Morning News: June 17, 2016
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on June 17th, 2016 at 7:04 am

The World Economy Looks a Bit Like It’s the 1930s

Brexit Campaign on Hold for Second Day After Lawmaker Murder

China Imposes Blackout on Hong Kong Bookseller’s Revelations

Here Is Why The Fed Is One and Done

The First Big Company to Say It’s Serving the Legal Marijuana Trade? Microsoft

Revlon Agrees to Buy Elizabeth Arden

BMW Breaks Ground on Mexican Plant

U.S. Strikes Back at Judge’s Decision That MetLife Not ‘Too Big To Fail’

Microsoft’s LinkedIn to Be Like Facebook for Careers, Gates Says

Barclays Labels $1.0 Billion Lawsuit Over 2008 Fundraising ‘Misconceived’

Pimco Cuts Jobs After Decline in Assets Since Gross’s Exit

Mitsubishi Motors Plans One-Time Loss for Fuel-Economy Scandal

HSBC to Pay $1.58 Billion to Settle Subprime Suit

Howard Lindzon: Identity is Impossible to Value….Why Microsoft Bought LinkedIn and the Multiplier Effect is GOOD

Roger Nusbaum: Prepare For A Bear

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Investments for an Uncertain Market
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on June 16th, 2016 at 1:12 pm

Another Reason to Buy Gold?
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on June 16th, 2016 at 11:09 am

Morning News: June 16, 2016
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on June 16th, 2016 at 6:55 am

Putin’s Reliance on American Commerce Has Never Been Greater

Jordan Puts SNB on Alert for Turmoil as Brexit Probability Rises

China Dumping More Than Treasuries as U.S. Stocks Join Fire Sale

Yellen Says Forces Holding Down Rates May Be Long Lasting

Yes, Obamacare Premiums Are Going Up

Shanghai Disneyland Opens Amid Rain and Pageantry

Alibaba Not Interested in Paramount, Prefers Licensing Deals

UberChina-Didi Fight Drives Merger Talk

Visium Hedge Fund Managers Charged With Insider Trading

Infiity Pharmaceuticals’ Disappointing Data

How Will The Sale Of LinkedIn Affect Social Media’s Future?

Can Netflix Survive in the New World It Created?

Joshua Brown: This Is a Low-Flying Panic Attack

Winning by Playing Small Ball

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July Rate Hike off the Table?
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on June 15th, 2016 at 5:34 pm

Today’s Fed Statement
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on June 15th, 2016 at 2:01 pm

No change in rates:

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April indicates that the pace of improvement in the labor market has slowed while growth in economic activity appears to have picked up. Although the unemployment rate has declined, job gains have diminished. Growth in household spending has strengthened. Since the beginning of the year, the housing sector has continued to improve and the drag from net exports appears to have lessened, but business fixed investment has been soft. Inflation has continued to run below the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation declined; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee currently expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market indicators will strengthen. Inflation is expected to remain low in the near term, in part because of earlier declines in energy prices, but to rise to 2 percent over the medium term as the transitory effects of past declines in energy and import prices dissipate and the labor market strengthens further. The Committee continues to closely monitor inflation indicators and global economic and financial developments.

Against this backdrop, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1/4 to 1/2 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2 percent inflation.

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. In light of the current shortfall of inflation from 2 percent, the Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected progress toward its inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.

The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction, and it anticipates doing so until normalization of the level of the federal funds rate is well under way. This policy, by keeping the Committee’s holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Stanley Fischer; Esther L. George; Loretta J. Mester; Jerome H. Powell; Eric Rosengren; and Daniel K. Tarullo.

Here are the current projections.

Morning News: June 15, 2016
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on June 15th, 2016 at 7:30 am

Stock Selloff Deepens as Investors Seek Safety

Fed Faces Battle to Escape World’s Low Interest Rate Grip

China’s Bank Lending Rebounds; Good for Growth, Bad for Risk

Iran Said to Have Deal With Boeing to Buy Passenger Planes

India’s Government Approves New Civil Aviation Policy

Fund Managers Are Stockpiling Cash

Retail Sales Rise More Than Forecast as U.S. Consumers Spend

The 60/40 Portfolio Is Dead… And It’s Not Coming Back

MSCI Slaps China in the Face With Index Decision

Why Billions in Proven Shale Oil Reserves Suddenly Became Unproven

Microsoft – Wide Awake In Seattle

JP Morgan Says Brexit Lead For Leave Bigger After Removing Hoax Poll

The Deepest Money Pit Atlantic City Has Ever Seen Re-Opens This Week

Howard Lindzon: Nobody and No Entity is Bigger than The Markets…2016 Edition

Jeff Carter: Getting to No

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Join Me on Thursday
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on June 14th, 2016 at 9:32 am

Join me this Thursday at 4 p.m. Eastern Time. I’ll be the guest on AdvisorShares’ weekly live “Alpha Call.” You can join the call and ask me a question.

Here are the call-in details:

Dial 1.310.372.7549 (or 1.800.356.8278) and enter access code 176071.

Morning News: June 14, 2016
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on June 14th, 2016 at 7:18 am

Central Banks And Markets On Accommodative Juice – Commodities To Rally

Brexit’s First 100 Days Promise Chaos, Fear, Damage Limitation

IEA Sees Oil Market Balance in 2016, Surplus to Re-Emerge Next Year

Microsoft Buys LinkedIn for $26.2 BIllion

Why Big Profits On Gun Stocks May Be In the Past

McDonald’s Return to Chicago Defies City’s Financial Troubles

New Valeant CEO Meets Investors as Doubts Grow About Drug Company

Alibaba’s Jack Ma: Better-Than-Ever Fakes Worsen Piracy War

NXP Semiconductors to Sell Standard Products Unit for $2.75 Billion

EU Set to Clear Unconditionally Marriott, Starwood Deal

Quicken Founder and Warren Buffett Have Ties Beyond Yahoo Deal

Josh Brown: Brexit “Remain” Vote as Market Catalyst

Roger Nusbaum: Rate Hike This Week Off The Table (Probably…)

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John Oliver on Retirement Plans
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on June 13th, 2016 at 6:02 pm