Archive for January, 2026

• Morning News: January 7, 2026
  Eddy Elfenbein, January 7th, 2026 at 7:09 am

  Eurozone Inflation Falls to ECB Target

  German Unemployment Holds Steady

  China Sells the World on Its Duty-Free Island, Amid a $1 Trillion Trade Surplus

  China Escalates Feud With Japan, Probes Chipmaking Material

  Here’s How Japan Can Hit Back at China’s New Export Controls

  The World Needs a Lot More Copper. But Will There Be Enough Supply?

  LNG Market Moves From Famine to Feast on Wave of New Supply

  Trump Says Venezuela to Send Oil Worth Up to $2.8 Billion to US

  With Maduro Out, Wall Street Chases After Venezuela’s Riches

  No Crash, No Problem? Good Luck With That

  Tests of Fed’s Independence Intensify as Trump Seeks to Reshape Institution

  Steve Moore and Larry Kudlow Owe Trump Straight Talk On the Dollar

  Why Bonds Now Look Like a Better Bet Over Stocks and Gold

  US Bank Profits Surge On Investment Banking Jump In Fourth Quarter

  Goldman Sachs Tops Global M&A Rankings with $1.48 Trillion in Deals

  JPMorgan Cuts All Ties With Proxy Advisers in Industry First

  US Mortgage Rates Fall to 6.25%, Lowest Since September 2024

  Slashing Foreign Aid Risks Millions of Lives

  Vaccine Changes Will Make American Children Suffer Again

  Hiring in the Age of AI Means Proving You Need a Human

  Samsung Rises to New Highs With No End in Sight for Memory Crunch

  Mobileye Acquires Startup Mentee Robotics for $900 Million

  The $160,000 Mechanic Job That Ford Can’t Fill

  Warner Bros. Dismisses Latest Paramount Bid as Inadequate

  Media Startup Semafor Raises $30 Million in New Funding Round

  SpaceX Is Under a Lot of Pressure Now. It’s Not Alone

  Musk’s Grok AI Generated Thousands of Undressed Images Per Hour on X

  Hilton, ICE and the New Playbook for Handling an Online Crisis

  Why Every Decent Restaurant Has a Product in the Grocery Store Now

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• CWS Market Review – January 6, 2026
  Eddy Elfenbein, January 6th, 2026 at 6:16 pm

  (This is the free version of CWS Market Review. If you like what you see, then please sign up for the premium newsletter for $20 per month or $200 for the whole year. If you sign up today, you can see our two reports, “Your Handy Guide to Stock Orders” and “How Not to Get Screwed on Your Mortgage.”)

  I always look forward to the start of the new trading year. It’s a fresh start and all the YTD performance numbers are set back to zero. It’s a time to leave behind last year’s mistakes and look ahead to profits in the new year.

  So far, the stock market seems to be in a very happy mood in 2026. The S&P 500 rallied on the first three trading days of the new year, and today the index set a new all-time record closing high of 6,945.82. Before today, the last closing high was set on Christmas Eve.

  

  Not only did the market rally on the first three days of this year, but our Buy List outperformed the market on all three days as well.

  The events in Venezuela haven’t been enough to rattle the markets. Indeed, one of our buy List stocks, SAIC, the defense contractor, got a nice lift on the news. It’s already up 8% for us this year. We also had new highs today from stocks like Heico and Thermo Fisher.

  Historically, this has been a good time of year for the stock market. From December 20 to February 18, the S&P 500 has gained an average of 3.6%. That’s close to one-third of the market’s annual gain coming in less than one-sixth the time.

  Another of our new stocks on the Buy List, Comfort Systems USA, is already up 10.8% this year. Not bad for three days, but we know not to celebrate too soon. The market can and will change its mind very quickly.

  The market news has been fairly quiet recently, but that will soon change. Now that the government shutdown is over, we can get back to regular economic reports. This Friday, the government will release its jobs report for December, although the last few labor reports were not very encouraging.

  The simple fact is that the labor market has been slowing down. The unemployment rate is currently at a four-year high, even though it’s still at a historically low level. The unemployment rate reached its low point nearly three years ago.

  Earlier today, we got the ISM Manufacturing Index for December, and it showed that U.S. manufacturing fell to a 14-month low. The Index fell to 47.9 for December. That’s the lowest level since October 2024. Manufacturing now makes up 10% of the U.S. economy.

