Morning News: January 6, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on January 6th, 2025 at 7:04 am

China Services Activity Gauge Signals Pickup in Growth

Xi Says China Must Win ‘Tough, Protracted’ Fight Against Graft

Trump’s Trash Talk Revives the Worst of World Politics

Prospects for Global Rate Cuts in the Shadow of Trump

Euro Zone Investor Morale Falls in January to Lowest in More than a Year

Your Happy New Year Depends on Trump and Inflation

Gold Extends Drop After Fed Officials Express Inflation Concern

Dollar Falls Most in Two Months on Report Trump to Limit Tariffs

Is This Bitcoin’s Golden Moment? These Are 3 Key Things to Watch for Cryptos in 2025

US Yields Hit 14-Month High Before $119 Billion of Debt Sales

Three Ways the Fed’s Message Falls Short – and How to Fix Them

Citadel Extends Non-Compete to 21 Months to Retain Talent

In 2025, Accounting Rulemaker to Explore Non-GAAP and R&D Spending

Nippon Steel, US Steel File Lawsuits After Biden Blocks Deal

Value of CES Is Found Far From the Exhibits on Convention Floor

Nvidia Investors Look to Huang CES Speech to Spark Next Breakout

Sam Altman on ChatGPT’s First Two Years, Elon Musk and AI Under Trump

Global Chip Stocks Climb as Foxconn’s Bumper Results Show a Continuation of the AI Boom

Exodus by Wall Street Banks from Climate Group Worries Advocates

Data Centers Need to Look Beyond Green Energy, Siemens Executive Says

Unemployed Office Workers Are Having a Harder Time Finding New Jobs

Health Care Is UPS’ $20 Billion Lifeline to Offset Shipping Slowdown

The Challenge for Made-in-America Bikes? Made-in-China Parts

Volkswagen and Xpeng to Build Super-Fast Charging Network in China for EVs

Disney Nears Deal to Merge Hulu + Live into Fubo

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Morning News: January 3, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on January 3rd, 2025 at 7:03 am

Are Russian Sanctions Working? Debate Gains New Urgency With Trump.

China Lets Yuan Weaken After Defending 7.3 Per Dollar for Weeks

China Will Sharply Increase Funding from Treasury Bonds to Spur Growth in 2025

Emerging Markets Diverge in 2025 on Growth, Rate Expectations

Norway Sovereign Wealth Fund Makes $1.07 Billion US Real Estate Transaction

Trump Says Britain is ‘Making a Very Big Mistake’ with Windfall Tax on North Sea Oil Producers

America Still Leads the World in All the Ways That Matter

Economy in Counties Trump Won Points to Governing Challenges

Reserves at Fed Sink Below $3 Trillion to the Lowest Since 2020

Don’t Fear the Froth. Stay Invested Even If Stocks Are Overvalued.

BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF Posts Record Outflow After Banner Year

Biden Blocks Sale of U.S. Steel to Nippon Steel

The Fallout From the End of the U.S. Steel Deal

Richard A. Easterlin, ‘Father of Happiness Economics,’ Dies at 98

A $20 Billion Fund Puts Its Religious Stamp on Corporate America

Tesla’s Car Business Isn’t Really in the Driver’s Seat

Why Mark Zuckerberg No Longer Needs Nick Clegg

Foreign Phone Sales Plunge 47% in China Spelling Trouble for Apple

Apple to Pay $95 Million to Settle Lawsuit Accusing Siri of Eavesdropping

A Year After Boeing’s Blowout, Quality Remains Work in Progress

Boeing Adds More Surprise Quality Checks in Its Factories

Super-Hybrids Are Automakers’ Bridge for EV Skeptics and Curious

Zyn’s Online Hype Risks Leading to the Nicotine Pouches’ Downfall

US Surgeon General Calls for Cancer Warnings on Alcohol Labels

Hollywood’s Sequel-Led Comeback Projected to Extend Into 2025

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Morning News: January 2, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on January 2nd, 2025 at 7:05 am

Asia’s Manufacturing Expands Despite Export Woes, Waning Confidence

China’s Growth in 2025 Depends on Battling Storms on Many Fronts

Chinese Stocks Tumble in Worst Start to a Year Since 2016

China Hits Dozens of U.S. Companies With Trade Controls

U.S. Companies Vouched for China During Trump’s First Term. Not Anymore.

