Morning News: November 5, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on November 5th, 2024 at 7:03 am

China’s Premier Li Projects Confidence in Economic Recovery

Nuclear Energy’s AI Boom Blew a Fuse—Here’s What Could Happen Next

Russia’s Oil Fleet and the Floating Armories That Help Keep Profits Flowing

Shale Turns Up Heat on OPEC as Big Oil Opens Its US Taps

Can the No. 1 Oil Producer Lead the Way on Climate? The US Is Trying It

Contraband Whiskey and a Secret Royal Dinner: Wall Street Goes to Riyadh

Trump Trades Step Into the Twilight Zone

Wall Street’s Great Election Trades Now Face the Moment of Truth

How the World Is Prepping for a Trump or Harris Victory

Cryptocurrency Markets, Promoted by Trump, Brace for Election Volatility

Trump and Harris Have Ignored a Looming Crisis

From Tariffs to EVs and Taxes: High Economic Stakes in the US Election

The Third Candidate in This Election Is the Economy

U.S. Farmers Brace for New Trump Trade Wars Amid Tariff Threats

Copycat ETFs Are Infiltrating a ‘Finders Keepers’ Tickers Market

Goldman Plans to Promote Biggest Partner Class of Solomon Era

Chips Industry Sees US Funding Hinge on Election

Boeing Ends Crippling Strike as Workers Accept Latest Offer

South Korea Fines Meta About $15 Million Over Collection of User Data

Wayfair Ups Promotions Without Taking a Big Financial Hit. Here’s How They Do It.

Uber’s Real Threat Isn’t From Robots

French Factories Falter as Europe’s Auto Industry Primes Major Layoffs

Ferrari Defies Wider Auto Industry Malaise With Higher Sales, Earnings

Meet Musk’s Fixer, the Powerful Executive Reshaping Tesla

KFC Owner Yum Brands Misses Wall Street’s Sales Estimate

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Morning News: November 4, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on November 4th, 2024 at 7:05 am

With Oil Prices Weak, OPEC+ Postpones Increases Again

Oil Gains as OPEC+ Further Delays Output Hike

China Isn’t Planning a ‘Bazooka’ Stimulus—at Least Not This Year

Foreclosures in China Soar, Threatening to Cut Off Bank Profits

America’s Free-Lunch Economy Is Over

A November Surprise is Jostling the Markets

‘Trump Trade’ Doubts Drag on Dollar, Boosting US Treasuries

On Telegram, a Violent Preview of What May Unfold on Election Day and After

All the President’s (Rich) Men

Fed Independence May Be Invisible Question on the Ballot Tuesday

The Two Things We Need From the Federal Reserve Right Now

Brookfield Turns on Credit Taps for Growth With $14 Billion Haul

Apollo Plans to Double Asia Pacific Headcount in Private Wealth

Blackstone Targest New European Markets in Global Wealth Push

LVMH’s Empty Chinese Megastore Signals Deepening Luxury Crash

Even Some High-Income Americans Can’t Afford New Cars Anymore

Buffett Keeps Cutting Apple Stake, With Value Down 60% This Year

Physical Intelligence, a Robot A.I. Specialist, Raises Millions From Bezos

Chinese Logistics Operators Are Getting Into U.S. Warehousing

In a Perfect World, We’d Eliminate Expense Reports. We’re Getting Closer.

Novo’s New Obesity Drug Is Targeting the Most Dramatic Weight Loss Yet

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Morning News: November 1, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on November 1st, 2024 at 7:04 am

Paralyzing Curbs on West Bank Complicate Path to Palestinian State

The US Is Squandering Its Hidden Advantage Over Xi Jinping

Big Tech Is Paving the Way for a Nuclear Breakthrough

Can Quake-Prone Japan Ever Embrace Nuclear Energy Again?

