Morning News: March 11, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on March 11th, 2025 at 7:05 am

Japan’s Economy Grew More Slowly Than Initially Estimated in Final Quarter of 2024

Putin’s Faced Some Tough US Presidents. Not This One.

Sahm: The War on Government Statistics Has Quietly Begun

Wall Street’s Epic Swoon Wipes out Trump Bump

Treasuries Hold Gains in Wake of Stock Slide With Data in Focus

Traders Search for Havens as US Stock Selloff Rattles Nerves

Citi Downgrades US Stocks While Wall Street Set to Pause Selloff

Billionaires at Trump’s Swearing-In Have Since Lost $209 Billion

Wall Street Fears Trump Will Wreck the Soft Landing

Regret Over ‘Recession We Had to Have’ Looms as Lesson for Trump

Consumers Keep Bailing Out the Economy. Now They Might Be Maxed Out.

First Inflation, Now Tariffs: Low-Income Americans Can’t Catch a Break

Trump Has Said ‘No Exceptions’ to His Tariffs. Will That Last?

Tariff Turmoil Leaves US Factories Paying More for Metal Than Overseas Rivals

No Reprieve From Steel Tariffs in Sight Despite Lobbying Efforts

Builders Stockpile Lumber, Swap Out Materials to Work Around Tariffs

Solar Energy, Criticized by Trump, Claims Big U.S. Gain in 2024

Handouts Aren’t the Answer to US Shipbuilding Woes

Musk Says Entitlements ‘Big One’ to Cut in Trump’s DOGE Push

Bad Day for X and Tesla Prompts Concern About Musk’s Distractions

Bank of America Eliminates Some Investment Banking Roles

Private Credit Pioneer Dragged Down by Insults and Indecision

Dell, HPE Deal With the Uncertainty of an Ever-Changing Tariff Picture

Nissan Replaces CEO After Failed Honda Merger

Bags Will No Longer Fly Free on Southwest Airlines

Unilever to Speed Up Sale of Food Brands, CEO Says

How America Got Hooked on H Mart

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Morning News: March 10, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on March 10th, 2025 at 7:06 am

German Industrial Production Rose at Start of 2025 as Tariff Threats Loom

Mark Carney Wins Canada Liberal Contest, Will Succeed Trudeau in Days

China’s Tariffs on U.S. Agricultural Products Take Effect

Tariff Wars Are Often Short. Their Legacies Aren’t.

Who Likes Tariffs? Some U.S. Industries Are Eager for Them.

The Fed’s Fixation on a 2% Inflation Target Is Risky

Morgan Stanley Joins Chorus of Volatility Warnings on US Stocks

Is the Bull Market in ‘Detox’ or Melting Down?

Treasuries Gain as Trump Transition Talk Fuels Recession Angst

Trump Declines to Rule Out Recession

One of Wall Street’s Biggest Bulls Now Says a Flash Crash Can’t Be Ruled Out

Trump’s Dealmaking Is All About Him

Stalled Audits and a Skeleton Staff: Inside Trump’s War on the I.R.S.

Swiss Bank J. Safra Sarasin to Buy Majority Stake in Saxo Bank For $1.2 Billion

Wealthiest Colleges Fight to Protect Their Riches From Taxation

Rocket to Buy Redfin in $1.75 Billion All-Stock Deal

DOGE’s Push for Americans’ Data Meets Mixed Response From Judges

A Chill Sets In for Undocumented Workers, and Those Who Hire Them

St. Louis Wants Immigrants. Trump’s Crackdown Could Get in the Way.

How Natural Gas Became America’s Most Important Export

Report Supports Case for Rio Tinto Unification in Australia, Palliser Says

Whitecap Resources, Veren to Merge in a $10.4 Billion All-Share Deal

TSMC’s Sales Quicken in First Two Months in Upbeat Note for AI

Novo Nordisk Shares Fall After Latest CagriSema Obesity Drug Trial Results

Why the Obesity Drug Revolution Is a Work in Progress

Disney’s Parks Chief Sees Fortnite as Key to Its Future

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Morning News: March 7, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on March 7th, 2025 at 7:02 am

Big Oil Butts Heads With Refiners Over Biofuels

Fighting Climate Without US Dollars

China’s Export Growth Disappoints Amid Trade Tensions

Deepfakes of Singapore PM Used to Sell Crypto, Residency Program

Eurozone Grew More Strongly Than Thought at End of 2024

German Factory Orders Slump Again as Hopes Grow for Stimulus to Counter Tariff Threat

Trading Floors Laud New European Era as Germany Set to Spend

China Blasts Trump’s ‘Two-Faced Acts’, Calls US Tariffs ‘Evil’