European Gas Pares Gains After Loss of Russian Flows Via Ukraine

Are Russian Sanctions Working? Debate Takes New Urgency With Trump.

Politics, Economics and Markets Create a 2025 Three-Body Problem

Businesses Preparing for Another Year of Geopolitical Tumult

The Bull and Bear Case for 2025

The Case For Paranoid Optimism Under Trump 2.0

US Stocks Set for Bounce After Four-Day Losing Run

Here’s (Almost) Everything Wall Street Expects in 2025

Stock Bears Are Going Extinct. Time to Worry?

D.E. Shaw to Return Billions After Flagship Hedge Fund Gains 18%

Morgan Stanley to Leave Sector Climate Coalition

The Top Climate Tech Investing Trends to Watch

Why Credit Suisse Was a Magnet for Scandals

Nvidia’s Market Value Gets $2 Trillion Boost in 2024 on AI Rally

US Dockworkers, Port Employers Set to Restart Talks Next Week

Big Retail Gets Bigger as Smaller Players Struggle

How Saffron, a Precious Import, Became an American Cash Crop

TikTok, Trump Sure to Spark a Year of Social Media Chaos

China’s Late-Year EV Sales Boom Gives Way to Rocky 2025 View

Why the Obesity Drug Revolution Is a Work in Progress

Rolex Hikes Watch Prices by as Much as 8% After Gold Surges

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Morning News: January 1, 2025
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on January 1st, 2025 at 7:08 am

China’s Economy Is Burdened by Years of Excess. Here’s How Bad It Really Is.

China’s Leader Nods to Economic Challenges

Russia and Ukraine End Five Decades of Gas Transit to Europe

Green-Energy Firms’ Pitch to Trump: You’re Going to Need a Lot of Power

The Biggest S&P 500 Winners and Losers of 2024

Wall St. Sees More Gains Ahead After Another Bumper Year for Stocks

Treasuries See Hoped-For Rally Fizzle Into Another Lagging Year

The Best Predictions for 2025 Are Actually About 2024

‘This Will Be Priceless’—Elon Musk Just Quietly Blew Up The Price Of This Bitcoin Rival

Crypto’s $205 Billion Stablecoin Market Set to Go Mainstream

Democrats’ Problem With Big Cities, in Three Charts

Swiss Central Bank Faces Call to Hold Bitcoin in Reserves

A Top Climate Group for Banks and Asset Managers Is Making Changes

Citi and Bank of America Say They’re Leaving Global Climate-Banking Alliance

Alibaba to Sell Sun Art to Buyout Firm DCP for $1.6 Billion

The Visas Dividing MAGA World Help Power the U.S. Tech Industry

US Steel Jumps Most in a Year on Nippon Steel Offer to Biden

Is Living on Top of a Costco the Answer to Affordable-Housing Crisis?

Why Breakfast Is Busting Your Food Budget

What Happens When a Whole Generation Never Grows Up?

Advertisers Keep Avoiding News Sites, and Publishers Have Had Enough of It

Moviegoers Dealt Originality a Setback in 2024

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The 2025 Buy List
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on December 31st, 2024 at 9:35 pm

Here are the 25 stocks for the 2025 Buy List. It’s locked and sealed, and I can’t make any changes for 12 months.

For tracking purposes, I assume the Buy List is a $1 million portfolio that’s equally divided among 25 stocks. Below are all 25 positions with the number of shares for each and the closing price for 2024. Whenever I discuss how the Buy List is doing, the list below is what I’m referring to.

Here are the five new buys with their starting Buy Below prices:

Adobe ($480)
Allison Transmission ($115)
Henry Schein ($75)
IES Holdings ($220)
Mueller Industries ($85)

The five sells are:

AFLAC
Celanese
Farmer Mac
Hershey
Polaris

Here are the corporate descriptions from Dun & Bradstreet of our five new stocks:

Adobe is one of the largest and most diversified software companies in the world. It has been known for brands such as Acrobat, Photoshop, and Adobe Document Cloud. Adobe serves customers such as content creators and web application developers with its digital media products, and marketers, advertisers, publishers, and others with its digital marketing business. Its creative cloud offering is a cloud-based subscription offering that enables creative professionals and enthusiasts alike to express themselves with apps and services for video, design, photography and the web that connect across devices, platforms and geographies. The Americas account for about 60% of revenue. The company was founded in 1982.