Evolution Mining Founder Isn’t Finished Yet

How to Include Investors in a National Climate Strategy

Pump Prices Tumble 20% in Key Swing States Ahead of Election

Oil Was Written Off. Now It’s the Most Productive US Industry

Exxon, Chevron Beat Estimates on Higher Permian Oil Production

Oil Interests Gave More Than $75 Million to Trump PACs, New Analysis Shows

Canada and Mexico Fear a More Protectionist America

Why Germany’s Resistance to an Italian Bank Takeover Is Raising Eyebrows

B. Riley to Sell Portion of Wealth-Management Unit to Stifel

Bitcoin Rally Masks Bleaker Picture in the Crypto World

Gold and Silver Prices Rise After Profit-Taking

Election Uncertainty Looms Over Hiring

Jobs Data Come as the Fed Stares Down a Complex Moment

Boeing Union Endorses Latest Offer to End Crippling Strike

Why There’s Hope for U.S. Factory Towns Laid Low by the ‘China Shock’

When the Price of Your Burrito Clashes With Your ‘Reference Price’

Brain Tech Is Here and Not as Creepy as You Think

Why a Memphis Community Is Fighting Elon Musk’s Supercomputer

Microsoft Picks Up the Pace of Spending But AI Demands More

Apple Sparks Concerns With Tepid Forecast, China Weakness

Amazon Reports Record $15.3 Billion Profit

What Nvidia Stock Investors Should Know About Meta Platforms’ Earnings

Reckitt Shares Surge After Baby Formula Lawsuit Win

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Morning News: October 31, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on October 31st, 2024 at 7:05 am

Historic Drought Upends Colombia’s Push to Quit Fossil Fuels

The Vaunted Consumption Story in the Fastest-Growing Major Economy Is Cracking

China Economy Picks Up on Stimulus Push Ahead of US Election

Gold Supported by Macro Risks, U.S. Election Uncertainty

Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk and the Billions of Ways to Influence an Election

23 Nobel Laureates Can’t Be Wrong About Trump

U.S. Election Chaos Would Endanger the Whole World

Election-Violence Risk Threatens US Dollar Dominance

The Next President Inherits a Remarkable Economy

Inflation Is Basically Back to Normal. Why Do Voters Still Feel Blah?

Surging Mortgage Rates Threaten US Housing Market Momentum

KKR’s $20 Billion Goal Tests Investor Appetite for Buyout Funds

Mizuho to Launch Saudi Arabia ETF With Sovereign Wealth Fund PIF

BIS Steps Back From Digital Payment Project Touted by Putin

Societe Generale Taps Sabadell’s Alvear as New CFO Amid Management Reshuffle

Big Tech Is Paving the Way for a Nuclear Breakthrough

Microsoft Shares Drop on Disappointing Cloud Growth Forecast

Meta Warns of Worsening AI Losses After Sales Narrowly Beat

Alexa’s New AI Brain Is Stuck in the Lab

Huawei Sales Rises 16% on Strong Demand for Its Phones and Chips

New York State Chosen as National Center for Chip Manufacturing Research

Inside the Winter Wonderland Where Walmart Hatches Its Holiday Plans

How Volkswagen Lost Its Way in China

Stellantis Says It Is Moving Quickly to Cut U.S. Inventories

Peloton Taps Ford Executive as CEO to Lead Turnaround Effort

Estée Lauder Pulls 2025 Guidance on China Uncertainty, New CEO

How Do You Get Kids to Read? Give Them Pizza.

Wendy’s Meal Deals, Humorous Offers Fail to Spark Growth

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Morning News: October 30, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on October 30th, 2024 at 7:07 am

Oil Producers Wrestle With Plans to Boost Supply

At Three Mile Island, a Test of Nuclear Power’s Promise

China Three Gorges Plans $10 Billion Renewables-Coal Power Base

Logging Is a Way of Life in Appalachia. It’s Hanging on by a Thread.

Spain Opens Its Doors to China as a European Trade War Looms

Eurozone Expands Faster Than Expected, Raising Hopes of Soft Landing

German Economy Avoids Recession But Not Broader Crisis

Supply Chain Woes Carry High Risks, Big Rewards for Some Companies

A Wall Street Landlord Bought Your Neighbor’s House. It’s a Mixed Blessing.

Can Cash Still Make You a King?

Trump Trades — Bitcoin Is Boss, Bonds at a Loss

UBS Profit Outstrips Expectations as CEO Warns on Looming Risks

JP Morgan Chase Is Suing Customers Over ‘Infinite Money Glitch’ ATM Scam

Visa Profit Beats Expectation on Resilient Consumer Spending

Wall Street Giants to Make $50 Billion Bet on AI and Power Projects

AI Leaders Gather in Saudi Arabia to Talk Energy

At a Glitzy Saudi Investment Forum, Almost No Mention of War

US Efforts to Contain Xi’s Push for Tech Supremacy Are Faltering

Alphabet’s Pricey AI Bet Pays Off With Cloud, Search Growth

Reddit Set to Hit Record High After Strong Sales Forecast

Boeing, Union Hold ‘Productive’ Talks in Attempt to End Strike

Volkswagen in Drive to Cut Costs as Earnings Plunge

Lilly Cuts Guidance on Disappointing Weight-Loss Drug Sales

AbbVie Lifts Profit Outlook as Inflammatory Drugs Rinvoq and Skyrizi Beat Estimates

