The Dow Is Just 6% from a 10,000-Point Rally
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on July 22nd, 2013 at 9:27 am

I’m back in the office after a nice, relaxing week off. The stock market continued to rally while I was away, and the S&P 500 currently isn’t far from 1,700.

There’s going to be a lot more earnings news this week. So far, the overall earnings report has been pretty good although there have been some high-profile blunders. Microsoft ($MSFT), of course, is one. The stock got shellacked for an 11.4% loss on Friday. Fortunately, the other 19 stocks on our Buy List had outperformed the broader market on Friday. This is why I stress holding a diversified portfolio. You never know when one of your stocks will cause problems in the short term.

The Dow needs just another 6% for this to become a 10,000-point rally. We also crossed an interesting milestone last week. The S&P 500 now has $100 in earnings over the trailing 12 months. At the 1982 low, the whole index was going for $102. The S&P 500 first closed above $100 in in June 1968.

According to the latest numbers from S&P, the index is on track to earn $26.54 for Q2. That’s growth of just over 4% from last year’s Q2, but I think this will gradually be revised higher as earnings season grinds on. Wall Street currently expects the S&P 500 to earn about $109 this year and $123 next year. Again, the stock market is still reasonably valued going by most valuation metrics, and—this is a big “and”—assuming the future earnings projections are accurate. The S&P 500 raked in $97 last year. The earnings slowdown was very real but it seems to have ended last year. The only quarters with negative earnings growth were the third and fourth quarters of 2012.

One positive story for our Buy List is that Goldman has shifted Cognizant ($CTSH) from “neutral” to “buy.” I’m not exactly a fan of these upgrades and downgrades, but it’s nice to see that someone else agrees with you.

Morning News: July 22, 2013
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on July 22nd, 2013 at 6:33 am

Global Shares Eye Five-Year High After Abe Win, Yen Choppy

China’s Rate Reform May Serve To Shield Indebted State Firms

GSK Says Senior China Staff May Have Breached Law

Chinese Police Visit Astrazeneca, Question One Employee

Germany, Estonia Only Euro Zone Countries Cutting Debt In First Quarter

As WTI And Brent Reunite, Gulf Of Mexico Faces Squeeze, Not Glut

Gold Rush Trash Is Information Age Treasure

UBS Reports Higher Profit, U.S. Mortgage Bond Settlement

Philips Profit Jumps as Health-Care Orders Recover in the U.S.

Dell, Silver Lake Said to Disagree on Breakup Fee If LBO Fails

High-End Smartphone Boom Ending as Price Drop Hits Apple

For a Developing World, A Streamlined Facebook

A Bizarre Goldman Sachs Aluminum Moving Scheme Has Allegedly Cost US Consumers $5 Billion In The Past 3 Years

Howard Lindzon: In Awe of the Mobil Global Warming Boom

Jeff Miller: Weighing the Week Ahead: It’s All About Earnings

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CWS Market Review – July 19, 2013
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on July 19th, 2013 at 8:29 am

“He who wishes to be rich in a day will be hanged in a year.” – Leonardo da Vinci

I’m currently enjoying a very relaxing week at Sebago Lake in Maine, but I have enough time to bring you up to speed on this week’s news on Wall Street. Of course, the big news is that earnings season marches on. It’s still early, but so far, 75% of the earnings reports for companies in the S&P 500 have topped estimates. That’s a very good “beat rate,” and it’s helped to power the market’s rally this week.

On Thursday, the S&P 500 broke out to an all-time intra-day high. It took us nearly two months to take out the old high. At one point on Thursday, the S&P 500 touched 1,693.12, which is a remarkable gain of 154% from the intra-day mega-low reached 52 months ago. Simply put, this has been one of the greatest bull markets in Wall Street history. More than 80% of the stocks in the S&P 500 are currently trading above their 50-day moving averages. What’s remarkable is that we’re hardly overvalued, according to most traditional valuation metrics.

As strong as the broader market has been, I’m also proud to report that our Buy List continues to do very well. Stocks like CR Bard, AFLAC, Harris Corp., Stryker and Fiserv all hit new 52-week highs on Thursday. Our Buy List is now up more than 22% for the year, and we had more good earnings news recently. In this week’s CWS Market Review, I’ll discuss the strong earnings reports we’ve had from our big bank stocks. I’ll also cover recent so-so earnings from Microsoft ($MSFT) and Stryker ($SYK). Plus, we have a bunch more earnings coming next week.