Trump and Xi’s Dueling Models for Tech Supremacy

Big Chunk of North American Trade Remains Exposed to Tariffs

A Tariff Tantrum

Tariffs by Whim Keep Allies Off Balance, but Do the Same to Markets

Tariff Anxiety and the Dilemma of Forecasting

Commerce Secretary Lutnick Says the Darndest Things

Peter Thiel’s Deep Ties to Trump’s Top Ranks

Trump’s Policies Have Shaken a Once-Solid Economic Outlook

America Is Finding Out It’s Very Difficult to Import Eggs

The Recession Trade Is Back on Wall Street

Junior Bankers Say Grunt Work Matters Even With AI Taking On the Tasks They Hate

Harnessing the Financial Power of Women

Secretive Hedge Fund QRT Adds Another $5 Billion to Its Assets

As Layoffs Continue, Federal Workers Face Sluggish Job Market

Private Prisons Are Ramping Up Detention of Immigrants and Cashing In

How Public Shaming Helped Create a Promising US Housing Program

Walgreens to Be Bought by Private Equity Firm in $10 Billion Deal

Women’s Soccer League Signs Sponsorship With ‘Gen Z Whisperer’ Alex Cooper

A Cheeto Shaped Like a Pokémon Was a Treasure in Need of Protection

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Morning News: March 6, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on March 6th, 2025 at 7:04 am

South Korea Inflation Moderates in February

China Says It Has ‘Ample’ Policy Tools to Spur Growth

Europe Tackles Its Orban Problem After Trump Rips Up Ukraine Aid

Euro’s Rally Vindicates Banks Betting Against Parity With Dollar

Eurozone’s Retail Sector Continued to Struggle at Start of 2025

ECB Cuts Key Deposit Rate by 25 Basis Points to 2.50%

Germany’s Shock Turns to Anger — and Animal Spirits

Germany, Once a Beacon of Frugality, Jolts Europe With Planned Spending Splurge

Worst German Bond Rout Since 1990 Sparks Global Debt Selloff

Many Chinese See a Cultural Revolution in America

Trump to Delay Canada, Mexico Tariffs on Autos for One Month

Tariff Whiplash Spooks U.S. Consumers

Who’s Got Trump’s Ear on Tariffs?

The Case Against Tariffs Is Getting Stronger

Walmart Asks Chinese Suppliers for Major Price Cuts on Trump Tariffs

Trump’s Cuts to Federal Work Force Push Out Young Employees

MAGA Wants to End Capitalism as We Know It

A $1.5 Billion Hack: How the Biggest Crypto Heist in History Went Down

F.D.A. Nominee to Face Grilling Over Cutbacks and Policy Shifts

Federal Grant Program Opens Door to Elon Musk’s Starlink

Canada’s Anti-Musk Pivot Hits Starlink’s Second-Biggest Market

China’s New AI Tools Ignite Stock Market Frenzy as Alibaba Soars

An All-American Finance Empire Drew Billions—and a Regulator’s Attention

7-Eleven to Split U.S. Stores and Buy Back Shares to Prevent Takeover

Wendy’s Sets Long-Term Financial Targets Ahead of Investor Day

Macy’s Sees Sales Dropping Again This Year

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Morning News: March 5, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on March 5th, 2025 at 7:09 am

Ukraine’s DTEK in Talks With U.S. Suppliers to Boost Gas Supply to Europe, CEO Says

Trump Hails Tariffs as US Economy Barrels Into Trade Wars

Trump Celebrates His Disruption but Slides Over Its Costs

A Speech Long on Gloating, Short on Plans

Trump’s Trade War Could Be His Biggest Economic Gamble

Gaming Out Trump’s Next Tariff Moves

Tariffs Add a New Shock to Food Supply Chains

How Uncertainty From Trump’s Tariffs Is Rippling Through the Economy

The Two-Headed Monster Stalking the Economy Has a Name: Stagflation

Traders Watch for Trump Put After Lutnick Hints at Relief

US Mortgage Rates Near Three-Month Low in Boost to Demand

Mexico’s Secret Weapon in Trade War? Its Popular President

Canada and China Retaliate Against U.S. Tariffs, Which Trudeau Derides as ‘Dumb’

