Morning News: December 22, 2017
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on December 22nd, 2017 at 7:02 am

The Year in Money

Tax Bill Is Great for Accountants – Unless They Have Holiday Plans

Congress Averts a Shutdown But Now Faces a Messy Start to 2018

Bitcoin Price Drops Below $14,000 as Cryptocurrency Competition Heats Up

Goldman Is Setting Up a Cryptocurrency Trading Desk

Trade Group Warns Investors of Bitcoin Pump & Dump Scams

Can You Spot the Latest Blockchain Stock? It’s a Long Island Beverage Maker

Eric Schmidt to Step Down as Alphabet’s Executive Chairman

A Boeing-Embraer Tie-Up Is Hardly A Surprise, But It Sure Would Make Things Interesting

Ho, Ho, Ho, Xiaomi

Papa John’s Funder to Step Down as CEO

Lotte Chief Gets Suspended Prison Sentence; Free to Run Firm

Jeff Carter: Additions to the Tax Bill I’d Like to See

Mark Hines: Stock Exchange: Is This Trend Really Your Friend?

Cullen Roche: The State of the Trump Bubble

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Q3 GDP Revised to 3.2%
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on December 21st, 2017 at 12:11 pm

This morning, the government revised downward its estimates for Q3 GDP growth from 3.3% to 3.2%. Not a big change.

The good news is that we know it was a good quarter. Bear in mind that Q3 is now pretty distant from us. It began six months ago and ended three months ago. We’re about to wrap up Q4 and that’s what’s on everyone’s mind.

The NY Fed thinks Q4 had growth of 4% while the Atlanta Fed thinks it was 3.3%. I’ll let them and their models fight it out, but it looks like it will be another good quarter for the U.S. economy.

Morning News: December 21, 2017
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on December 21st, 2017 at 6:26 am

Is Bitcoin in a Bear Market When It’s Still Up 1,600% for Year?

Online Brokerage E*Trade Is Now Letting Its Customers Trade Cboe Bitcoin Futures

Bitcoin Schmitcoin: Why Altcoins Will Become FAANG 2.0

Hackers/Founders’ Jonathan Nelson Says Venture Capital Is Broken. His Answer? An Ethereum-Based Fund

Uber’s Loss in Europe Shows Trans-Atlantic Split Over Technology

Didi Chuxing, a Chinese Rival to Uber, Raises $4 Billion

Skepticism Greets Republican Plan to Restore Net Neutrality Rules

U.S. Banks Make Progress on Their Living Wills

In Tax Overhaul, Trump Tries to Defy the Economic Odds

Trump Administration Sides With Boeing in Bombardier Dispute

Rolling Stone’s Owner Sells Controlling Stake to Penske Media

Facebook Ads That Let Employers Target Younger Workers Focus of U.S. Lawsuit

Shel and Eni to Be Tried Over $1.3 Billion Nigerian Oil Deal

Michael Batnick: Why Young Investors Should Hope For a Crash

Roger Nusbaum: Goals For 2018!

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Buy List Performance Update
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on December 20th, 2017 at 8:49 pm

In today’s trading, our Buy List gained 0.21% while the S&P 500 lost 0.08%.

I haven’t run the full numbers, but based off the totals I posted yesterday, our Buy List should have a very, very tiny lead over the S&P 500.

Six trading days left.

Home Sales Rise to 11-Year High
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on December 20th, 2017 at 2:37 pm

From USA Today:

Americans purchased homes at the fastest pace in nearly 11 years, as sales climbed 5.6% in November.

The National Association of Realtors said Wednesday that sales of existing homes rose last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.81 million units. Home sales were last this strong in December 2006, when properties sold at an annual pace of 6.42 million.

The strong demand for buying homes is a sign of an increasingly vibrant economy after a steady, eight-year expansion. The unemployment rate has fallen to a 17-year low, while more people in the younger millennial generation appear to be forming their own households and looking for places to buy. Yet the demand has done little to resolve an increasing vulnerability of the U.S. real estate market as the number of listings has been declining on a yearly basis for two-and-a-half years.

In November, there were 1.67 million properties for sale, a 9.7% decline from a year ago. There is only 3.4 months’ supply of homes on the market, the lowest level ever tracked by the Realtors.

