son Pitches $1 Trillion US AI Hub to TSMC, Trump Team

Hybrid Cars, Once Derided and Dismissed, Have Become Popular

Home Depot Bid Kicks Off Battle for $5 Billion Building-Products Company

Food, Agriculture Leaders Sound Warnings on MAHA Overreach

After a Bruising Year, Casual-Dining Chains Try to Stage a Comeback

How Do You Build a $500 Million Coffee Chain? By Selling Matcha to Teens.

High Pay at Buc-ee’s Rejects the Left and Right’s Economics

Trying to Dethrone the Birkin? Make Fewer Bags

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Morning News: June 19, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on June 19th, 2025 at 7:04 am

Oil Prices Jump as Israel-Iran Conflict Enters Seventh Day

Trump’s Iran Decision Will Define His Presidency

The MAGA Coalition Won’t Survive a Bunker-Buster in Iran

A War in the Middle East Is Pushing Asian Gas Buyers to Consider Plan B

Carney’s Risk Warning Reverberates as Global Regulators Disagree Over Climate

Under China’s Threat, Taiwan Needs Its Own Power Sources More Than Ever

Taiwan Central Bank Stays on Hold Again as Uncertainty Persists

Philippines Central Bank Cuts Rates to Boost Economy, Warns of Geopolitical Risk

Turkish Central Bank Stands Pat on Rates Despite Easing Inflation

Syria Made First Direct International Bank Transfer Via SWIFT Since War, Central Bank Governor Says

Three Rate Cuts in 24 Hours Show Europe’s Tariff Challenges

Norges Bank Surprises With Rate Cut and Hints at Further Easing This Year

Swiss Central Bank Cuts Interest Rate to Deter Search for Safe Haven

Bank of England Mirrors Fed and Stands Pat

Fed’s Powell Says Rate Path Unclear But Tariff Impact Is Coming

War and Food Prices Could Heat Up Powell’s Summer

Foreign Investment Faces Third Year of Decline on Tariff Uncertainty, UN Warns

This Is Ground Zero in Trump’s Trade War

Auto Tariffs Seen Hiking Car Prices by Nearly $2,000 Per Vehicle

Tariffs Spell Trouble for Cans: ‘We Can’t Absorb Those Costs’

Social Security’s Finances Erode Further, Risking Benefit Cuts

Why the Housing Market Is So Stuck, in 4 Charts

The Heavy Weight of Taxes On Small Business

Texas Is Becoming the Center of Gravity for American Capitalism

Google Suffers Setback in Fight Over EU’s €4.1 Billion Fine

Skepticism Over Meta’s AI Push Raises the Cost to Recruit Talent

WhatsApp’s ‘No Ads’ Promise Meets Meta’s Reality

China’s EV Powerhouse BYD Accelerates Into Europe’s Heartland

A Totally Spontaneous Expression of Joy, Contractually Sponsored by Moët & Chandon

Billionaire Arnault Grapples With Biggest Slump in LVMH History

Telegram’s Durov to Leave Fortune to 100 Children He’s Fathered

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Morning News: June 18, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on June 18th, 2025 at 7:05 am

Israel’s War With Iran Isn’t One Conflict. It’s Three.

Xi, Trump Take Opposite Sides on Iran-Israel

Mideast Oil Giants Bring Their Billions in Search of LNG Riches

Why Eliminating Coal Could Take a Long Time

China Solar Industry’s Self-Discipline Was Doomed From the Start

U.K. Inflation Eases Slightly Despite Concerns Over Rallying Oil Prices

The $10 Billion Proposal to Speed Up U.S.-Mexico Trade

Japan’s Exports Fell for First Time in Eight Months as Tariffs Weighed

Trump Flexes Security Powers to Keep Global Tariff Goal Alive

US-China Trade Truce Is a Cautionary Tale

Trump Is Driving Off Investors and Threatening the Dollar’s Reign

Aiming at the Dollar, China Makes a Pitch for Its Currency

The Dark Side of China’s Gold Frenzy

Bank Indonesia Stands Pat Amid Uncertainties

Sweden’s Central Bank Cuts Rate Amid Economic Uncertainty

US Plans to Ease Capital Rule Limiting Banks’ Treasury Trades

Trump and the Middle East Weigh on the Fed

The Problem With Wall Street’s Fixation on the Fed Dot Plot

The Genius Act Will Bring Economic Chaos

It’s Time to Excise the ‘Double Drawback’ Loophole

The Path to Record Deficits

Bitcoin Will Never Circulate As Money, But Amazon and Walmart Will

Private Equity Sits on $1 Trillion Amid Uncertainties, M&A Stalls, PwC Says

$100 Million for Your Data? Trump Missteps on Privacy and Palantir

Trump’s $499 ‘Built in the U.S.’ Smartphone Will Likely Be Made in China, Analysts Say, Making It Subject to His Own Tariff Policy

