Morning News: October 15, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on October 15th, 2024 at 7:06 am

China Moves to Tax the Ultra-Rich for Overseas Investment Gains

Why Taiwan’s Status Risks Igniting a US-China Clash

German Economic Expectations Climb Ahead of ECB Rate Cut

IMF Warns Rise In Government Debt Could Be Sharper Than Anticipated

US Weighs Capping Exports of AI Chips From Nvidia and AMD to Some Countries

Prediction Markets Tell a Different Story From the Polls

Can the Stock Market Keep Going Up? Market Watchers Think So.

The Battle Between Dockworkers and Robots Isn’t Over

To Lure Home Buyers, Builders Still Have to Help With High Mortgage Costs

Simple Economics Can Help Cut Health-Care Costs

The Mighty American Consumer Is Powered by Higher Earners

Some Hedge Funds Are Missing a Trick — Volume Alpha

Goldman Stock Traders Head to Record Year, Fuel 45% Profit Surge

BofA Investment Bankers, Traders Help Earnings Top Estimates

A Key to Citi’s Regulatory Woes – Staff Need Skills ‘Enhancement’

Female Leadership Suffers When Private Equity Firms Invest

Bankers Are at a Loss When It Comes to Biodiversity

IEA Trims Oil-Demand Forecast for Third Consecutive Month

TotalEnergies Expects Continued Refining Weakness, Lower Hydrocarbon Production

The Shipping Industry Can Chart a Clearer Course to Go Green

This Year’s Hottest App Is a Wildfire Tracker

Boeing to Raise as Much as $25 Billion to Boost Liquidity

VW, BMW and Mercedes Are Getting Left in the Dust by China’s EVs

Walgreens Plans to Shutter 14% of US Stores Over Three Years

How Starbucks Became a Sugary Teen Emporium

Bandai Namco Begins to Cut Headcount After Culling Game Titles

New York Times to Bezos-Backed AI Startup: Stop Using Our Stuff

What Should a Music Magazine Be in the TikTok Era? Pitchfork Alumni Have an Idea.

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Morning News: October 14, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on October 14th, 2024 at 7:05 am

OPEC Cuts Global Oil Demand Growth Forecasts for Third Consecutive Month

Russian Oil Flows Through Western ‘Price Cap’ as Shadow Fleet Grows

China Carbon Prices Hit Record High Ahead of Compliance Deadline

China’s Clean Up Job to Tidy its Property and Local Government Mess

Killing of Japanese Boy Leaves Chinese Asking: Is This My Country?

Chinese Stocks Climb as Traders See Hope in Beijing’s Promises

Asia Watching China’s Policy Push Closely as Economies Brace for Spillover

Nobel for Economics Awarded to Authors of ‘Why Nations Fail,’ Former IMF Chief Economist

The Fed Has a Dependency Problem That Needs Fixing

CEOs and Analysts Are at Odds About S&P 500’s Earnings Outlook

Economists Say Inflation, Deficits Will Be Higher Under Trump Than Harris

Can Wall St. Help Harris Win Pennsylvania?

B. Riley Reaches Deal With Oaktree on Great American Partnership

The Harsh Reality of ‘Hurricane Insurance’

Why OpenAI Is at War With an Obscure Idea Man

Amazon Delivers Fewer Big Swings, Lower Costs in the Jassy Era

US Tech Firms to Invest $8.2 Billion in UK Data Centres

GM, Barclays Sign Long-Term Credit Card Partnership Agreement

Rivian: The Sinking Ship Of The EV Revolution

aBoeing’s Endless Doom Loop Gives No Respite to CEO Ortberg

Why Lasers Could Be Kryptonite for Drones

Lundbeck to Buy Longboard Pharma in $2.6 Billion Deal

Starbucks Scales Back Discounts Under New CEO

The Secretive Dynasty That Controls the Boar’s Head Brand

Attention Kmart Shoppers: It’s Closing Time

The Perils of Personalizing Your $500,000 Ferrari

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Morning News: October 11, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on October 11th, 2024 at 7:02 am

