Morning News: November 19, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on November 19th, 2024 at 7:07 am

Oil Glut Set to Thwart Trump’s Call to ‘Frack, Frack, Frack’

German Defense Chief Sees Baltic Cable Breaches as Sabotage

Why US Will Let Ukraine Strike Inside Russia With American Missiles

Gold Is at the Mercy of Trump, China and King Dollar

Things Are Quiet in Consumer Credit. Too Quiet.

Trump’s Impossible Task: Delivering for the Working Class and Billionaires

Rethinking the Worst-Case Fears About Trump Tariffs

Wall Street’s Top Cop Plans to Exit Before Trump Takes Power

Five Ways R.F.K. Jr. Could Undermine Lifesaving Childhood Vaccines

RFK Jr. Would Put the Economy at Risk, Too

Companies With Immigrant Workforces Are Preparing for Raids

While You Were Voting, Corporate America Made Bank

Goldman Sachs Chairman Expects Deals to Pick Up in 2025

Morgan Stanley Courts Employees of Near-IPO Companies for Wealth Management

China’s Chip Advances Stall as US Curbs Hit Huawei AI Product

When IR Met AI: How the Technology Is Shaping Earnings-Day Prep

Nvidia’s Options Primed for $300-Billion Price Swing After Earnings

Google’s Anthropic AI Deal Cleared by UK Antitrust Agency

DOJ Will Push Google to Sell Chrome to Break Search Monopoly

Amcor to Acquire Berry Global in $8.4 Billion Packaging Deal

The Future of Abortion Rights Could Be Decided by Accident

Lowe’s Lifts Sales Forecast on Improving Housing Spend

Robots Struggle to Match Warehouse Workers on ‘Really Hard’ Jobs

Walmart Raises Outlook on Strong Spending From Value-Seekers

Shoppers Are Ditching Classic Brands They Once Loved

Blackstone Strikes Deal for Jersey Mike’s Subs

Swiss Watch Exports Fall Again Amid Plummeting Demand in China

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Morning News: November 18, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on November 18th, 2024 at 7:04 am

Why Oil Companies Are Walking Back From Green Energy

Why Big Oil Doesn’t Mind Big Regulation

A Global Fund for Climate Disasters Is Taking Shape in Trump’s Shadow

Turkmenistan’s Gas Company Will Enlist Experts to Combat Methane Leaks

For Decades, Installing E.V. Chargers Didn’t Pay Off for Retailers. Now It Does.

Indian Students Rush to US Colleges, Driving Attendance Record

Moody’s Cuts Bangladesh Further Into Junk on Political Risks

Greek Banks Looking at Deals Abroad After Painful Restructurings

Eurozone Trade Surplus Rises on Jump in Exports to U.S.

Powell May Be Waiting Until 2026 for Housing Inflation to Cool

Trump Treasury Cabinet Pick in Flux as Jockeying Slows Selection

Trump Picks Brendan Carr to Lead F.C.C.

Four Priorities for Trump’s Top Telecom Regulator

Crypto Prediction Markets Have a Cloudy Future

HSBC Managers Are Competing to Keep Their Jobs in CEO’s Revamp

Bain Capital Raises $5.7 Billion for Global Special Situations

Wall Street Bankers Spot a Fat Payday in $1 Trillion AI Hysteria

Manufacturing Was Set to Rebound. Then Trump Happened.

Tim Berners-Lee Wants the Internet Back

Xiaomi Profit Beats on Robust Sales Across Segments

Why Tech Billionaires Love the Author of Jurassic Park

Ben & Jerry’s Vs. Unilever Is the End of Corporate Do-Gooderism

Spirit Air Files Bankruptcy Following Failed JetBlue Tie-Up

Auto Industry Braces for Whiplash as Trump Takes Power

Novo Nordisk Launches Wegovy in China With Prices Well Below US

Substack’s Great, Big, Messy Political Experiment

Paramount Takes Promotional Stunt to New Level for ‘Gladiator II’

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Morning News: November 15, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on November 15th, 2024 at 7:03 am

Russia Envoy Backs Paris Climate Deal, Hopes Trump Will Too

Oil Set for Weekly Loss Amid Demand Worries, Rate-Cut Slowdown Prospects

World Fears a Wider Trade War. Malaysia Sees an Opportunity.