  The other big news headed our way will be the start of the Q4 earnings season. As usual, many of the big banks will go first. JPMorgan Chase and the Bank of New York Mellon are set to report on Tuesday, January 13. JPM often sets the tone for the entire banking sector.

  By the way, JPM’s CEO Jamie Dimon made a cool $770 million last year. That works out to 28 cents per share on a $330 stock. I’m not smart enough to tell you if that’s too high or too low, but the stock gained 34% last year. JPM’s annual profit will probably come in around $20 per share.

  On Wednesday, we’ll get earnings reports from Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo. The financial sector has been unusually strong lately, and I say that cautiously. Except for a few bursts, finance stocks haven’t been popular in several years. Since late October, the S&P 500 Financial ETF is up by more than 8% while the S&P 500 ETF is up less than 1%.

  

  Our first batch of Buy List earnings reports probably won’t be until the third week of January. Companies often need a little more time to compile their Q4 reports. That’s why the Q4 earnings season tends to be more spread out compared with the other quarters.

  Tomorrow, we’ll get an early look at the jobs report when ADP releases its private payrolls report. Wall Street expects a gain of 48,000. Also on Wednesday, we’ll get reports on job openings and factory orders. Job openings have fallen over the last three years, but the losses may have stabilized. We’ll know more soon.

  On Thursday, we’ll get initial jobless claims plus reports on productivity and the trade deficit. The big jobs report is on Friday. Wall Street expects to see a gain of 73,000 jobs which is pretty good. Expectations are for the unemployment rate to fall by 0.1% to 4.5%.

  I’m also paying close attention to average hourly earnings. Economists are looking for a gain of 0.3%. If that’s close to accurate, then it tells me that the government shutdown didn’t have the impact I feared it would have.

  Inflation has also been calm. The next CPI report will be out on January 13. The January Federal Reserve meeting is still three weeks away, and it increasingly looks like the Fed is ready to hold off on lowering rates. Not only that, but the odds of a rate cut in March are looking iffy.

  I want to share this chart with you because it might be the most frustrating chart about the recent market. The chart below shows the S&P 500 ETF (in black) against the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (in blue).

  

  You can see that the overall market has soundly beaten the Dividend Aristocrats over the last three years. The market has more than tripled the Aristocrats. Actually, this chart understates the impact because the Dividend Aristocrats are inside the S&P 500.

  The Dividend Aristocrats are companies that have raised their dividend every year for the last 25 years. Many have raised their dividend every year for 40 or 50 years.

  I think of the Dividend Aristocrats as a good proxy for high quality companies. When I use the words “blue chip stocks,” this is what I mean. Many index makers have a “quality” factor for their indexes but I’m never exactly sure what metrics they use. With the Dividend Aristocrats, I have a good idea.

  I find it alarming that high quality stocks have lagged the market by so much over the last three years. I certainly expect periods of underperformance, but this long stretch is very unusual.

  This chart also shows us just how much the market has been influenced by a small number of lower quality stocks. The sad fact is that being safe and prudent has not been the most profitable strategy.

  It’s not that conservative investors have lost money, but they’ve been left out of the biggest gains in a thriving bull market. I’m concerned that investors make take away the wrong lesson, but it’s hard to argue with success.

  I’m not about to predict a resurgence of high-quality stocks, but these stocks can only lag the market for so long.

  That’s all for now. The jobs report is due out Friday morning. I’ll have more for you in the next issue of CWS Market Review.

  – Eddy

• Morning News: January 6, 2026
  Eddy Elfenbein, January 6th, 2026 at 7:04 am

  China Slaps Export Controls on Japan Military for Taiwan Remarks

  In China, a Debate About Political Power Ignites After Maduro’s Capture

  Snatching Maduro From Venezuela Was Illegal — and Damaging

  Venezuela Ushers in the Era of Trump’s ‘Donroe Doctrine’

  Trump’s Hint to Oil Executives Weeks Before Maduro Ouster: ‘Get Ready’

  Mystery Trader Garners $400,000-Plus Windfall on Maduro’s Capture

  Bets on Maduro, Jesus Reveal Promise and Risks of Prediction Markets

  Venezuela’s New Leader Is the Oil Industry’s Long-Time Ally

  Chevron’s Risky Bet to Stay in Venezuela May Now Give It an Advantage

  Citgo Is a Crown Jewel of Venezuela’s Oil Industry. Elliott Is Set to Reap the Benefits.