GSK Cuts Vaccine Sales Outlook Amid U.S. Weakness

New Starbucks CEO Is About to Test Wall Street’s $21 Billion Bet

Somewhere Amid the Frappuccinos, Fans Say Starbucks Lost Something

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CWS Market Review – October 29, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on October 29th, 2024 at 6:31 pm

(This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

Job Openings Plunge by 400,000

We’re now in the heart of earnings season, and that’s dominating the news on Wall Street. We’re about one-third of the way through earnings season, and this will be an especially busy week. Companies that make up 42% of the S&P 500’s market value are due to report this week.

Many tech stocks are faring well. In fact, the Nasdaq rallied to a new high today. Alphabet, Google’s parent, reported very good results after the closing bell. Several other tech giants are due to report soon.

It’s hard to draw an overall theme for this earnings season just yet. Some stocks are doing quite well. Royal Caribbean raised its guidance for the fourth time this year, but Ford said that earnings will be at the low end of expectations.

It’s still early, but the beat rate for this earnings season is low. So far, 78% of companies that have reported earnings have beaten expectations. If that trend holds up, this will be the lowest beat rate since Q4 of 2022. That includes the fact that estimates were lowered—sometimes by a lot—as earnings season approached.

The S&P 500 is poised for its sixth positive month in a row, but the market hasn’t moved much in either direction for the past two weeks. That’s usually a bearish sign, but that can change on a dime.

Americans appear to be in an optimistic mood, at least according to the Conference Board. Earlier today, the group said that’s its reading for consumer confidence jumped 11% in October to 138. That’s the largest monthly increase in over three years. The Conference Board also has an “expectations” index, and that rose 8% to 89.1.

The bad news is that the number of job openings for September plunged to 7.44 million. That’s a drop of more than 400,000, and the prior month was also revised lower. Job openings are now at the lowest level since January 2021. The ratio of vacancies to available workers is down to 1.1. Not too long ago, the ratio was more than 2.0.

Layoffs are now at their highest since early 2023. We’re also seeing fewer quits. That’s usually a sign that the labor market is getting weaker. If that’s true, it’s very much different from the data we got in the last jobs report.

We’ll soon learn more. The October jobs report is due out this Friday. Wall Street is looking for a gain of 110,000 new jobs. That’s a low bar, and if that comes in weak, the entire view of the economy could change.

Unfortunately, it’s not going to be easy to divine a trend from these numbers. The problem is that the job numbers could be skewed due to the Boeing strike and the recent hurricanes. In other words, things could be worse than the official numbers say. Also, the job openings data tends to be very volatile.

To add more to the mix, the Federal Reserve meets next week, November 6 and 7. That’s after the election, but it may not be before we know who won. Despite all the hoopla in recent weeks, the expectation on Wall Street is that the Fed will again lower interest rates, this time by 0.25%. The futures market thinks the rate cut has a probability of 99%. I don’t see the Fed altering from its path anytime soon.

The real action lately hasn’t been in the stock market but in the bond market. Treasuries are supposed to be safe and sound but they’re looking at their worst month in two years. That’s probably because traders have realized the economy is better than they thought. Again, it’s not so much that the economy is soaring ahead, but it’s hanging in better than expected.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.28% today. That’s up 55 basis points since October 1. So the Fed lowers rates and the long-terms start to rise? That wasn’t supposed to happen, but Wall Street doesn’t always like to do what it’s told. It’s like a four-year old in that regard, and many others.

Much of the outlook for the market depends on how well the economy fares. Tomorrow morning we’ll get our first look at how the economy did during Q3. Wall Street is optimistic. The consensus is for growth 3.1%.

S&P 500 Calendar Effects

I’ve been working on a project that I thought I’d share with you. I’ve been knee-deep in market data for the last few days.

I took all the data for the S&P 500 going back to 1957. This is how the average month has performed for the index:

I used 1957 because that’s when the index was expanded from 90 to 500 stocks. As you can see, the stock market does much better near the start and end of each month (I used January as a stand-in). From the 6th to the 25th of each month has only been a little positive. The rest of the time accounts for the most growth.