China Stimulus Boosts Domestic Consumption as Trump Tariffs Loom

Eurozone Economy to Grow Less Strongly as Trade Spat Brews, EU Says

Trump US Election Win Comes With a Catch for Israel’s Far-Right

America’s Homes Are Piggy Banks That Few People Can Afford to Raid

CEOs Brace for the Chaos of Another Four Years of Trump

Boston Fed President Says December Rate Cut Isn’t a ‘Done Deal’

‘Flood of Money’ Chases US Banking’s Hottest New Trade

Traders Chase Post-Election Stock Gains in US Options Market

Investors Circle the Trump Trade’s Global Market Victims

Betting on Tesla Helped Ron Baron Beat the Index. Now He’s Getting a Trump Bump

Pay Close Attention to Your Credit Card Balance Under Trump 2.0

Musk’s New Job For Trump Already Exists

How Musk’s DOGE Can Actually Do Some Good

Trump’s Anti-Regulation Pitch Is Exactly What the AI Industry Wants to Hear

Musk Escalates Altman Legal Feud, Casting OpenAI as Monopolist

Super Micro’s Looming Nasdaq Deadline Stokes Delisting Fears

Biden Cements TSMC Grant Before Trump Takes Over

Hokkaido Electric Sees Power Demand Surge With Data Center Boom

Disney Targets $1 Billion in Streaming Profit in New Fiscal Year

DoorDash Wants to Give You a Ride and a TV Show With Dinner

Startups Turn to Ponds to Find the Next Climate-Fighting Superfood

The Onion Wins Bid to Buy Infowars, Alex Jones’s Site, Out of Bankruptcy

Returns Are a Headache. More Retailers Are Saying, Just ‘Keep It.’

Human in Bear Suit Was Used to Defraud Insurance Companies, Officials Say

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Morning News: November 14, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on November 14th, 2024 at 7:03 am

Euro Likely to Fall Further on ECB-Fed Divergence

Why the Dollar Keeps Getting Stronger

Dollar’s Enduring Appeal on Show in China’s Sovereign Bond Sale

Lula’s Embrace of Xi Sets Up a Clash Over Trump’s China Policy

Global Oil Market Faces a Million-Barrel Glut Next Year, the IEA Says

EIB to Unveil €500 Million in Bank Guarantees for Clean Tech

Trump Threatens ESG Investing That Thrived in His First Term

Kugler Says Fed Must Focus on Both Inflation and Jobs Goals

Inflation Needs Subtlety Right Now. It’s Getting Trump

Wall Street Bankers Temper Optimism A Week After Trump Victory

Crypto Industry Pushes for Policy Sea Change After Trump Victory

What Can Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency Actually Do?

Private Equity Finds Yet Another Way to Keep the Money Coming In

Brookfield Corp. Profit Climbs as Wealth Unit Boosts Results

CEOs Think Silence Will Save Them From Trump. They’re Wrong.

What Would a Matt Gaetz Justice Department Mean for Business?

Meta’s Week of Setbacks Suggests Tough Times Ahead

Homeland Security Department to Release New A.I. Guidance

Siemens Profit Tops Forecasts as Data-Center Demand Offsets Automation Woes

Disney Profit Beats Expectations as Movies, Streaming Gain

Disney Paints a Rosy Picture for Coming Years

The Fight for 7-Eleven Isn’t Just About Money

Capri, Tapestry Scrap Merger After FTC Wins Blocking Order

Arnault Son Climbs LVMH’s Top Ranks in Further Leadership Reshuffle

JD.com Profit, Revenue Rise as Consumer Sentiment Improves

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Morning News: November 13, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on November 13th, 2024 at 7:05 am

Countries Are Pledging Money They Don’t Control at COP29

Microsoft and Royal Bank of Canada Bet on New Approach to Carbon Cleanup

North Dakota Wants Your Carbon, But Not Your Climate Science

Copper Smelters Battered by Tight Supply and Weakening Demand

RWE Plans $1.6 Billion Buyback Due to Expected U.S., Europe Project Delays

Pro-Government Economists Blame Central Bank for Plunging Russia Into ‘Stagflation’

Gamblers Pay 400% Loan Rates to Fund Betting Frenzy in Brazil

Trump’s Contempt Is China’s Gain in Latin America

Trump Picks Musk, Ramaswamy for Government Efficiency Effort

Mr. Musk Goes to Washington — With a $2 Trillion Agenda

Powell Says US Inflation Views Are Anchored — Are They?