China Sets Strong Growth Target as It Hits Back at U.S. Tariffs

China Sets 2025 Growth Target at About 5% Despite Looming Trade Tensions

Xi’s Growth Goal Will Need Big Stimulus If Trade War Escalates

Beijing Ramps Up Efforts For Tech Independence

Judge Denies Musk’s Request to Block OpenAI’s For-Profit Plan

How Elon Musk Muscled His Way Into the FAA

Tesla Sales Plunge in Germany, Reflecting Broader Slump in Europe

Bayer Warns of Lower Earnings as Turnaround Continues

Goldman Wins Rare Solo Role on Blockbuster $19 Billion Port Deal

Phillips 66 Pushes Back Against Activist Elliott in Board Fight

McDonald’s Gives Its Restaurants an AI Makeover

KKR, Walmart to Sell Japan Supermarket Chain Seiyu for $2.5 Billion

Concert Ticket Prices Are Soaring, and Busting Gen Z’s Budgets

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CWS Market Review – March 4, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on March 4th, 2025 at 4:19 pm

(This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

Ninety-two years ago today, Franklin Roosevelt was sworn in as president. In his inaugural address, President Roosevelt said, “Let me assert my firm belief that the only thing we have to fear is fear itself—nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into advance.”

Indeed, fear is a scary thing, and there was a lot to be afraid of back then. The thing about fear is that it can easily lead to more fear, and that will compound on itself. During the Great Depression, the Dow dropped from 380 to 40. The Dow didn’t make a new high for 25 years. That certainly puts our fears of a 10% or 20% pullback into some context.

Back in FDR’s time, the new president wasn’t sworn in until March 4. That wide length and uncertainty between the Hoover and Roosevelt administrations led Americans to move the inauguration date to January 20.

Once he became president, Roosevelt got busy. Thirty-six hours into his presidency, FDR declared a bank holiday. Every bank in the country was shut down. Can you imagine that! Americans couldn’t take their money out, or even put new money in. The government inspected every bank in the country and only fiscally sound banks were allowed to reopen.

On March 9, Congress passed the Emergency Banking Act. The measure was rushed through Congress as quickly as possible. In fact, it was done so quickly that there was only one copy of the bill for the entire House of Representatives.

FDR’s order extended to the New York Stock Exchange. The stock market ended the day of March 3, 1933, at 53.84. After that, all trading was halted. The NYSE didn’t open again until March 15.

The paused worked, and the panic faded. Americans returned more than $1 billion to their banks. The Dow closed March 15 at 62.1, a gain of 15.3%. That was the single-largest gain in market history, and the record still stands today.

But in my opinion, that record deserves a small asterisk. While it’s technically true that March 15, 1933, was the best day in market history, that includes the buildup of nearly two weeks without any trading.

There’s a lesson for investors here. What’s interesting to me is how panic can build on itself, but so can calmness. Once people were forced to stop selling, other people lost the need to sell which, in turn, caused less selling. Sanity slowly returned. As it turned out, the initial problem was fear itself.

The High Beta Correction

That brings us to this week’s panic. Actually, panic is too strong a word, but the financial markets are certainly not happy. The stock market fell for the eighth time today in the last nine sessions, and five of those drops were by more than 1%.

The S&P 500 has now wiped out its entire gain since the election. That’s a loss of $3.4 trillion. The combined loss truly is not that much (about 6%), but it comes on the heels of a very placid time for the market.

The market could be in worse shape than it superficially appears. For example, 70% of the stocks in the S&P 500 are down over 10% off their 52-week highs. More than 38% are down more than 20%. It’s as if there’s a stealth bear market that’s quickly taking out some of Wall Street’s favorites. Tesla, for example, is 44% below its 52-week high.

I’ve mentioned this before, but it bears repeating. The selling is falling disproportionally on riskier stocks. Low risk stocks have barely been hit.

Here’s a chart of the S&P 500 High Beta Index (in blue) along with the S&P 500 Low Vol Index (in red):

Notice how sharply the blue line has fallen. The chart above is a good way of seeing how the market swings between fear and greed. See how stable the red line is in comparison. The same effect is happening between value stocks and growth stocks. The Nasdaq Composite is down 8.7% since February 14.

There are sound reasons for the market to get more conservative. At the top of the list is the escalating trade war between the United States and Mexico and Canada. The tariffs are set to go into effect at midnight tonight. Last year, the United States had imports worth $1.4 trillion from Canada, China and Mexico.

According to the New York Times, “All goods imported from Canada and Mexico are now subject to a 25 percent tariff, except Canadian energy products, which face a 10 percent tariff, according to the executive orders.”

We’ve also been getting a raft of softer economic news. For example, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model now estimates that the U.S. economy shrank at a 2.8% rate during Q1. Just a few days ago, the model was forecasting 2% growth. We also learned that in January, construction spending fell by 0.2%. The ISM Manufacturing Index fell to 50.3. That still indicates a growing factory sector but not by much.