The Biggest Companies Across America Are Cutting Their Workforces

Submerging Servers in Liquid Helps Data Centers Cut Energy Use

Musk’s xAI Will Be Hard-Pressed to Extinguish Its Cash Fire

Altman Says Meta Offered OpenAI Staffers $100 Million Bonuses

Wall Street Wants In on Crumbl’s Oversized Sugary Cookies

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CWS Market Review – June 17, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on June 17th, 2025 at 7:16 pm

(This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

The stock market was shaken a bit on Friday after geo-political events dominated the news. On Monday, the market made back much of what it lost but today was another down day. The S&P 500 closed below 6,000 for the second time in three days.

During these kinds of events, Wall Street tends to be much calmer than the talking heads on TV. The Volatility Index is back over 20 which still isn’t very high. Compare that with April when it got as high as 60.

Over the past two months, overall volatility has decreased markedly. There simply aren’t a lot of intra-day movements. Earlier this year, we saw several big intra-day swings. I’m happy to say that Wall Street has really chilled out from the tariff panic this past spring.

The price for oil spiked, but even that has started to cool off.

This week, Wall Street seems less interested in Iran and more interested in the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting. The Fed will release its policy statement tomorrow at 2 pm ET and it’s very doubtful that we’ll see a rate cut. Traders currently place the odds of a 0.25% cut at 0.2% which, in my opinion, is about 0.199999% too high.

The Fed probably won’t resume cutting rates until after Labor Day, and that’s at the earliest. There’s even a good chance that rate cuts won’t happen until October. Goldman Sachs said the Fed won’t cut until December. Meanwhile, interest rates are having an important impact on retail sales, the housing market and which kinds of stocks are doing well. I’ll explain it all in a minute.

Also with this week’s Fed meeting, the Fed will release its Summer of Economic Projections. Frankly, the Fed has a pretty lousy track record of predicting the economy (remember that “transitory” inflation?), but it’s still interesting to see what the Fed expects. While inflation has been better behaved, it looks like we’re not returning to the pre-Covid world of sub-2% inflation. This is the new reality.

May Retail Sales Fall 0.9%

We’ve had a few disappointing economic reports this week. I’m not worried just yet, but it’s something to be aware of.

For example, this morning, we got the retail sales report for May, and it wasn’t good. Last month, retail sales fell by 0.9%. That was 0.3% worse than expected. Apparently, shoppers weren’t in a spending mood last month. Bear in mind that consumer spending makes up about two-thirds of the economy.

During April, retail sales fell by 0.1%. Over the last year, retail sales are up by 3.3%. That’s pretty weak.

If we don’t include cars, then sales fell by 0.3%, which was also worse than expected. Economists had been looking for an increase of 0.1%.

Building materials and garden stores saw sales fall 2.7%, while sliding energy prices pushed gasoline station receipts down 2%. Motor vehicles and parts retailers were off 3.5%, while bars and restaurants saw sales decline 0.9%.

On the plus side, miscellaneous retailers gained 2.9%, while online sales rose 0.9% and furniture stores increased sales by 1.2%.

The data from the prior months was probably impacted by consumers rushing to get deals before the tariffs went into effect. We recently got the report from the University of Michigan on consumer confidence, and it showed an impressive rebound, but this comes after a few disappointing months.

Another troubling report said that homebuilders are in a terrible mood. This is important because the housing industry drives so much of the economy.

For June, the Homebuilder Sentiment Index fell two points to reach 32. Any number below 50 is bad, and this is very bad. This is the third lowest print in the last 13 years. Wall Street had been expecting an improvement.

The survey showed that 37% of homebuilders said that they had to cut prices. That’s a three-year high. The average price reduction has been 5%. If the housing market isn’t happy, then it’s very hard for the overall economy to be happy.

There’s even a famous academic paper titled “Housing IS the Business Cycle.” I think that’s exactly right. The Federal Reserve also said that industrial production fell 0.2% last month.

I’m looking ahead to the Q3 GDP which is due out late next month. The GDP report for Q1 was a dud. It showed a decline of 0.2%, but Wall Street is expecting a rebound for Q2. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model now sees Q2 growth of 3.5%. (That’s annualized and adjusted for inflation.)