Global Trade Grows but Remains Vulnerable to War and Geopolitics

China Investors Expect $283 Billion of New Stimulus This Weekend

Hurricanes and Other Disasters Will Help Shape Our Future Cities

Amazon Prefers Solar and Wind Energy to Nuclear Power in Asia

Middle East Conflict Creates a Volatile Moment for Oil Markets

Big Oil Gives a Reminder of the Market’s Weak Foundations

Bank of Korea Cuts Rate, Joining Global Wave of Policy Easing

A Record $6.47 Trillion Is Piling Up in US Money-Market Funds

Inflation Is Finally Losing Its Power Over Markets

The Market Has Been Fabulous, Maybe Excessively So

Wall St. Profits Surge Despite Questions About the Economy

BlackRock Hits $11.5 Trillion of Assets With Private-Market Push

JPMorgan Profit Beats Estimates on Investment Banking Strength, Higher Interest Income

Wells Fargo Profit Beats Forecasts as Provisions Shrink, Shares Rise

BNY Q3 Profit Rises as Assets Under Custody and Administration top $50 Trillion

The IPO Slump Is Fine Unless You’re Jamie Dimon

Boeing Hardens Tone With Union, Laments ‘Bad Faith Bargaining’

How Uber and Lyft Used a Loophole to Deny NYC Drivers Millions in Pay

Noel Tata Is New Tata Trusts Head to oversee $165 Billion Group

Musk Shows Tesla Cybercab, Sees Sub-$30,000 Cost and 2026 Production

Polestar CEO Says EV Maker Must Start ‘Actively Selling Cars’

Stellantis Shares Fall as Executive Shake-Up Fails to Calm Nerves

Nippon Steel to Sell Stake in Calvert JV to ArcelorMittal in Push for U.S. Steel Deal

Sanofi in Talks to Sell Controlling Stake in Consumer Health Arm to CD&R

Butter Made From CO2 Is Coming as Startups Chase New Fat Sources

For Student Athletes in Missouri, Playing at Home Is Lucrative

Lego Leaps Into Documentaries, With Pharrell Williams as the Subject

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Morning News: October 10, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on October 10th, 2024 at 7:04 am

Top African Lithium Producer, Zimbabwe Plans Incentives to Encourage Mineral Processing

China’s Central Bank Launches Swap Facility to Boost Stock Market

China Wages End Two Quarters of Gains, Adding Deflationary Risks

Hedge Funds Sold Record Chinese Stocks on Tuesday, Goldman Says

Multilateral Banks Could Lend Up to $480 Billion More Before Rating Downgrades, Fitch Says

Hurricane Milton and the Economy

Inflation Is Expected to Cool

US CPI Data Will Likely Show Further Disinflation in September

For Bond Traders, It’s Wait Till Next Year (Again)

Lina Khan Is Just Getting Started (She Hopes)

This Election Marks a New Low for Fiscal Fakery

Interest Rates Will Be Higher in the Future, Especially if Trump Is President

Kamala Harris Win May Boost US Effort to Rein In ‘Junk Fees’ Levied on Consumers

Why Budgeting is Terrible Advice for Lower-Income People

The Endless Downfall of a Crypto Power Couple

Amazon Could Be Forced to Treat Drivers as Employees

Tesla’s ‘Dream Premium’ Faces Moment of Truth at Robotaxi Reveal

China Detains Four Taiwanese Employees at Apple’s ‘iPhone City’

Deutsche Telekom Looks to AI to Boost Revenue Growth, Trim Costs

Brookfield Outbids Segro With $728 Million Deal to Buy Tritax EuroBox

Delta’s Guidance Misses Estimates After Summer Upheaval

Unilever Sells Russian Business

7-Eleven Owner Plans Revamp of Noncore Businesses Amid Buyout Interest From Couche-Tard

Uniqlo Owner Posts Record Annual Earnings

Givaudan Reaffirms 2025 Targets After Sales Growth

While N.B.A. Plays in Abu Dhabi, Critics Cry ‘Sportswashing’

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Morning News: October 9, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on October 9th, 2024 at 7:07 am

Chinese Stocks Tumble Most Since 2020 on Stimulus Skepticism

China Has Only Begun Its Long Road Toward Economic Revival

How a Series of Blunders Ruined a Latin American Socialist Success Story

Renewables Growth Set to Surge by 2030 But Falls Short of U.N. Climate Goal, IEA Says

