Paddy Hirsch Explains HFT
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on April 1st, 2014 at 2:02 pm

The S&P 500 Total Return Index
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on April 1st, 2014 at 10:58 am

Here’s a look at the S&P 500 Total Return Index since 1988. From the March 2009 low, the index has returned 208%.

S&P 500 Hits All-Time High
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on April 1st, 2014 at 10:45 am

The S&P 500 broke out to an all-time intra-day high today. The index has been as high as 1,884.60 this morning. The previous high was on March 21 at 1,883.97.

Ford’s Sales Rise in March
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on April 1st, 2014 at 9:58 am

Although the economy was hurt by some severe weather this spring, Ford seems to be bouncing back. The automaker reported that March sales rose by 3.3%.

Ford deliveries rose 3.3 percent to 243,417 cars and light trucks. Ford’s F-Series pickups gained 5.1 percent to 70,940, while Fusion sales rose 8.8 percent to 32,963, the Dearborn, Michigan-based automaker said in a statement. The second-largest U.S. automaker topped the average of nine analysts who projected a gain of 1.1 percent.

The stock broke above $16 per share this monring.

Morning News: April 1, 2014
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on April 1st, 2014 at 6:33 am

Draghi Europe Scenario Points to Lowflation Still Painful

Europe Goes From M&A Laggard to Leader as Crisis Mode Subsides

UK Manufacturing Growth Cools in March – PMI

Japan Ends Half-Century Ban on Weapons Exports

India to Widen Scope for Currency Hedging by Foreign Investors

One More Time, Watch What Yellen Says

Congress Passes Bill Averting Medicare Pay Cut For Doctors

Fault Runs Deep in Ultrafast Trading

GM’sj Barra Apologizes to Families in Testimony

GM’s Recall Woes Worsen as CEO Prepares for House Hearing

Caterpillar Set to Defend Its Tax Bill

BlackBerry v. Typo: Why Worry Over The ‘Dead’ Keyboard?

FCC Tightens Rule on TV Ad Sale Alliances

Cullen Roche: Thoughts on Thomas Piketty’s “Capital”

John Hempton: Charlotte: An Old Meeting With Bank of America

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The First Quarter Is On the Books
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on March 31st, 2014 at 4:22 pm

The S&P 500 rose 1.30% for the first three months of 2014, and our Buy List gained 2.08%. Adjusted for dividends, the S&P 500 is up 1.81% for the quarter. Including dividends, our Buy List is up 2.42% for the year.

Fifty Years Ago Volatility Dried Up
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on March 31st, 2014 at 1:21 pm

We’re currently celebrating the 50th anniversary of the stock market’s historic low for volatility. It’s almost difficult to describe how little stock prices changed each day half a century ago.

From the aftermath of the Kennedy Assassination to mid-1965, the stock market reached its happy calm state. Between December 1, 1963 and June 29, 1965, the biggest daily gain came on May 1, 1964 when the S&P 500 gained just 0.89%. Nowadays, that’s a fairly average move for one day. It’s hard to imagine it was the biggest move for over a year and a half. From December 1, 1963 to June 14, 1965, the biggest daily loss was a 1.25% drop after the Gulf of Tonkin incident.

But if we break down that low volatility period further, the really low part of the low came in early 1964, exactly 50 years ago. For the entire months of February and March, the S&P 500 didn’t have a single daily move, plus or minus, of more than 0.5%. That’s the longest-such stretch in history—43 trading days in a row. The streak was finally broken by an advance of 0.58% on April 2, 1964.

We haven’t even come close to that record. There hasn’t been a 10-day run in 18 years. In late 2002, there was a 37-day run where we always rose or fell by more than 0.5%.

Here’s the S&P 500’s performance over an eight-day period in February 1964:

February 13: -0.06%
February 14: -0.05%
February 17: -0.03%
February 18: +0.01%
February 19: +0.10%
February 20: +0.09%
February 24: +0.08%
February 25: 0.00%

Here are the daily changes for the first quarter of this year:

Here are the daily changes for the first quarter of 1964, but I used the same scale as above.

I’d also say that current volatility isn’t that high. We’ve only had a few 1.5% or more days in the last year.

Fifth Straight Quarterly Gain
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on March 31st, 2014 at 12:23 pm

Today is the last day of the first quarter. The S&P 500 looks very likely to close up about 1.3% for the quarter. This will be the fifth quarter in a row of gains.

In the last ten quarters, the biggest quarterly loss was 3.3%. (Note that the last data point in the chart above was based on the noon value for the S&P 500.)

Morning News: March 31, 2014
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on March 31st, 2014 at 6:34 am

Draghi Sifts Data on Slack as Inflation Cements Low-Rate Vow

Swiss Competition Body Opens Probe into Possible Forex Manipulation

Germany Best of European Union With BMWs of Reunification

Abe Bets He Can Break Japan Sales Tax Jinx With April 1 Rise

Mitsubishi Motors Buys Ford’s Philippines Auto Plant

Spot Gold in a Rut Ahead of US Policy Clues

Chinese Telecommunications Equipment Giant Huawei Vows Security After Alleged US Hacks

Alibaba to Pay $692 Million for 35% Stake in Intime Retail

Apple’s War on Samsung Has Google in Crossfire

Delphi Told Panel GM Approved Ignition Switches Below Specifications

Robots Scamming the Little Investors

Raiders-Turned-Activists Prove Boon for Stocks Beating S&P 500

’This American Life’ Considers Self-Distribution on Radio

Credit Writedowns: Eurozone Credit Contraction Continues

Joshua Brown: “The Stock Market is Rigged!”

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60 Minutes: “Is the U.S. Stock Market Rigged?”
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on March 30th, 2014 at 8:13 pm