  Trump’s Venezuelan Gambit Holds Chance of Rising US Sway Over Crude

  Copper Surges to Fresh Record as Inventories ‘Locked in the US’

  Hilton Lands in DHS Crosshairs After ICE Agents’ Hotel Reservations Are Canceled

  The GOP Is Kidding Itself About the Economy

  Do Tariffs Cause Inflation? New Studies Offer Surprising Answer

  Sweeping Minimum-Wage Hikes Take Hold Across the Country

  The Fed’s Six Big Challenges in 2026

  The Cost of Inaction On Crypto Market Structure

  More Tax Revenue Is a Certain Path to Soaring National Debt

  Corporation for Public Broadcasting Votes to Shut Down

  Optimism About Nuclear Energy Is Rising Again. Will It Last?

  Nvidia’s $4 Trillion Stock Rally Faces More Threats Than Ever

  Nvidia Details New A.I. Chips and Autonomous Car Project With Mercedes

  Tesla Is Swapping Its EV Crown For Even More Promises

  Hyundai Unveils New Humanoid Robot for Work in Car Factories

  Dell’s Underperforming PC Business Seeks a Comeback

  Steel Dynamics, SGH Bid $8.8 Billion to Acquire BlueScope Steel

  AB InBev Buys Back $3 Billion Stake in U.S. Metal Container Facility to Boost Supply Security

  How Corporate Security Has Changed a Year After UnitedHealth Killing

  Make Drug Prices Great Again Without Price Controls

  The Curious Cult of Aldi

  Victoria’s Secret Faces Valentine’s Day Test

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• Morning News: January 5, 2026
  Eddy Elfenbein, January 5th, 2026 at 7:06 am

  Trump’s Ouster of Maduro Shows America’s New World Order Is Here

  Switzerland Freezes Assets of Maduro and People Close to Him

  Trump Now Has His Very Own Oil Empire

  Chevron, US Oil Stocks Rally as Trump Vows Venezuela Revival

  Trump’s Venezuela Oil Revival Plan Is a $100 Billion Gamble

  Reviving Venezuela’s Flow of Oil Will Not Come Easily or Cheaply

  Not Your Father’s Oil Market: Geopolitical Shocks Lack Impact

  Why Oil Prices Are Barely Moving After the Venezuelan Incursion

  China Needed Oil. Venezuela Needed Cash. Their Deal Faces a Turning Point.

  Xi Faces Higher Costs in Taiwan Than Trump Does in Venezuela

  Venezuela Trade Disruptions to Stay Localized, Analysts Say

  Why Markets Can Sit Out the Drama in Venezuela

  Safe-Haven Gold Propelled to One-Week High by US-Venezuela Conflict

  Yellen Warns of Growing ‘Fiscal Dominance’ Threat to US Economy

  Calls to Weaken the Dollar Are the Stuff of Economic Ignorance

  Slow Growth Since 1971? The Floating Dollar Just Begs For Attention

  Small-Time Crypto Investors Are Facing Violent Attacks

  Treasuries Advance Ahead of Key US Manufacturing Numbers

  Dimon’s $770 Million Windfall Shows How Banking Is Great Again

  Supreme Court Increasingly Favors the Rich, Economists Say

  The Winners and Losers From 2026’s Mix of Tax and Benefit Cuts

  Contemplating the Difficult Labor-Market Conditions for U.S.-Born Men

  ‘Hectocorns’ Are Just One AI Flashpoint for 2026

  Ten Unexpected Things 2026 May Bring

  Simulation or Not, Musk’s Surreal Year Could Push Him to $1 Trillion Heights

  US Auto Sales Poised to Slip as Middle-Class Buyers Retreat

  27 Million Fewer Car Trips: Life After a Year of Congestion Pricing

  Zillow’s CEO Is Ready for Another Slow Year in the US Housing Market

  Apollo Leads $1.2 Billion Investment in Brad Jacobs’ QXO

  Saks in Talks for $1 Billion Bankruptcy Loan to Keep Doors Open

  First GLP-1 pill for Obesity from Novo Nordisk Launches in the U.S.

  America Is Falling Out of Love With Pizza

  Dutch Bros Is Out-Starbucksing Rivals With the Sugariest Drinks

  More People Are Lifting Weights. It’s Changing Gym Culture.