Why the Market Shrugs Off the Mother of All Oil Shocks

Rio Tinto to Acquire Arcadium Lithium for $6.7 Billion

Reinsurers Prepare For a Historic Loss

Michigan State Channels Warren Buffett to Beat Ivy League Funds

Wall Street Salaries Decline Further From Pandemic Heights

Wall Street Bonuses Projected to Rise More than 7% in 2024, NY Comptroller Says

‘I’m Not Going to Wait’: Young Chinese Jump Into Stock Frenzy

Why Robinhood Is Seeking Merry Traders Overseas

Should You Refinance Your Mortgage Now as Rates Drop?

Amazon’s Costly Space Race Is Grounding Profit Margin Hopes

US Weighs Google Breakup in Historic Big Tech Antitrust Case

How to Say No to Our A.I. Overlords

US Debates Who Should Be Able to Buy American AI Chips

OpenAI Says China-Linked Group Tried to Phish Its Employees

Some of the Web’s Sketchiest Sites Share an Address in Iceland

Boeing Withdraws Contract Offer as Union Talks Break Down

Healthcare Premiums Are Soaring Even as Inflation Eases, in Charts

Nobel Prize in Chemistry Goes to 3 Scientists for Predicting and Creating Proteins

How Shame, Blame and the Internet Eroded Trust in Science

Abortion Rights Get New, Wealthy Backer in Melinda French Gates

Boehringer Open to Deals While ‘Laser-Focused’ on Obesity Drug

Disneyland Raises Prices by About 6% for Most Popular Days

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CWS Market Review – October 8, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on October 8th, 2024 at 5:32 pm

(This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

The Economy Created 254,000 Jobs Last Month

Last Monday, the stock market closed out the quarter and month at an all-time high. Through September, this year’s market is on pace for being the strongest market in a presidential election year since 1928.

This has happened despite numerous reasons for investors to be scared. Nevertheless, the stock market keeps on climbing.

There’s an important lesson for investors in this. The long-term trend is very much in your favor. To be a good investor means you simply have to wait out bad times.

Wall Street then got a big shock on Friday when the Labor Department reported that the U.S. economy created 254,000 net new jobs last month. That was well above expectations for a gain of 150,000 new jobs. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1%.

I looked at the decimals, and the unemployment rate was technically 4.051%. In other words, the jobless rate came very close to rounding down to 4.0%.

The unemployment rate is lower today than it was in every single month from February 1970 to November 1999. (To be transparent, they have changed the methodology on that data several times.)

Wall Street liked the news. On Friday, the stock market rallied close to 1%. The market was up another 1% today.

Many of the details in the report are quite good. For example, the labor force participation rate for prime working-age adults is near a multi-decade high.

The jobs gain data for August were revised higher to 159,000. July’s number was increased by 55,000 to a monthly gain of 144,000.

I was very happy to see that average hourly earnings increased by 0.4%. That was 0.1% ahead of expectations. Over the last year, average hourly earnings are up by 4% which is ahead of inflation, but not by much. Still, it’s good to see that workers are finally getting a raise. One concern is that the average workweek fell by 0.1 hours to 34.2 hours.

Here are some details:

Restaurants and bars led job creation for the month, with the hospitality industry adding 69,000 positions in September after averaging just 14,000 over the previous 12 months.

Health care, a consistent leader in job growth, contributed 45,000, while government grew by 31,000. Other gainers included social assistance (27,000) and construction (25,000).

A more encompassing measure of unemployment that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons dropped to 7.7%. The share of the workforce either working or looking for work, known as the labor force participation rate, held steady at 62.7%.

One interesting detail in Friday’s report is that many full-time positions were created last month. The number of part-time jobs decreased by 95,000 while fulltime employment increased by 414,000.

Where does this leave the Federal Reserve? That’s a good question. The Fed has made it clear that it wanted to lower rates before the economy skidded off the road and plowed into a ditch. Now it appears that the economy is doing well. Or at least, well enough. So are all these cuts needed?