Last week, the government revised its report on Q4 GDP growth to 2.3%, but the shocking news came with the personal income report. That usually comes out the day after the GDP report. For January, personal income rose by 0.9%, but spending (officially called “personal consumption expenditures”) fell by 0.2%.

Here’s a look at real PCE, which means adjusted for inflation. That little dip at the right is what freaked out Wall Street. I’m not concerned about one or two bad months, but I don’t want to see a bad trend develop here.

President Trump will be speaking this evening. Early reports suggest he’ll be talking about Ukraine and his tariff policies.

This Friday, we’ll get the jobs report for February. Wall Street expects to see a gain of 170,000 net new jobs. I’ll be curious to see if that number is as strong as expected. In January, only 143,000 jobs were created which was below expectations. The unemployment rate is expected to be 4.0%.

If the jobs numbers are bad, it could convince investors that they were right to exit High Beta stocks.

That’s all for now. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

– Eddy

Morning News: March 4, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on March 4th, 2025 at 7:04 am

Eurozone Labor Market Stays Resilient Despite Weak Economy

Trump Pauses Military Aid to Ukraine After Clash With Zelenskiy

Is It Time to Transfer Frozen Russian Assets to Ukraine? Calls Grow Louder.

Trump’s Blowup With Zelenskiy Spurs Taiwan to Rethink US Tactics

Putin Agrees to Help Trump Broker Nuclear Talks With Iran

Aramco Trims World’s Biggest Payout in Blow to Saudi Budget

The ‘Oil Grand Bargain’ Isn’t Mere Fantasy

Trump Escalates Global Trade War, Sparking Tit-for-Tat Tariffs

China Retaliates Against Trump Tariffs as Superpower Trade War Escalates

Trump’s Tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China Snap Into Effect

Trump Tariffs Usher In New Era of Protectionism

In Face of Trump’s Tariffs, Mexico Embraces Its President and Nationalism

Tariff War Risks Sinking World Into New Great Depression, International Chamber of Commerce Warns

The Problem with Car Tariffs: What’s an Import?

Iowa Farmers Don’t See Much ‘Fun’ in Trump Tariffs

China Targets San Diego Biotech Firm in Broadening Blacklist

Can Trump Deliver on His Promises? These 12 Metrics Will Tell Us

A Key Interest Rate Falls, but Not for the Reasons Trump Wanted

Crypto’s Next Bubble Will Be Politically Motivated

Commerce Secretary’s Comments Raise Fears of Interference in Federal Data

After the Apocalypse, Will We Decamp to a Suburb or a High-Rise?

Tesla for Sale: Buyer’s Remorse Sinks In for Elon Musk’s E.V.-Owning Critics

Xiaomi and Vivo’s Cameras Set New Smartphone Standard Far Above iPhone

Honeywell’s Transformation Continues With $2.2 Billion Deal for Pump Maker

Target Warns That Tariffs and Consumer Uncertainty Will Hurt Profit

Walgreens Nears Roughly $10 Billion Deal to Go Private

Kraft Heinz Dips a Toe Into Booze

The Mysterious Billionaire Behind the World’s Most Popular Vapes

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Morning News: March 3, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on March 3rd, 2025 at 7:07 am

America’s Loss of Soft Power Is Putin’s Gain

Russia Sanctions Hamper Delivery of Moscow’s Oil

For Greenland’s Minerals, the Harsh Reality Behind the Glittering Promise

ECB Primes Fresh Rate Cut as Inflation Begins to Ease Again

The ‘Hustling Expert’ Behind Argentina’s $250 Million Crypto Scandal

Trump Crypto Rally Proves Fleeting as Reserves Plan Questioned

Asia’s Manufacturing Gauges Signal Growth But Outlook Remains Cloudy

Trump Turns Up Trade Pressure on China After Beijing Fails to Come Running

Clock Ticks Down Toward Sweeping Tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China

Mexico’s Star Economy Dreams Crumble Under Donald Trump’s Tariff Threats

How Much Do Tariffs Raise Prices?

On Another Tariff Eve, Here Is the Impact to U.S. Autos

2 Troubled Carmakers, Nissan and Stellantis, Could Be Hit Hardest by Tariffs

US Stocks Lagging Behind World Portends Tough Year for Equities

Short Sellers Are a Useful Menace

US Narrative Veers From ‘Exceptionalism’ to Alarm Over Growth

Here’s How Government Spending Has Grown—and Where the Money Is Going

Dalio Warns of US Debt Crisis ‘Heart Attack’ Within Three Years

Are Home Values About to Fall? It Depends on the Location

Elon Musk Wants to Be a Kingmaker Again

Can the Media’s Right to Pursue the Powerful Survive Trump’s Second Term?