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• Morning News: January 2, 2026
  Eddy Elfenbein, January 2nd, 2026 at 8:15 am

  The 14 Global Trends That Will Shape the Climate in 2026

  Orsted Files Legal Challenge to Trump’s Wind-Farm Suspension

  Trump’s Lasting Damage Will Be the Steady Erosion of Norms

  Work, Invest, Inherit: How Americans Can Actually Move to Europe

  Britain’s FTSE 100 Hits 10,000 Mark in Strong Start to 2026

  The Global Economy Must Adapt to Avoid Tumult This Year

  Economists Whiffed Tariffs Precisely Because They Whiffed Inflation

  US Treasuries Extend Gains After Posting Best Year Since 2020

  Can Kalshi Take On Inflation, Too?

  Wall Street Sees Another Banner Year for Markets. Could Anything Stop It?

  Here’s (Almost) Everything Wall Street Expects in 2026

  China’s Multi-Asset Funds Dominate Top Performers as Tech Soars

  3 Ultra-High-Yield Dividend Stocks That Are Screaming Buys in 2026

  Rationally Exuberant Markets Will Be Risking AI Mishaps in 2026

  Tech Companies Land at Las Vegas Eager to Show AI Transformation

  Tech Giants Are Racing to Embed A.I. in Schools Around the Globe

  Kara Swisher on the Blind Spot That Broke Big Tech

  Bezos, Catz, Dell Cashed Out Billions as Top Insider Sellers of 2025

  Threat of California Billionaire Tax Draws Criticism From Ultrawealthy

  The Condo Market Hasn’t Been This Bad in Over a Decade

  The Year of the $100 Million House

  BYD Hits Sales Goal, Set to Topple Tesla as Biggest EV Maker

  Tesla Closes Out Brutal Year in Europe With Sales Declines

  The Year the Newsletter Business Reached a Fever Pitch

  List of Companies Laying Off Employees in January

  Ozempic Users Actually Spend More Dining Out. Smart Restaurants Are Adapting

  How Kraft Heinz Lost Its Lock on Mac and Cheese—and American Shoppers

  The World Cup Is Nike’s to Lose Versus Adidas

  Can the Most Indebted Team in Global Soccer Fix Its Finances?

  Repeat Moviegoers Help Hollywood Eke Out a Slightly Better 2025

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• Morning News: January 1, 2026
  Eddy Elfenbein, January 1st, 2026 at 7:08 am

  South Korea’s Exports Stronger Than Expected in December; Set Annual Record in 2025

  China Calls EU Carbon Border Tax Unfair, Warns of Counter-Moves

  How Japanese Scallops Became a Pawn in Diplomatic Tensions With China

  US Sanctions Chinese Companies, Tankers With Venezuela Links

  Trump Delays New Tariff Hike on Furniture, Kitchen Cabinets

  Trump Abandons National Guard Push in Chicago, LA, Portland

  The Year America’s Economic Edge Evaporated

  There Is a Way Out of This Mess

  Dollar Posts Worst Year Since 2017 With More Fed Cuts Expected

  US Stocks Slouch Into Year End With No Sign of Santa Claus Rally

  Crypto Soared in 2025 — and then Crashed. Now What?

  Year End Sees Record Borrowing from Fed’s Standing Repo Facility

  Bridgewater’s Flagship Pure Alpha Surges 33% in 2025, Outperforming Biggest Hedge Fund Peers

  These Are the ETFs to Watch in 2026

  Warren Buffett Officially Retires as Berkshire Hathway’s CEO

  The $358 Billion Question for the New CEO of Berkshire Hathaway

  Clairvoyance Is Great for Hedge Fund Returns

  Mortgage Rates at 2025 Low Give Homebuyers Momentum in New Year

  Technology Can Help Us Lead More Moral Lives — If We Let It

  The US-EU Rift Over Social Media Rules Will Only Get Wider in 2026

  Tesla Sales Outlook Darkens Despite Musk’s Self-Driving Euphoria

  The Price Honeybees May Pay for Biofuel

  Think 2025 Was a Big Year for Health News? Fasten Your Seat Belts

  Hasbro’s Secret Weapon for Training Its Next Leaders: A Board Game

  You Can Now Hire Someone to Return All Those Unwanted Gifts

  Repeat Moviegoers Help Hollywood Eke Out a Slightly Better 2025

  The ‘Stranger Things’ Finale Is the Escapism We Need

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