Allison Transmission is the world’s largest manufacturer of fully-automatic transmissions for medium- and heavy-duty commercial vehicles and medium- and heavy-tactical US defense vehicles and a leader in electrified propulsion systems. Its products are used in vehicles such as on-highway trucks, transit buses, motorhomes, off-highway vehicles and equipment, and defense vehicles. In addition to the sale of propulsion solutions, it also sells branded replacement parts, support equipment, and aluminum die-cast components, among others. The company also makes electric drives for transit buses and shuttles and its ReTran remanufactured transmissions for aftermarket customers. The US accounts for most of the company’s revenue, but Allison also serves customers in the Americas, EMEA, and APAC regions. The company traces its historical roots back to 1915.

Henry Schein is the world’s largest provider of health care products and services primarily to office-based dental and medical practitioners, as well as alternate sites of care. It provides everything from infection-control products, hand-pieces, preventatives, impression materials, composites, anesthetics, and dental implants to vaccines, surgical products, diagnostic tests, infection-control products, and X-ray products. Other offerings include practice management, business analytics, patient engagement, and patient demand software, repair services, and financial services. The company stocks a comprehensive selection of more than 300,000 branded products and Henry Schein corporate brand products through its main distribution centers. The US accounts for about 70% of its revenue. Founded in 1932 by Henry and Esther Schein as a storefront pharmacy, Henry Schein became a public company in 1995.

IES designs and installs integrated electrical and technology systems and provides infrastructure products and services to a variety of end markets, including data centers, residential housing, and commercial and industrial facilities. Our more than 9,000 employees serve clients in the United States.

Mueller Industries is a leading manufacturer of copper, brass, aluminum, and plastic products. The range of products it manufactures is broad copper tube and fittings, line sets, steel nipples, brass rod, bar, and shapes, aluminum and brass forgings, compressed gas valves, refrigeration valves and fittings, and insulated flexible duct systems, to name a few. It also resells a myriad of products, including brass and plastic plumbing valves, plastic fittings, malleable iron fittings, faucets, and plumbing specialty products. Its operations are divided among three segments: Piping Systems, Industrial Metals, and Climate. The company’s products are used in a wide range of applications including transportation, automotive, and industrial applications, among others. With operations in North America, Europe, Asia, and the Middle East, Muller Industries generates most of its revenue in the US.

The 2024 Buy List
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on December 31st, 2024 at 2:56 pm

The 2024 investing year is on the books!

This was another good year for Wall Street. In fact, this was the best two-year run the market has had since the 1990s, and it happened despite a lot of scary headlines.

Investors didn’t seem to mind. The S&P 500 notched 57 record closes this year. Not too long ago, many of the smart minds on Wall Street assumed that we’d have a recession. Not so!

In September, the Federal Reserve decided to cut interest rates for the first time in more than four years. Now the Fed seems to be having second thoughts about the pace of those rate cuts.

Higher-risk areas of the market did especially well in 2024. Bitcoin doubled, and gold had its best year since 2010.

This century is one-quarter over. The S&P 500 Total Return index is up 538.76% over the last 25 years, which works out to 7.7% per year (not including inflation), but it’s been a hit-or-miss century. Since the March 2009 low, the S&P 500 Total Return is up over 1,000%. As late as 2011, the market was underwater for the century.

I’m pleased to say that the 2025 Buy List performed well, although we didn’t do as well as the overall market. Much of this can explained by the sharp turn towards risk.

For the year, the S&P 500 gained 23.31%, and with dividends it was up 25.02%. Our Buy List was up 10.36% for the year, and with dividends, the gain was 11.61%. Much of our underperformance came during the last month of the year.

In 2024, the Buy List had a “beta” of 0.7255. That’s unusually low for us. I think this shows us how much risk the rest of the market was absorbing.

For the 19 years of the Buy List, the S&P 500 with dividends is up 583.91%, while our Buy List is up 656.85%.

Here’s a look at our Buy List versus the S&P 500 throughout the year (this doesn’t include dividends).

FICO was our biggest winner this year, with a gain of 71%. Last year, it was our second-biggest winner, and the year before that it was our biggest winner.

Fiserv and Miller Industries did well for us this year. Both gained 54%.

Celanese was our biggest loser this year, but that came after a 52% gain in 2023. Polar and Hershey were also down for us in 2024. Hershey was our biggest loser in 2023.