Strong Earnings Lift Our Banks to Multi-Year Highs

Right after I sent out last week’s CWS Market Review, JPMorgan Chase ($JPM) and Wells Fargo ($WFC) reported very strong earnings for Q2. JPM saw its earnings jump 31% from a year ago. Looking at the bottom line, the bank earned $1.60 per share for the quarter, which was 16 cents better than Wall Street’s consensus. After the earnings report, there was some predictable bellyaching that the strong results were largely due to lower loan-loss reserves. Please. When I hear people say that, I’m not sure they know how banking works. The truth is that JPM is doing very well right now.

Interestingly, the big wigs at JPM warned that higher mortgage rates are putting pressure on their margins. That’s not so surprising. The bank is currently working to cut many thousands of jobs in their community banking division. While these moves are painful and unpleasant, I think they’re ultimately needed. JPM’s CFO said that refi volume could fall as much as 40% if rates continue to rise.

Overall, I thought the earnings report was quite good, but the market seemed to have a slightly delayed reaction. Not until Thursday did the shares gap up to a 12-year high. Even after this year’s 28% rally, JPM is still going for less than 10 times this year’s earnings estimate. I like this stock a lot. I’m raising my Buy Below on JPMorgan Chase to $60 per share.

Also on Friday, Wells Fargo ($WFC) reported a 19% jump in Q2 earnings. For the quarter, WFC netted 98 cents per share, which was five cents more than the Street was expecting. That’s a big jump from the 82 cents per share Wells earned in last year’s Q2. Just like JPM, Wells said it expects to see a decline in its mortgage division. They’re planning on cutting jobs, as revenue growth was basically flat. Both banks made the right call by going into mortgages in a big way. Wealth management is one of the few areas where Wells is seeing some revenue growth. On Thursday, WFC finished the day at its highest close ever. These banks are very strong. This week, I’m raising my Buy Below on Wells Fargo to $48 per share.

Microsoft and Stryker Miss Earnings, but Don’t Worry

After the closing bell on Thursday, Microsoft ($MSFT) reported earnings of 66 cents per share, which was nine cents shy of estimates. The stock dropped more than 6% in the after-hours market.

The problem for the software giant is that PC sales are slowing, and that hurts their Windows business. This was a disappointing report, but what surprised a lot of people is that the company took a $900-million charge for its large inventory of unsold Surface tablets. This is the version of the tablet which runs on chips designed by ARM Holdings. The Surface has mostly been a flop. Last week, MSFT said it’s cutting prices to get more buyers, but that looks to be an uphill battle.

Microsoft knows it has a lot of work to do, and that was part of their big reorganization announcement. The tech giant had top-line growth of 10%, which was also below expectations. This was an ugly earnings report, but our investment thesis continues to hold—Microsoft’s price is lower than its value. I’m disappointed by these results, but I’m not ready to ditch the stock just yet. Microsoft remains a value buy up to $38 per share.

Stryker ($SYK) had some mixed earnings news. After the closing bell on Thursday, the orthopedic company reported second-quarter earnings of $1 per share, which was three cents below consensus. The good news was that revenues rose 5% to $2.21 billion, which was slightly better than consensus. Stryker also lowered its full-year guidance from $4.25 to $4.40 per share to a range of $4.20 to $4.26 per share. Frankly, that’s less than I had been expecting, but not much less. The company said that it’s getting squeezed by currency exchange rates, which is the kind of transient problem that doesn’t concern me so much. They lost four cents per share last quarter due to forex. Stryker also said that revenue growth for the year should range between 4% and 5.5%, which is slightly better than consensus. Stryker continues to be a very good buy up to $71 per share.

We Have Four Buy List Earnings Reports Next Week

The earnings parade continues. Four of our Buy List stocks are due to report next week. Please note that the earnings dates I’m listing here are tentative and may be off by a day or two. I’ll continue to have the latest earnings info at the blog. On Tuesday, CR Bard ($BCR), CA Technologies ($CA) and Ford Motor ($F) are due to report earnings. All three stocks have been doing very well for us lately. Ford has been especially strong; the shares got as high as $17.25 per share this week. Then on Friday, July 26, Moog ($MOG-A) will report its fiscal Q3 earnings.

Wall Street currently expects Q2 earnings of $1.38 per share from CR Bard ($BCR). Three months ago, the company told us that earnings would range between $1.35 and $1.39 per share. At the time, that was a disappointment, since the Street had been expecting $1.46 per share. To be fair, Bard had already said that 2013 will be a tough year for them, but they expect to make up the slack in 2014. Last month, Bard raised its dividend by 5%. Traders still like BCR a lot; the stock has rallied 14% since the beginning of May. My advice to investors is, don’t chase Bard. The stock remains a good buy up to $115 per share.