The answer is probably yes. The Fed meets again early next month, just after the election. The futures market thinks the Fed will go ahead with another 0.25% rate cut, and that’s probably right. Some think the Fed will hit us with another 0.5% but I’m a doubter.

As I’ve said before, the best way to view these rate cuts is as the Fed undoing its aggressive rate hikes from 2022 to 2023.

However, the big news before the Fed meeting will be this Thursday’s CPI report. The last few CPI reports have shown benign inflation, but that was with weaker jobs growth.

For September, Wall Street expects inflation of 0.1% and core inflation of 0.2%. If that’s right, it means that both core and headline inflation are slowly moving to the Fed’s target of 2%.

Some people have suggested that the good jobs numbers will alter the Fed’s course. I think it’s too early to say. Remember the basic formula: lower rates are good for value and higher rates are good for growth stocks. Interestingly, growth stocks have done well over the last few days so there’s been some impact on the mind of the market.

Yesterday, the yield on the 10-year Treasury broke above 4%. This got a lot of attention, and it’s an important psychological level, but the yield is lower than it was during much of this summer.

The overall outlook is that rates are headed lower. The only question now is about speed. The futures market expects the Fed to cut by 0.25% at its December meeting as well. For 2025, traders think the Fed will cut rates by 1%. If inflation continues to fade away, that could be the correct policy.

Tomorrow, the Fed will release the minutes from its last meeting. These are usually pretty dull affairs, but this time could be an exception. For one, the Fed decided to cut rates by 0.5%. Also, there was one dissenting vote. The Fed has made it clear that rates are going down.

Stock Focus: Public Storage

As I’ve said, when rates are headed down, you want to make sure you have some high-yielding stocks in your portfolio. These means sectors like utilities and REITs which brings me to one of my favorite REITs.

Let’s say your boss offers you a big raise and a promotion, but the catch is that the job requires you to move out of the country. You love to see the world, so you jump at the chance.

But there’s one nagging question: what do you do with all your stuff?

Nowadays, there’s an easy answer. You rent a storage unit. There are lots of these facilities all over the country. If you look long enough, you’re bound to come across Public Storage (PSA).

Public Storage is the largest self-storage real estate investment trust (REIT) in the United States. There are currently more than 3,000 Public Storage locations around the world. The company is based in Glendale, CA.

If you’re not familiar with a REIT, it’s basically the landlord of some real estate. If the REIT pays out almost all of its income to shareholders, then it gets preferential tax treatment. As a result, REITs often have good dividend yields. It’s a great way to invest in real estate.

Public Storage was founded in 1972 by B. Wayne Hughes and Kenneth Volk Jr. During a trip to Texas, Hughes saw that local real estate developers had made, in effect, mini storage units, so he decided to bring the idea to Southern California. It was a brilliant idea because he could charge as much as apartments in term of price per square foot. The difference is that the upkeep costs were far less.

The business quickly took off and by 1989, it had grown to 1,000 locations. PSA officially became a REIT in 1995. Today it has a market cap of $61 billion, and PSA is one of the largest REITs around.

More than 90% of PSA’s revenue comes from its self-storage business. The company does a lot more than just provide the space. They also provide a broad range of services for their clients. PSA offers insurance and packing products. The company also has a subsidiary that provides boxes and truck rentals.

It’s an interesting business because the storage lots tend to be located in unforgiving parts of large cities. They’re often located in dense clusters near freeways and intersections. It’s also interesting that PSA has relatively few employees. The lots are automated so customers can access their units at any time.

As any fan of the TV show Storage Wars knows, abandoned units are auctioned off. (Despite what you may have heard, most abandoned or unpaid lots contain useless junk.)

PSA has been a tremendous business over the years.

Thirty years ago, you could have picked up one share of PSA for $7. Since then, the stock has increased by 50-fold. And that doesn’t include dividends. If you include dividends, then PSA gained over 500-fold. All from renting storage units.

I really like PSA’s dividend. The company currently pays out a quarterly dividend of $3 per share, or $12 for the year. Think of it this way: If you had bought PSA 20 years ago, you’d now be yielding over 20% based on your original purchase price.

