Archive for 2013

  • Damn It Feels Good to Be a Stock Picka
    , November 4th, 2013 at 5:30 pm

    Reuters notes that now is a good time to be a stock picker. While active managers usually lose to the market, it’s not happening this year. Of U.S. fund managers, 57% are beating their benchmarks this year. That’s their best showing in four years.

    Implied correlations – a measure of how closely the performance of individual stocks mirrors that of the index itself – have fallen to their lowest since October 2007 after peaking in 2011, according to a research note from Cantor Fitzgerald. That means that instead of the returns of most stocks clumping close to the index returns, there is a much broader spread on how individual shares are performing.

    That’s a sign that investors are picking winners and losers. It also suggests the bull market – which has carried the S&P nearly 170 percent higher since March 2009 – is starting to show its age. The S&P 500 has set 33 new highs this year after failing to reach record levels since 2007. Now there are fewer beaten-down stocks that offer the chance for a quick pop higher.

    Instead of searching for screaming bargains, fund managers are turning their focus to well-run companies that have sustainable advantages and may hold their value during a downturn, however unlikely that may seem at the moment.

    Of the S&P 500, the most stocks are positive YTD since at least 1980. This rising tide has lifted a heckuva lot of boats.

  • Is the Small-Cap Rally Already Over?
    , November 4th, 2013 at 12:54 pm

    The Russell 2000 has outperformed the S&P 500 for a remarkable 14-and-a-half years. The index reached a low relative to the S&P 500 on April 8, 1999. It’s interesting to see how the little guys were largely left behind in the big rally of the late 1990s.

    Ever since then, the Russell has consistently outperformed the broader market. If the S&P 500 had kept pace with the Russell, it would be over 3,600 today. The most recent relative performance high came on October 1 of this year.

    Since then, the small-caps have badly lagged and it got much worse last week. The Russell 2000 has underperformed the S&P 500 for the last six days in a row. Historically, these outperformance/underperformance cycles have run on for several years.

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  • JPMorgan Raises Price Target on Cognizant
    , November 4th, 2013 at 11:09 am

    From Barron’s:

    Indian IT services provider Cognizant (CTSH) is scheduled to report its third-quarter earnings tomorrow.

    J.P. Morgan raised its Q3 revenue estimate by $4.5 million to $2.27 billion on strong rupee and solid Q3 results already reported by Cognizant’s peers. Here are analysts Tien-tsin Huang and Puneet Jain:

    [Tata Consultancy Services] TCS and [Infosys] INFY reported solid upside in C3Q revenue, driven by strong discretionary spending. Encouragingly, growth was broad based at peers, which bodes well for CTSH.

    We expect a nice beat in C3Q results, relative to the company’s revenue guidance (of $2,250M+) and consensus estimate of $2,256M.

    The broker expects Cognizant to raise its 2013 guidance:

    We expect the company to raise its FY13 revenue growth guidance from 19% to 20%.

    The $100 price target implies 18 times J.P.Morgan’s 2015 EPS estimate, or 20.8 times the broker’s 2014 estimate.

    UBS is more cautious, setting a $92 price target, or 18.3 times their 2014 earnings.

    Cognizant last traded at $87.8, giving the JPM price target a 14% upside.

  • Morning News: November 4, 2013
    , November 4th, 2013 at 6:50 am

    ECB’s Asmussen Says ESM Should Be Last Port of Call For Banks

    EU Moots Funding Backstop For Non-Euro Zone Banks

    What British Business Wants From a Reformed Europe

    2015 Will Be Worse For Obamacare Than Its 2014 Rollout, A Result Of New Burdens That The White House Is Saddling Onto Insurers

    Gas Prices Are Declining, And It’s Turning Into Real Wealth Gains For Americans

    Here’s How Every Sector Has Performed Compared to the Overall Stock Market

    Twitter Debut Seen Setting the Tone for Social-Media Valuations

    HSBC Profit Rises 30% on Cost Cuts as Currency Trades Probed

    BlackBerry Bidder Faces Deadline to Seal Deal

    Samsung Ready to Slowly Lift Veil to Investors

    Alcatel Seeks $2.7 Billion After Stock Doubles Under Combes

    Riding the Hashtag in Social Media Marketing

    Here Are The American And European Companies With Incredible Track Records Of Raising Their Dividends

    Jeff Miller: Weighing the Week Ahead: Time for a Year-End Rally?

    Howard Lindzon: Here Comes The Crash…This Time I am Serious About the Bubble…and This Week’s ‘Stocks and Scotch’ Video/Podcast…

    Be sure to follow me on Twitter.