On Monday, CA Technologies ($CA) finally hit $30 per share. The stock is now a 35% winner on the year for us. Three months ago, the company had a blow-out earnings report. CA beat Wall Street’s consensus by more than 23%. I’m not expecting such a strong repeat. This time, Wall Street expects earnings of 71 cents per share. CA is a very good buy up to $31 per share.

Of all the companies reporting next week, I’m the most optimistic about Ford Motor ($F). In April, the automaker earned 41 cents per share, which was four cents more than consensus. This time around, Wall Street again expects 37 cents per share. I think Ford will easily beat that. Once Europe gets back on its feet, Ford will really prosper. Ford is an outstanding buy up to $18 per share.

Finally, Moog ($MOG-A) is due to report earnings next Friday. This stock has quietly become our best performer in 2013, with a 40.4% YTD gain. Moog expects full-year earnings of $3.55 to $3.65 per share, but will be dinged 15 cents per share in restructuring costs. For now, I want to keep a tight leash on the stock. Moog is a good buy up to $57 per share.

That’s all for now. More earnings reports are due next week, including four Buy List stocks. We’ll also get an important economic report on orders for durable goods. We’ll also get reports on new home sales and existing home sales. It will be interesting to see what the impact has been of higher mortgage rates on the housing sector. Be sure to keep checking the blog for daily updates. I’ll have more market analysis for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review!

– Eddy

Morning News: July 19, 2013
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on July 19th, 2013 at 5:15 am

G-20 to Back Corporate Tax Reform

Lew Cites U.S. Economy in Call for Europe to Spur Growth

RBI Steps Not To Result In High Interest Rate

China’s Feud With West on Solar Leads to Tax

Big Banks, Flooded in Profits, Fear Flurry of New Safeguards

Detroit Bankruptcy Could Hit Millions Of Retirees

Morgan Stanley Jumps as Earnings Beat Analysts’ Estimates

Google Results Show Struggle With Mobile

Men’s Wearhouse Buying Joseph Abboud Brand for $97.5 Million

American Airlines Posts $220 Million Q2 Profit

eBay’s Profit Jumps 13%, But Weak Guidance Sparks Massive Sell Off

Revenue Falls, but Profit Tops Forecast at I.B.M.

Vodafone Expects to Complete Kabel Deal by Year-End

Bogle Says Social Security is Fixed Income

Jeff Miller: Beating Buy and Hold: Understanding Earnings

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Morning News: July 18, 2013
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on July 18th, 2013 at 6:46 am

UnitedHealth Second-Quarter Profit Rises Beyond Expectations

U.S. Seen Losing to China as World Leader

Panama Charges North Korea Weapons Ship’s Crew

Bernanke Says Fed May Delay QE Taper If Economy Misses Forecasts

Challenges in Bid to Revamp Banks

The New York Times Tries — And Fails — To Protect Obamacare From Health Insurance ‘Rate Shock’

IBM Boosts Annual Forecast After Earnings Beat Analyst Estimates

Intel Cuts 2013 Revenue Forecast, Capex As PC Industry Sags

eBay Inc. Reports Strong Second Quarter 2013 Results

Bank Of America’s Second-Quarter Profit Jumps 63% On Cost Cuts

Taiwan’s TSMC Posts Record Profit, Revenue in Q2

Dell $24.4 Billion Buyout Plan Is a Nail-Biter as Vote Looms

Nokia Sales Miss Analysts’ Estimates as Handset Demand Wanes

Cullen Roche: Is a House Really a Good “Investment”?

Phil Pearlman: At the NYMEX with Jeff Grossman Talking Crude, NG & RBOB

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Morning News: July 17, 2013
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on July 17th, 2013 at 6:47 am

Carney Unites BOE on QE as Rate Guidance Review Looms

Bank of England Surprise Hits Shares, Dollar Steady Ahead of Fed

Kazarian Emerges After 20 Years With Bid for 10% of Greek Debt

China Keeps On Gobbling Up Treasurys

Treasurys Fall on Stronger Inflation Data

Regulatory Rumpus: The Battle Over Reinstating Glass-Steagall

Freddie Mac Said to Plan $400 Million Sale of Risk-Sharing Debt

Bad Weather Complicates Coca-Cola’s Soda Struggles

Yahoo! May Be Rewarded for its Gluttony

Worried About Defeat for Dell Offer, Board and Bidders Prepare Maneuvers

Barclays, Traders Fined $487.9 Million by U.S. Regulator

Tesla CEO Musk Morphs From Tony Stark to Henry Ford

McDonald’s Can’t Figure Out How Its Workers Survive on Minimum Wage

Credit Writedowns: Why the U.S. and European Auto Sectors Continue to Diverge

Joshua Brown: 361 Capital Weekly Research Briefing

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Morning News: July 16, 2013
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on July 16th, 2013 at 6:35 am