Fed’s Waller Says Central Bank Should Limit Its Role in Payment Systems

Republicans See a Better Economic Outlook. Now It’s Democrats Who Don’t.

Crypto Industry Lobbies Trump and His Allies to Capitalize on Election Wins

US CPI to Show Another Firm Reading, Leaving Fed Path Up in Air

Citadel Warns Recruiters: Don’t Pitch Fake Jobs

Klarna Readies US IPO With Valuation Recovering From Plunge

Europe’s Tech Startups Staggered by Lilium, Northvolt ‘Disaster’

Mizuho Financial Group to Buy 15% of Rakuten Card for $1 Billion

Swiggy Delivers 17% Surge in Debut as Investors Bet on Indian Quick Commerce

Tesla’s Meme-Like Stock Surge Leaves Wall Street Feeling Wary

7-Eleven Owner Considers Going Private in Japan’s Biggest $58 Billion Buyout

Spirit Air Nears Bankruptcy That Would Wipe Out Shareholders

Inside VW and Rivian’s $5.8 Billion Bet to Rescue Each Other

Sports League Platform Volo to Grow Via M&A With Bluestone Stake

The Streaming Wars Didn’t Kill the Little Guys. In Fact, They’re Thriving.

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CWS Market Review – November 12, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on November 12th, 2024 at 6:20 pm

(This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

On Monday, the stock market rallied to another new high. This was the S&P 500’s first ever close above 6,000 and it was the index’s 51st record high this year. The S&P 500 closed a bit lower today which snapped a five-day winning streak. Over those five days, the index gained a little over 5%.

For some context, the S&P 500 first closed above 600 on November 17, 1995. The index first closed above 60 on July 7, 1959.

We can even go back to a few days in 1932 when the S&P 500 closed below 6, but there’s a footnote attached to that stat. That would be the last time the index closed below 6, but we can’t say when the first time was because that day preceded the lifespan of the S&P 500. Still, a 1,000-fold gain in 92 years is impressive.

The Trump Trade Takes Over Wall Street

We now know what the “Trump Trade” is, but it may not last long. The Trump Trade is the market rewarding cyclicals, especially domestic manufacturers. That tends to skew towards small-cap stocks and the little guys have been very popular in recent days. The Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) is already up more than 10% this month.

The bond market reacted swiftly. The yield on the 10-year Treasury jumped 16 basis points to close at 4.42%, although the yield has backed down after the past few days.

I’ve been impressed by how some cyclical stocks have responded. That often happens at the same time long-term bond yields rise. For example, the S&P 500 Industrials ETF (XLI) has performed well. Financial stocks have also done well. The S&P 500 Financials ETF (XLF) rallied more than 6% on Wednesday and continued to go higher after that.

A good example of rallying financials comes from our Buy List. On Tuesday, shares of Farmer Mac (AGM) rallied more than 6% thanks to a good earnings report. Then on Wednesday, the day after the election, Farmer Mac ran up another 10%. The shares reached their highest point since this summer. The stock had been cheap for a long time, but the market seemed to only realize it all at once.

How about the rally in Bitcoin? President-Elect Trump promised to be a crypto-friendly president. He even talked about having a bitcoin strategic reserve. On election day, Bitcoin rose 9%, and it gained another 10% over the weekend.

Bitcoin is getting very close to $90,000. Two years ago, it was at $17,000. So far this month, Bitcoin has gained 28%, and November isn’t even half over.

By the way, in September, former NBA great Scottie Pippen made a deadly accurate prediction about the price of Bitcoin.

