Archive for 2013

• Q3 GDP Growth = 2.8%
  Eddy Elfenbein, November 7th, 2013 at 10:42 am

  The government reported that the economy grew by 2.8% in the third quarter. That was better than expectations of 2%. Unfortunately, much of the increase was driven by inventory restocking.

  While this was the third quarter in a row of rising growth, it was also the 20th time in the last 25 quarters that GDP growth failed to crack 3%. What makes this interesting is that 3% growth was about the average growth rate for 40 years for the U.S. economy.

  Below is a chart I made and I think it shows you just how poorly the economy has performed. I took real GDP and divided it by a 3% trendline. I used $4.2 trillion in Q1 of 1966 as my base.

  

  Whenever the blue line rises, that means the economy is growing faster than 3%. A falling line indicates slower than 3%. We tracked 3% pretty well for a long time. But lately, the economy has nose-dived. We’re currently at 92.3% of the trend.

  I don’t see us reverting to the mean. This may be the new normal.

• Morning News: November 7, 2013
  Eddy Elfenbein, November 7th, 2013 at 6:07 am

  Draghi Weighs Whether Rate Cuts Too Valuable as ECB Meets

  S&P Affirms India’s Rating at BBB-/A-3; Outlook Remains Negative

  Société Générale and Crédit Agricole Aim for Swap on Derivatives Venture

  Cautious Consumers Seen Curbing U.S. Economic Growth

  Revenue Growth Hopes Feather Twitter’s Nest

  Twitter IPO Price Indicates Asian Players Are Undervalued

  Square Exploring 2014 IPO With Banks

  ArcelorMittal Core Profit Better Than Expected at $1.71 Billion

  Lenovo Profit Up 36% As Smartphone Sales Grow

  Investors Slam The Brakes On Tesla, Time To Stay On The Shoulder?

  Tesla’s Valuation Drives Me Crazy

  Deutsche Telekom Sales Exceed Estimates on T-Mobile US

  Nestle Sheds Bulk of Jenny Craig in Effort to Slim Down

  An Offer From Amazon to Its Most Bitter Rivals

  Howard Lindzon: ‘Twas the Night Before Twitter…and ‘Drill Baby Drill’…Google, Facebook and Twitter as The New Exxon’s

  Cullen Roche: Shiller: Is Economics a Science?

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• Twitter Priced at $26 per Share
  Eddy Elfenbein, November 6th, 2013 at 9:56 pm

  Twitter ($TWTR) will start trading tomorrow. The company will debut on the NYSE under the symbol TWTR. The underwriters have announced a price of $26 per share. That values the company at $14.2 billion.

  Everyone on Wall Street has their fingers crossed on this one since the Facebook ($FB) IPO was a bit of a flop. Trading was delayed and the stock didn’t do well for several weeks. I suspect that FB wasn’t well advised by their bankers. Also, I think they got greedy. Twitter seems to be avoiding these mistakes.

  Twitter is selling 70 million shares to the public so it will raise $1.82 billion for the company. I strongly suspect that the price will pop once the shares hit the market.

  So is Twitter a good buy? The heck if I know.

  With investing, I rely on the fundamentals of a business. One of the limits of fundamental analysis is that it assumes the general stability of the business environment. With a company like Twitter, that environment is far from stable. I can make a pretty good guess as to what Harris will look like in three years. But with Twitter, I have no earthly idea.

  Twitter is currently losing money, and it will continue to do so. If things go well, they may turn a profit by 2015. Again, that’s if things go well. At $26 per share, twitter is being valued at 12.4 times next year’s estimated sales. Facebook currently trades at 11.6 times 2014 sales, and LinkedIn is at 12.2 times. That’s a rich valuation.

  Until I can see a consistent positive cash flow stream from Twitter, I’m staying far away from this stock. That’s not a moral judgement against the stock. I wish them well. But for my kind of investing, I never take risks I don’t have to.

• Maybe Mulally Is Going to Microsoft
  Eddy Elfenbein, November 6th, 2013 at 3:29 pm

  Microsoft ($MSFT) has been doing well lately and Ford ($F) hasn’t. Apparently, there’s an obvious connection: speculation that Ford CEO Alan Mulally will depart the automaker for the top spot at MSFT.

  I’ve been a doubter on that story, but it got a major boost today when Rick Sherlund, an influential analyst at Nomura, said it’s likely.

  From Jay Yarow at Business Insider (h/t @soonerstocks):

  Inside Microsoft, Sherlund is well-respected as one of the few analysts that really understands the company.

  In his report today, he says it’s likely that Alan Mulally, the CEO of Ford, will be named as Microsoft’s CEO by December.

  While internal candidates like Stephen Elop and Tony Bates are being kicked around, Sherlund says he does not believe they are seriously in the running.

  He says other top candidates likely include Boeing CEO James McNerney, Jr. and ex-Motorola COO Edward Breen. Those are two names we’ve never heard before.

  Additionally, he reports Microsoft has been trying to woo Paul Martiz, a former Microsoft employee who was running VMWare.

  Sherlund says Mulally/Maritz would be a dream team. Maritz would be Microsoft’s head of software/products and Mulally as CEO/operator. If it helps, think of Tim Cook and Jony Ive. A similar division between operator and visionary.

  Furthermore, Sherlund thinks MSFT should sell off Bing and Xbox, buy out Ballmer’s stock for $12 billion, and finally:

  Build out Azure, the cloud platform that rivals Amazon.

  Make sure its enterprise software works across platforms. Office needs to work on Android and iOS to compete with Google’s apps which are growing.