I also like that PSA is the dominant player in the industry. The company buys up smaller companies all the time. There hasn’t been much self-storage building recently. That means there’s been a scramble to buy out smaller storage companies. There are lots of small operators and they’re happy to sell to PSA.

Public Storage currently yields 3.5% which isn’t that far below the current 10-year Treasury’s yield. The next earnings report is due out in three or four weeks.

That’s all for now. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

– Eddy

Morning News: October 8, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on October 8th, 2024 at 7:06 am

UK Sanctions Russian Troops for Chemical Weapons Use in Ukraine

Fears of a Global Oil Shock if the Mideast Crisis Intensifies

Energy Transition Must Morph From Tortoise to Hare as 2030 Nears

Centeno Warns Against Big ECB Moves, Calls for ‘Gradualism’

Mexico Wants to Curb Chinese Imports With Help From U.S. Companies

China’s Stock Euphoria Cools as Traders Reassess Stimulus Bets

What Really Happens on the Ground When the US Slaps Tariffs on China

Fed May Struggle to Rid Backstops of Stigma Amid New Push

10-Year Treasury Yields Shifts Lower After Crossing 4% in Previous Session

Price Controls Are a Bipartisan Delusion

Treasury Rout Stalls as Traders Look to CPI to Inform Fed Bets

Cryptoverse: Bored Bitcoin Seeks Direction After Big Bang

FTX Cleared to Repay Billions to Customers After Bankruptcy Plan Approval

Soaring Insurance Costs Are Menacing Owners of Big Buildings, Too

Swiss Bank Mirabaud Shuts Brokerage Unit Due to Poor Performance

Cyber Providers See Strong Demand, but Few Feel Confident Enough to List

Honeywell Plans to Spin Off Advanced Materials Business

Northvolt Subsidiary Files for Bankruptcy After Expansion Plan is Shelved

German Industry Rebounded in August on Car Production

Americans Are Using AI at Fairly High Rates. What Does This Mean for the Economy?

AI Startups in India Seek to Upend English-Language Learning

Anything in 10 Minutes: $5 Billion Delivery App Sweeps Latin America

Kroger Adds Disney Streaming as New Perk for Grocery Delivery Program

PepsiCo Trims Sales Outlook as Consumers Remain Squeezed

Where ‘60 Minutes’ and ‘Call Her Daddy’ Fit Into Kamala Harris’s Unorthodox Media Strategy

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Morning News: October 7, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on October 7th, 2024 at 7:04 am

EU’s New Tariffs on Chinese Cars Turn Words Into Action

Goldman Says Surging Chinese Stocks May Advance Another 20%

Two Jumbo Cuts Were Too Much to Hope For

Bond Traders Buckle Up for ‘No Landing’ After Jobs Surprise

How to Think About the Surprising US Jobs Data

Trump’s Plans Could Increase U.S. Debt While Raising Costs for Most Americans

‘100%’ Yields Are Fueling a Retail Boom in New Quick-Buck ETFs

Costco’s Gold Bars Fly Off Shelves as Bullion Prices Smash Records

How to Win the Unfinished Fight Against Cost-of-Living Shocks

The Tech Lobbying Group Helping to Broaden the First Amendment’s Reach

How E-Commerce Is Making China’s Deflation Worse

Amazon RTO Edict Reflects Fear New Hires Don’t Know Company Culture

Want to Kill Grunt Work With AI? Careful What You Wish For

Apollo Global to Take Barnes Group Private in $3.6 Billion Deal

Workday Billionaire ‘Bored Silly’ of Retirement Chases a Third IPO

American Scientists Get Medicine Nobel for Finding MicroRNA

Activist Starboard Value Takes $1 Billion Stake in Pfizer

Astra Looks to Future of Cholesterol Drugs With $2 Billion Deal

How Cannabis and Opium Poppies Became National Security Issues

Chevron to Sell Oil Sands, Shale Assets for $6.5 Billion to Canadian Natural

Shell Expects Higher LNG Output But Flags Continued Refining Weakness

Cement Is a Big Polluter. A Plant in Norway Hopes to Clean It Up.