A year ago, we decided to sell TREX after it gained 95% for us in in 2023. Trex fell 16% this year.

McGrath RentCorp may have had the most dramatic year in 2024. It soared in January after it announced it was being bought out, but the deal dragged on for months as the government took a closer look. Finally, both companies decided to ditch the merger.

I always strive to be as transparent as possible when discussing our track record. Here’s a breakdown of how our Buy List performed in 2024. For tracking purposes, I assume the Buy List is a $1 million portfolio and that all 25 stocks are equally weighted at the start of the year.

Note that Amphenol split 2-for-1 on June 12.

Here’s the data behind the dividend-adjusted returns. I’ve listed each stock’s beginning price, ending price and dividend-adjusted starting price.

Morning News: December 31, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on December 31st, 2024 at 7:08 am

Chinese Companies Have Sidestepped Trump’s Tariffs. They Could Do It Again.

China Hacked Treasury Dept. in ‘Major’ Breach, U.S. Says

Hong Kong Sees Flurry of Year-End Listing Plans

Xi Says China’s 2024 GDP Growth Set to Hit Target of Around 5%

China’s December Home Sales Stay Flat in Sign of Stabilization

South Korean Inflation Rises, But Stays Below Central Bank Target

Europe Set for Colder January With Less Wind, More Gas Use

BOE Facing Economic Risks From Taxes to Tariffs in 2025

Hindsight Capital 2024 Part II: World in Turmoil

Dollar Stands Tall in 2024, Propped Up by Cautious Fed, Trump Trade

Treasury’s Elite Bond Dealers Will Struggle to Handle $50 Trillion Debt

A Record-Shattering $1 Trillion Poured Into ETFs This Year

A Crypto Optimist’s Guide for 2025

UBS Boss Warns Against Excessive Banking Regulation Ahead of Overhaul

Bill Ackman Expects Trump to Privatize Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac

Another Judge Blocks Biden Rule Expanding Overtime Pay

World’s 500 Richest People Surpassed $10 Trillion in Wealth This Year

Meet the Rich Retired Boomers Who Are Now Ultra-Frugal Because They Are Scared of Going Broke—Even After Saving for Decades

Older Americans Are Falling Through the Cracks of the Programs Designed to Save Them

Microsoft Looks to Prove AI Is a Boon to the Workplace

AI, Musk and Trump Add Up to a Turbulent 2025 for Tech

Tesla Stock Surge Runs Up Against a Potential Annual Sales Drop

Intel’s Grim Lesson for Boeing: Sometimes Mr. Fix-It Is Too Late

When Fewer Americans Are Buying Homes, These Companies Suffer

Bernard Madoff’s Victims Collect $4.3 Billion as US Government Fund Completes Payouts

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Morning News: December 30, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on December 30th, 2024 at 6:15 am

South Korea Investigators Seek Arrest Warrant for President Yoon

China Has Limited Firepower to Counter U.S. Tariffs

Turkey’s Simsek Vows to Heed Inflation Target With Tax Increases

Lebanon’s Economy Reels From War: ‘We Are Starting From Zero’

Europe Braces for Winter’s Coldest Snap With Gas Stores in Focus

Spanish Inflation Ticks Higher Than Expected as ECB Mulls Rate Cuts

Jimmy Carter Just Got Better With Age

Jimmy Carter Was Right About Materialism but, Alas, Wrong About Us

How Has the 21st Century Gone So Wrong?

Bond Vigilantes Are Putting Governments on Notice

Prepare for a Bumpy Year in Coffee, Oil and Other Commodities

Elon Musk’s Political Influence Wears Down Global Resistance to Starlink

US Economy Surprised Again in 2024 Despite Fed, Election Drama

Stocks Drop as Investors Trim Risk Before Year-End

Bitcoin Rally Fueled by Trump Loses Steam as Year Draws to Close

Credit Spreads Haven’t Looked This Good Since the 2000s. Can They Get Better?

What Trump Means for U.S. Business

Trump’s Return Sparks Hope for 2025 Deals Revival

The ‘BATMMAAN’ Stocks Swooped to the Market’s Rescue in December. Will They Keep Climbing in 2025?

Will AI Help or Hurt Workers? One 26-Year-Old Found an Unexpected Answer.