Obviously, I don’t favor a strategy of going in and out of the market that quickly. I’m a confirmed buy-and-hold guy, but I find market patterns like this fascinating.

Here’s a look at how the S&P 500 has performed on each day and date of the month:

I’ve highlighted the best days in blue and the worst days in red. Again, I find this interesting, and it took me a long time to compile. Interestingly, Friday the 13th hasn’t been that bad for investors. Sorry, Jason.

By the way, today is the 95th anniversary of Black Tuesday, also a Tuesday the 29th.

That’s all for now. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

– Eddy

Morning News: October 29, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on October 29th, 2024 at 7:04 am

Bank of Japan Likely to Hold Rates, But Signal That Hikes Remain on the Table

Potential Japan Kingmaker Is Seeking Tax Breaks for Workers

Milei’s Revamp Offers CEOs a Glimmer of Optimism About Argentina

Two Euro-Zone Bellwether Economies Expanded Last Quarter

Weird Things Are Happening in the Bond Market

Big Bank Chiefs Don’t See Two More Fed Cuts This Year

Fed’s Rate Cut Revives Small Business Optimism and Plans to Borrow

HSBC Takes $300 Million Hit From Legacy Capital Repayment

Wall Street Sees Lines Blur Between Private Credit and Bank Debt

Wall Street Regulator Pledges to Press on Amid Trump Threats, Political Pressure

JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon Says ‘It’s Time to Fight Back’ on Regulation

Trump’s Vast Tariffs Would Rock Global Businesses and Shake Alliances

An Ethical Minefield Awaits a Possible Second Trump Presidency

How Russia, China and Iran Are Interfering in the Presidential Election

Elon Musk Wants Big Families. He Bought a Secret Compound for His.

Why a Key Biden Effort to Boost Affordable Housing Has Faced Hurdles

How American Tax Breaks Brought a Chinese Solar Energy Giant to Ohio

Alphabet Needs More Than Strong Results to Tame Wall of Worries

Apple Ships $6 Billion of iPhones From India in Big China Shift

Founder of TikTok Owner ByteDance Jumps to Top of China’s Rich List

China’s Top Oil Companies Turn in Mixed Results Amid Weak Demand

BP’s Profit Hits Four-Year Low on Commodity Market Weakness

Pfizer’s COVID-19 Drug Powers Strong Quarterly Profit as Activist Hovers

Novartis Lifts Guidance Again After Key Drugs Help Results

McDonald’s Sales Miss Estimates on International Weakness

McDonald’s Finds an Unlikely Savior to Finally Fix Its McFlurry Machines

Why You’re Seeing Scary-High Chocolate Candy Prices this Halloween

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Morning News: October 28, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on October 28th, 2024 at 7:07 am

$50 Billion Saudi Debt Drive Reflects Rising Financial Strain

Oil Plunges as Israel Limits Iran Strike to Military Targets

Pemex CEO Inherits One of World’s Most Inefficient Oil Companies

Galp Beats Profit Views on Resilient Upstream Performance

Cnooc Profit Rises as Expanded Output Offsets Weaker Demand

China Tightens Its Hold on Minerals Needed to Make Computer Chips

How Beijing Tamed a Lawless Industry and Gained Global Influence

What Japan’s Political Uncertainty Means for Its Market Rally

Britain Braces for ‘Painful’ Budget Meant to Recharge the Economy

Dollar Rises Further Due to U.S. Economic Strength, Ahead of Election

At a Pivotal Moment, U.S. Economic Data Will Be a Mess

Economists Warn of New Inflation Hazards After Election

Can a Democrat Be the Candidate of Small Business? Harris Gives It a Try.

Companies Are Dropping the D or E From DEI to Avoid Criticism

S&P 500 Profit Beats Disappoint as Season Kicks Into High Gear

The Porterhouse at Weis Points to Inflation’s Demise

Banks Seek AT1 Replacements For Year’s Biggest Turnarounds

For Investors, What if This Time Is Different?