I know the Fed doesn’t want to be the one to rescue the economy. I’m not sure it can, but I think it will give it a shot. I do expect interest rates to be lower by the end of the year.

The Market’s Tilt Away from Defense

One concern I have is that over the last two-and-a-half months, the market’s gains have been heavily concentrated in growth stocks. That’s to be expected at the start of a rally, but I’m skeptical that growth will continue to leave value in the dust.

Here’s a chart that I think shows a lot. This is the relative strength of consumer staples and healthcare stocks. I ran the chart on healthcare recently, but this week I want to show how it stacks up against consumer staples.

As you can see, the two lines are like waltzing partners.

Let me take a step back and explain this for a moment because it’s a subtle point that investors should understand. I call it “The Elfenbein Theory to Explain the Entire Stock Market.”

Broadly speaking, stocks tend to fall into one of four groups. The groups are value, growth, defensive and cyclical. The relative strength of value and growth sectors tend to move in opposite directions (but not always!). Likewise, the relative strength of defensive and cyclical sectors also tend to move in opposite directions. The cyclicals move in cycles. The defensives don’t (but not always!).

The value-growth dimension tends to align with short-term interest rates. Rates go down, value leads. Rates go up, growth leads (but not always!).

The cyclical-defensive dimension tends to align with long-term interest rates. Long-term rates go down, defensive stocks lead. Long rates go up, and cyclicals lead. (But not always!).

I’m sure the super-smart kids out there picked up on something: “Hey Eddy, can’t you make a quadrant of those groups?” Yes, you can! There are also periods when short-term and long-term interest rates move in opposite directions. In simple terms, this is when the yield curve gets wider or narrower, and it impacts financial stocks.

This brings me back to the graph. The key defensive sectors are consumer staples and healthcare. Investors tend to like these stocks because their business tends to be more stable. You may not think a consumer staple like Hershey (HSY) or Colgate-Palmolive (CL) is similar to a healthcare name like Abbott Labs (ABT) or Stryker (SYK), but the stock charts certainly think they’re similar.

Lately, however, these stocks have been in Wall Street’s doghouse. The defensive sectors have lagged the market for two-and-a-half years. I don’t think this can last much longer. If the economy gets weaker, investors will lean towards these areas of the market, and there will be a lot of bargains. The rotation probably is not far away.

That’s all for now. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

– Eddy

Morning News: June 17, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on June 17th, 2025 at 7:03 am

Oil Market Well Supplied But Geopolitical Risks Bring Uncertainty, IEA Says

If Iran’s Oil Is Cut Off, China Will Pay the Price

Bank of Japan Stands Pat on Rates, Plans to Slow Bond-Buying Tapering After April 2026

German Financial Confidence Rises Again

Fed’s ‘Wait and See’ Approach Is Intact as New Risks Cloud Economic Outlook

Why the Fed Isn’t Cutting Rates Despite Cool Inflation

China Is Unleashing a New Export Shock on the World

Modi Misses Chance to Push for US Trade Deal as Trump Leaves G-7

The G-7 Was a Great Idea — Until it Became One Against Six

Cubans Shut Out by Trump Are Ditching Miami for Brazil’s Deep South

White House Eyes Rarely Used Power to Override Congress on Spending

Senate Bill Expands Business Tax Breaks, Delays Deal on SALT

Spending Cuts Won’t Shrink Government, and May Well Expand It

Fannie and Freddie Can Never Be Truly Privatized – The US Government Should Leave Well Enough Alone

Inflation Remains the Big Threat to Your Wealth

The Tax Code Is Punishing Savers, But Congress Has a Fix

Contra Klaus Schwab, Government Cannot Create Prosperity

South Africa Built a Medical Research Powerhouse. Trump Cuts Have Demolished It.

Trump Mobile Joins the Oval Office Sales Parade

Private Equity Has Peaked, and It’s About Time

Ken Griffin on Trump, Harvard and Why Novice Investors Won’t Beat the Pros

This Five-Star Fund Manager Says Even Smart Investors Have Been Missing the Greatest Theme of Our Time

How Big Batteries Could Prevent Summer Power Blackouts

How Apple Turbocharged China’s Development

Apple Pushes Back As the EU Attacks Its Precious Property

Eli Lilly to Buy Gene-Editing Biotech Verve for $1.3 Billion

It’s Official: Streaming Is Now the King of TV

Rent the Runway Sees Rebound in Subscribers, and Aims to Add More Styles to Keep Them