The US Is Withdrawing From Global Health at a Dangerous Time

BlackRock’s GIP Joins Investment Firms Setting Up Qatar Offices

HP’s Deal for Humane AI Startup Creates an Unlikely Partnership

Southwest Airlines Promised to Take Care of Employees—Until It Couldn’t

Forget McDonald’s. This Chinese Fast-Food Chain Is Now the World’s Biggest.

Kroger CEO Rodney McMullen Resigns After Investigation Into Personal Conduct

Snack Makers Are Removing Fake Colors From Processed Foods

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Morning News: February 28, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on February 28th, 2025 at 7:02 am

India’s Economy Picks Up Speed

What Is Japanification and Is it Happening to China?

China Vows ‘All Necessary Measures’ Against New US Tariffs

All the Ways China Could Respond to Trump’s Ramped Up Trade War

Global Shares Fall After Renewed U.S. Tariff Threats Spook Investors

Trump’s Tariff Onslaught Is Coming Faster Than His Team Can Carry It Out

America’s Trade War With China Should Be a Team Sport

When It Comes to Tariffs, Trump Can’t Have It All

The Oil Market Has a Growing Gas Supply Problem

Team Trump Can’t Have It Both Ways on Oil and Gold

Feeling ‘Slapped Across the Face by Trump,’ Canadians Say They’ll Skip U.S. Trips

Inflation Is Stalking Trump

Egg Crisis Forces Trump to Seek Bigger Imports

Trump Dials Back Fed-Bashing, Seeks a Different Kind of Rate Cut

The Fed’s Hand Might Be Forced to Lower Rates

Traders Are Racing to Bet on the End to Russian Sanctions

‘Trump Put’ Looms as S&P 500 Reverses Election Rally, BofA Says

Bitcoin Down 25% From All-Time High as Crypto Rout Worsens

S.E.C. Declares Memecoins Are Not Subject to Oversight

Rich People Are Firing a Cash Cannon at the US Economy—But at What Cost?

“Low Buy 2025”: What Does It Take to Quit Shopping? Mute, Delete and Unsubscribe.

Indonesia’s $1 Billion Win in Apple Negotiations Sets New Precedent

Tumbling Tesla Shares Leave Investors Bracing for More Losses

Nissan Needs a Savior to Swoop to Its Rescue Again

BASF Expects Earnings Growth on Cost Cuts

Videogaming’s All-In Bet: Can Two Titans Lift a $58 Billion Industry?

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Morning News: February 27, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on February 27th, 2025 at 7:04 am

Eurozone Business Sentiment Improves as Rates Fall, Despite Looming Tariffs

Polish Zloty Surges to 10-Year High Fanned by Hawkish Central Bank

LSEG Shares Rise on $633.8 Million Share Buyback

HKEX Profit, Revenue Hit Quarterly Highs

Trump Aims at Chinese Shipping, Risking Another Shock for Businesses

Reagan’s ‘Peace Through Strength’ Never Looked So Weak

‘Buy Canada, Bye America’: Trump’s Taunts Spur Fury in the North

Republicans Gamble on a Regressive Economic Agenda

From Egg Prices to Housing, US Inflation Is Heating Up Again

U.S. Economy Shows Signs of Strain From Trump’s Tariffs and Spending Cuts

Bessent Gets His Lower Bond Yields But for the Wrong Reasons

US Treasuries Slip as Traders Await GDP Data for Growth Hints

Big Money Flocks Back to a Levered Trade That Went Bust in 2008

Squeezed by Strong Dollar, Companies Try to Neutralize Currency Swings

Musk’s Empire Tells Its Own DOGE Story

A Disastrous Buyout Exposes Fuzzy Math in Private Equity Deals

When Central Banks Hit Instagram, Cue the Cringe

Nvidia Sees Mixed Outlook After Two Years of Blowout Results

Tencent Releases Turbo AI Model It Says Is Faster Than DeepSeek

PayPal Needs Help From Its Oldest Friends—Consumers

NFL Teams Gathered Detailed Consumer Data Without Standard Notice or Opt-Outs

Breaking Up BP Would Risk Its Profitable Trading Edge

Founding Family Fails in Bid to Buy Out 7-Eleven

The Most Important Person (in Japanese Food) You’ve Never Heard Of

Becoming a Beer Sommelier is Almost Impossible. Explaining It Is Harder.

They Broke Up. Then Came the Brand Deals.

‘Jeopardy!’ and ‘Wheel of Fortune’ to Leap to Streaming

YouTube Star MrBeast Is Raising Money at a $5 Billion Valuation

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