Greece Hit By General Strike to Protest Austerity

Europe Car Sales Slump as German Sentiment Wanes

North Korean Ship With ‘Military Cargo’ Held By Panama

Brokerages See Downside Risks to India’s GDP Growth Forecast

US ‘Jumbo’ Loan Rates as Cheap as Standard Mortgages

Gold Swings as Investors Wait for Bernanke’s Testimony

Dollar Bulls Waver as Fed’s Signals Whipsaw Traders

Baidu to Buy Mobile App Store for $1.9 Billion

Citigroup Has an Emerging Markets Headache

Bullish Leap Options Set to Gain $4.6 Million With Buyout Bid

Ad Networks Agree New Anti-Piracy Guidelines

With i3 Electric Car, BMW Tries to Ease Range Anxiety

Glaxo 20% China Sales Growth in Focus as Police Allege Bribes

Jeff Carter: The Rise of the Naked Economy

Roger Nusbaum: Don’t Just Do Something, Stand There

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At the Lake….
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on July 15th, 2013 at 9:25 am

I’m on vacation this week, relaxing at Sebago Lake in Maine. It’s beautiful up here, and the people are very friendly.

I’ll continue to post this week, but not as often. Just to follow up from Friday, we had good earnings reports from Wells Fargo ($WFC) and JPMorgan Chase ($JPM). Wells came within three pennies of a new 52-week high, which it had set on Tuesday. Analysts seem very pleased with the earnings reports from both.

Hulu decided to call off its auction of itself, of which DirecTV had been in the running. I’m rather skeptical of how serious DTV was, but now that it’s off the table, I think it’s good news for DTV.

This morning, the retail sales report for June came in a little below expectations. Wall Street was expecting a 0.8% increase while the actual number was 0.4%.

The figures show consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the economy, may take time to accelerate as Americans stay frugal and rebuild savings. At the same time, cheaper borrowing costs, household wealth backed by home and stock prices and an improving job market are helping sustain demand for big-ticket items such as motor vehicles.

“The consumer was less engaged in the second quarter,” said Russell Price, senior economist at Ameriprise Financial Inc. in Detroit. Price is the second-best forecaster of retail sales over the past two years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. “The numbers are disappointing in comparison to expectations but the overall picture is still encouraging” given job growth and improved household balance sheets, he said.

The futures currently indicate the market will open higher this morning.

Morning News: July 15, 2013
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on July 15th, 2013 at 6:43 am

Greeks Wait Tables and Hope for Economic Dawn

Here Comes the Hardest Challenge Yet for Abenomics

China Growth Slows to 7.5% as 2013 Target Under Threat

N.S.A. Leaks Stir Plans in Russia to Control Net

Gold Extends Best Week Since 2011 as Stimulus Seen Sustained

China Releases Details of Glaxo Bribery Allegations

After Goldman and Before Trial, a Global Education for Fabrice Tourre

AT&T’s Leap Purchase Puts Pressure on Smaller Rivals to Pair Up

Hulu’s Owners Call Off Auction, Plan to Invest $750 Million

Loblaw to Buy Shoppers Drug Mart for $11.9 Billion

Stella International Takes on LVMH to Expand in Paris

How One Year of Marissa Mayer Has Changed Yahoo

The All-Time High Stock Market Is About To Get Served A Potent Cocktail Of Economic Data And Fedspeak

Pragmatic Capitalism: JP Morgan: Don’t Confuse Dovish Comments with “Tapering”

Jeff Miller: Weighing the Week Ahead: Have Stock Investors Dodged the (Correction) Bullet?

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JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo Beat Estimates
Posted by Eddy Elfenbein on July 12th, 2013 at 12:42 pm

This morning JPMorgan Chase ($JPM) announced a 31% increase in Q2 earnings. Analysts expected $5.47 billion or $1.44 per share on revenue of $24.84 billion. Yet JPM surpassed that with earnings of $6.5 billion or $1.60 per share and revenue of $25 billion, compared with $22 billion in the period a year earlier. The stock spiked on the news and is now up slightly in mid-day trading.

Wells Fargo ($WFC) also announced strong earnings this morning. WFC reported a 19% profit increase for Q2, which reflected the 14th-straight quarterly profit increase and the ninth-straight record report. Net income was $5.5 billion or 98 cents per share compared to $4.6 billion or 82 cents per share for the Q2 one year ago. Analysts had been expecting 93 cents per share. Revenue was roughly flat at $21.4 billion and this also exceeded expectations. The stock is up 1.8% in mid-day trading.