Satoshi Nakamoto visited me in my dream last night and predicted that #Bitcoin would be at $84,650 on November 5, 2024. Not financial advice.

— Scottie Pippen (@ScottiePippen) September 3, 2024

If you feel that you need to invest in Bitcoin, I’ll simply add that Bitcoin has had several major pullbacks in its short history.

Wall Street Braces for Tomorrow’s CPI Report

Now that Wall Street is past the election, the next big test for the market comes tomorrow morning when the October CPI report is released.

I’ll be honest, this report has some folks scared. The inflation data has mostly been getting better, but a bad report could unravel a lot of market narratives.

For September, the Consumer Price Index increased by 0.18%. That almost matched the 0.15% increase we had in July, and the 0.19% increase we had in August. The last five reports have all come in less than 0.2%.

For September, the 12-month rate reached 2.4% which was more than expected. Still, that’s a lot better than March when the 12-month rate hit 3.5%, and it’s far better than the peak of 9.1% reached in June 2022. Inflation has been improving, but it’s happened slowly.

The “core rate,” which excludes food and energy prices, hasn’t fared as well. For September, core inflation increased by 0.3%. That was the highest since March. In September, the 12-month core rate reached 3.3%.

The Fed meets again in five weeks, and there appears to be some doubt whether the Fed will cut rates again. Futures traders currently think there’s a 55% chance that the Fed will cut and a 45% chance that they’ll hold steady.

I suspect that a cut is probably coming next month but the number of cuts for next year may be in doubt. In September, Wall Street thought the Fed would have interest rates at 3% by this June. Now they think the Fed will be at 4% by June. I wouldn’t be surprised if we only see two more rate cuts next year.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell was recently asked if he would resign if President-Elect Trump wanted him to. He gave a one word reply: “No.”

I noticed that Home Depot (HD) raised its sales guidance today. Last quarter, ending in late October, same-store sales fell 1.3%. Those beat expectations, and it was HD’s best sales performance in nearly two years. That says a lot when your best quarterly growth of the last seven quarters was still a drop.

I like to keep an eye on Home Depot’s fortunes because it’s a good barometer for the health of the home improvement sector. HD said it now expects to see comparable store sales fall by 2.5% for this year. That’s not great, but it’s better than the previous guidance for a drop of 3% to 4%.

Home Depot saw a pickup in demand for seasonal items and supplies for certain outdoor projects, some of which was related to hurricanes that have struck the US in recent months. Warm weather also helped with sales of products like grills, Chief Financial Officer Richard McPhail said in an interview Tuesday.

Home Depot said it anticipates some hurricane-related sales during the current quarter. Generators, lumber and clean-up products typically sell well during weather events.

Home Depot’s business can be particularly sensitive to the Fed’s policies since consumers often use debt to finance their home improvement projections. HD said that sales of garden and paint products increased but lumber and plumbing came in below expectations.

Home Depot is one of the first major big box retailers to report earnings. Soon we’ll get reports from companies like Target, Walmart and Lowe’s. These companies could be looking at a strong holiday shopping season.

Shares of Tyson Foods (TSN) got a nice bump today after the food company said it beat earnings. At one point, TSN was up more than 12% in today’s trading. It was the best-performing stock in the S&P 500 today.

This is interesting to see because Tyson is a good company, but the stock price had not done well. Tyson now sees its operating profit rising by 22% this year. That’s more than Wall Street had expected.

Demand for chicken, Tyson’s second-largest source of revenue, has improved as consumers look for cheaper alternatives to beef. Plunging prices for corn and soybeans also made it cheaper to feed animals, while a series of factory shutdowns and other measures boosted cost savings.

Last quarter, Tyson’s chicken business made up 70% of its sales while beef was a money loser. For its fiscal Q4, Tyson made 92 cents per share. The consensus on Wall Street had been for earnings of 69 cents per share.

Over the last five years, the S&P 500 has nearly doubled but TSN is down by two-thirds. Even after today’s rally, shares of TSN still yield a healthy 3.3%. Tyson’s been down so long, it’s hard for me to see this as a bargain, but with more quarters like this last one, Tyson would be a compelling buy.