The Long End Rises
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on December 20th, 2017 at 11:39 am

It’s early but the yield on the 10-year Treasury has been creeping up lately. Perhaps it’s due to tax reform. Perhaps it’s due to stronger economic growth. I don’t know.

Of course, every prior prediction for higher long-term rates has failed. Maybe this time someone will be right.

By the way, the NY Fed’s “Nowcast” currently predicts Q4 GDP growth of 4%. If that’s right, then…wow!.

I should add that forecasts from central bankers haven’t always been accurate.

Morning News: December 20, 2017
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on December 20th, 2017 at 7:04 am

Uber Is a Taxi Service, the E.C.J. Says, in Major Setback to Firm

IMF: Brexit Could Fundamentally Alter the Shape of the British Economy

After 7,500% Rally, Cryptocurrency Founder Sells All His Coins

The Real Tulip Mania Looked Nothing Like Bitcoin

Coinbase to Offer Bitcoin Cash, Will Probe Early Price Move

Senate Panel Rejects Trump’s Nominee to Lead Export-Import Bank

Skepticism Greets Republican Plan to Restore Open-Internet Rules

Electric Cars’ Race to Nowhere

Wells Fargo Wants to Finance Metal Trade in Test of New Rule

Microsoft Moves to End Secrecy in Sexual Harassment Claims

KPMG Partners Face Court Contempt Over China Audit

Michael Batnick: What Time Is It?

Ben Carlson: The Pros & Cons of Momentum Investing

Josh Brown: QOTD: When Valuation Attempts are Silly

Howard Lindzon: December 2017…Borrowed Crypto Time

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Down to the Wire…
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on December 19th, 2017 at 11:22 pm

There are just seven trading left in 2017. While this has been another good one for the Buy List, we’re running very, very close to the S&P 500.

I have a competitive streak in me that loves to beat the index, even if by a small amount. I suppose I should be happy with a big gain for the year.

Let’s see where we stand. Through Tuesday’s trading, our Buy List is up 20.71% for the year while the S&P 500 is up 19.77%.

But that doesn’t include dividends, and it’s the dividend-adjusted total that counts. Typically, our Buy List yields less than the S&P 500 (around 1% vs. 2%), but our dividends usually grow a little faster during the year.

Through Tuesday, our Buy List’s dividend-adjusted gain is 21.92%. That works out to a dividend yield of 1.00%.

Through Tuesday, the S&P 500’s dividend adjusted YTD gain is 22.13%. That’s a return to dividends of 1.97%.

So we’re trailing by 21 basis points with seven days to go! (By my estimate, Axalta not taking the deal at $37 cost the Buy List about 80 basis points.)

Strong Housing Starts Report
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on December 19th, 2017 at 9:01 am

A very good report on housing starts:

U.S. homebuilding unexpectedly rose in November, with the construction of single-family housing units surging to a 10-year high, but revisions to the prior month’s data indicated the sector was continuing to struggle with supply constraints.

Housing starts increased 3.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.297 million units, the Commerce Department said on Tuesday. That was the highest level since October 2016. But October’s sales pace was revised down to 1.256 million units from the previously reported 1.290 million units.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast housing starts decreasing to a pace of 1.250 million units last month.

I call this my “Desert Isle” economic report. Meaning, if I only had access to one econ report, above all others, it would be housing starts.

Morning News: December 19, 2017
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on December 19th, 2017 at 7:05 am

Bond Underwriting in Europe Is a Story of Capitulation

China Unveils an Ambitious Plan to Curb Climate Change Emissions

Google’s China Bid Won’t End Well

The Fed Interest Rate Hike: How Hard Will It Hit Asia?

Tax Cuts Benefit the Ultra Rich, but Not the Merely Rich

3 Moves to Make by the End of 2017 If GOP Tax Bill Becomes Law

The Latest Episode Of The Net Neutrality Saga Opens To Mixed Reviews

A Feud Between Boeing and Bombardier is Casting a Spotlight on U.S.-Canadian Trade Deals

Big Deals From Hershey and Campbell Show the Stakes Are Higher for Big Food

Virgin Hyperloop One Rebuffs a Sale and Takes $50 Million Lifeline

Ikea Is Focus of European Inquiry Over Possible Skirting of Tax Bills

Facebook Makes German Market Push as Hate Speech Law Bites

Michael Batnick: What Time Is It?

Ben Carlson: Seeing Both Sides

Jeff Carter: Create An Endowment Effect

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