Nvidia Supplier Ibiden Weighs Faster Expansion for AI Demand

It’s the Most Indispensable Machine in the World—and It Depends on This Woman

Arizona’s Tiny Taipei: How a Taiwanese Chip Factory Seeded a Community

Discounts on the Dealership Lot Lift Car Sales

How a $12.98 T-Shirt Is Made in America—at a Profit

Is Your Food Healthy? After 30 Years, the FDA Redefines Which Foods Can Carry that Claim

Charles Dolan, HBO Founder Who Built Cablevision, Dies at 98

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Morning News: December 27, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on December 27th, 2024 at 7:05 am

South Korea Impeaches Two Leaders in Two Weeks as Crisis Deepens

India’s July-Sept. Current Account Gap Stays Flat After Revision

Japan’s Economic Recovery Continues But Progress Tentative, Uneven

China Launches Largest Amphibious Warship in Show of Naval Power

Panama President Refutes Trump’s Claim of Chinese Meddling in Canal

Trump’s Tariff Threats Are Setting Off a Global Supply Chain ‘Freakout’

The Biggest Losers From High U.S. Rates Might Be Abroad

Tether and Trump Could Be a Dangerous Combination

The Fed Is Trying—Again—to Size Up Trump

Trump’s ‘Made in USA’ Bitcoin Is Promise Impossible to Keep

Wall St. Is Minting Easy Money From Risky Loans. What Could Go Wrong?

Ark’s Cathie Wood Calls for Tax Clarity as She Rides ‘Trump Bump’

Richard Parsons, American Media and Finance Troubleshooter, Dies at 76

The 5 Biggest Forces to Watch in Corporate America

A Retirement Expert Is Giving Her Notice

Help Wanted: U.S. Factories Seek Workers for the Nearshoring Boom

Their Decisions Make or Break Your Holiday Travel at the Trickiest U.S. Airport

Boeing Headlines Industrial Prospects and Pitfalls in 2025

Railroad Labor Deals Are Messy. One CEO Is Throwing Out the Playbook.

Osamu Suzuki, Small-Car Wizard Who Built India’s Dominant Automaker, Dies at 94

Top Africa Water Firm Writes Off Millions as Cities Fail to Pay

Flood-Soaked Homeowners Face a Costly Choice: Raise or Raze

It’s Not Just Sunscreen. Toxic Products Line the Drugstore Aisles

N.F.L. Christmas Games on Netflix Break Streaming Records, With Beyoncé’s Help

Airbnb Woos Travelers With New Hotel-Like Luxury Benefits

French Billionaires Take Biggest Hit Ever on Luxury Goods Slump

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Morning News: December 26, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on December 26th, 2024 at 7:07 am

Japan Regulator Orders Aeon Bank to Fix Money Laundering Gaps

Sekisui Chemical to Mass-Produce Solar Films in $2 Billion Project

How Typhoons and Karaoke Crashed Japan’s Insurance Industry

Xi May Be Facing a No Good, Very Bad 2025

Turkey Lowers Main Rate to 47.5% in First Cut Since 2023

Russia Attacks Ukraine Energy Network in Christmas Assault

Russia Rejects Trump Call for Ukraine Truce, But Ready for Talks

America’s Big Natural-Gas Footprint Is About to Get Even Bigger

Will Trump Cut Short the Biden Clean-Energy Boom? Investors Are Nervous.

Cutting the Deficit Is Easy—It’s Just Unpopular

Elon Musk’s Go-To Cost-Cutter Is Working for DOGE

Stock Futures Slip as Markets Poised to Reopen After Christmas

How the Stock Market Defied Expectations Again this Year, by the Numbers

Bitcoin Drops Even as MicroStrategy Plans to Sell More Shares

Corporate Interests Commit Millions to Celebrate Trump’s Inauguration

The U.S. Needs a Productivity Miracle. It Might Just Get One.

How A.I. Could Reshape the Economic Geography of America

OpenAI’s Voice Mode for ChatGPT Among Best AI Product Design in 2024

Why Taiwan’s Foxconn, an iPhone Supplier, Is Investing in Texas and Thailand

Alibaba, E-Mart to Create $4 Billion E-Commerce JV in Korea

Japan Airlines Delays Flights After Cyberattack

Coming to a Tiny Airport Near You: New Airlines

As Retailers Offered Holiday Discounts, Shoppers Showed Up

Will 2025 Be the Watershed Year for Return-to-Office Mandates? That Depends.

Eating in Designer Stores, Shopping on TikTok: Five Consumer Trends for 2025

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