That’s all for now. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

– Eddy

Morning News: November 12, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on November 12th, 2024 at 7:05 am

Alibaba, JD Tout Singles’ Day Highs While China Economy Sags

Hong Kong’s Tycoons Are Selling Trophy Homes at Fire Sale Prices

South Korea State Think Tank Cuts Growth Forecasts

Gloomy Russia Billionaires See Little to Cheer in Trump’s Win

EU’s Kallas Backs Tapping Russian Assets Directly to Aid Kyiv

Europe Braces for Trump: ‘Worst Economic Nightmare Has Come True’

Europe Must Not Be ‘Unprepared’ For Trade War, ECB’s Rehn Says

A Guide to Trump’s Tariff Plans: Expect High Drama and a Bumpy Rollout

Trump’s Tariffs Could Deal a Blow to Mexico’s Car Factories

Powell Doesn’t Fear Trump. He Also Can’t Contain Him.

The Wall Street CEO Raising His Hand to Run Trump’s Economy

Bonuses Set to Grow Across Wall Street for First Time Since 2021

Bitcoin Nears $90,000 as Crypto Market Exceeds Pandemic-Era Peak

The 1928 Rally Was Just Like This One

SoftBank Back in Profit on Tech Investment Gains

Visa Teams Up with Affirm to Launch Card for Flexible Payments in US

Musk’s AI Nightmares Could Blunt Trump’s Tech Ambitions

OPEC Trims Demand Forecast for Fourth Straight Month

The World’s Best Hope to Beat Climate Change Is Vanishing

Shell Wins Appeal Against Landmark Carbon-Emissions Ruling

Exxon CEO Pushes Back on Trump’s Anti-Climate Change Agenda

Home Depot Raises Outlook as Hurricanes Spur Demand for Repairs

Tyson Forecasts Higher Earnings in 2025 on Chicken Turnaround

Shopify Surges After Third Quarter Revenue Beats Estimates

A Decade Into the Digitialization of Mobility, Winners and Losers Emerge

Airlines Hate ‘Skiplagging.’ Meet the Man Who Helps Travelers Pull It Off.

AstraZeneca Raises Outlook, Plans U.S. Investment

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Morning News: November 11, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on November 11th, 2024 at 7:05 am

ADB Increases Climate Finance After US, Japan Give World’s First Sovereign Guarantees

Trump Win Upends the Fight for Climate Cash at COP29

Trump Will Bury ESG, But It Was Already Dead

China Nears Record $1 Trillion Trade Surplus as Trump Returns

As Trump Threatens a Wider Trade War, the U.S. Confronts a Changed China

How Trump Divides Chinese Who Aspire to Democracy

Here’s What Trump’s Return Means for US Sanctions Policy

The White House Will Be Shedding Its Union Label

Mortgage Rates Fell, Then Rose. What Comes Next?

Trump Expected to Narrow Treasury Chief Options by Week’s End

If Trump Tries to Fire Powell, Fed Chair Is Ready for a Legal Fight

Bond Market on Risky Path as Traders Regroup From Wild Week

Bitcoin Soars Above $82,000 as Trump Win Boosts Crypto Prospects

Wall Street Math Wizards Are Decoding Private-Market Returns

Hedge-Funds Hit by ‘Arbageddon’ Sense Brighter Future After Trump Win

Hedge Funds Shorting Tesla Just Lost More Than $5 Billion

Carvana Delivers Agony and Ecstasy for Hedge Funds

Cathie Wood Predicts Trump’s White House Return Will Ignite Reagan-Era Economic Boom Through Deregulation And Tax Cuts: ‘Likely To Turbocharge The US Economy’

FTX Sues Binance, Ex-CEO Zhao Seeking $1.8 Billion Clawback

Harris Tech VC Boosters Seek the Industry Silver Lining in Her Loss

Adnoc Gas Expects Earnings Boost From Rising Gas Demand

Resolute Mining CEO, Two Other Employees Detained by Officials in Mali

Continental Posts Higher Profit as Cost Cuts Offset Sales Pressure

Talabat Eyes IPO That May Value It More Than Delivery Hero

A New Streaming Customer Emerges: the Subscription Pauser

Buying Shoes at Macy’s Isn’t Fun. Its New CEO Is Trying to Change That.