  • Frankenstein: Summary & Analysis by Thug Notes
    , November 3rd, 2013 at 4:03 pm

  • War of the Worlds 1938
    , November 1st, 2013 at 4:14 pm

    Seventy-five years ago this week, 23-year-old Orson Welles produced “The War of the Worlds.” Here’s the original broadcast.

  • Another Winning First Day of the Month
    , November 1st, 2013 at 11:06 am

    On the first trading day of the month, the S&P 500 has rallied 16 times in the last 22 months — and we’re up again today.

    This would also be the sixth month in a row where the market rallied on the first day of the month after falling on the last day of the month.

    Going back to June 4, 2007 through yesterday, the S&P 500 has gained 14.12% (not dividends, just the index). The combined return on just investing on the first trading day of the month was 10.06%. The rest of the time was just 3.69%. As recently as three weeks ago, that last number would have been negative. That means the entire capital gain of the S&P 500 came on just the first trading day of each month.

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  • October ISM = 56.4
    , November 1st, 2013 at 10:05 am

    This morning’s ISM report came in at 56.4. That’s the strongest report since April 2011.

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  • Ford Has Its Best October Since 2004
    , November 1st, 2013 at 10:00 am

    From MarketWatch:

    Ford Motor reported a 14% rise in U.S. vehicle sales for October to 191,982 units, from 168,456 vehicles a year ago. Retail sales climbed 15% to 142,487, making that the best October since 2004, the car maker said Friday. Sales of passenger cars jumped 19%, while those of utility vehicles rose 9% and truck sales gained 14%. Ford Fusion and Fiesta posted their best-ever October sales, and F-Series topped 60,000 sales for the sixth straight month. The last time Ford sold more than 60,000 trucks for six consecutive months was 2006, it said. Still, vehicle sales fell shy of analysts’ expectations of a 15.5% jump to 193,988 units, Overall U.S. car sales are forecast to climb to 15.4 million in October from 15.2 million in September, according to a MarketWatch poll. Ford shares were up 0.4% in early trading.

    A bit below expectations but still good.

  • Moog Earns 96 Cents Per Share
    , November 1st, 2013 at 8:16 am

    This morning, Moog ($MOG-A) reported earnings of 96 cents per share which matched estimates. This was for their fiscal fourth quarter. For the entire year, Moog earned $3.50 per share which is up 5% from last year. Their backlog is up to $1.3 billion.

    Moog reiterated its forecast for the new fiscal year of earnings ranging between $3.90 and $4.10 per share. The midpoint is a 14% increase over last year. John Scannell, Moog’s CEO said, “Fiscal ’13 will be remembered as the year of restructuring and write-offs. Looking past these adjustments, our fiscal ’13 operational performance was actually up on fiscal ’12 and we look forward to further improvements in fiscal ’14.“

    Here are some details of the quarter.

    Aircraft Controls sales for the year crossed the billion dollar mark for the first time. Sales of $1.1 billion were up 10%. Commercial aircraft sales were very strong, up 20%. Total military sales were $596 million, up 4%, on K-46 tanker development, F-35 production and aftermarket sales. Military aftermarket sales were $231 million, 8% higher.

    In the fourth quarter, Aircraft Controls sales of $276 million increased 9% from the same quarter last year. Commercial revenues increased 23% as production rates for aircraft continue to ramp up. Military aircraft sales were down slightly, at $146 million, on slower OEM deliveries. Military aftermarket sales were marginally higher at $62 million.

    Space and Defense sales of $396 million for the year were 10% higher. Sales of controls for spacecraft, payloads and space exploration programs increased 28%, driven by acquisitions and NASA program sales. Defense sales were 5% lower as program deliveries slowed. Security product sales were $48 million. For the fourth quarter, Space and Defense sales mirrored the trend for the year.

    Industrial Systems had revenues for the year of $592 million, a 7% decrease from last year. Wind energy sales were down 38% from a year ago as demand in China and Europe declined. Industrial automation sales were down 3%, with most of the underlying markets experiencing softness. Sales for simulation and test equipment were stronger, up 6%. Non-renewable energy product sales were 3% higher. Industrial Systems sales in the fourth quarter were up 2% at $153 million.

    Components segment sales were $415 million for the year, up 11%. The growth was in energy, industrial and medical markets with aerospace and defense sales unchanged. Sales for the quarter were a record $105 million. Both the year and fourth quarter sales reflected higher energy and industrial sales because of the Tritech and Aspen Motion Technologies acquisitions.

    Medical Devices generated sales of $147 million for the year, up 5% from the year previous on higher pump and administration set sales. For the quarter, sales in Medical Devices of $39 million were up 9% from a year ago.