Libyan Oil Output Climbs Above 1 Million Barrels a Day

Saudi Arabia Said to Tee Up Multibillion-Dollar Bet on Hydrogen

From Cleveland to Chicago, NFL Teams Dream of Domed Stadiums

How Everyone Got Lost in Netflix’s Endless Library

Nutter Butter, Are You Good? An Investigation.

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Morning News: October 4, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on October 4th, 2024 at 7:03 am

Is China Repeating Its 2014-15 Boom-Bust Cycle?

Japan PM Instructs Ministers to Compile Comprehensive Economic Package

A Big Russia Bet Is Minting Fortunes on Paper for Retail Investors

EU to Impose Tariffs Up to 45% on Chinese Electric Vehicles

Germany, France and Italy Urge the EU to Ease Banking Regulation

Trump-Proofing Europe Looks Impossible

Jobs and Oil Prices Are Keeping Markets on Edge

These Are Boom Times for ‘Degrowth’

US Money-Market Funds Hit All-Time High of $6.46 Trillion

Goldman Sachs Prodigy Finds It Hard to Crack the Hedge Fund Elite

Zuckerberg Passes Bezos to Become World’s Second-Richest Person

US Jobs Report Is Expected to Show Stable Growth in September

US Dockworkers Go Back to Work as Talks Extended to January

Pandemic Start-Ups Are Thriving, and Helping to Fuel the Economy

Retailers Have No Room for Error This Holiday

Britain Backs Plan to Store Carbon Dioxide Under the Sea

Southeast US Utilities Take Lessons From Houston to Temper Helene Backlash

‘Clean Steel’ Can Revive America’s Dying Rust Belt

Can a ‘Precision Scheduling’ Expert Fix Berkshire Hathaway’s Railroad?

Rivian Falls After Cutting EV Production Target on Supply Crunch

What Do US Vehicle Regulators Have Against Tiny Cars?

OpenAI’s Altman Concentrates Power on Path to $157 Billion Valuation

The Health Tech Boss Putting AI in Every Single Product

Hospitals Hit With IV Fluid Shortage After Hurricane Helene

CVS Is Under Pressure and Considering a Break Up. Here’s Why that Could Be Risky

Can a Neon Blue Gummy Worm Cocktail Save the Movies?

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Morning News: October 3, 2024
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on October 3rd, 2024 at 7:09 am

Russian Court Freezes Funds of US Banks JP Morgan and Mellon

US Chips Guided Russian Missile That Killed 6-Year-Old Girl

Key Japan Ministers Show United Front With BOJ Amid Jitters

Buffett May Target Japan Bank and Insurance Shares, Analysts Say

World Braces for Bigger Trade Wars if Trump Wins

Is Biden’s Economy Overstimulated? Not Compared With Trump’s

Bill Dudley: How My Hard Economic Landing Forecast Went Wrong

Markets Need an October Surprise to Break Deadlock

Wall Street Races to Bring Private Credit to the Masses

Amundi Turns Bullish on Swiss Franc in Bet on Safe-Haven Appeal

Money-Market Funds Stay in Vogue Even as Reforms Go Into Effect

Banks Set to Use Swift for Token Transactions Starting in 2025

SEC Enforcement Director Who Pushed for Big Fines Steps Down

Warren Buffett Sells $338 Million of BofA Stock as Spree Slows

U.K. Home Sales Soar as Mortgage Rates Ease

US Office Market Shows Signs of Bottoming After Big Discount Sales

To Revive Manufacturing, How Much Can a President Do?

The Future of EV Charging Looks a Lot Like an Airport Lounge

Africa Oil Producers Raise Almost Half of the Seed Capital Needed for $5 Billion Energy Bank

Starbucks Buys Research Farms as Climate Change Threatens Coffee Supply

Navellier: What the Longshoremen’s Strike Is Really About – and Why It Matters

Striking Dockworkers Are Top Earners—When They Work

In Japan’s Countryside, Century-Old Firms Learn to Embrace Foreign Workers

Schools Make Millions Offering Degrees That Double as Work Visas

Japan’s Richest Person Donates $31 Million to UCLA Program

KLM Targets Savings, Explores Asset Sales to Counter High Costs

Beyoncé Released a Song and Levi’s Saw Its Moment

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