Kraft Heinz Is Ditching Artificial Dyes

The Aisle-Prowling Albertsons CEO Taking On Kroger

New Owner Gives High Times a Fresh Spark

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Morning News: June 16, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on June 16th, 2025 at 7:00 am

Nations Head to G-7 Hoping to Reach Trade Deals With Trump

As Trump Returns to G7, Rift With Allies Is Even Deeper

America’s Immigration Mess Shows It Failing as a Nation of Laws

Iran Conflict Poses Rewards and Risks for OPEC+

Stocks Trade Cautiously as Investors Watch Oil Prices

Oil Erases Gain With Iran-Israel Attacks Sparing Flows So Far

The Private Equity Bet Transforming South Africa’s Energy Market

Chinese Spenders Open Wallets as Factories Slow

Japan’s Bond Chaos Heralds More Volatility in Global Markets

ECB Shouldn’t Rush Into Further Rate Cuts, Bundesbank’s Nagel Says

BOE Set to Hold Rates Again Despite Cooling Jobs Market

An Eighth-Generation Oyster Farmer Sees Hope in Britain’s Trade Deal

The US Is Exceptional — When It Comes to Rates

Fed on Hold Leaves Wall Street Asking What It Will Take to Cut Interest Rates

Young Graduates Are Facing an Employment Crisis

The Fog of Trade War Is Causing Confusion About Price Increases

Toymakers Team Up With Artists for Tariff-Proof Toys

A Town’s Single Largest Taxpayer Is Also Its Biggest Headache

Let’s Abolish Corporate Tax Refunds For Taxes Never Paid

The Bureaucrat and the Billionaire: Inside DOGE’s Chaotic Takeover of Social Security

Social Security Must Close the Benefit Gap for Bereaved Children

Trump’s Bill Would End EV Subsidies: Could This Kill Tesla?

‘Golden Share’ in U.S. Steel Gives Trump Extraordinary Control

Victoria’s Secret Is Under Mounting Pressure From Latest Activist Investor

Amex Plans ‘Largest Investment Ever’ in Platinum Credit Card

Everyone Is Using A.I. for Everything. Is That Bad?

Meta Gets Out Its Checkbook to Catch Up in the AI Race

How AI and Charter Schools Could Close the Tutoring Gap

Roku Shares Jump on Amazon-Connected TV Advertising Partnership

Are CVS, Mondelez and McDonald’s Silencing Shareholders?

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Morning News: June 13, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on June 13th, 2025 at 7:04 am

Oil Prices Surge and Stock Markets Stumble After Israel Attacks Iran

Iran Retaliates After Israeli Strike as Trump Urges Nuclear Deal

An Israel-Iran War May Not Rattle the Oil Market

Republicans Are (Almost) Ready for Maximum Pressure on Russia

China’s ‘Cash-for-Clunkers’ Underlines Need for Structural Reform

China Forced to Keep Unprofitable Firms Alive to Save Jobs and Avoid Unrest

Bank of Japan Likely to Stand Pat Again, Discuss Further Bond Tapering

Europe’s Exporters Feel the Chill From Trump Tariffs

Chinese Firms in Talks to Join Group for Li Ka-Shing’s Ports

New Fees on Floating Garages Are Trump’s Latest Effort to Revive U.S. Shipbuilding

Where’s the Inflation From Tariffs? Just Wait, Economists Say.

The Case for Rate Cuts Is Growing

Trend Hedge Funds Struggle as More Nimble Macro Funds Embrace Whipsawing Markets

US Corporate Profit Fat Offers Cushion for Absorbing Tariffs

Elizabeth Warren: Trump Is Right About This One Thing

JPMorgan Can Retain Junior Bankers With Cash, Not Threats

Wall Street Is Investing Billions in Marinas for Bigger Yachts

The South Is Beating Inflation — But Not Housing

Your Electric Bill Is Rising Faster Than Inflation. Here’s Why.

Why There’s an Unexpected Surge in People Claiming Social Security

F.T.C. May Put Unusual Condition on Ad Mega-Merger: No Boycotting

Meta Finalizes $14.3 Billion Scale Investment, Hires Its CEO

AI Will Transform Medicine, Particularly If Trump Lets It

New Army Reserve Unit Enlists Silicon Valley Executives to Upgrade Tech

GameStop Shares Tank More than 20% as Retailer Reveals Convertible Debt Offering, Trading Cards Plan

Shein’s Planned Hong Kong Listing to Benefit from Wider Capital Pool

Air India Was Struggling Long Before 787 Crash

How the Clippers Engineered the NBA’s Best Home Court Advantage

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