Elliott Hunts Bigger Prey, Testing Limits in Barrage of Activism

Apple Blocked From Selling iPhone 16 Models in Indonesia

Meg Whitman’s Mission in Africa: American Tech Over Chinese

Boeing Launches $19 Billion Share Sale to Thwart Downgrade

At Boeing and Starbucks, Different Problems but Similar CEO Messages

VW Eyes Closing Three German Factories in Cost-Cutting Push

Philips Cuts Sales Target Due to Weak China Demand

How Taxpayers Are Helping Health Insurers Make Even Bigger Profits

The Last Few Months Have Been a Lot for McDonald’s

Swiggy Aims to Kick Off $1.35 Billion India IPO Mid-Next Week

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Morning News: October 25, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on October 25th, 2024 at 7:04 am

Arctic Doomsday Vault Stashes More Seeds for Future Food

Gender Rift on Climate Change Widens Among Young Americans

South Africa Unveils Job Plan Amid Coal Phase-Out Backlash

Why the Philippines Is Building Its Capital Market

Tokyo Consumer Inflation Slows Below Bank of Japan’s Target

Russia’s Central Bank Lifts Key Interest Rate to Post-Invasion High

China Lawmakers to Meet During US Election Amid Stimulus Hopes

Trump 2.0 Haunts World Economy Chiefs Gathering in Washington Before Vote

It’s the Inflation, Stupid: Why the Working Class Wants Trump Back

U.S. Bond Market Braces for the ‘Trump Trade’ of Large Tariffs and Deficits

Clock Change Will Spark Headache for Power Market Traders

Wall Street Takes Tax-Loss Harvesting to the Next Level

Millennium Among Hedge Funds Losing Money Over Failed China Deal

Barclays Wins Bid to Slash UK Investors’ $727 Million ‘Dark Pool’ Lawsuit

What Can We Learn From the Romans About Money?

Masayoshi Son Inflates the AI Bubble Even More

Arm CEO Sees AI Transforming the World Much Faster Than the Internet

Apple Gets Sell Rating as ‘Unrealistic’ Expectations Turn KeyBanc Bearish

Why Boeing Workers Rejected a New Contract: Retirement Benefits

Auto CEOs Aren’t Telling the Whole Story About Phasing Out Combustion Cars

Mercedes-Benz Earnings Slump on Tough Economic Backdrop, Fierce Competition

Elon Musk’s Dream of a Drive-In Movie Diner With EV Charging Is Taking Shape

Electrolux Shares Tumble After North America Weakness Weighs on Results

Sanofi Earnings Get Boost From Early Vaccine Sales

Tapestry $8.5 Billion Capri Deal Halted by Judge in FTC Win

The Influencer Bros Selling More Baseball Bats Than the Pros

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Morning News: October 24, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on October 24th, 2024 at 7:04 am

Eurozone Activity Stagnates on Germany, France Weakness

Putin Warns of Middle East Conflagration and Debates Ukraine at BRICS

Brazil Reluctant to Pick Between US and China in Polarized World

The U.S. and IMF Disagree About China. That’s A Problem.

Trump Inflation Is Being Priced In by Traders

Bond Markets Fear the ‘Known Unknown’ of a GOP Sweep

The French Connection to Online Bets on Trump

Era of Big Price Hikes Is Over, Giving Comfort to the Fed

Rate Cuts to Accelerate US Banks’ Move to Higher-Yielding Investments

Bankers Do Anything It Takes to Grab a Slice of Rare Buyout Deal

Apple and Goldman Sachs Must Pay Nearly $90 Million in Credit-Card Inquiry

Russia Says It Can’t Build All the Vessels It Needs for Arctic Shipping Route

More Companies Ditch Junk Carbon Offsets but New Buyers Loom

Tether Asks Turkey to Consider Digital Token for Borate Minerals

Biden Administration Outlines Government ‘Guardrails’ for A.I. Tools

The White House Bet Big on Intel. Will It Backfire?

How Intel Got Left Behind in the A.I. Chip Boom

Boeing Workers Resoundingly Reject New Contract and Extend Strike

Why It’s Getting Harder to Fly to China

New York’s Air Traffic Has Still Been Messy, Even When Run Out of Philadelphia

Southwest Air Tops Profit Estimates as Cost Cuts Take Hold

Southwest Airlines Ends Feud With Activist Investor Elliott

Keurig to Buy Ghost Energy Drinks for Over $1 Billion

Unilever Underlying Sales Beat Forecasts as Shoppers Welcome Easing Price Hikes

Kroger and Walmart Deny ‘Surge Pricing’ After Adopting Digital Price Tags

TKO to Pay $3.25 Billion for Endeavor’s Bull Riding, Other Units

Gucci Has Problems. The Biggest May Be a Safe New Look

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