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Morning News: November 8, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on November 8th, 2024 at 7:04 am

Brazil Inflation Speeds Further Above Target as Rates Go Higher

Japan Finance Minister Issues Fresh Warning After Yen’s Tumble

EU Is Looking at Ramping Up Ukraine Aid If Trump Pulls the Plug

PBOC Signals Greater Resolve on Dovish Policy, Ample Liquidity

China Unveils $1.4 Trillion Debt Swap, Saves Stimulus for Trump

Investors Dial Back ‘Trump Trades’ as Policy Questions Remain

Trump Is Stuck With the Fed’s Powell. Will He Make Peace?

Forget a Soft Landing. The Fed’s Biggest Challenge May Be Trump.

Powell Signals Readiness to Defy Trump in Defense of Fed

What a Second Trump Term Could Mean for Your Money

Even at a Time Like This, Slow and Steady Works in the Stock Market

US Banks to Gain from Looser Capital, Merger Policies Under Trump

The Wall Street Leaders Who Could Play a Role in Trump’s New Administration

Trump Plans to Dismantle Biden’s Climate Law. It Won’t Be Easy

Trump’s ‘Drill, Baby, Drill’ Cuts Two Ways for Oil Companies

Why Trump Faces a Losing Tech War Against China

Big Tech’s Appetite to Resist Trump Appears Weaker This Time Around

Companies Brace for the Return of Trump’s Old Trade Gripes

Boeing CEO Says Furloughed Workers Will Be Paid for Lost Time

Tesla Begins Offering Cybertruck Leases Starting at $999 a Month

Amazon Is Looking to Revamp Its Grocery Delivery

Steven Madden C.E.O. Says It Is Moving Production Out of China

Trump’s Win Cemented It: New Media Is Leaving the Old Guard Behind

Audacious Bet on High-End Liquor Mints Indian Billionaire

Cartier Owner Richemont’s Sales Fall as Luxury’s China Woes Linger

Has Luxury Lost Its Shine?

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Morning News: November 7, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on November 7th, 2024 at 7:05 am

Bahamas Raises Alarm on Lack of Cash to Survive Fast-Warming World

Russian Central Bank Blames Labour Shortages, Not High Rates, for Investment Slowdown

Germany’s Looming Snap Vote Throws Wrench Into Energy Goals

German Trade Surplus Shrinks as Trump Tariffs Loom

Bank of England Cuts Interest Rates, but Warns of Sticky Inflation

Brazil’s Oil Production Expected to Disappoint

Xi Calls for Closer Ties With Malaysia on New Energy, AI

‘The King Is Back:’ Binance Billionaire CZ Plots Life After Prison

Trump Comeback Means Reckoning for China as It Draws Up Stimulus

Jerome Powell Is Back in Trump’s World and About to Feel the Heat

What Trump’s Win Means for Fed Independence

How the Trump Whale Correctly Called the Election

A Guns, Not Butter World Will Mean Higher Inflation

Why Trump’s Plan to Escalate Tariffs Has So Many Haters

JPMorgan CEO Dimon to Remain at Bank and Has No Plans to Join Trump Administration

Tech Giants Face a Familiar Uncertainty With Trump

Before the Election, Tech C.E.O.s Were Quietly Courting Trump

Trump-Musk Partnership Puts New Spin on Value of X

Canada Shuts TikTok’s Offices Over National Security Risks

Qualcomm, Arm Results Show Phone Industry Making Uneven Comeback

Wendy’s Bets on Palantir AI to Keep Up With $1 Frosty Demand

Warner Bros. Boosts Streaming Subscribers on International Push

1-800-Flowers Founder Says Speedy Election Call Saved Christmas

Nissan Plans 9,000 Job Cuts, Slashes Guidance After Loss

FedEx and UPS Locked in Price War to Lure Small Businesses

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