  Skype and Yammer are not being taking advantage of. Microsoft should do more with both.

• Microsoft Breaks $38
  Eddy Elfenbein, November 6th, 2013 at 12:11 pm

  For the first time in 12 years, Microsoft ($MSFT) is trading north of $38 per share. (I should mention their gigantic $3.08 per share dividend in 2004.)

  

  The latest word is that MSFT had narrowed down its list of candidates to be new CEO to five names. Alan Mulally is on the list but I don’t think he’s a serious contender.

• Cognizant’s CEO on CNBC
  Eddy Elfenbein, November 6th, 2013 at 10:05 am

• Morning News: November 6, 2013
  Eddy Elfenbein, November 6th, 2013 at 6:15 am

  China’s Leaders Confront Economic Fissures

  Euro Zone Money Markets Returned to Growth in Second Quarter

  U.K. Production Rises More Than Forecast on Factory Rebound

  24-Hour General Strike Shuts Down Services Across Greece

  Brent Crude Traders Claim Proof BFOE Boys Rigged Market

  The House GOP Dials a Wrong Number on the Chained CPI

  Toyota Raises Profit Forecast After Abe Helps Weaken Yen

  Twitter Raises Price Range for Its I.P.O.

  Samsung Elec Vows More Aggressive Investment, Targets Tablets

  ING to Complete Restructuring in 2016 Ahead of Schedule

  Office Depot Announces Third Quarter 2013 Results

  Bitcoin Is Going On An Astronomical Tear

  Here’s How Companies Are Using Their Massive Piles of Cash

  Roger Nusbaum: Helaine Olen (Kind Of) Takes Down Dave Ramsey

  Credit Writedowns: Financial Obligations Rising for Renters, Falling for Homeowners

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• DirecTV Earns $1.28 Per Share
  Eddy Elfenbein, November 5th, 2013 at 8:00 am

  DirecTV ($DTV) just reported Q3 earnings of $1.28 per share, which was 26 cents more than consensus. In the U.S., DirecTV added 139,00 subscribers which doubled expectations. This is happening at the same time that Time Warner and Comcast are hemorrhaging subs.

  “DirecTV didn’t give customers any reason to cancel in terms of blackouts or anything like that,” said Brean Capital analyst Todd Mitchell. “DirecTV has been good at picking up customers after blackouts.”

  Shares of DirecTV rose 2.5 percent to $66 in trading before the market opened.

  ISI analyst Vijay Jayant said the low churn could be because of the company’s exclusive National Football League Sunday Ticket package, which lets DirecTV customers watch out-of-market games every Sunday. Promotion for that product ramped up in the third quarter.

  Net income attributable to DirecTV was $699 million, or $1.28 per share, compared with $565 million, or 90 cents share, a year earlier.

  Excluding a fee settlement and other special items, earnings came to $1.13 per share, which beat the analysts’ average estimate by 12 cents, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

  Revenue rose 6 percent to $7.88 billion, narrowly exceeding analysts’ estimates of $7.84 billion.

  In Latin America, DirecTV added 260,000 subscribers, while StreetAccount was looking for 371,900.

• Cognizant Beats and Raises Guidance
  Eddy Elfenbein, November 5th, 2013 at 7:29 am

  Nice quarter for Cognizant Technology Solutions ($CTSH). The company earned $1.13 per share which was three cents more than expectations. Quarterly revenues rose 21.9% to $2.31 billion, $50 million more than consensus.

  Best of all, CTSH raised full-year guidance from $4.32 to $4.37 per share. Full-year revenue is expected to be at least $8.84 billion, which is an increase of 20.3% over last year.

  “We delivered yet another quarter of industry-leading growth that was broad-based across our portfolio of industries, services and geographies,” said Francisco D’Souza, Chief Executive Officer. “The sheer velocity of change in the industries we serve is driving the C-suite to challenge the status quo and rethink their business models to be relevant for the future. Our investments across multiple horizons of growth position us well to deliver differentiated value as we partner with clients in this journey.”

  “Our performance during the quarter was stronger than anticipated due to a faster ramp up in demand for outsourcing services and strong discretionary spend on consulting and technology services,” said Gordon Coburn, President. “Our continuous reinvestment in our business continues to help us strengthen our capabilities to address our clients’ dual mandate of driving greater performance in their current businesses, while positioning them better for future success.”

• Morning News: November 5, 2013
  Eddy Elfenbein, November 5th, 2013 at 6:11 am

  BOJ Struggles to Convince on 2% As Abenomics Shine Fades

  EU Trims 2014 Eurozone Growth Forecast to 1.1%

  Italian Banks Are Near Their Saturation Point on Government Debt

  China Premier Warns Against Loose Money Policies

  Vivendi Agrees €4.2 Billion Deal with Etisalat for Maroc Telecom

  Fed’s Bullard: $1 Trillion a Year QE Pace ‘Torrid’

  Gold Bug Schiff Counters Goldman on First Drop Since 2000

  Gas and Food Prices Have Hit Their Lowest Levels of the Year

  Twitter IPO More Expensive Than Facebook Without Profits

  BlackBerry Comeback Hampered by Vanishing Cash

  Gross Loses World’s Largest Mutual Fund Title to Vanguard

  SAC Agrees to Plead Guilty to End Insider-Trading Case

  J&J to Pay $2.2 Billion in Drug Marketing Penalties

  Jeff Carter: The Key To Startup Success

  Joshua Brown: Lifestyle ETFs and Investment Products Based on Belief Systems

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